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NCAAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 8

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 15, 2024 6:05 am
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NCAAF
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 15

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Posted : October 15, 2024 8:29 am
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NCAAF
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 14

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Posted : October 15, 2024 8:31 am
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday’s games

Troy
@ South Alabama (-12.5)
Troy (1-5, 0-2)
Trojans are 0-5 vs I-A teams, with home losses by 21-17 points.
Troy has 2 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
Trojans have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Frosh QB Kilcrease is 25-43/379 passing (3 TD’s, no INTs).
Trojans are giving up 31 ppg vs I-A opponents.

Troy was 23-5 SU last two years; they’re 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs I-A teams TY
Last 2+ years, Troy is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Trojans are 13-5 ATS in Sun Belt games (0-2 TY).
Under is 3-1 in Troy’s last four games.
Trojans are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.

South Alabama (2-4, 1-1)
USA is 1-4 in I-A games (only win 48-14 at App State).
Jaguars lost only I-A home game, 52-38 to North Texas.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 1,306 yards (12 TD’s, one INT).

USA is 6-8 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Last 4+ years, South Alabama is 15-19 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars’ last four I-A games stayed under the total.

Troy won/covered last six series games.
Trojans are 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six visits to Mobile.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sun Belt home favorites are 5-5 ATS in conference play.

Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee State (-10)
Kennesaw State (0-5, 0-1)
Kennesaw lost its first three I-A games by 12-24-21-39 points.
Owls also lost 27-13 to UT-Martin, a I-AA team.
Kennesaw has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Owls have 33 starts back on offensive line, added six transfers.
Soph QB Bryson is 57-111/616 passing, with 2 TD’s, 6 INTs.

All four of their I-A losses were by 12+ points.
Kennesaw is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Owls were outgained by 236.3 yards/game in their I-A tilts.
Kennesaw is 2-9 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in their I-A games this season.

Middle Tennessee (1-5, 0-2)
MTSU is 0-5 vs I-A teams, outscored 218-69 (44-14 average).
MTSU beat a I-AA team 32-25, but was outgained, 341-328.
MTSU has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Blue Raiders have 26 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Vattiato has started 18 games.

MTSU is 7-9 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Mason is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite.
MTSU is minus-8 in turnovers in its I-A games.
MTSU is 5-13 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
Blue Raiders are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Three of their last four games went over.

These teams haven’t met recently.
Favorites are 7-4 ATS in C-USA conference games.

Louisiana Tech (-11) @ New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech (2-3, 1-1)
Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams; they beat MTSU 48-21 last week.
Bulldogs are minus-7 in turnovers in their four games.
Tech has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tech has 79 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Bullock is 48-68/557 passing (6 TD, no INTs).

Under Cumbie, Tech is 3-11 ATS on the road (1-1 TY).
In his career, Cumbie is 4-8 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
LW, Tech ran ball for 222 yards (averaged 69.7 in previous 3).
Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.
Under Cumbie, Tech is 2-5 ATS coming off a win.

New Mexico State (1-5, 0-3)
Aggies are 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 42.6 ppg.
Aggies have given up 288.6 rushing yards/game in I-A games.
NM State has 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Aggies have 115 starts back on offensive line.
Former JC QB Awad is 29-70/363 passing (3 TDs, 3 INTs).

Aggies lost two I-A home games, 30-24 (Liberty), 50-40 (New Mexico).
Last 2+ years, NM State is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Aggies are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss (0-4 TY).
NM State has completed less than half its passes in all five games.
Aggies did run for 285-206 yards in their last two games.

Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven series games.
Tech won last three visits to Las Cruces, by 14-21-4 points (1-2 ATS)
Last three meetings stayed under the to
tal.
Favorites are 7-4 ATS in C-USA conference games.

 
 
Posted : October 15, 2024 8:35 am
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NCAAF
Weather Report
Wednesday, October 16

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Posted : October 16, 2024 9:21 am
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NCAAF
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 15

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Posted : October 16, 2024 9:24 am
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday’s games
Western Kentucky
@ Sam Houston State (-3)
Western Kentucky (4-2, 2-0)
WKU won its two C-USA tilts, 49-21 MTSU, 44-17 UTEP.
WKU’s losses: 63-0 at Alabama, 21-20 at Boston College.
Hilltoppers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
WKU has 91 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Veltkamp is 94-135/1,147 passing (11 TD’s, 5 INTs).

WKU is 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
WKU is 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 conference games.
Hilltoppers are 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
WKU outgained BC 355-279 in their loss in Boston Sept 28.
WKU’s other I-A win was 26-21 (+2.5) over Toledo.

Sam Houston State (5-1, 2-0)
Bearkats won last four games, scoring 31-31-40-41 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 282 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.

Sam Houston is 2-7 ATS last 9 games as home favorites (2-0 TY).
Bearkats are 14-15 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Bearkats were down 22-0, rallied to beat Texas State 40-39 on Sept 28.
Sam Houston is 5-1 ATS in last five games coming off a win.
Bearkats won their two home games, 31-13/31-11

WKU (-11) beat the Bearkats 28-23 at home last year.
Hilltoppers outgained Sam Houston 465-357, were minus-2 in turnovers.
C-USA home favorites are 4-2 ATS in conference games.

Florida International (-7) @ Texas-El Paso
FIU (2-4, 1-1)
FIU gave up 16-10 points in wins, 31-38-45-31 in losses.
Panthers have a 45-42 loss to I-AA Monmouth.
FIU has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
FIU has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Jankins started 11 games last year.

FIU is a road favorite for first time since 2019.
In his career, MacIntyre is 5-4 ATS as road favorite.
Last 4+ years, FIU is 0-6 ATS as a favorite anywhere.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-10 ATS in conference games.

Texas-El Paso (0-6, 0-3)
Miners lost I-A games by 33-18-10-20-27 points, scoring 14.4 ppg.
UTEP has been outrushed 1,145-466 in its I-A games.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.

UTEP is 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog (0-1 TY).
UTEP is 18-13 ATS in last 30 conference games.
Miners are 12-10 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Last two games, Miners allowed 517-482 TY, in C-USA games.

UTEP won last two series games, 27-14/40-6.
Panthers lost two of last three visits to El Paso.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Favorites are 7-4 ATS in C-USA conference games.

 
Posted : October 16, 2024 9:26 am
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NCAAF
Weather Report
Friday, October 18

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Posted : October 18, 2024 8:24 am
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday’s games
Florida State
@ Duke (-3)
Florida State (1-5, 1-4)
Florida State is 1-5, with only win 14-9 at home over Cal.
Last four games, FSU was held to 13-12-14-16-13 points.
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Glenn is 23-45/228 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)

Seminoles was outgained 410-284 by Cal, in their one win.
Florida State was held under 300 TY in all six games.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 4-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 5-10-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Seminole games this season.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.

Duke (5-1, 1-1)
Duke lost its last game, 24-14 at Georgia Tech.
Duke won its other ACC game, 21-20 over North Carolina.
Blue Devils have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Murphy started 2 games at Texas last year.

Duke is 9-3 ATS in last 12 as a home favorite.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2022, Duke is 11-7 ATS in ACC games.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Duke’s coach and QB last year both bolted el$ewhere for big $$$.

Florida State won last 17 series games.
Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
FSU won its last seven visits to Durham (5-1-1 ATS)
ACC home favorites are 7-8 ATS in conference games.

Oregon (-27.5) @ Purdue
Oregon (6-0, 3-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34-31-32 points in its I-A wins.
Last three games, Ducks gained 546-431-477-496 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).

Oregon is 2-0 on road (49-4 at Oregon St, 34-13 at UCLA)
Under Lanning, Oregon is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Ducks are 13-8 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 14-6 ATS in conference games.
Ducks are 15-4 ATS in last 19 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 17-8 ATS coming off a win.

Purdue (1-5, 0-3)
Purdue lost 50-49 in OT LW, after trailing 27-3 in 3rd quarter.
Purdue is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 46.8 ppg.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
Boilers are 8-14 ATS in last 22 conference games.
Purdue gave up 550+ TY in three of five I-A games.
Purdue is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Purdue’s I-A games.

These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in conference games.

Oklahoma State @ BYU (-9.5)
Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3)
OSU lost its three Big X games, 22-19/42-20/38-14.
Cowboys gave up 232+ rushing yards in 4 of 5 I-A games.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)

OSU is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
Oklahoma State is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 Big X games.
Cowboys are 17-11-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma State gave up 456-559-558 yards in its three Big X games.
Cowboys scored 39-45 points in their two I-A wins.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

BYU (6-0, 3-0)
BYU won its first two Big X games, scoring 38-34-41 points.
BYU won/covered all five of its I-A games.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Junior QB Retzlaff started four games LY.

Last 2+ years, BYU is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
BYU scored 34+ points in four of five I-A games.
In his career, coach Sitake is 23-32 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, BYU is 9-8 ATS coming off a win (5-0 TY).
BYU won 38-9/41-19, in its only I-A home games.
Three of their last four games went over the total.

LY, Oklahoma State (-16.5) beat BYU 40-34 at home.
Cowboys outgained BYU, 503-327
Big X home favorites are 8-10 ATS in conference games.

Fresno State (-3) @ Nevada
Fresno State (3-3, 1-1)
Fresno lost its last two games, 59-14/25-17.
Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Fresno has 106 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Keene started 11 games last year.
Skipper is Fresno’s interim coach this season.

Fresno split its two MW games, 38-21 at New Mexico, 14-59 at UNLV
Bulldogs scored 48-38 points in their two I-A wins.
Bulldogs scored 10-14-17 points in their I-A losses.
Fresno is 9-7 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in last 10 Mountain West games.

Nevada (3-4, 0-1)
Nevada lost 3 of last 4 games, giving up 35-37 points in last two,
Five of their six I-A games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Wolf Pack has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Nevada has 70 starts returning on offensive line.
Junior QB Lewis started ten games last season.

Nevada allowed 441-562 TY in splitting last two games.
Nevada ran for 353 yards in LW’s 42-37 win over Oregon State.
Wolf Pack is 3-6 ATS last nine games as a home underdog (2-0 TY).
This season, Nevada is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 32-25 ATS in MW games.

Fresno won last three series games, by 2-27-18 points.
Bulldogs are 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Reno.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.

 
Posted : October 18, 2024 8:27 am
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NCAAF Weather Report Saturday, October 19

 
Posted : October 19, 2024 6:30 am
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8

Saturday’s best 13 games
Nebraska
@ Indiana (-6.5)
Nebraska (5-1, 2-1)
Nebraska allowed total of 34 points in its four I-A wins.
Nebraska won its only road game, 28-10 at Purdue.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola threw fo4 1,345 yards in his five I-A games.

Nebraska’s only loss was 31-24 at home to Illinois.
Nebraska is 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
As college coach, Rhule is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 5+ years, Cornhuskers are 8-13-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their I-A games.

Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Hoosiers are 3-0 in league games, scoring 42-42-41 points.
Last three games, Indiana gained 510-510-529 yards.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Rourke started 33 games at Ohio U.

Indiana is 15-7 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 14-5 ATS in conference games.
Indiana is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 games coming off a win.
Indiana’s last four games went over the total.

Nebraska won two of three meetings as league rivals.
Under was 2-1 in those games.
Big 14 home favorites are 8-9 ATS in league games.

Auburn @ Missouri (-4.5)
Auburn (2-4, 0-3)
Auburn is 0-3 in SEC, losing by 10-6-18 points.
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Thorpe has 37 career starts.

Last 3+ years, Auburn is 6-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 18-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 6-5 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Freeze is 28-22 ATS coming off a loss.
Auburn is minus-11 in turnovers this season.

Missouri (5-1, 1-1)
Mizzou scored 35 ppg in its four I-A wins.
Tigers only loss was 41-10 at Texas A&M.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 107 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Cook has started 26 games.

Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 9-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 19-17 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 14-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
Under Drinkwitz, Tigers are 12-15-1 ATS at home.

Auburn won last three series games (only won was since 2017)
Over was 2-1 in those games.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.

South Carolina @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina lost tough 27-25 game at Alabama last week.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.

Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-13 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Carolina split two road games (31-6 at Kentucky/27-25 at Bama)

Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291-237 yards in its SEC games (1-2).
Sooners were held to 15-3 points in losses (25-15 Tennessee/34-3 Texas)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)

Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers this year.
Under is 4-2 in their games this season.

These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big X home teams are 9-13 ATS in conference games.

South Carolina @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina lost tough 27-25 game at Alabama last week.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.

Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-13 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Carolina split two road games (31-6 at Kentucky/27-25 at Bama)

Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291-237 yards in its SEC games (1-2).
Sooners were held to 15-3 points in losses (25-15 Tennessee/34-3 Texas)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)

Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers this year.
Under is 4-2 in their games this season.

These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big X home teams are 9-13 ATS in conference games.

Alabama @ Tennessee (-3)
Alabama (5-1, 2-1)
Alabama is 2-1 in SEC games, giving up 34-40-25 points
Crimson Tide scored 35+ points in five of six games.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.

Last six years, Alabama is 0-2 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Alabama is 10-8-1 ATS in its last 19 SEC games.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
Alabama is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.

Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)
Tennessee is 2-1 in SEC games (average total, 38.3).
Tennessee is giving up 10.7 ppg this season.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 22-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-15 ATS in SEC games.
Vols were held to 25-14-23 points in their SEC games.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.

Alabama won 16 of last 17 series games.
Crimson Tide is 9-2 ATS in last 11 visits to Knoxville.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in conference games.

Michigan (-3.5) @ Illinois
Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
Michigan scored 27+ points in its wins, 12-17 in losses.
Wolverines lost their only road game last week, 27-17 at Washington.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).

Michigan is already playing their third QB this season.
Last three games, Michigan has a total of 231 passing yards.
Wolverines are 19-11-3 ATS in its last 33 conference games.
Michigan is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Four of their last five games went over the total.

Illinois (5-1, 2-1)
LW, Illinois won 50-49 in OT; they led 27-3 in third quarter.
Illini’s only loss was 21-7 at Penn State.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.

Under Bielema, Illinois is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 15-14 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-13 ATS in conference games.
Last two weeks, Illinois gave up 239-239 rushing yards.
Illinois is minus-4 in turnovers, in its three Big 14 games.

Michigan won six in row, 12 of last 14 series games.
Wolverines are 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Illinois.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.

USC (-7) @ Maryland
USC (3-3, 1-3)
Trojans lost three of their first four Big 18 games.
USC is 0-2 on road (27-24 Michigan/24-17 Minnesota)
USC’s three losses are by 3-7-3 points.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).

USC is 0-6 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
In his career, Riley is 8-19-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Trojans are 11-23 ATS in last 34 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 33-39-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Riley is 5-9 ATS coming off a loss.
USC is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Maryland (3-3, 0-3)
Terps lost their two conference games, 27-24/42-28/37-10.
Maryland gave up 7-13-20 points in their wins.
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Edwards is 156-228/1,740 passing (11 TDs, 3 INT).

Under Locksley, Maryland is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2020, Maryland is 7-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Locksley, Terps are 19-31 ATS in conference games.
Terps were minus-4 in turnovers LW (+11 in first five games).
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.

These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in league games.

Colorado @ Arizona (-2.5)
Colorado (4-2, 2-1)
Colorado won three of its last four games.
Colorado gained 418+ TY in its wins, 260-359 in losses.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.

Sanders is 8-3 ATS as an underdog with Colorado, 4-3 on road.
Since 2014, Colorado is 19-26-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sanders, Buffs are 8-4 ATS in conference games.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 6-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Colorado’s last three games went over the total.

Arizona (3-3, 1-3)
Arizona is 1-3 in Big X games, giving up 31-28-41 points in losses.
Wildcats scored 61-23 points in I-A wins, 7-22-19 in losses.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.

Arizona is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Brennan is 11-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Wildcats are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 33-25-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four games.

Arizona is 9-3 in its last 12 games vs Colorado.
Buffs are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tucson.
Over is 10-3 in last thirteen series games.

Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5)
Baylor (2-4, 0-4)
Baylor is 0-4 in Big X, giving up 38-34-43 points last 3 games.
Bears’ only I-A win was 31-3 at home over Air Force.
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Robertson started four games last year.

Under Aranda, Baylor is 9-8 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Aranda, Bears are 13-11 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 19-22 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +1 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
Baylor’s last three games went over the total.

Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0)
Texas Tech scored 28+ points in its wins, 16 in its loss (37-16 @ Wazzu)
Tech scored 66-30-44 points in its I-A home games.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (12 TDs/2 INTs this year)

Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 11-9-1 ATS in Big X games.
Last two games, Tech gave up 426-301 passing yards.
Tech is 31-34-1 ATS in its last 66 Big X games.
Four of Tech’s five wins were by 8 or fewer points.

Baylor is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Texas Tech.
Bears are 1-7 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Lubbock.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Georgia @ Texas (-5)
Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Georgia split two true road games: 34-31 at Alabama, 13-12 at Kentucky.
Last three games, Dawgs scored 34-31-41 points.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.

Georgia is an underdog for first time in its last 50 games.
Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
Georgia is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.
Georgia is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Georgia allowed 300+ PY in two of last three games.

Texas (6-0, 2-0)
Texas is 6-0, with all six wins by 19+ points.
Texas has outscored opponents 259-38 this season.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers is 78-108/890 passing (9 TD’s, 3 INTs)

Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 16-14 ATS in conference games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-12 ATS coming off a win.
Texas held all six opponents under 300 total yards.
31-12 win at Michigan is closest game they’ve played.

Texas (+12) upset Georgia 28-21 in a bowl game six years ago.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.

LSU (-1.5) @ Arkansas
LSU (5-1, 2-0)
LSU won its last five games, after a 27-20 loss to USC.
LSU won its only true road game, 36-33 (-6.5) at Ole Miss.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier is completing 64% of passes (18 TD’s, 6 INTs)

Under Kelly, Tigers are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 31-29-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 9-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 37-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
LSU’s last three games stayed under the total.

Arkansas (4-2, 2-1)
Arkansas won three of its last four games.
Razorbacks were minus-5 in turnovers in their losses (+3 in wins).
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.

Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
Arkansas’ last three games stayed under the total.

LSU is 7-1 SU/3-4-1 ATS in last eight meetings.
Tigers won last four visits (2-2 ATS) to Arkansas.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Underdogs are 17-4 ATS in SEC conference games.

Kentucky (-1.5) @ Florida
Kentucky (3-3, 1-3)
Kentucky scored 31-41-20 points in wins, 6-12-13 in losses.
Kentucky won its only road game, 20-17 (+15) at Ole Miss.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.

Since 2019, Kentucky is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Wildcats held 5 of 6 opponents to 288 or fewer total yards.
Kentucky is 15-13 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
Wildcats are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Kentucky games this season.

Florida (3-3, 1-2)
Florida scored 45-24 points in I-A wins, 17-20-17 in losses.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz is OFY; frosh QB Lagway has 5 TD passes, 4 INT’s.

Under Napier, Florida is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Napier is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 17-25-1 ATS overall.
Under Napier, Florida is 10-9 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 3-2 in Florida’s I-A games.

Kentucky won last three meetings, by 19-10-7 points.
Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Kentucky won two of last three visits to the Swamp.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

UNLV (-7.5) @ Oregon State
UNLV (5-1)
Rebels are 3-0 SU on road, winning by 20-3-16 points.
UNLV scored 59-41-50 points in its last three games.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Williams started 40 games at I-AA Campbell.

Under Odom, UNLV is 13-6 against the spread.
In his career, Odom is 6-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four games, UNLV is +10 in turnovers.
Under Odom, UNLV is 6-2 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three games, Rebels allowed 316/355/461 passing yards.

Oregon State (4-2)
Oregon gave up 49-42 points in its losses, 17.3 ppg in I-A wins.
Last three games, Beavers scored 38-39-37 points.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.

Oregon State is 1-4 ATS last five games as a home underdog.
Beavers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Beavers are 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Last 3 games, Oregon State ran ball for 341-251-214 yards.
Beavers’ last four games went over the total.

These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Mountain West favorites are 5-4 ATS, in non-conference games.

TCU @ Utah (-4.5)
TCU (3-3, 1-2)
TCU gave up 35-66-30 points in their three losses.
TCU gave up 289-238-207 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.

TCU is 4-11 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Dykes is 22-22 ATS as road underdog.
Under Dykes, TCU is 5-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Horned Frogs threw for 356+ yards in three of last four games.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games this season.

Utah (4-2, 2-2)
Utah lost its last two games, 23-10/27-19 after a 4-0 start.
Utes scored 22+ points in their four wins
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Wilson is 68-122/830 passing; QB Rising is OFY.

Utah is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
Utah is 16-13 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Utes are 0-2 when they run ball for less than 170 yards.
Since 2016, Utes are 45-29 ATS in conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Utah’s I-A games.

These teams haven’t met since 2010.
Big X home favorites are 8-10 ATS in conference games.

 
Posted : October 19, 2024 6:33 am
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