NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Saturday 9/7/19

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Ohio U. at Pittsburgh (-5.5/54), 11 a.m. ET, ACCN: The Bobcats struggled to stop Rhode Island on a few occasions last week and failed to cover, so this will be quite the test on the road at Heinz Field. An offensive line that replaced three key starters held up, but they too will come under fire against the Panthers, who will looking to avoid an 0-2 start after losing to Virginia since they’ll play Penn State and UCF next and would likely be headed for an 0-4 start if they’re upset here. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett missed a lot of throws against the Cavaliers and was intercepted twice in the second half, so he could be under fire if he struggles again. Pitt’s offensive line and receivers also struggled in its ACC opener and you best believe that senior QB Nathan Rourke and a disciplined Bobcats team that has a shot at a 10-win season will take advantage if they struggle again. The Ohio money line is coming off at +180 and early action dropped the line down from 6.5.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-28/56), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Legendary Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s swansong began in dubious fashion as Boston College racked up 35 points in an upset win in Chestnut Hill but he’ll be matched with a familiar face since ODU run-game coordinator Bryan Stinespring ran the o-line and recruiting for Va Tech for over a decade. This final home opener for him may mandate that he replace standout sophomore rush end TyJuan Garbutt, who was injured on a block against BC. DE Zion Debose is expected to be sidelined a while and a couple of others are banged up, so we’ll get to see what kind of defensive depth the Hokies are working with after a rough ACC opener. The Monarchs (+27) beat Virginia Tech 49-35 last season in one of the season’s biggest upsets but return only a handful of key players on both sides of the ball and narrowly beat FCS member Norfolk State 24-21 last week.

UAB (-9.5/46.5) at Akron, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN: The Blazers looked lifeless in their season-opening win over Alabama State and narrowly escaped 24-19 despite being listed as a 40-point favorite at some books. UAB played vanilla and then found itself in a battle it wasn’t expecting, so we’ll likely get a much better indication of what to expect from its group coming off last season’s 11-win and first-ever bowl victory, but there’s definitely concern. Most of last season’s key contributors are gone and the win over the Hornets featured an abundance of brutal miscues. UAB was 1-for-13 on third down. The Zips were trounced 42-3 at Illinois as dual threat QB Kato Nelson found very little space to run and spent most of the day running for his life. Clearly, first-year Akron head coach Tom Arth has his work cut out for him as he takes over for Terry Bowden, who had been present for every home opener since 2012.

Army at Michigan (-22/47), 12 p.m ET, FOX: The Black Knights barely survived Rice 14-7 and take the field in Ann Arbor for their biggest challenge until November’s visit to Air Force and December’s date with Navy, so expect them to take their shot. Senior QB Kelvin Hopkins ran and threw for over 1,000 yards last season, so his arm gives Army a dimension it typically wouldn’t have and gives it a puncher’s chance to hang around with the bigger, more talented Wolverines if they can effectively utilize the element of surprise. Remember, Army took Kyler Murray-led Oklahoma to overtime last season as a 30-point underdog and hung 70 points on Houston in last December’s Armed Forces Bowl. The Wolverines weren’t as stifling as they were expected to be against Middle Tennessee, surrendering 21 points. That total is higher than any surrendered last season with the exception of games against Notre Dame, Ohio State and the bowl loss to Florida. Blindly betting the under here is awfully tempting given the presence of Army and Jim Harbaugh, but with Shea Patterson and Dylan McCaffrey splitting snaps and Michigan pushing tempo, that’s no longer a gimme.

Vanderbilt at Purdue (-7/55.5), 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Commodores generated little offense against Georgia in a 30-6 loss, but head coach Derek Mason diffused any talk of a quarterback controversy and will stick with Ball State transfer Riley Neal over backup Deuce Wallace. Between blanket coverage from the Dawgs and some awful snaps from new center Grant Miller that had him on his heels all night, Neal found no rhythm and will now be asked to generate some momentum on the road as he returns to his home state. The Boilermakers will be attempting to bounce back after blowing a double-digit lead at Nevada due to an awful, mistake-filled second half. Nick Holt couldn’t get his pass defense to get a stop when he needed it most on a windy night. Purdue opened 0-3 last season and will host TCU next week before settling in for Big Ten play, so we’re going to learn a lot about who it is over the next two weeks. DT Lorenzo Neal is likely out again due to a knee injury that has kept him out of camp and top corner Kenneth Major is questionable after leaving the Nevada loss. Boilers QB Elijah Sindelar threw for 423 yards and four scores, so there’s reason to be encouraged despite the early hiccup. Electric receiver Rondale Moore isn’t going to blow any more games making mistakes on punt returns.

Rutgers at Iowa (-20/49.5), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Scarlet Knights gave up 21 first-quarter points to UMass before settling in and clamping down, but they wouldn’t be able to bounce back from that type of start if they start slowly in Iowa City. Texas Tech transfer QB McLane Carter is a playmaker. He’ll make mistakes, but the lefty is the best passer Rutgers has had in years. Isaih Pacheco and Raheem Blackshear are powerful runners who will be able to get forward if the line opens holes. Rutgers hasn’t won on the road since 2017 and have won only one of their last 15 Big Ten roadies, so this will be a huge challenge. The Hawkeyes are on another level than the Minutemen but only beat Rutgers 14-7 when these teams met last in ’16 and visit Iowa State next week. They trailed Miami (Ohio) 7-3 in the second quarter before getting going last week and have to overcome injury-related absences along the offensive line and at corner.

Syracuse at Maryland (-1.5/57), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Orange didn’t put a lot on tape last week that the Terps coaching staff could use outside of Dino Babers doing pushups and waving at Liberty’s Hugh Freeze up in the press box. QB Tommy DeVito threw two costly picks and showed a lack of chemistry with his receivers that has to be a concern as the level of competition increases. The Terps obliterated overmatched Howard 79-0, so this will be the first real look at what they can do under new head coach Mike Locksley. Virginia Tech transfer QB Joshua Jackson has weapons around him and plenty of experience against ACC defenses, so we’re going to learn a lot about both programs after this one.

West Virginia at Missouri (-13.5/62.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Kelly Bryant put up big numbers in his debut but the Tigers couldn’t hold a lead at Wyoming and ultimately lost a 37-31 shootout in Laramie. Mizzou’s next five games will all be at home, which could make for an uncomfortable situation for Barry Odom if his team’s level doesn’t pick up. The Tigers are 5-19 when they fail to score 40 points since he took over for Gary Pinkel, so there’s immense pressure to get things turned around defensively. West Virginia will be playing its first FBS foe under new head coach Neal Brown, but the Mountaineers were definitely tested by FCS power James Madison. Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall will be a competent replacement for Will Grier, but West Virginia will rely on its ground game much more than it did under Dana Holgorsen and has four competent backs led by senior leader Kennedy McKoy.

Cincinnati at Ohio State (-15.5/54), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Luke Fickell returns home with bad intentions as he brings the Bearcats into Columbus. The former Ohio State nose guard turned defensive coach never coached will be facing his alma mater for the first time since leaving and has a reasonable shot of snapping the Buckeyes’ 41-game winning streak against in-state opponents. QB Justin Fields looked sharp early in his Ohio State debut before the offense sputtered, but this Bearcats defense is far superior to what he saw against the Owls. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder can make plays with his arm and his feet, while RB Michael Warren is a horse who will make it his mission to outperform JK Dobbins. The Bearcats defeated UCLA without star safety James Wiggins (torn ACL), but his absence will be felt here. It’s going to be on Fickell’s schemes and Ridder’s playmaking to overcome not having his impact. Cincinnati is +600 on the moneyline at Westgate.

Bowling Green at Kansas State (-14.5/48.5), 12 p.m. ET: Both of these teams got off to fast starts under new head coaches and feature dynamic dual threat quarterbacks. Darius Wade, who started at Boston College and in ’17 and spent last season at Delaware, debuted for Bowling Green against Morgan State and threw for three scores to get Scot Loeffler his first victory. The Falcons outgained the FCS-member Bears 620-70, so we’ll see how they fare fighting an uphill battle on the road. Transfer QB Matt McMahon, another BC transfer who was expected to start ahead of Wade, still hasn’t been cleared to play by the NCAA. The Wildcats won easily in Chris Klieman’s debut, routing Nicholls State 49-14. Skylar Thompson, who split the gig the past few years, has a chance to take the next step as a junior and shined in his debut in a new system that will allow him to showcase his passing. After such dominant openers, we’ll get a better feel for these teams after this one.

Northern Illinois at Utah (-23.5/58.5), 1 p.m. ET, Pac-12: Former Huskies running back Thomas Hammock has taken over as head coach after Rod Carey’s departure to Temple and led NIU to a 24-10 win over FCS member Illinois State. The game was tied 3-3 at the break and Cal grad transfer Ross Bowers has controversially replaced returning junior starter Marcus Childers, a former MAC Freshman of the Year who played hero in last year’s conference title game. It wouldn’t be surprising if a divided group arrives in Salt Lake City, which wouldn’t bode well for the Huskies’ chances of pulling an upset against a defense expected to be among the nation’s best. Utah looked the part in hammering BYU, getting a pick-six from rover Francis Bernard and excellent play from the secondary that included Tareke Lewis shining opposite standout Jaylon Johnson. NIU’s projected team total has been set at 10.5..

South Florida at Georgia Tech (-6/61.5), 2 p.m. ET, ACCN: The Bulls were destroyed at home by Wisconsin 49-0 while the Yellow Jackets landed a few punches against Clemson but were thoroughly dominated. Blake Barnett will have top slot guy Johnny Ford back and hopes to find an early rhythm that eluded what was expected to be a fast-paced USF offense. Georgia Tech was able to move the ball some on Clemson before sputtering around the goal line. It has replaced Paul Johnson’s triple-option with a shotgun spread and will ultimately start junior Lucas Johnson ahead of Tobias Oliver, but they’re expected to go with the sophomore runner here. Last year’s 49-38 loss down in Tampa saw Georgia Tech surrender a pair of crucial kickoff returns for touchdowns, so we’ll see how a new-look special teams holds up.

Afternoon Delights

Nebraska (-4/65) at Colorado, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX: The ‘Huskers sputtered offensively in the opener against South Alabama, struggling up front and scoring just two offensive touchdowns in a 35-14 where the defense and special teams outscored Scott Frost’s high-octane attack. QB Adrian Martinez has vowed to play better and RB Maurice Washington, suspended for a half and in the midst of a revenge porn court case that has been pushed back another week, is expected to see more action alongside Georgia Tech transfer Dedric Mills, who scored both Nebraska offensive touchdowns. Colorado pulled away from Colorado State to capture another Rocky Mountain Showdown. QB Steven Montez looks healthy and took advantage of the attention the Rams paid to star WR Laviska Shenault in order to help score 52 points. The Buffs won the first installment of this rivalry since 2010 in Lincoln last season on a Montez-Shenault hookup with 1:06 left. Colorado is just 2-7-1 against the ‘Huskers in Boulder since 1991.

Texas A&M at Clemson (-17.5/64), 3:30 p.m ET, ABC: Kellen Mond looked extremely sharp against Texas State and is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the country, so if he’s able to find a rhythm, the Aggies can supply headaches as the rare SEC double-digit dog in a non-conference game. They’ll need Trevor Lawrence to struggle the way he did against Georgia Tech after he was visibly off, throwing two interceptions and missing various throws. Tigers slot WR Amari Rodgers is expected to suit up six months after tearing his ACL, so he’ll add a dimension to an already explosive passing attack. Travis Etienne dominated the opener with a career-high 205 yards on the ground but will go up against an A&M defense that held Texas State to eight rushing yards and did a nice job last year in nearly engineering a home upset, losing 28-26 last Sept. 8. The top six tacklers from that group are gone, but talented defensive coordinator Mike Elko does bring a talented group into Death Valley.

Central Michigan at Wisconsin (-35/51.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: The Badgers blanked South Florida and could blank another opponent as the Chippewas visit Camp Randall. Over the past four years under head coach Paul Chryst, Wisconsin has won its first home game by an average score of roughly 51-6. The Chips’ team total is around 7.5 despite the presence of senior RB Jonathan Ward, who racked up over 200 yards against Albany and has done damage against Power-5 schools before. Tennessee transfer Quinten Dormady debuted with 285 passing yards and two scores last week. Former Florida head coach Jim McElwain will learn a lot about his new team here. Jonathan Taylor should have another big game given his form and how poorly they’ve stopped the run, but the x-factor to who notches this cover will likely be Badgers QB Jack Coan, who should have one-on-one opportunities he’ll need to capitalize on to convince dubious Badger nation that he should be playing ahead of prized freshman Graham Mertz.

Charlotte at Appalachian State (-22.5/53.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+: The Mountaineers have won 41 games over the past four seasons, but that success got Scot Satterfield the Louisville job and he took most of the coaching staff with him. Talented offensive mind Eli Drinkwitz has taken over, inheriting 16 starters who helped open the season with a blowout win. App State is heavily favored here with Charlotte undergoing a facelift in Year 1 of the Will Healy era. The 33-year old wants to push tempo and figures to take some risks, so this will be a measuring-stick game for the 49ers prior to next week’s home date against UMass. The 49 points they scored last week in beating Gardner-Webb were a program-high since moving up to the FBS level. Appalachian State won last season’s meeting 45-9 and will have a week off to prepare for statement game at North Carolina.

Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-16.5/52), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Golden Eagles have posted three consecutive winning seasons and are expected to be one of Conference USA’s top teams this season, so they’re hoping to be around to steal this come fourth quarter. Louisiana hung around with the Bulldogs for the better part of four quarters last week, but that game was played in New Orleans. The atmosphere should be much friendlier in Starkville, where they’ll be getting a look at Penn State senior grad transfer Tommy Stevens, who won the QB job from Keytaon Thompson in the offseason but will have to continue fighting him off since the junior who had long served as Nick Fitzgerald’s backup took his name out of the transfer protocol and returned to practice this past week. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham led the nation in completion percentage last season. The Eagles are 1-4 against SEC foes under head coach Jay Hopson but have covered the number in three of those games.

Illinois (-20.5/59) at UConn, 4 p.m. ET, CBSSN: The Fighting Illini put together one of last Saturday’s most impressive performances in destroying Akron 42-3, overpowering the Zips up front. Having Michigan transfer Brandon Peters under center was a big deal, but the defense Lovie Smith called and how effectively his unit carried out his orders was what stood out most. The Illini did lose RB Mike Epstein to a season-ending knee injury. Reggie Corbin will now have more of a workload and should have a huge season, health permitted. He’s expected to play despite banging up a hip against the Zips. UConn held on to beat Wagner 24-21 as Randy Edsall debuted new coordinators on both sides of the ball in addition to starting QB Mike Beaudry, a Canadian who won a D-II title at West Florida in 2017. Illinois hasn’t won a non-conference road game in 12 years but is a heavy favorite that has taken a lot of action in Vegas, moving the line from 20 to where it stands now.

UT-San Antonio at Baylor (-25.5/57), 4 p.m. ET: The Bears bounced back from a 1-11 mark in Matt Rhule’s first year to pulling off back-to-back upsets of Texas Tech and Vanderbilt in order to record a winning season and a Texas Bowl title. They could take a major step forward and compete for a spot in the Big 12 title game since Oklahoma and Texas come through Waco late in the season, but it’s going to take Charlie Brewer developing into one of the league’s top passers and an offensive line that has historically struggled to keep the better defensive teams from disrupting the team’s offensive rhythm. UT-San Antonio defeated the Bears two seasons ago as 15-point favorites and just missed covering in a 37-20 home loss at the Alamodome last year. Redshirt sophomore Frank Harris won the QB battle and had an impressive debut against Incarnate Word, bouncing back from an ACL tear last spring. The Roadrunners’ win at Baylor on their last trip into Waco remains their only victory over a Power-5.

New Mexico State at Alabama (-55/64), 4 p.m. ET, SECN: Tua Tagovailoa will likely out of the game by halftime, so covering this substantial spread will hinge on true freshman Taulia Tagovailoa, who handed off to Jerome Ford on his late TD that ultimately buried Duke bettors. He’ll follow sophomore Mac Jones, who moved the chains against the Blue Devils and is likely to follow Tua. There’s not a lot to this one other than betting on Alabama’s overwhelming talent or expecting some complacency with the Tide’s first road game coming up next week. The Aggies lost 58-7 to Washington State last week and now heads south to collect a check here. New Mexico’s worst loss last season came in a 60-13 loss at Utah State.

San Diego State at UCLA (-7.5/45.5), 4:15 p.m. ET, Pac-12: With games against Oklahoma and Washington State following this one, Chip Kelly is going to be in a world of trouble on the heels of last year’s 3-9 run. UCLA started 0-5 last season and was shut down in a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati on Aug. 29. Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed some throws, but there’s still hope that the light will turn on for him in Kelly’s system. The Bruins will have a few extra days of preparation but will have to deal with a San Diego State defense that shut out Weber State to bail out the offense in a 6-0 season-opening dud of a win. QB Ryan Agnew has returned, but his top three targets are gone. Top RB Juwan Washington is questionable with an ankle injry. The Aztecs have never beaten the Bruins, coming in 0-21-1. Rocky Long has won four of his last five games against Pac-12 schools outright.

UL-Monroe at Florida State (-21/63), 5 p.m. ET, ACCN: It looked like the Seminoles were indeed back for the better part of their first contest. If it hadn’t been for a pair of defensive touchdowns getting called back due to replay, they may have knocked the Broncos out. Instead, Boise hung around, overcome and then dominated upon taking the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. The ‘Noles didn’t score in the second half, which means they’ll have something to prove here regardless of what the score is at the break. James Blackman moved the offense, but new coordinator Kendal Briles is going to need to show more than he managed to in contributing to the meltdown. ULM lost its last game against a Power-5 70-21 at Ole Miss last season and fell in Tallahassee 42-10 in the final regular-season game of the ’17 season. The Warhawks handled Grambling 31-9 as former Ole Miss commit Josh Johnson finished with 173 yards on just 10 carries, scoring twice.
__________________

Bruce Marshall

Friday, Sept. 6
Matchup Skinny
Edge

WAKE FOREST at RICE...Wake 10-4-1 last 15 away from Winston-Salem, 14-5 as visiting chalk since 2015. Owls 7-3 as DD dog since LYm 6-1 getting 20 points or more.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at BOISE STATE... Boise a bit better as blue carpet chalk LY (3-3) but still just 16-35 last 51 in role. Herd 8-2 as dog past two seasons and has covered 7 straight away from home vs. non-CUSA teams.
Marshall, based on team trends.

Saturday, Sept. 7
Matchup Skinny
Edge

OHIO at PITT...Note that Solich a dog here, and he’s 10-2 as dog away from Athens since 2015, and 9-1 last ten vs. line against non-MAC away from home. Pitt 4-2-1 vs. line at Heinz Field since LY but 6-14 vs. spread as host previous three seasons.
Ohio, based on team trends.

OLD DOMINION at VIRGINIA TECH...Big revenge from ODU upset LY. Monarchs were 2-1 as DD dog in 2018 but 1-7 in role previous two years. Fuente 9-5 as Blacksburg chalk with VPI, though only 12-15 overall vs. line since 2017.
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on team trends.

UAB at AKRON...Blazers 10-4 vs. line LY, 18-9-1 since resuming football in 2017. Though just 2-3 as visiting chalk that span. Arth home debut for Zips., Akron though only 2-8 as home dog since 2014.
UAB, based on team trends.

ARMY at MICHIGAN...Army 14-8 as dog past four years, and has covered 6 of last 7 away West Point. Harbaugh 1-5 vs. spread last five hosting non-Big Ten.
Army, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at PURDUE...Derek Mason 5-10 as dog past two years, but 4-1 last five vs. spread as non-SEC visitor. Brohm 0-4 as home chalk LY.
Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at IOWA...Rutgers actually now on 6-game cover streak after UMass win. Ash 15-8 vs. line last 23 on board. Ferentz however 16-4-1 last 21 as chalk, and 12-3-1 last 16 on board.
Slight to Iowa, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at MARYLAND...Terps 10-3 vs. line in first two games the past six seasons under varieties of coaches. Md also now 6-2 vs. spread at home since 2018. Dino Babers 11-2 vs. spread last 12 away from Carrier Dome.
Syracuse, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at MISSOURI...Neal Brown was 10-4 vs. line as dog the past four years with Troy. Mounties 4-1 as visiting dog past three seasons Barry Odom 8-2 vs. points last 10 at Columbia.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at OHIO STATE...Fickell now 6-1 vs. line in first three games of season since taking over Bearcats in 2017. Also 7-4 as dog the past two years. Buckeyes just 15-16 as DD chalk at Big Horseshoe since 2016 but were 2-0 in role for Ryan Day LY.
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at KANSAS STATE...No more Jinks jinx at BGSU, Falcs were 11-25 vs. line last three seasons (Jinks ousted late 2018). Fals 4-10 as DD dog past two years. Loeffler’s challenge now. One role that didn’t work lately for Bill Snyder was home chalk (4-11 last four years), let’s see what Klieman can do.
Slight to Kansas State, based on BGSU negatives.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at UTAH...Kyle Whittingham 6-2-1 as DD chalk the past two years and 12-5 vs. points last 17 at Rice-Eccles. Now Hammock for NIU but under Carey, Huskies were 0-4-1 last five vs. non-MAC teams.
Utah, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH...If USF a dog note 3-1 in role on road past two seasons. Collisn closed his Temple run on 14-6-1 spread uptick but Jackets now on 5-11 spread skid.
Slight to USF, if dog, based on team trends.

TULSA at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU actually on 9-5-1 spread uptick entering 2019, and 8-4 last 12 as dog. Tulsa only 1-3 as road chalk last three years (0-0 LY).
Slight to San Jose State, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at COLORADO...Huskers haven’t played in Boulder since 2009. Frost covered last four and six of last 7 in 2018, also covered last four on road. Buffs just 3-10 last 13 vs. spread at Boulder, also were just 3-9 last 12 as dog under MacIntyre.
Nebraska, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M at CLEMSON...Jimbo has covered 4 of last 6 meetings vs. Dabo, including LY at Kyle Field. Ags 3-1 as dog LY, now 12-3 vs. spread since LY after Tex State win. Jimbo now 7-0 vs. non-SEC with Ags. Clemson no covers all three reg season vs. non-ACC LY.
Texas A&M, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN...McElwain closed Gator career on 9-15 spread skid. Chips 7-4 as road dog since 2017 and were 4-1 as DD dog LY. Badgers rather shocking 1-6 as home chalk in 2018.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on recent trends.

CHARLOTTE at APP STATE...App was 9-3-1 vs. line for Satterfield LY and 7-3-1 laying DD, let’s see what Drinkwitz can do. Mounties have won and covered five straight non-Belt games and routed 49ers 45-9 LY. First road game for Will Healy.
Appalachian State, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Moorhead 4-0 vs. line non-SEC reg season LY, but L in opener vs. ULL. Bulldogs also 5-1 as Starkville chalk LY and 8-2 vs. points non-SEC since 2017. Jay Hopson 7-3 as dog past two seasons and USM 4-1 vs. spread last five against SEC.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at UCONN...After non-cover vs. Wagner, UConn 2-11 vs. spread since LY, Edsall 2.0 now 7-18 vs. spread since 2017 with Huskies. Lovie not-too-bad 5-4 as chalk since taking over in 2016 compared to 10-18 dog mark.
Illinois, based on UConn negatives.

ARKANSAS STATE at UNLV...Ark State on 1-8 spread skid outside of Belt. Sanchez however only 10-15 vs. line at Sam Boyd, Rebs just 11-21 last 32 vs. number at home. If dog, note Sanchez 4-8 in role since 2016.
Slight to UNLV, based on team trends.

UTSA at BAYLOR...UTSA 6-‘15 last 21 on board. Roadrunners did win at Baylor in 2017, however. Matt Rhule just 1-5 as Waco chalk since taking over Baylor in 2017.
Slight to UTSA, based on Baylor chalk negatives.

NEW MEXICO STATE at ALABAMA...This is the sort of game that has troubled Bama. Saban just 2-5 vs. line last seven Game 2s, just 4-10 last 14 vs. spread hosting non-SEC foes. Can we trust NMSU? Ags only 2-7 as dog LY but were 10-8 getting DD previous three seasons.
Slight to New Mexico State, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UCLA... After Cincy loss, UCLA now 23-40 vs. spread since 2014. Bruins also 5-13-1 last 19 as chalk. Rocky Long on 3-12 spread skid, but is 6-2 last 8 as dog.
San Diego State, based on extended UCLA negatives.

ULM at FLORIDA STATE...Noles just 8-15-2 last 2 years vs. line, Taggart 2-4 as chalk LY. Matt Viator, however, on 6-13 spread slide entering this season.
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.

WYOMING at TEXAS STATE...Bohl covered last five a year ago, and was 13-4 last 17 as dog entering last season. Though Bohl no covers last four vs. Power 5 foes. Bohl 2-5 last 8 as DD dog. Tom Herman teams at UH and UT, however, 2-11-1 as DD chalk entering this season.
Slight to Wyoming, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at SMU...If SMU is favored in Metroplex war, note that Sonny Dykes is 0-4 as chalk since taking over Mustangs in 2017 Frisco Bowl. Mean Green, however, closed 2018 dropping last 6 and 8 of last 9 vs. spread. If UNT chalk note 3-7 mark in role LY. SMU has won and covered handily last two meetings in Dallas.
Slight to SMU, based on team trends.

BYU at TENNESSEE...Vols just 3-1s vs. spread at Knoxville since 2017, and 7-18 overall vs. spread past two years (5-8 LY for Pruitt). Also 2-8 as chalk since 2017. Cougs 9-2 as road dog since 2016.
BYU, based on team trends.

UCF at FAU...UCF on 11-4 spread run (10-4 for Heupel), also 8-2 last 10 as DD chalk. Knights 26-13-1 vs. line since 2016. Kiffin only 4-8-1 vs. spread since 2018, now 3-5 last 8 vs. spread away from Boca Raton.
UCF, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FIU...Tops were 4-1-1 as road dog LY but the Helton era did not start well with loss to UCA. FIU has covered last three in series and throttled WKU the last two meetings. Even after Tulane loss, Butch Davis brings a 15-7 spread mark last 22 into home opener.
FIU, based on team and series trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at KANSAS...Miles closed his LSU career on 22-33-1 spread skid. KU entered 2019 on 4-10 spread skid at home vs. non-Big 12. CC 5-3-1 as road dog since 2017.
Slight to Coastal Carolina, based on KU/Miles negatives.

LIBERTY at ULL...Cajuns 9-4-2 vs. line since Billy Napier debut LY, 8-1 last 9 vs. spread in reg season.
ULL, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU 16-25 as home chalk since 2012, no covers last seven overall at East Lansing. Dantonio 2-8 vs. spread last ten vs. Non-Big Ten at home. Broncos however only 4-10 last 14 on board and only 1-4 as dog LY.
Slight to Western Michigan, based on extended MSU negatives.

LSU at TEXAS...”Tom Herman as a dog” once more; Herman 8-2 as dog with Horns, 13-2 in role since 2015 with Houston and Texas. Orgeron 2-6 vs. spread last eight reg season vs. non-SEC.
Texas, based on Herman-as-dog marks.

TULANE at AUBURN...Gus 6-17-1 as Jordan Hare chalk since 2015. Auburn 9-20-2 as DD chalk past four years. Gus 1-6 vs. spread last 7 vs. non-SEC at home. Wave 6-1 vs. spread last six outside AAC,
Tulane, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at OLE MISS...Rebs now have dropped last six and 9 of last 10 vs. spread. Matt Luke however was 2-1 vs. line as chalk LY. Hogs, have covered six straight in what has been a wild series in recent years, but Chad Morris 0-4 vs. line as visitor LY.
Slight to Arkansas, based on series trends.

NEVADA at OREGON...Jay Norvell 8-5 last 12 as dog, but Pack just 1-5 last six vs. line non-MW on road. Cristobal just 5-10 vs. line with Ducks, who are also just 7-12 laying DD at Autzen since 2015.
Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

BUFFALO at PENN STATE...James Franklin just 4-6 last ten laying DD. Leipold 17-7-2 vs. spread since 2017, and Bulls 9-3-1 vs. points last 13 as visitor. Bulls 2-0 as DD dog since 2017.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at KENTUCKY...Cats 1-9 as home chalk since 2017 and 1-10 last 11 hosting non-SEC foes. EMU 14-2 last 16 as visiting dog, 20-3-1 last 24 overall as short!
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.

UTEP at TEXAS TECH... Miners actually 4-2 as road dog LY, though only 5-6 overall as short. Note Matt Wells 6-0-1 as home chalk with Utags and Red Raiders since LY, and Tech 7-1 laying DD since 2016.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at NORTH CAROLINA...Canes were just 4-7 the last two years for Richt laying DD. Heels had covered three straight in series prior to LY. Fedora was 6-3 as dog LY, and Mack now 1-0 in role this season.
Slight to UNC, based on extended series trends.

STANFORD at USC...If Shaw a dog note his 13-5 mark in role since taking over Tree in 2011. Stanford 10-4 vs. spread last 14 in series. Helton 4-10 vs. spread at Coliseum since 2017, 8-20 overall vs. spread last 28 on board.
Stanford, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.

CAL at WASHINGTON...Revenge for Huskies after 12-10 loss at Berkeley LY. Bears have covered five straight as a road dog for Wilcox and are 6-1 vs. spread last 7 as visitor. Petersen just 1-5 as home chalk LY and 3-8 as chalk overall, 4-11 last 15 in role.
Cal, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at FRESNO STATE...Gophers just 2-6-1 last nine as visitor. Fresno 21-6-2 vs. spread since Jeff Tedford took over Bulldogs in 2017 and 8-4 vs. line as host. Bulldogs also 8-2 vs. points non-MW for Tedford. Revenge for Dawgs from bitter loss LY.
Fresno State, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at HAWAII...Beavs not too bad 3-3 as road dog LY, though just 2-6 as DD dog. Rainbows, however, 4-15 as Aloha Stadium chalk since 2014.
Oregon State, based on team trends.

Patrick Everson

Clemson's opening odds tick up early for College Football Week 2 clash vs Texas A&M
Clemson running back Travis Etienne had 205 yards and three TDs in a Week 1 blowout of Georgia Tech.

The No. 1 Tigers opened as 18-point favorites at home in Week 2 vs. No. 11 Texas A&M.

Week 1 isn’t quite a wrap yet in college football, but it’s time to set our sights on a Week 2 with several noteworthy matchups. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for New Jersey-based online sportsbook PointsBet USA.

No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-18)

Perennial College Football Playoff contender Clemson got down to business quickly with an easy Week 1 victory. The Tigers (1-0 SU and ATS) put up two touchdowns in each of the first three quarters and hammered Georgia Tech 52-14, narrowly cashing as 37-point home favorites Thursday.

Texas A&M had no issues in its opener, either, though against a much less notable opponent. The Aggies (1-0 SU and ATS) dispatched Texas State 41-7, giving up a final-minute touchdown to barely cover as 33.5-point faves.

These two teams met last September, with host A&M rallying from a 21-6 deficit to nearly force overtime. The Aggies scored a last-minute TD to pull within 28-26, but the 2-point attempt failed and Clemson escaped as 12-point chalk.

“This season, things clearly are expected to be different in Death Valley,” Chaprales said, alluding to an 18-point opening line. “This is Clemson’s toughest two-game stretch, so one can reasonably expect this line to come down a bit over the course of the week, but not too far. The line waffled early from 18 to 17.5 and back to 18, so we will see how it progresses.”

By later Monday morning, the number actually progressed upward to Clemson -18.5.

No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 10 Texas Longhorns (+4.5)

Expectations are high at Texas for the 2019-20 season, and this SEC/Big 12 showdown could demonstrate whether that’s justified. The Longhorns (1-0 SU and ATS) opened with an easy 45-14 victory over Louisiana Tech laying 19 points at home Saturday.

Likewise, LSU had little trouble in Week 1 as it hopes to mount a charge against Alabama this year in the Southeastern Conference. On Saturday, the Tigers (1-0 SU and ATS) dispatched Georgia Southern 55-3 giving 27 points at home.

“The Longhorns are the underdogs as ‘GameDay’ heads down to Austin in this marquee matchup,” Chaprales said. “Neither team was really tested to open the season, but now, we can truly find out if Texas is back. There hasn’t been much action drawn on this one yet, but with such a big matchup on our hands, there should be an influx coming, especially with two incredibly public teams.”

No. 23 Stanford Cardinal at Southern California Trojans (no line)

Both these programs saw their starting quarterbacks get hurt in Week 1, but Southern Cal suffered the much more significant injury. JT Daniels tore his right ACL and meniscus in the second quarter against Fresno State on Saturday, and he will miss the rest of the year. The Trojans (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) went on to win 31-23 as 14.5-point home favorites, but will now field a freshman QB in Kedon Slovis.

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello exited Saturday’s home game with Northwestern after a hit to the head late in the first half, and his status is still undetermined. The Cardinal pulled off an extremely unlikely cover in that game, recovering a fumble for a touchdown with 20 seconds left in a 17-7 victory giving 6.5 points.

“The real, and most unfortunate, storyline here is Daniels’ devastating torn ACL that has knocked him out for the season,” Chaprales said. “What started out as a promising beginning has now turned into a potential nightmare for Clay Helton and the Trojans. But on the other side, Costello went down due to a very questionable hit up high. With both starting QBs injured, we do not have a line on this yet.

“Right now, we could see that number being around USC -3 to -4.5, but Costello’s status could greatly alter that. There’s still too much uncertainty.”

Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5)

Ohio State got out of the gate in a huge hurry under new coach Ryan Day, who took over for the retired Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) scored 28 first-quarter points against Florida Atlantic and coasted to a 45-21 victory laying 27 points at home.

Cincinnati could be a more formidable opponent than the opening line suggests, as the program is coming off one of its best seasons (11-2 SU last year). The Bearcats kept it rolling in the 2019-20 opener, topping UCLA 24-14 as 2.5-point home favorites, the second straight year they’ve beaten the Bruins.

“Respect has to be given to Cincinnati, as Luke Fickell has the Bearcats well ahead of schedule,” Chaprales said of the coach entering his third season. “This line could very well shift toward Cincy a small amount, as one can reasonably expect QB Justin Fields and the Buckeyes to be tested this week. This could be especially true if you put any stock into the fact that Fickell spent practically his whole career with the Buckeyes up until getting this job.

“If last week was any indication, people may have their eyes on this Bearcats squad.”

That said, the initial move on this line was toward Ohio State, to -17.