Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/29/19
College football Week 10 opening odds and early action: Bettors hit Georgia first vs Florida
Patrick Everson
Georgia can't afford another loss, and neither can Florida in a Week 10 neutral-site clash at Jacksonville. The Bulldogs opened 3.5-point favorites, then moved to -4 on some early action.
Week 10 is the last one to make an impression on the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. We check in on opening odds and early action for a quartet of key games, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.
No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Florida Gators (+3.5)
Georgia put itself in a must-win position for this game by severely stubbing its toe in Week 7, losing outright at South Carolina as 20.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) rebounded by blanking Kentucky 21-0 as 23.5-point Week 8 favorites, then had a bye in Week 9.
Florida’s lone loss also came in Week 7, though in much more respectable fashion at Louisiana State, where it stuck around throughout before succumbing late, 42-28. The Gators (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) then did what Georgia couldn’t, winning at South Carolina 38-27 as 3.5-point Week 8 faves. Florida also had a bye in Week 9.
Per usual, Jacksonville’s TIAA Bank Field hosts this neutral-site game, long dubbed the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
“This is obviously the biggest game of the week and a de facto play-in for the SEC title game,” Chaprales said, before noting the line uptick to Bulldogs -4. “The first move was toward Georgia, but we’re expecting smart money to take the points with Florida. It should be good two-way action, regardless.”
By Monday night, Florida bettors had more points to take, as the line shot to Georgia -6. PointsBet USA's trading team said sharp Bulldogs action and market movement led to the big adjustment.
No. 8 Oregon Ducks at Southern California Trojans (+4.5)
Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope for a CFP bid, with its lone loss a quality one in a neutral-site Week 1 setback against Auburn. But the Ducks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) barely stayed in that playoff conversation in Week 9, needing a final-seconds field goal to beat Washington State 37-35 laying 14 points at home.
Likewise, Southern Cal was a double-digit Week 9 favorite and barely got the job done. The Trojans (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) were giving 10.5 points at Colorado on Friday night and trailed much of the game, but nabbed the 35-31 win on a late touchdown.
“A potential preview of the Pac-12 championship game, neither of these teams impressed in victory as double-digit chalk this past weekend,” Chaprales said. “That said, we’ve seen more Oregon interest this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number grow.”
No. 14 Southern Methodist Mustangs at No. 23 Memphis Tigers (-3.5)
Southern Methodist is in the rare air of perfection, sitting at 8-0 SU and a solid 6-2 ATS through nine weeks. The Mustangs got all they could handle at Houston last Thursday, hanging on for a 34-31 victory as 12-point road favorites.
Memphis is also having a solid year in the American Athletic Conference, at 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS). Much like SMU, though, the Tigers got a tough Week 9 road test, scoring a touchdown with 4:26 remaining to snare a 42-41 victory over Tulsa as 10-point faves.
“All quiet so far, but given that both teams have overachieved relative to market expectations, and this is a nationally televised prime-time game, it will be interesting to see how the public gets involved,” Chaprales said.
By Monday afternoon, someone got involved, as the line jumped to Memphis -4.5, and by Monday night, the Tigers were up to -5.5.
No. 10 Utah Utes at Washington Huskies (+2)
Utah is a longer shot to make the CFP, but a win this week would certainly help keep it in the conversation. The Utes (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) won and cashed their last four outings, including a 35-0 bashing of California as 21-point home favorites in Week 9.
Washington was thought to be a preseason CFP contender, but already has three losses. In Week 8, the Huskies (5-3 SU and ATS) held a 28-14 lead over Oregon early in the third quarter, but gave it back in a 35-31 loss catching 3 points at home. Washington had a bye in Week 9.
“We opened Utah -2 and took a few bets at that number, and then a bit more following an initial move to 2.5, pushing it up to 3. That figures to be the resistance point,” Chaprales said.
As it turned out, 3 wasn’t quite the resistance point. PointsBet USA moved Utah to -3.5 by Monday afternoon.
Saturday’s top 13 games
NC State is 4-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing away games by 17-18-21 points; Wolfpack gave up 429 RY in their last game, 45-24 loss at Boston College. State is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog, 0-1 TY- three of their last four games stayed under the total. Wake Forest is 6-1, with four wins by 6 or fewer points; Deacons allowed average of 500.7 yds/game in their last three games. Wake is 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite. Favorites covered four of last five series games, with Wake winning last two, 27-23/30-24; Wolfpack lost seven of last eight visits to Winston-Salem (1-7 ATS).
Underdogs covered five of six Nebraska-Purdue games, with Cornhuskers winning four of six meetings, two of three here. Nebraska lost three of last four games overall, giving up 72 points in their last two games; they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 0-2 TY- three of last four games for both teams stayed under the total. Huskers lost two of three road games TY, with only win 42-38 win at Illinois, Purdue lost five of last six games; they scored 40+ points in their two wins (Vandy/Maryland); under Brohm, they’re 4-2 ATS as a home underdog, 1-1 TY.
Underdogs are 7-2 SU in last nine Boston College-Syracuse games, with Orangemen winning six of the nine games; teams split last four meetings in the Carrier Dome. Road team won last three series games. BC has injury issues at QB; they completed only 12-33 passes last two games, are 12-3-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog, 1-1 TY. Eagles lost last game 59-7 at Clemson. Over is 5-2 in BC games this year; last four SU games stayed under. Syracuse lost its last three games, scoring total of only 47 points; under Babers, Syracuse is 4-7 ATS as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
Favorites covered seven of last nine Virginia-North Carolina games, with Cavaliers winning last two, 31-21/20-14; UVa lost three of lat four visits to Chapel Hill. Virginia lost three of last four games overall, with all three losses on road; favorites covered all four of their road games TY. Under Mendenhall, Cavaliers are 7-8 ATS as a road underdog, 0-2 TY; they’ve run ball for less than 80 yards in four of last five games. North Carolina is 4-4 with seven of the games decided by 6 or fewer points; Tar Heels’ four losses are by a total of 12 points. UNC is 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite, 3-0 this year.
BYU upset Boise State in its last game, ending a 3-game skid; Cougars are 3-4, with all three wins by three points. Underdogs covered five of their last six games; under Sitake, BYU is 10-2-1 ATS as a road underdog. BYU scored 28+ points in its three wins; they’re 0-4 when scoring less than 28. Three of their last four games went over. Utah State gave up 448 RY in its 31-7 loss at Air Force LW; Aggies won their two I-A home games TY by 10-26 points- their last five games stayed under. Aggies are 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite. Utah State won its last two games with BYU, 45-20/40-24; dogs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 series games.
Favorites covered four of last five Oregon-USC games; teams split last six meetings played here- this is first series meeting since ’16. Average total in last six series games: 79.8. Oregon won its last seven games after an opening loss to Auburn, winning last two 35-31/37-35; they gave up 406 PY to Wazzu LW. Under Cristobal, Ducks are 4-1 ATS as road favorites. USC has started three QB’s already; #2 QB Slovis, a true frosh is starting now. Trojans scored 41-35 points in winning their last two games; five of their last six games stayed under. Since 2013, USC is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog, 1-0 TY.
Trap game for 5-2 Kansas State squad coming off upset of Oklahoma LW; Wildcats split pair of road games, despite being outgained by 364 yards; three of their last four games stayed under. Last four years, State is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite. Kansas snapped a 4-game skid with a 37-34 home win over Texas Tech LW; they threw ball for 725 yards in two games since changing OC’s. Jayhawks allowed 200+ RY in each of their last four games; five of their last six games went over. Kansas is 2-1 ATS as a home underdog TY. K-State won last ten series games but Jayhawks covered last three; this is first time since ’10 that this game has a single digit spread.
SMU is 8-0, scoring 34+ points in every game; two of their three road wins were by 3 points, at TCU/Houston- seven of their eight games went over the total. Mustangs allowed 500+ TY in two of last three games; they’re 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as road underdogs, 2-0 TY. Memphis is 7-1; they beat Tulsa 42-41 LW when Tulsa missed a 29-yard FG on last play- Tulsa gained 584 yards. Tigers allowed 256+ RY in three of last five games; they scored 42+ points in six of last seven games- their last five games went over. Memphis won/covered last five series games, with all five wins by 10+ points.
Favorites won/covered last four Florida-Georgia games, with Dawgs winning last two years, 36-17/42-7; Georgia held Gators to 275 or fewer TY in last three meetings. Georgia struggled to beat Kentucky 21-0 in rain last game after getting upset by South Carolina the week before; under Smart, they’re 18-7 ATS away from Athens, 2-0 TY- four of their last five games stayed under. Florida gave up 435 RY in last two games, winning 38-27 at So Carolina after they lost 42-28 at LSU. Gators are 3-0-1 ATS in last four games as an underdog, 1-0-1 TY. This game is at the neutral Jacksonville site, while the Jaguars play in London.
Underdogs won last four TCU-Oklahoma State games SU; Horned Frogs won last two meetings 31-24/44-31- they lost three of four visits to Stillwater. TCU beat rival Texas 37-27 LW but lost last two road games, at Iowa St/K-State; over last 11 years, Frogs are 14-5 ATS as road underdogs, 1-0 TY- four of their last five games went over the total. OSU trailed four of its last five games at halftime; they split first four Big X games, winning home games over Kansas (51-14), Texas (37-27). Cowboys are 13-13-1 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite- four of their last six games stayed under.
Mississippi State allowed 40.3 ppg in losing its last four games, all by 10+ points; they’re 0-2 on SEC road TY, losing 56-23 at Auburn, 20-10 0t Tennessee. Bulldogs are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. MSU was -6 in turnovers their last two games. State won four of last five series games; underdogs covered four of last five; Bulldogs won their last three visits here, by 7-1-7 points. Arkansas lost its last five games, losing last two by combined score of 99-17, when they were blanked in first half of both games; under Morris, Hogs are 3-2 ATS as home underdogs, 0-1 TY.
Underdogs covered three of last four Miami-Florida State games, with Hurricanes winning last two, 28-27/24-20. Miami lost three of last four visits here; dogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight series games played in Tallahassee. Both teams are down this year; Miami is 4-4, will start Williams at QB here after he rallied ‘canes to 16-12 win at Pitt LW. Miami is 17-9 ATS in last 26 games as a road dog, 1-0 TY. Florida State won its last four home games, covering last three; Seminoles are 9-10 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY- their last five games stayed under. FSU gained 449-487 TY in last two games; they’re 0-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Utah won its last four games, allowing total of 20 points; Utes are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY- their last six games stayed under the total. Utah allowed total of only 219 TY in last two games; they faced Cal’s #3 QB LW. Only game Utah lost this year was 30-23 at USC, when Trojans threw for 368 yards. Underdogs covered five of last seven Utah-Washington games; Huskies held Utah to total of 10 points in pair of wins LY, beating Utes 10-3 in Pac-12 title game. Washington has only two defensive starters back from LY; they’re 5-3, losing two of last three games- this is first time in four years they’re a home underdog.
by: Monty Andrews
MONEY MARTINEZ
Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez is inching closer to a return. Martinez has missed the Cornhuskers' previous two games with a left knee injury suffered against Northwestern but told reporters Tuesday that he "expects to go" this weekend versus the Purdue Boilermakers.
Martinez will be looking to rebound from what has been a rough season, at least through the air. He has completed just 60.6 percent of his passes to date with seven touchdowns and five interceptions but has added 341 yards and three scores on the ground. Nebraska has lost both games in Martinez's absence.
The Boilermakers are dealing with major injury absences of their own on offense and, while Martinez is having an uneven season, the offense is averaging 31.8 points with him and 19 points without him. We like visiting Nebraska to cover as 3-point road chalk.
WORK FOR WHITLOW?
Now that he's shaken off the rust, JaTarvious Whitlow is no doubt ready to carry more of the load for the Auburn Tigers, but it won't happen right away.
Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is suggesting that Whitlow isn't quite at full strength yet, and will likely see limited action against the Ole Miss Rebels this weekend. Whitlow returned from left knee surgery last week and had three carries for eight yards out of the Wildcat in a loss to LSU. Expect to see a few more snaps for Whitlow, who has 553 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 113 carries for Auburn this season.
Even a little more Whitlow is a great thing for an Auburn offense that has scored 20 or fewer points in two of its past three games. With the Tigers’ running game strengthened and Ole Miss terrible versus the pass, we like the Over 37.5 points on Auburn’s team total.
JARREN’S JOB
The Miami Hurricanes' starting quarterback battle appears to have taken another turn. Jarren Williams took the first-team snaps during Tuesday's practice, suggesting he has the upper hand over N'Kosi Perry in the battle for the starting job against rival Florida State this Saturday.
Williams entered last week's game against Pittsburgh after Perry struggled and promptly led the Hurricanes on the game-winning drive. Williams started the first five games of the season before suffering a shoulder injury, resulting in Perry taking over the starting role and performing admirably in Williams' absence.
This ACC rivalry has all the makings of a close game. The Hurricanes pulled out a 28-27 win in last year's meeting, and all three of their true road games in 2019 have been decided by four points or fewer. We suggest taking the 1-6 margin of victory on either side, which is priced at Miami +375 and FU +350.
PERKINS PROBLEM
Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins is hopeful of a return to action against host North Carolina Saturday. Perkins suffered a knee injury in last week's 28-21 loss to Louisville and was noticeably less than 100 percent by the end of the game.
Perkins told reporters his knee is feeling much better and is expecting to take the field this weekend. He struggled against the Cardinals (24 of 41, 233 yards, one TD, one INT) and has thrown just one touchdown pass over his previous three games. The senior signal-caller has added 119 rush attempts for 275 yards and five scores on the ground.
We have a hard time believing Perkins will be fully healthy by the weekend, and with North Carolina on quite a roll (3-1 ATS in the past four), the Tar Heels are looking like a strong cover play at -2.5.
by: Monty Andrews
NOT A GREAT MATCHUP
The West Virginia Mountaineers had an extra week to prepare for this week's encounter with the host Baylor Bears – but not even that might cure what ails them. The Mountaineers enter Thursday's matchup with one of the worst rush attacks in the nation, averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry on 213 attempts. And they'll get no relief from a Bears defense that has punished opposing backfields, limiting them to just 3.6 yards per attempt so far this season. West Virginia's pass protection will also face a major test from a Baylor defensive unit that leads the Big 12 in sacks with 25 despite having played just seven games.
You could bet on the Mountaineers having figured out its ground game, or you could acknowledge that West Virginia could find itself struggling to score against the Bears in hostile territory. Either way, we like Baylor to cover the spread here.
GO LOW, THEN GO LOWER
What happens when two run-heavy teams with stout ground defenses face off against one another? We'll find out Thursday night as Georgia Southern brings its sixth-ranked rush attack into Appalachian State for a showdown with the Mountaineers. App State ranks 14th in the country in rushing yards per game, setting the stage for what should be a whole lot of handoffs. But both teams have defended the run well this season, with the visiting Eagles having limited opponents to just 133.0 yards per game (3.46 YPC) and Appalachian State having been just as proficient defensively (118.5 YPG, 3.51 YPC in conference play).
Both teams should be able to move the ball, but not nearly as efficiently as they have for the majority of the season. The total for this game is already three points lower than its opener, and that's still not low enough. We favor the under.
TAYLOR A GAMETIME DECISION
The Memphis Tigers might have another stud running back in the fold for this week's pivotal AAC showdown with visiting SMU. Patrick Taylor Jr. suffered a leg injury in the Tigers' season opener against Ole Miss on Aug. 31 and hasn't played since – but has been practicing in a non-contact jersey this week and is a game-time decision against the Mustangs. His return would give Memphis an incredible 1-2 punch in the backfield; Taylor racked up 128 rushing yards and a score vs. the Rebels, while freshman Kenneth Gainwell has compiled 979 yards and 11 touchdowns in Taylor's absence.
Memphis is already looking at a total in the high-30s for this one, but if Taylor returns, we'll feel a whole lot better about taking the Over. Keep an eye on Taylor's status, and act accordingly.
HAMMERIN' HANK SET TO RETURN
The Boise State Broncos are hoping to have their No. 1 quarterback on the field this weekend against host San Jose State. Hank Bachmeier missed last week's 28-25 loss at BYU – the Broncos' first defeat of the season – with a lower-body injury. But the freshman was seen throwing passes to Boise State receivers in practice earlier this week, though the team hasn't updated his status. Bachmeier has been one of the top first-year quarterbacks in the country so far, throwing for more than 1,500 yards with nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a rushing score.
The Broncos' offense looked out-of-sync against the Cougars, especially through the air (185 total yards, 5.8 yards per attempt). Bachmeier's return, coupled with SJSU's dismal run defense, should make Boise State a solid option to go Over its team total.
by: Monty Andrews
NO EARLY MERCY
The Navy Midshipmen are in great position to continue their lengthy unbeaten run Friday night as they face off against the host UConn Huskies. Navy comes in armed with the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation at more than 350 yards per game, and should feast on a Huskies run defense ranked outside the top 100 this season and coming off a last-place FBS finish a season ago. And Navy hasn't exactly eased into games this season; the Midshipmen own the No. 7 first-half scoring mark in the country against fellow FBS programs, having averaged 23.7 points prior to the break.
Navy looks like a New Year's 6 Bowl candidate, while UConn looks like it's already focused on 2020. We like the Midshipmen to put this one away early, making good on the first-half cover.
NO ORANGE CRUSH
Is this the week the Syracuse Orange's beleaguered offensive line gets some relief? Bettors will be curious to see as the Orange look to shake out of their offensive doldrums Saturday against visiting Boston College. Syracuse comes into this one having allowed an NCAA-high 42 sacks through the first eight games; only eight schools allowed 40+ sacks all of last season. But the Eagles are equally inept when it comes to getting to the quarterback, having compiled just eight sacks through eight games (sixth-fewest in the country). It's a big reason why Boston College allows nearly 300 passing yards per game.
With the BC passing game in tatters and Syracuse averaging 37.7 points over its previous three home games, we like the Orange to exert its superiority on offense and convert the cover.
THAT LITTLE EXTRA
The Illinois Fighting Illini have plenty working in their favor as they bring a two-game winning streak into Saturday's meeting with visiting Rutgers. And while they failed to cover the only other time they were favored by 20+ points since 2016, they should see a few extra possessions this weekend – and that should make the cover easier. Illinois has forced an incredible 19 turnovers on the season, second-most in the country, and its plus-9 turnover margin ranks sixth overall. Rutgers, on the other hand, has turned it over a staggering 15 times in eight games with a minus-9 turnover differential.
If those trends continue this weekend, the Illini will find themselves in prime position to put six points on the board via a fumble recovery or interception – so the defensive/special teams TD is worth a look here at +200.
TROJANS IN TROUBLE
There's another game featuring a potential turnover mismatch, and this one's taking place out West as the USC Trojans host the Oregon Ducks in a pivotal Pac-12 showdown Saturday night. The Ducks have gone without a turnover in five of their previous six games while boasting an impressive +11 turnover differential for the season (tied for third-best in FBS). The Trojans have been better at the turnover game in recent weeks but are still among the worst teams in the country with a minus-6 turnover margin. USC also has just three interceptions, while the Ducks have thrown only one pick all season.
The Trojans have been a formidable home opponent this season, but with oddsmakers calling for this game to be a close one, even one extra possession can make a huge difference. We're leaning toward Oregon to cover.
Georgia vs. Florida
Brian Edwards
No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -6, Total 45.5
All that’s at stake in Jacksonville for Florida and Georgia on Saturday is an inside track to winning the SEC East, staying alive in hopes of making the College Football Playoff, denying the right for the other to enjoy the aforementioned fruits and – of course – 365 days of bragging rights with a bitter, border rival.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Bulldogs installed as six-point favorites with a total of 45.5. The Gators were +190 on the money line.
Georgia (6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) is off a 21-0 win over Kentucky as a 23.5-point home favorite. The 21 combined points ducked ‘under’ the 46-point total in a game that was played in wet and rainy conditions. In fact, the game remained scoreless until UGA drew first blood on a D’Andre Swift 39-yard touchdown run with 6:20 left in the third quarter.
Brian Herrien added an eight-yard TD scamper for a 14-0 lead with 1:54 remaining in the third. Swift’s three-yard TD run with 6:24 left provided the final scoring.
Georgia had advantages of 14-9 in first downs and 279-180 in total offense. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm completed 9-of-12 passes for a career-low 35 yards, while Swift ran 21 times for 179 yards and a pair of TDs. Herrien produced 60 rushing yards and one TD on 13 carries.
Kirby Smart’s team started the year with wins at Vanderbilt (30-6), vs. Murray St. (63-17), vs. Arkansas St. (55-0), vs. Notre Dame (23-17) and at Tennessee (43-14). However, in a Week 7 home game vs. South Carolina, the Gamecocks came into Athens and captured a 20-17 win in double overtime as 21-point road underdogs.
Fromm entered the game without an interception, but he was picked off three times by South Carolina sophomore CB Israel Mukuamu. South Carolina could’ve won in the first overtime after Mukuamu intercepted Fromm for a third time on the first possession, but Parker White pushed a potential game-winning field goal wide right.
In the second extra session, however, White buried a 24-yard field goal. Rodrigo Blankenship, who might be the second-best kicker in UGA history behind Kevin Butler, had a chance to answer but hooked his FGA from more than 40 yards out.
South Carolina lost starting QB Ryan Hilinski to a knee injury in the second quarter, forcing Will Muschamp to turn to a third-string QB (considering how Week 1 starter Jake Bentley is out with a season-ending injury). Hilinski was hot, too, completing 15-of-20 passes for 116 yards and one TD without an interception. His 46-yard TD pass to Bryan Edwards put the Gamecocks ahead 7-3 late in the opening stanza.
With the score knotted at 10-10, the game turned on Mukuamu’s 53-yard pick-six with 1:00 left until halftime. Georgia got a six-yard TD run from Demetris Robertson with 1:48 remaining to force overtime.
Fromm has connected on 123-of-174 passes (70.7%) for 1,406 yards with a 9/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. True freshman WR George Pickens has a team-best 23 catches for 318 yards and two TDs, while Lawrence Cager has 19 receptions for 245 yards and three TDs.
Cager, who missed the win over Kentucky with an injured shoulder, is listed as ‘questionable.’ Herrien is also a question mark with a back injury, in addition to CB Tyson Campbell, CB Mark Webb and DE Jordan Davis.
UGA has two other notable threats in its WR group, Demetris Robertson and Dominick Blaylock. Robertson, who was a five-star recruit out of Savannah, GA., that started his career at California, has 18 catches for 205 yards and three TDs.
Junior RB D’Andre Swift leads the SEC in both rushing yards (752) and TDs (seven). Swift is averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Herrien has run for 311 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. Redshirt freshman Zamir White has 245 rushing yards, two TDs and a 6.3 YPC average.
Kirby Smart’s team is ranked No. 15 in the country in rushing yards and No. 24 in scoring with its 36.0 points-per-game average. Fromm has been sacked only four times this year, with three of those coming in the loss to South Carolina.
UGA is seventh in the nation in total defense, fifth in run defense and fifth in scoring ‘D’ (10.6 points per game). The Bulldogs’ stop unit is led by junior LB Monty Rice, who has a team-high 41 tackles to go with three QB hurries and one pass broken up. Freshman LB Azeez Ojulari has a team-high 3.5 sacks and 14 QB hurries.
Florida (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) owns wins vs. Miami (24-20 in Orlando), vs. UT-Martin (45-0), at Kentucky (29-21), vs. Tennessee (34-3), vs. Towson (38-0), vs. Auburn (24-13) and at South Carolina (38-27). The UF defense came up large late in the fourth quarter against the Hurricanes in an Aug. 24 season opener.
After fourth-year junior QB Feleipe Franks went down with a season-ending injury in the third quarter at Kentucky, Kyle Trask rallied Florida from a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 29-21 decision as a 9.5-point road favorite. Trask, another fourth-year junior signal caller, had not started a game since his freshman year of high school (when he was the back-up to Houston star QB D’Eriq King), but he has been outstanding since taking over for Franks.
Trask completed 19-of-31 throws for 234 yards and two TDs without an interception against Auburn. He was sharp in UF’s only defeat as well, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs compared to one interception in a 42-28 loss at LSU that was a much closer game than the final score indicated.
Dan Mullen’s squad came up empty on a pair of fourth-and-goal attempts in the fourth quarter against the Tigers, who were aided by injuries to UF’s two best pass rushers, preseason All-American DE Jabari Zuniga and DE Jonathan Greenard. Zuniga didn’t play against Tennessee or Auburn after spraining his ankle in the third quarter of the victory at Kentucky. He tried to give it a go against LSU but clearly wasn’t 100 percent and eventually left the game.
Greenard injured his ankle the week before LSU against Auburn. He left the game after the first series in Baton Rouge. Zuniga and Greenard both sat out in the win over the Gamecocks. Both edge rushers have been listed as ‘probable’ since Monday.
Greenard, a junior who transferred to UF from Louisville, has played like an All-American since donning the orange and blue colors. He has recorded 28 tackles, seven QB hurries, four sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Zuniga has been limited to just four games, producing 11 tackles, three sacks, 2.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.
UF will also welcome the return of explosive WR Kadarius Toney, who hasn’t played since sustaining a wrist injury in the Week 2 win over UT-Martin. Toney, who is listed as ‘probable,’ turned a receiver screen into a 66-yard TD catch in the opener against Miami. The junior wideout produced 10.9 yards on 46 touches in 2018, including the-game winning TD pass in a 13-6 victory at Mississippi St. Toney played QB in high school and is sometimes featured in the Wildcat formation.
Florida went into the fourth quarter trailing South Carolina, 20-17, only to explode for 21 points in the final stanza. Trask found Freddie Swain for a 25-yard TD pass to put the Gators up 24-20 with 9:54 remaining. Next, Trask hit TE Kyle Pitts with a five-yard scoring strike. Finally, a five-yard TD toss to Trevon Grimes made it 38-20 with 4:02 left.
Trask threw for 200 yards and four TDs with one interception at South Carolina. Dameon Pierce produced 87 rushing yards and one TD on seven carries, while LaMical Perine had 68 rushing yards on 14 totes. Redshirt freshman WR Jacob Copeland had three receptions for 89 yards and one TD.
For the season, Trask has completed 67.5 percent of his throws for 1,391 yards with a 14/4 TD-INT ratio. Emory Jones, the redshirt freshman QB who saw significant playing time against Auburn and LSU, has connected on 17-of-28 (60.7%) passes for 125 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jones has run for 116 yards and one TD, averaging 6.1 YPC.
Pitts is enjoying a breakout campaign as a true sophomore, hauling in a team-high 35 receptions for 391 yards and four TDs. Swain has 21 catches for 339 yards and four TDs, while Van Jefferson has 21 grabs for 331 yards and three TDs.
Perine has 461 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC. Peirce has 248 rushing yards and three TDs on 35 attempts for a 7.1 YPC average.
Florida is ranked 25th in the nation in total defense and 12 in scoring ‘D’ (15.8 PPG). Senior LB David Reese is second in the SEC in tackles with 66. He has one TFL and one sack. Junior cornerback CJ Henderson, who was a second-team All-SEC selection last season, paces the SEC in PBU with nine even though he’s played in only five games. Henderson was injured against UT-Martin and missed the next three contests.
The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UGA, cashing at a 4-1 clip in its past five contests. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 46.6 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, who have seen their games average combined scores of 48.2 PPG. However, UF has seen back-to-back games ‘over’ the total with combined scores of 65 and 70 points.
UF has won 21 of 29 head-to-head meetings over UGA since 1990, but the Bulldogs have prevailed in the last two meetings. They ran the Gators out of town in a 42-7 triumph two seasons ago.
Georgia pulled away from UF in the fourth quarter to win by a 36-17 count as a seven-point ‘chalk’ last year. Fromm was the catalyst, hitting 17-of-24 passes for 240 yards and three TDs without an interception. Swift had 104 rushing yards and one TD on 12 carries.
Friday’s weather forecast in Jacksonville was for late showers, but the chances of rain on Saturday afternoon are only 20 percent. The conditions are expected to be cloudy with a high temperature of 68 degrees.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- The ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the past nine UF-UGA games in Jacksonville.
-- Best ATS teams: Ohio State (7-1), Auburn (7-1), Louisiana (6-1), Clemson (6-2), SMU (6-2), Georgia State (5-1-2), Oklahoma State (6-2), Tulane (6-2) and Kentucky (6-2).
-- Worst ATS squads: Akron (0-8), UMass (1-7), Nebraska (1-7), Vanderbilt (1-6), Ga. Tech (1-6), Texas State (1-5-1), Rutgers (2-6), Bowling Green (2-6), Arkansas (2-6), Mississippi State (2-6), Syracuse (2-6), FIU (2-6), North Texas (2-6), Michigan State (2-6), Ohio (2-6), Army (2-6) and Marshall (2-6).
-- Oklahoma State won’t have star WR Tylan Wallace for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Wallace had 53 receptions for 903 yards and eight TDs in eight games for the Cowboys, who are 2.5-point home favorites Saturday vs. TCU.
-- Michigan State senior LB Joe Bachie saw his collegiate career come to a premature end Thursday when the NCAA suspended him for testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing drug. Bachie was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2017 and a fourth-team All-American for the Spartans last year. He had 71 tackles, five TFL’s, four PBU, 3.5 sacks, three QB hurries and one interception in 2019.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight Utah State games. The Aggies host BYU on Saturday at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Gary Andersen’s team listed as a three-point home favorite vs. the Cougars, who will be without a pair of starters on the offensive line (Tristen Hoge and Kieffer Longson). The total was 50.5 points.
-- Indiana LB Thomas Allen is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Allen, a sophomore who had 28 tackles, two TFL’s, one sack and one interception in 2018, had recorded 17 tackles and 0.5 TFL’s before going down. IU quarterback Michael Penix is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Northwestern, so Payton Ramsey will likely get the starting nod. Ramsey has completed 72.1 percent of his passes with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio.
-- Northwestern DE Ernest Brown is out at IU with an undisclosed season-ending injury. Brown had 22 tackles, four sacks, 3.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries and three PBU for the Wildcats last year. In 2019, he produced 15 tackles, two sacks, 0.5 TFL’s and two PBU in six games. Don’t blame Northwestern’s issues on senior DE Joe Gaziano, who was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2018. Gaziano has 31 tackles, 5.5 sacks, three TFL’s, three forced fumbles, one QB hurry and one PBU. Pat Fitzgerald’s team is one of the nation’s biggest disappointments, and it’s all on the offense. The Wildcats are last in the nation, No. 130 out of 130 FBS team, in scoring with their 10.6 PPG average. They’ve scored more than 15 points only once this year, a 30-spot in a home win over UNLV. Northwestern is an 11-point underdog at IU. The Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS in nine games as a double-digit favorite on Tom Allen’s watch.
-- Northwestern RB Isaiah Bowser and WR JJ Jefferson have both ruled ‘out’ at IU.
-- Three QBs were upgraded to ‘probable’ earlier this week: FAU’s Chris Robison, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez.
-- Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman remains ‘questionable’ vs. North Carolina St. The Demon Deacons, who have had two weeks to prep for the Wolfpack, are favored by 7.5 points.
-- Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier is ‘questionable’ at San Jose St. The Spartans are 17-point home underdogs.
-- South Carolina RB Rico Dowdle is ‘out’ vs. Vanderbilt.