NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 1

Hot & Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt

Week of August 26th

With last week's piece focusing on what's now come and gone for Week of the NFL preseason, I'd like to bid adieu to the NFL for just a week. The first full opening week of college football is upon us this week, and Week 4 of the NFL preseason is just a week that's best to take off unless you are really into researching and reading up the bottom halves of every NFL team's potential depth chart. Instead, it's on to the collegiate world this week with the emphasis being on two specific conferences: the Pac-12 and the SEC.

These are two conferences that have been on opposite ends of the spectrum for the most part when in comes to discussing college football on the national stage the past few years, as the SEC is still the flag bearer for this sport in terms of overall depth, talent and churning out NFL-caliber players.

But chaos can be beautiful too, and while the Pac-12 gets called out for its parity and how they never have one/two really elite teams, once conference play gets going, Pac-12 games can be some of the most entertaining out there because of that same parity in regards to it being up in the air as to who will win.

Either way, there are some specific football programs from both conferences that have had good/bad runs in season openers the past few years, and they've drawn my eye for this week. And while trends are just simply a small piece of the entire picture, they can serve as a solid place to start in terms of game selection, so here are a few SEC/Pac-12 schools to hone in on as play on or against programs for this first game of the year.

Who's Hot

They'd better be wearing RED
Alabama (4-0 ATS)
Texas A&M (5-0 ATS)
Georgia (4-1 ATS)
Stanford (4-1 ATS)

Right off the bat I've probably got to make the distinction that Texas A&M actually wears maroon as to not upset Aggies fans, but that's a close enough shade to red for me to include them in this group. Besides, with a 5-0 ATS run going in season opener's the past five years, and a home game on Thursday coming up for Texas A&M as massive -33.5 point favorites vs Texas State, there is a Day 1 game for bettors to sink their teeth into further.

Furthermore, 'maroon' can be defined as a “brownish crimson” color which brings me to one of the other teams on this list in the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama has covered the number in each of their previous four season openers, and they've done so despite scheduling some 'supposed' tough opponents for themselves in that first game of a campaign. Louisville, Florida State, USC, and Wisconsin were all vanquished by Nick Saban's powerhouse program in season openers the past four years, and this week has Saban and the Tide laying 30+ against Duke. Considering Duke's in a bit of a transitional year with QB Daniel Jones moving on, bettors should probably not be afraid to lay all that chalk with Alabama this weekend. The spread has already been bumped a few points Alabama's way, and given that their average margin of victory against those quality foes in the past four season openers is still 32 points, blowing out a fresh-faced Duke team should be easily in the cards.

Of the other teams listed above, Georgia's laying 20+ on the road in a SEC rivalry game against Vanderbilt (who are on a 4-0 ATS run in season openers themselves) in a spot that might be best to stay away from, while a ranked Stanford team hosts a ranked Northwestern team (in coaches poll) is laying about a TD (-6.5) at home.

Stanford's going through a bit of a transitional phase this year too with Bryce Love having moved on, as it's on QB K.J Costello and a bunch of new faces to keep this proud program moving forward in the Pac-12. Given the schedule the Cardinal have – Northwestern, @ USC, vs Notre Dame only non-conference games – a SU and ATS win over the Wildcats later this week could propel Stanford on their way to one heck of a season. Recent history suggests we will get the best out of Stanford to start, and Northwestern as a fringe Top 25 team might be a little ambitious for Pat Fitzgerald's program.

Who's Not

The traditional 'basketball' schools
Kentucky (0-4 ATS)
UCLA (1-4 ATS)

I did think about adding Missouri's 1-4 ATS run in season openers to this list as well, but then the header would have to be Wizard of Oz related (Lions, Tigers, and Bears, Oh my) and even then it's hard to truly consider 'wildcats' as 'lions'. So it's just the two traditional basketball schools from these conferences that get the spotlight this week and both better be prepared to shine brighter than they have in recent season openers if they want to gain some respect in the betting market.

For UCLA, it's a road trip to Cincinnati as small road underdogs on Thursday, in a game that has already seen the Bruins take enough action to push them down and through that key number of +3.

UCLA opened up in the +3.5/4 range way back when, and is currently sitting at+2.5 everywhere. It's Year 2 for Chip Kelly's team, and one that should bring plenty of improvement for this Bruins squad, but historically slow starts in openers has to give pause on jumping on board the Bruins now.

Last year's season opener loss did come to this same Cincinnati team (26-17 loss) as double-digit home favorites for the Bruins, so the revenge angle is on their side, but having had this line move through that key number already, it's extremely hard to take the Bruins at +2.5 now based on a pure numbers perspective. With recent ATS history working against the Bruins as well, this could be one of those games that lands as a Cincinnati win by a FG in where UCLA's bad ATS run in season openers against the closing number continues. Keep an eye out for that.

Kentucky is at home in Week 1 laying 10.5/11 points to a visiting Toledo team that won't be a push over. Toledo is expected to compete for a MAC title this year, and with nine returning starters on the defensive side of the ball, Kentucky's QB Terry Wilson better be prepared to show some growth in his passing game skills right from the outset.

In fact, the MAC is still a conference that seemingly improves from top to bottom each year and gets treated like a doormat at times from some programs that are in bigger conferences but have suspect talent on the football field. Reputation on a name can only go so far, and Kentucky's in for a few changes this year as it is. That's not to say Toledo wins this game outright, but given the opponent, spread, and ATS historical history.

Utah-BYU landing plenty of Week 1 college football cash, as bettors hit Utes' odds
Patrick Everson

Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley missed the last five games of the 2018-19 season with a broken collarbone. But he's healthy now, and the Utes are 6-point favorites at Brigham Young on Thursday.

Week 1 of the college football season features a big Pac-12/SEC clash, but a lower-profile Pac-12/Mountain West rivalry game is getting much more attention from bettors. Covers checks in on the opening lines and odds movement for four key contests this week, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

No. 15 Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars (+6)

Utah went on a 7-1 SU run (6-2 ATS) to win the Pac-12 South Division and land in last season’s conference title game, then lost a grind-it-out game 10-3 to Washington as a 4.5-point neutral-site underdog. The Utes fell to Northwestern 31-20 as 6.5-point favorites in the Holiday Bowl to finish 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS.

Brigham Young was barely bowl-eligible last year, with a 6-6 SU regular-season mark, but a more-than-respectable 8-4 ATS record. The Cougars then boatraced Western Michigan 49-18 as 10-point favorites in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

These instate rivals met in the regular-season finale last year, with Utah winning 35-27 at home but BYU cashing as a 10.5-point pup. Although the line on this year’s meeting – first posted on June 8 – tightened by a point to Utah -5 in the past week, money is going against the home team for Thursday’s 10:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

“All the money is on Utah, but that’s all square action. We’ve got that book in Wendover,” Bogdanovich said, noting William Hill’s shop on the Utah/Nevada border, less than two hours from Salt Lake City. “It’s a short drive. Sixty percent of our action on that game will come from Wendover. They bet like crazy. It looks like the biggest-bet game so far. Both teams are perceived to be pretty good.”
Pac-12 2019 college football predictions and best bets: Will a CFP contender emerge?

No. 13 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-3)

A neutral-site nonconference battle among top-20 teams could provide an early-season boost to College Football Playoff hopes. Auburn is coming off an 8-5 SU campaign (6-6 ATS), capped by a 63-14 beatdown of Purdue laying 3.5 points in the Music City Bowl.

Oregon went 9-4 SU last year (5-8 ATS), winning three of its last four regular-season games to land a spot in the Redbox Bowl. In that New Year’s Eve contest, the Ducks won a 7-6 snoozer as 1-point ‘dogs against Michigan State.

Auburn opened -3 on June 8 and ticked down to 2.5 a day later, but the Tigers moved to -3.5 in the past week.

“We’re dead even to it, but there’s not much money in the pot,” Bogdanovich said. “The masses usually don’t get involved this early, but what money we do have is two-way action.”

The Pac-12/SEC contest is at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-32)

Alabama, which has reached all five CFPs, opens the 2019-20 season with a neutral-site game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Crimson Tide went 14-1 SU last year (8-7 ATS), with the only loss coming in blowout fashion in the CFP final, a 44-16 setback to Clemson as 5-point favorites. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back at the helm and is the Heisman Trophy favorites.

Duke won its first four games and five of its first six last season, then went 2-4 in the back half to narrowly nab a bowl bid. But the Blue Devils took advantage of the Independence Bowl spot, drubbing Temple 56-27 catching 3.5 points to finish 8-5 SU (7-6 ATS).

Alabama opened as monster chalk on June 8, but that hasn’t dissuaded bettors for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET matchup.

“There’s plenty of money for Alabama – points, parlays and moneyline parlays,” Bogdanovich said in noting the line is up to -34.5. “That’s one of the bigger-bet games of Week 1.”

UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.5)

Chip Kelly’s first year at UCLA was nothing to write home about, unless you like writing bad letters. The Bruins went 3-9 SU (5-6-1 ATS), unable to recover from an 0-5 start that just so happened to begin with a 26-17 upset loss to Cincinnati as 14-point home faves.

On the flipside, Cincy used that victory as a springboard to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS start and finished with one of the best years in school history, at 11-2 SU (7-6 ATS). The Bearcats wrapped up the season with a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech giving 5.5 points in the Military Bowl.

That said, bettors seem to think Kelly and the Bruins are worth supporting in this Thursday night road game, with a 7 p.m. ET kickoff.

“There’s money for UCLA,” Bogdanovich said of a line that opened Cincinnati -4.5 on June 8 and dropped to -3.5 within a couple of days. The Bearcats have been at -3 since July 24.

Week 1 Upset Alerts
Matt Blunt

After these pieces became highly popular last year, we had to bring them back for the 2019 college football season, one that is about 48 hours from really getting going. Not only were these underdog pieces popular, they also ended up turning a profit in the end, going 22-18 ATS, although the bulk of that damage was done thanks to the highly successful run backing 20+ underdogs.

Hopefully we can find a bit more balance in terms of projecting ATS winners in the smaller underdog ranges, as chances are a 11-2 ATS run with the 20+ underdogs won't happen again. The goal is to always improve and keep producing winners, and hopefully that continues as these pieces pop up every week as the college football season goes on.

The first full opening week always brings a plethora of 20+ underdogs as late August-early September is still great for the cupcake business in college football for those teams that prefer to indulge in that practice still. The really good teams are realizing that they need quality non-conference wins on their resume as well, so there is some abandonment of loading up a team's early schedule with FCS and much weaker FBS teams, but non-conference time in college football brings plenty of significant chalk, and bettors better be able to back a few of these hefty underdogs because they do cover spreads.

So let's get right to this year's opening underdogs, as we may be a month or two away from “MACtion” but it is the MAC Conference that gets the bulk of the spotlight out of the gate this year.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Ole Miss (+5.5) vs Memphis
The Memphis Tigers should be a player again in the AAC when all is said and done, but even against an Ole Miss team that's in a bit of a transitional year with their highly talented WR core moving on and a freshman QB, this is still a step up in class in competition level for Memphis.

That's not to say the Tigers aren't ready for it, but this is a team that couldn't take advantage of beating UCF last year without their starting QB, and defensively there is still a lot to be desired with the Tigers. Mississippi is still an SEC team with eight returning on defense. SEC defenses are known to be stout in non-conference play no matter who the SEC team actually is, and it's that physicality that I'm not sure Memphis will be ready for out of the gates.

The market has already pushed this line down to +5,5 after opening at +6 and currently showing a healthy majority backing the Memphis Tigers as well. That's the first sign that this number might be too high and/or bettors are discrediting a rebuilding Mississippi team too much. As a program, Memphis is on a 1-9-1 ATS run against SEC foes which also suggests that facing any SEC opponent is a step up in class Memphis has struggled with for years now.

If I took away the team names and just told you that the SEC team was catching 5+ points on the road against an AAC team, chances are many would be looking to take the points with the SEC. Obviously it's not as simple as that as the individual teams do matter, but Ole Miss deserves more respect coming out of the gate, and hopefully the end result is as simple as backing the team from the much better conference.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Toledo +12 vs Kentucky
I touched on a possible reason for fading Kentucky this week given the struggles the school has had in season openers the past few years earlier in the week here, and that's always a nice piece to add to the puzzle of this play as well.

But similar to people potentially sleeping on Ole Miss and how good (or more specifically, won't be as bad) they are, Toledo is a team that should make plenty of noise in the MAC, and Kentucky's got their own transitional period to deal with on the team this year.

Kentucky QB Terry Wilson will be called upon to be a much better passer from the outset this season, as there will be no more heavy reliance on Benny Snell out of the backfield. The Wildcats defense will still be the strength of this team, but that could easily take a step back too, as it's still just Week 1 remember and it's going to take some time for this Kentucky team to develop and reach it's full potential.

Toledo is a team that's loaded with veteran, returning experience basically across the board on offense, as there are 7 returning starters on offense for them – including their QB Michell Guadagni returning from injury – and all of them are seniors. That type of experience will serve Toledo well in going into Kentucky on Saturday, and with the market move already on Toledo in a similar fashion to what we've seen on Ole Miss – majority backing Kentucky, spread moved Toledo's way from +13.5 to +12 – this is another underdog move worth following.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 0-0 ATS

Miami (Ohio) +21.5 vs Iowa
The theme basically remains the same here, as I'm not ready to believe in an Iowa team to win by more than 3 TD's out of the gate, as this is a program that doesn't seemingly blowout anyone.

Iowa enters the year ranked in the Top 25, and as part of the highly intriguing Big 10 conference, it will be interesting to see where Iowa's season ultimately shakes out. But I'd venture a guess that they won't end up ranked when all is said and done, even if they do avoid some potential powerhouses in Michigan State and Ohio State on the season.

But this game against Miami (Ohio) is one right before Big 10 play essentially begins for the Hawkeyes with Rutgers coming to town next week. There really is no looking past Miami Ohio in terms of looking ahead to Rutgers, but every conference game is going to be critical in the Big 10 for programs that believe they've got a shot at winning the conference, so there is always the notion that Iowa could build a big lead early here and then put things on cruise control to stay healthy going into next week. Covering through that backdoor is a big part of these 20+ underdogs hitting, and I expect that door to be open through the entirety of this one.

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Joe Nelson

While college football had a brief preview last Saturday with two compelling and competitive games, the season opens more officially Thursday night with six games scheduled. Here is a look at the two ESPN contests with a pair of closely-lined battles in rematches of tight games last season.

UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats
Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Cincinnati -3, Over/Under 60½
Last Meeting: 2018, Cincinnati (+14) 26, at UCLA 17

The highly anticipated return of Chip Kelly to the college football sidelines was spoiled on the opening college football weekend last season by the Cincinnati Bearcats. UCLA had a promising start in the game taking advantage of good field position to lead 10-0 in the first quarter but by halftime Cincinnati was up 17-10. The game was tied into the fourth quarter before a forced fumble resulted in a safety and Cincinnati would put the game away for one of the biggest upsets of the first week of the 2018 season.

UCLA started Michigan transfer Wilton Speight in that game but he was injured and freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over. He wound up playing the bulk of the snaps in the next five games for the Bruins before losing playing time late in the season to Speight, who has been in 49ers camp this August. Thompson-Robinson is the expected starter for UCLA this season and he will look to improve on marginal passing numbers with a 58 percent completion rate last season for only seven touchdowns. He also managed only a net gain of 68 yards on the ground last season despite Kelly being known for using quarterbacks in the running game as well.

The final record for UCLA last season was 3-9 but the Bruins did win three Pac-12 games including beating rival USC in November. They also were very competitive in three other single-score losses in league play including a seven-point loss to eventual Pac-12 champion Washington. UCLA will again play an extremely difficult non-conference schedule this season after losing to three teams that combined to win 35 games last season but this year’s Pac-12 draw is more favorable with Oregon and Washington absent from the North.

In Luke Fickell’s second season with Cincinnati the Bearcats improved from 4-8 to 11-2 including a bowl win over Virginia Tech. One of Cincinnati’s losses came in overtime but in the big late season showdown with UCF they were blown out with a 38-13 result to fall short in the difficult AAC East race. This year’s schedule will be much more challenging even if the Bearcats can make a case for being an even better team. Cincinnati will draw Ohio State in non-conference action next week in Columbus while they must play Memphis and Houston from the AAC West, teams they did not have to play last season.

Long-time Cincinnati starting quarterback Hayden Moore did start last season’s game with UCLA but was replaced early in the game after taking two sacks in five plays including a fumble that handed the Bruins the early advantage. Desmond Ridder took over to lead the win for the Bearcats and played substantially the rest of the season as the team’s main quarterback, winding up with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions as well as rushing for more than 500 yards.

Cincinnati’s success last season in conference play came due to its defense which allowed an AAC best 139 points in eight games for an average of just over 17 points. That average was just over 14 points per game allowed against the teams other than UCF, and that even includes two overtime contests. In great contrast UCLA allowed more than 34 points per game last season, albeit through one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. The 26 points allowed in the loss to Cincinnati was technically the second best defensive scoring game of the season for UCLA.

In last year’s game UCLA posted 4.6 yards per rush and had a stronger yards per pass average compared with Cincinnati, finishing the game with two more yards in the box score overall. The turnovers were even and the penalty count was close as well but field position wound up being critical with each team having two short scoring drives of 36 yards or fewer.

Cincinnati can survive a loss next week to remain in the conversation for the top Group of 5 team bid but they need to win this game and maintain a run of 17 straight S/U wins in the season home opener. For a UCLA program looking to improve in stature this will be a big win to elevate its postseason prospects and improve on a 2-15 S/U record on the road the past three seasons.

Utah Utes at BYU Cougars
LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Utah -5, Over/Under 48
Last Meeting: 2018, at Utah (-10½) 35, BYU 27

Utah has been consistently successful under Kyle Whittingham who is the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12, even though Utah has only been in the Pac-12 since 2011. His career record is 120-61 and the Utes have had five straight winning seasons, while winning the Pac-12 south for the first time last year. The expectations continue to grow for the program in a potentially wide-open race out west with the Utes opening the season in the top 15 of the polls.

Utah closed the regular season with BYU last November and managed to erase a 20-0 deficit to come back and win. It is worth noting that the Utes clinched the Pac-12 South the prior week and had their first appearance in the Pac-12 championship six days following this rivalry game and that perhaps showed in the slow start. The final score was misleading as BYU had a 357-296 yardage edge and Utah added a late touchdown after BYU fell a yard short of converting a 4th down on its own side of the field. Utah had a field goal blocked but also had a pick-6 that cut into the 20-0 deficit to start the game.

The other caveat is that Jason Shelley started the game for Utah at quarterback as a freshman that had played in only two prior games as Utah was without Tyler Huntley as well as last year’s top running back Zack Moss for the game. Huntley had produced very solid numbers the past two seasons and is healthy and one of the top returning leaders in the conference, and Moss is also back as the lead back on the team. Top receiver Britain Covey also appears cleared to play for the Utes after recovering from knee surgery.

BYU had some ups-and-downs last season with a 3-1 start that included wins at Arizona and then at Wisconsin. BYU was blown out in the next two games and wound up losing four of the next five before sneaking into the bowl picture at 6-6, where they soundly defeated Western Michigan. The Tanner Mangum era at BYU is over as despite some nice moments the long-time starter was a consistent turnover risk. Zach Wilson took over midseason as a freshman last season and wound up with good numbers, albeit mostly facing some of the lesser teams on the season schedule.

Playing as an independent BYU’s opportunities against major conference teams come early in the season and they have a heavyweight path in the first half of the season facing Utah, Tennessee, USC, and Washington in the first four games, though three of those games will be in Provo. Add in contests vs. Toledo, South Florida, Boise State, and Utah State in the next block of the schedule and getting back to .500 is far from a given for this team in the fourth season for Kitani Sitake, who is 20-19 in his career.

BYU outscored foes 354-278 last season but the unbalanced scheduled meant a few blowouts. This contest carries great weight as a long-time rivalry with this year’s game actually the 100th all-time meeting between these nearby schools. Utah owns a substantial edge in that ledger including eight consecutive wins with the last BYU victory coming in 2009. Each of the past six Utah wins has come by eight or fewer points as a close game has been the norm in recent years.

The stakes are high in this year’s ‘Holy War’ as BYU seems likely to be dogged each of the next three weeks as a 0-4 start is certainly possible. For Utah a chance to breakthrough on a national level this season seems attainable with this game being one of three most dangerous road games on the season. The Pac-12 draw misses both Stanford and Oregon for a preferable path as a double-digit win season is realistic and running the table isn’t out of the question for an experienced group if they can first get by their historical rival.

Other Games Thursday

Georgia Tech at Clemson
Clemson will open up its defense of last season’s national title in a game that many won’t be able to see with the launch of the ACC Network with few active providers carrying the new channel. The spread doesn’t suggest a compelling game in the debut for Geoff Collins leading Georgia Tech but Clemson did lose to the Yellow Jackets in 2014 and the past two regular season defeats for the program were unassuming contests in which the Tigers were at least three-TD favorites.

Florida International at Tulane
The Panthers won as a double-digit underdog hosting this matchup two years ago and this closely-lined contest will be an important win for the victor in a battle of a pair of programs potentially headed to the bowl bubble by season’s end. Both teams have difficult non-conference games ahead as this will be a big swing game for teams looking to take another step forward.

Texas State at Texas A&M
Jake Spavital is the new Texas State head coach and he was an assistant at Texas A&M for three seasons under Kevin Sumlin. The Bobcats project as one of the teams at the bottom of the FBS rankings but this was a fairly competitive team with several narrow losses last season. Texas A&M will likely have few games like this taking on one of the nation’s toughest schedules in year two for Jimbo Fisher.

Kent State at Arizona State
True freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels will be worth watching as the new starter for Arizona State, a program that should remain in the Pac-12 South mix in year two under Herm Edwards. Kent State played up-tempo last season for Sean Lewis and brings back a lot of experience following a tough 2-10 campaign that did feature great strides offensively compared with the 2017 numbers.

NCAAF

Week 1

Labor Day weekend’s top 13 games

UCLA has 19 starters back from LY’s 3-9 team that allowed 38+ points six times; Bruins have 65 starts back on OL. Cincinnati has seven starters back on both sides of ball, but has only 31 returning starts on the OL. Under Fickell, Cincy is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite; since 2013, Bearcats are 10-18 vs spread in non-conference games. Since ’14, UCLA is 6-8 ATS as a road underdog; they’re 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 games outside Pac-12. Both teams figure to start a sophomore QB. Last five years, AAC teams covered five of six games vs Pac-12 squads.

Utah won its last three games with BYU by 1-6-8 points, winning last visit to Provo 19-13 (-3); Utes are 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Utah has a senior QB (19 starts); its OL has 49 returning starts- they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. BYU’s OL has 74 returning starts, despite having no senior starters on OL; their soph QB has seven starts. Under Sitake, Cougars are 0-3-1 ATS as a home underdog. BYU has 17 starters back overall.

Under Chryst, Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS as a road favorite; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 non-league games. Badgers have six starters back on both sides of ball; they’ll probably start a freshman QB, but their OL, normally a strength, has only 34 returning starts. South Florida has 91 starts back on its OL: they’ve got nine starters back on offense, have a senior QB- they’re 9-14-1 ATS as a home underdog (1-3 under Strong). Last three years, AAC teams are 8-4 vs spread when playing a Big 14 team.

Colorado won its last four games with Colorado State, last three by 14+ points; Buffs have a new coach, a senior QB (27 starts) and an OL with 63 career starts (2 senior starters)- they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a favorite, 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 non-league games. State’s OL has only 26 returning starts; their junior QB has 8 starts. Rams covered 10 of last 14 games as an underdog; last three years, they’re 5-9 ATS outside the Mountain West. Last six years, Pac-12 teams are 36-33-1 vs spread when facing Mountain West teams.

Home side won last three Ole Miss-Memphis games; under Luke, Rebels are 3-4 ATS as a road underdog. Last three years, Ole Miss is 5-7 ATS outside the SEC. Rebels have a new QB, an OL with only 36 retuning starts- they’v got 10 starters back on defense, but only three on offense. Under Norvell, Memphis is 16-12 ATS as a favorite; Tigers have a junior QB (15 starts), an OL with 52 returning starts. Memphis is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games outside AAC. Last three years, SEC teams covered five of six games vs AAC opponents.

South Carolina (-2) edged North Carolina 17-13 in last meeting in 2015; both teams changed coaches since then. UNC has Mack Brown back on sidelines; he has a new QB, an OL with 48 career starts but very little depth. USC has a senior QB (32 starts), an OL with 51 starts; under Muschamp, Gamecocks are 7-8 ATS outside SEC; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a road favorite. Tar Heels covered six of last nine tries as an underdog; last five years, they’re 0-5-1 ATS on neutral fields. Last year, SEC teams were 8-1 ATS vs ACC foes (44-34-1 since ’11).

Over last decade, Northwestern is 24-9 ATS as a road underdog; they upset Stanford 16-6 (+10) in last meeting in 2015. Since ’14, Wildcats are 8-12-1 vs spread outside Big 14. Northwestern has a new QB, an OL with 48 starts (1 senior, 3 junior starters). Stanford has only nine starters back; their junior QB has 20 starts, their OL only 39 starts. Last three years, Cardinal is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite; they’re 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 non-league games. Stanford opens Pac-12 play with USC next week. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 16-8 ATS when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

Road team won four of last five Virginia Tech-Boston College games; Hokies won 23-10/26-10 in last two visits to Beantown. Favorites covered last four series games. Tech has 10 starters back on defense, a junior QB (20 starts), an OL with 51 starts- since 2012, they’re 6-16 ATS as a road favorite. BC has a junior QB (22 starts), an OL with 65 starts, but has only 3 starters back on defense. Last two years, Eagles are 4-1-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Florida State is only 12-13 the last two years, with a -17 turnover ratio; Boise is +24 in turnovers the last two years. Seminoles have a soph QB (12 starts), an OL wth 58 career starts- FSU does have eight starters back on both sides of ball. Last three years, Seminoles are 9-13-2 ATS as a favorite; they’re 12-8 ATS in last 20 tilts outside the ACC. Boise State has new QB but an OL with 106 career starts (3 senior starters); over last decade, Broncos are 5-3 ATS as an underdog; under Harsin, they’re 14-10 ATS outside MW. Last four years, ACC teams are 5-3 vs spread when playing a Mountain West team.

Pittsburgh won its last four games with Virginia, winning 31-14/26-19 in last two played here; Panthers have a junior QB (15 starts), an OL with 37 starts- they’ve got only 11 of 22 starters back from LY. Virginia has a senior QB (13 starts), an OL with 46 starts; over last nine years, Cavaliers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite. Last three years, Pitt is 5-3 vs spread as a home underdog. Overall under Narduzzi, Pitt is 17-11 ATS as an underdog.

Oregon has 153 returning starts on its offensive line, Auburn 104; nine of 10 starters are seniors. Oregon has 17 starters back, a senior QB (28 starts) and for first time in three years, they’ve got same coach as the year before. Last three years, Oregon is 3-11-1 ATS as an underdog; they’re 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 non-league games. Auburn has seven starters back on both sides of ball; they’ll have a new QB. Last five years, Tigers are 8-16-1 ATS outside the SEC; they’re 3-5 ATS in last eight neutral field games. Since 2011, SEC teams are 9-3 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.

Last nine years, USC is 11-24 vs spread outside Pac-12; last two years, Trojans are 3-9 ATS as a home favorite. USC has a soph QB (11 starts); their OL has 63 starts- they lost half their 22 starters from LY. Fresno lost 13 starters from LY, has only three back on offense; Bulldogs have a new QB- their OL has only 31 starts, but they’ve covered eight of last 10 non-MW games, and are 22-6 SU last two years. USC (-20) hammered Fresno 52-13 in last meeting five years ago; both teams changed coaches since then. Last six years, Pac-12 teams are 36-33-1 vs spread when facing Mountain West teams. USC opens Pac-12 play with Stanford next week.

Houston has a senior QB (18 starts), an OL with 101 starts and Holgorsen is new coach; he was 0-6 vs Oklahoma in his last job (WVU), allowing 44+ points in each of last five meetings. Cougars are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog- they’ve got only four starters back on defense. Sooners’ new QB is Alabama transfer Hurts (26-2 as starter); their OL has only 36 starts. Under Riley, Oklahoma is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite, 5-3 ATS outside Big X. Houston (+12) upset Oklahoma 33-23 in last meeting 33-23 in 2016; both teams changed coaches since then. Last two years, Big X teams are 7-3 ATS when playing an AAC team.

Louisville went 2-10 LY after going 57-21 the previous six years, so they changed coaches; Cardinals have 10 starters back on defense, a junior QB (9 starts), an OL with 57 starts- they covered once in last five tries as a home underdog. Last three years, Louisville is 3-11 ATS outside the ACC. Notre Dame has a junior QB (10 starts), an OL with 60 starts. Irish is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Louisville (+3) won last meeting 31-28, five years ago.
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Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

We've got to wait a week before we get those stand alone Friday night affairs in college football this year, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as the opening Friday of the season is never short on action. This year we get eight games of FBS action to help further along that great first weekend of college football, and with the market place geared up for these games for months now, all eight will see significant action.

However, with seven of the eight games having double-digit favorites currently listed, how competitive these eight games on Friday end up being is up for debate. Three of the seven teams laying double-digits are doing so on the road, with Big 10 teams Wisconsin and Purdue being two of those three. Michigan State is another Big 10 team in action, laying 20+ and climbing at home against Tulsa.

With plenty of action available out there, there are a few games that deserve at least some discussion, so let's take a look at a few different spots out there on Friday night.

Massachusetts at Rutgers (-15.5), Total 55.5

Rutgers as a double-digit favorite? Is it warranted?

It's not often that Rutgers gets to be laying points against anyone in a given year, but they do tend to be double-digit chalk at least once per season, and it's usually in these early season games against FCS competition often times. U Mass moved up from that classification early on in this decade, but they are still far from competitive and that will likely be the case in 2019 as well.

It's still Rutgers laying this big number though, and it's one that's been bet up since opening around -12. Rutgers is not expected to be all that competitive in the Big 10 either, but early action and market adjustment suggests laying it with Rutgers is the way to go. After all, they are 3-2 ATS the past four years as a double-digit favorite (2-0 ATS last two seasons), and the two ATS defeats were by the hook at -13.5 in a 13-point win, and a 38-point victory that fell short of covering -42. Rutgers may not be a great upset candidate in Big 10 play, but when they are projected to win easily, that's what they tend to do.

Definitely tough to lay it now with the best of the number long gone and it still saying “Rutgers” beside that point spread, but don't be surprised to see Rutgers feeling extra confident going into Iowa next week off a blowout 20+ point win this week.

Oklahoma State (-14.5) vs Oregon State, Total 74

Too far to travel for Oklahoma State out of the gate?

The betting market has already shown support for Rutgers and their chalk this week, but the same can't be said for Oklahoma State and their chalk out on the road in Corvallis. An opening line of -16.5 saw quick resistance at -17, before even more action started to settle on the Beavers, knocking it down to it's current state of -14.5. That's a move that does look a bit more significant then it really is – moves tend to be multiple points between the key numbers of -14 and -17 – but is this move going to be the right one?

You never know how the actual game will play out, but on the surface, taking a home dog at more then two TD's against a team that's got to travel a long way and has a history of shooting itself in the foot at times does make a lot of sense. But then it puts you on this Oregon State Beavers program who's likely to struggle again this season.

The Beavers do have more experience on offense that will help them be a bit more competitive in the end, but not necessarily the firepower that OK State brings to the party. With a total in the mid-70's, can you really trust that Oregon State will score 30+ here? Oregon State managed to hit that mark in their first three games a season ago vs Ohio State, Southern Utah, and Nevada, but it's not a thing I'd count on regularly from this team, even if it is against an OK State team that gave up 32.5 points/game a season ago.

It still is the Cowboys on the other side of the field though, and they are no strangers to losing games outright as multiple score favorites. It is a long way for them to travel to not really increase the standing of their potential 2019 resume much (it may be a Pac-12 team, but it's still Oregon State), and if the offense doesn't find itself in sync, can a defense that's been bad for years really carry the load? Not something I'm willing to risk a unit on to find out, as this game could end up landing rather close to either side of this current number.

Colorado State vs Colorado (-13.5), Total 57

The annual tradition of Colorado and Under in this rivalry game

The Colorado/Colorado State game has opened up the season for these two programs in nine of the past 11 years, but as is the case whenever these two meet up, support for Colorado and the 'under' always takes center stage.

While totals for some of these games have been out for weeks and line moves over that kind of time span are going to generally be greater, this total opened up at 64.5 at the beginning, and apart from a blip of 'over' money a few days ago, it's all 'under' money on this total. Considering that of those past 11 matchups between these two instate rivals, the 'under' has gone 10-1 against the number, it's easy to see why that side of the total is getting support. The hatred seems to never take a summer break for these schools and they bring it in terms of physicality every year. Oddsmakers continue to put out totals that get pounded to the 'under' and keep having to pay out.

Backing Colorado ATS is the yearly tradition as well, and with a 7-3-1 ATS record the past 11 years in this game – including entering this year on a 3-0 ATS run – the Pac-12 team has lived up to the general belief that nearly all Power 5 conference teams should be able to beat the non-Power 5 schools. This spread has really only seen Colorado money since coming out at -11, and we could end up seeing this game close at greater than two TD's.

However, eventually one of these initial numbers that oddsmakers put out on this yearly contest is going to be more accurate then the market continues to think, and of determining whether to go against the recent runs of Colorado and the 'under' in these games, it would be the total streak that I believe will get snapped.

Colorado is going to be much more consistent on offense this year, and the defense will continue to not be great. Colorado State is in a similar position this year as well, so when you've got the strengths of both sides going up against the weaknesses on both sides, chances are siding with the former will work out better.

Colorado State already gave up 42.5 points per non-home game last year, and last year's game, despite cashing the 'under' easily with a 45-13 score staying well below the 65.5 total, that final score this season would now hit current 'over' bets. It's not like it's rare for these CFB totals with major moves to land somewhere in the middle of those moves, leaving a lot of initial steam chasers left in the dark.

But having hitting that key number of 57 (and even lower in some places), I think we see these two rivals bring out the points this year, in a game that in all likelihood results in another Colorado win.

Best Bet: Over 57 points