NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 4

College football Week 4: Early bettors pound Georgia odds for showdown vs. Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

A big clash of top-10 programs highlights Week 4 on the college football schedule. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBetUSA in New Jersey.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-12)

Georgia reached the College Football Playoff title game two years ago and is trying to burnish its credentials for this year’s CFP. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have played three lightweights so far, including in Week 3, when they thumped Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites.

Notre Dame landed a spot in last season’s CFP semifinals, where it got completely outclassed by Clemson in a 30-3 loss. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) punished hapless New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves Saturday.

Bulldogs backers didn’t wait long to get out of the gate, moving the line 2 points to -14 by Monday night.

“Huge early-season game with major playoff implications,” Chaprales said. “A loss effectively kills Notre Dame’s chances, while Georgia would face a significant uphill climb. We took some Georgia action at the opener of 12, moved quickly to 12.5 and then straight through 13 to 13.5. Despite both teams being ranked in the top 10, this number – along with the direction it’s moved – underscores just how far apart the market thinks they are.”

No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (-3)

Michigan had a Week 3 bye and probably needed it after surviving a major home upset bid in Week 2. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) went off as 21.5-point favorites against Army and never led until overtime, coming away with a 24-21 victory.

Wisconsin also comes into this noon ET Saturday clash well-rested off a Week 3 bye. The Badgers (2-0 SU and ATS) won their first two games by a combined 110-0, including a 61-0 Week 2 victory over Central Michigan laying 34 points at home.

“On one side, you have a public team in Michigan that hasn’t looked great – 0-2 ATS, nearly lost outright at home to Army – and on the other, a Wisconsin squad that’s tossed a pair of perfect games against minnows so far,” Chaprales said. “Recreational bettors will nonetheless likely be interested in the Wolverines at plus money.”

Early bettors apparently like the host Badgers, though, with the line moving to -3.5, back to -3, then returning to -3.5.

No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)

Auburn got a resume-building win over Oregon in Week 1, then moved to 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over a couple of lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers crunched Kent State 55-16, cashing as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) has also been good to bettors so far, cashing in all three of its outings, including a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

The line ticked up a half-point to A&M -4 for this Southeastern Conference showdown, set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

“Key conference opener that could determine the direction each of these programs is headed,” Chaprales said. “Auburn and true freshman quarterback Bo Nix passed their first test of season by sliding past Oregon, while A&M didn’t put up much resistance against Clemson a few weeks ago, needing a last-second touchdown to get the backdoor cover. Slight adjustment off the opener of 3.5, but minimal activity since.”

No. 11 Utah Utes at No. 24 Southern California Trojans (+3.5)

Southern Cal lost starting quarterback JT Daniels (ACL) in Week 1, and while true freshman Kedon Slovis looked superb in Week 2 against Stanford, he looked his age in Week 3. Slovis threw three interceptions at Brigham Young, and the Trojans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell just short 30-27 laying 5 points.

Utah rolled over that same BYU team in Week 1, on the road no less, with a 30-12 victory as a 5-point chalk. The Utes (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) blanked Idaho State 31-0 giving 36.5 points at home Saturday.

This line bounced between Utah -3.5 and -4, sitting at the latter Monday night, for a Pac-12 After Dark clash at 9 p.m. ET Friday.

“This game was shaping up as Utah’s coming-out party, but USC’s loss to BYU put a damper on that,” Chaprales said. “The Pac-12 South figures to be Utah’s to lose this season, but needless to say, a slip-up in a high-profile prime-time spot would be very detrimental.”

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

SATURDAY, SEPT. 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

ULM at IOWA STATE...ULM was on 7-4 DD dog run into last season when dropping pair, but recovered at FSU on Sept. 7. Warhawks still just 5-11 last 16 on board. ISU 1-5 spread skid as home chalk, though is 5-0-1 vs. line last six years after facing Iowa.
Slight to Iowa State, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at OHIO STATE...RedHawks 1-10 vs. line last 11 outside of MAC. Buckeyes 4-1 vs. points last five non-Big Ten at big Horseshoe, 8-5 last 13 laying 20 or more.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at CLEMSON...49ers have covered 4 of last 5 as DD dog (1-0 for Will Healy). Dabo no covers last four vs. non-ACC at Death Valley.
Charlotte, based on team trends.

UCONN at INDIANA...Edsall 1-1 vs. line TY but just 1-5 last six as away dog. Hoosiers 1-3 last four laying DD vs. FBS-level foes though Tom Allen is above water at 8-6 as chalk since 2017.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

UCF at PITT...Narduzzi 5-2-1 vs. line at home since LY but still just 10-16-1 vs. spread at Heinz Field since arriving in 2015. Also just 2-8-1 as non-ACC host vs. line since 2015. UCF 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor (all visiting chalk), 18-8-1 vs. line since 2017.
UCF, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at OHIO...Cajuns 4-1-1 vs. spread as visitor for Billy Napier LY, also 4-1-1 as DD dog since 2018. Solich, however, 7-2 vs. line at home vs. FBS-level foes since 2017 and 5-2 vs. spread last seven vs. non-MAC FBS-level foes.
Ohio, based on Solich trends.

NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS...Huskers have won SU last three meetings and covered big last two. Frost covered last four on Big Ten road in 2018 and also covered last seven Big Ten games. Lovie only 4-10 as home dog with Illini and 6-15 last 21 vs. line in Big Ten.
Nebraska, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at BUFFALO...Buff 8-1-1 vs. line at home vs. BCS-level teams past two seasons. Leipold 17-8-1 vs. spread since 2017 vs. FBS-level foes. Rod Carey’s NIU teams, however, were 11-5 as road dog past five years.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MIAMI-FLA...McElwain 4-8 vs. spread last 12 vs. FBS-level teams (at Fla and CMU). Chips were 4-1 as DD dog LY for Bonamego but 0-1 for McElwain TY. Canes were only 5-7 as DD chalk for Richt past two seasons, though Diaz covered last week vs. BCU.
Slight to Miami, Fl., based on team trends.

OLD DOMINION at VIRGINIA...ODU 10-17-1 last 28 on board since late 2016 but Monarchs 3-1 last four as DD dog and covered Sept. 7 at VPI. Cavs 11-4-1 last 16 vs. line since LY and 6-1 last 7 vs. line non-ACC.
Virginia, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at UMASS...Walt Bell 0-3 vs. line with UMass, Minutemen now on 5-11 spread skid. Coastal has won and covered last two in series, and Chants 6-2-1 last nine vs. line away.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Cats have won last three in series, all as dog. If favored, note Dantonio just 3-10 as visiting chalk since 2015. Pat Fitz 14-5-1 as dog since 2016.
Northwestern, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.

TROY at AKRON...Troy was 6-2 as chalk away from home past two years. Trojans 12-5 vs. spread away since 2016. Zips 0-3 vs. line for Arth, 3-11-1 last 15 vs. points as host.
Troy, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at RUTGERS...BC 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Rutgers had covered 6 in a row before Iowa loss, and has covered last four at New Brunswick. Ash 7-4 last 11 as home dog.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at SYRACUSE...WMU just 4-11 vs. spread last 15 vs. FBS-level foes. Also no covers last four as DD dog. Babers 7-2 last nine as chalk.
Syracuse based on team trends.

BALL STATE at NC STATE...Ball 3-9 last 12 as visiting dog and just 3-10 as DD dog since 2017 (though 1-0 TY). NCS 5-1 last six as home chalk vs. FBS-level foes (2-0 TY).
NC State, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN...Harbaugh just 1-7 vs. line last 8 away from Ann Arbor. Mich no covers last six since late 2018. If dog Harbaugh only 2-3 in role with Wolverines. Badgers however just 1-6 as Madison chalk LY, though did rout CMU on Sept. 7.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at COLORADO STATE...Rockets 9-3 as visiting chalk since 2015, though just 3-7 last ten vs. spread non-MAC. Rams have covered just 3 of last 11 in Fort Collins, and Bobo just 4-8 last 12 as dog after covering 6 of previous 7 in role.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Lobos had failed to cover four straight in series prior to 42-35 win LY. UNM 0-8 as home chalk since late 2016, just 8-19 last 27 overall vs. spread. Ags however just 2-7 last nine as road dog.
Slight to New Mexico State, based on extended series trends.

WASHINGTON at BYU...Huskies just 3-7 last 10 as chalk away from Seattle. Also just 4-7 last 11 vs. line non-Pac 12. Sitake on 15-6 spread run since late 2017.
BYU, based on team trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE...Buffs entered 2018 on 4-11-1 spread run in Pac 12. Home team has won last four and covered last six in series.
Arizona State, based on series trends.

CAL at OLE MISS...Bears have covered last four as visiting dog and are 7-2 last nine getting points. Cal has covered last three as non-Pac visitor. Rebs on 1-8 spread skid since mid 2018 but did cover last game against FBS foe (vs. Ark). If Rebs a dog note 0-5 mark in role at home under Matt Luke.
Cal, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA...Vols actually 3-1 as road dog LY, though UT on 6-12 spread skid since late 2017 (6-9 Pruitt). Gators have long held upper hand in series and have covered 7 of last 9 meetings. Dan Mullen on 9-5 spread run since early 2018.
Florida, based on series trends.

GEORGIA STATE at TEXAS STATE...GS no covers last six (0-5-1) on Sun Belt road. Bobcats have covered last two in series though 0-3 vs. line for Spavital in early going.
Slight to Texas State, based on series trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at ALABAMA...Saban 4-11 vs. spread last 15 hosting non-SEC foes. Also 1-7 vs. line last 8 in final non-SEC game. USM 8-4 as dog for Jay Hopson since 2017.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Home side has won and covered last four in series. Stoops 14-8 as dog however since 2016. Moorhead 6-1 as Starkville chalk since LY.
Slight to Mississippi State, based on series home trends.

LSU at VANDERBILT...Derek Mason 1-6 as home dog since 2017, 5-12 overall last 17 as dog. LSU four straight covers vs. FBS-level foes since late 2018.
LSU, based on team trends.

APP STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...App State 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from Boone, 6-1 last seven vs. number non-Sun Belt.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.

AUBURN at TEXAS A&M...Malzahn 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 vs. line at College Station, and road team 6-0-1 vs. points last seven meetings. Jimbo however on 13-3 spread run with Ags and is 8-1 vs. spread at Kyle Field.
Slight to Auburn, based on series trends.

WYOMING at TULSA...Bohl is hot, has covered 7 of last 8 on board since late 2018. Bohl has also covered last four as a dog.
Wyoming, based on recent trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSOURI...Muschamp 12-3 last 15 as dog, is also 3-0 SU and vs. line against Barry Odom. Tigers 9-2 vs. line last 11 at home.
Slight to South Carolina, based on Muschamp trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS...Curious series trend with road team covering last five. Neal Brown was 6-2 as road chalk the past two years at Troy.
Slight to West Virginia, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS...Tom Herman only 4-7 as home chalk since 2017 with Horns. Gundy has won last 4 SU vs. Texas and was 4-0 LY as a dog.
Oklahoma State, based on team and series trends.

BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE...BGSU just 6-16 last 22 as dog (0-2 for Loeffler). Falcs 12-27 vs. points since 2016.
Slight to Kent State, based on BG negatives.

SMU at TCU...Metroplex war! Frogs have won SU last seven meetings and 2-0-1 vs. line last three. But Patterson just 4-15-1 vs. spread at Fort Worth since 2016. SMU 3-0 SU and vs. line in 2019
Slight to SMU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at ARKANSAS...Ark just 5-9 as chalk since 2016 (3-3 for Chad Morris), also just 4-14 SU last 18 since late 2017. SJSU 8-3 last 11 as DD dog and has covered 5 of last 7 on road.
San Jose State, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at UAB...UAB 19-9-1 vs. spread since returning in 2017, 5-2 as DD chalk since LY. Blazers also 10-2-1 vs. spread at Legion Field since 2017.
UAB, based on team trends.

OREGON at STANFORD...Tree has won and covered last three in series, as home dog note Stanford 5-0 in role since 2009. Ducks 4-14-1 vs. spread last 18 away from Eugene.
Stanford, based on team and series trends.

BAYLOR at RICE...Old rivals from SWC days. Getting 20 or more, Bloomgren 6-2 vs. line since taking over Rice in 2017. Under 20 points, just 2-4. Rice just 2-7 vs. points last 9 as home dog. Matt Rhule has covered both as road chalk since taking over Bears in 2017, though only 2-4 laying DD.
Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

UTSA at NORTH TEXAS...Home team has covered last five in series. Roadrunners just 3-8 last 11 as DD chalk (0-2 TY). UNT however on 1-8 spread skid, 2-10 last 12.
Slight to North Texas, based on series home trends.

NOTRE DAME at GEORGIA...Brian Kelly 3-3 as dog since 2016, but 0-2 as DD dog since 2015. Georgia 22-9 vs. spread last 31 vs. FBS foes.
Georgia, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at FLORIDA STATE...Satterfield on 16-3-1 spread uptick at App State and ‘Ville (2-0 with Cards). FSU 8-17-3 vs. spread since 2017, 4-10-1 for Taggart.
Louisville, based on team trends.

NEVADA at UTEP...Pack just 4-9 last 13 vs. line as visitor, no covers last three as road chalk. But Pack on mild 7-4 spread uptick. Miners 1-6 vs. spread at Sun Bowl for Dimel, 2-10 last 12 vs. spread as host.
Nevada, based on UTEP negatives.

UCLA at WASHINGTON STATE...Bruins now on 23-42 spread skid since 2014 (5-10 for Chip). Leach on 11-5 spread uptick.
Washington State, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Utags on 11-3-1 spread uptick (2-0 for Andersen), Rocky 1-7 vs. line last eight as host!
Utah State, based on team trends.
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By: Monty Andrews

TROUBLE FOR SPARTANS?

The Michigan State Spartans will have to do without one of their standout offensive linemen until November. Kevin Jarvis suffered a knee injury in last week's stunning loss to Arizona State and is expected to be out for six or seven weeks, according to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio.

Jarvis and the rest of the Spartans' offensive line had their hands full in last week's loss, with Michigan State producing just 3.2 yards per carry while having five passes broken up and allowing a sack. Tyler Higby will take over for Jarvis at left tackle going into this weekend's encounter with host Northwestern.

And while the Wildcats were torched 30-14 by UNLV last time out, they ranked 26th in run defense a season ago and held the Spartans to just 19 points in last year's meeting at Spartan Stadium. We like MSU to come in below its team total of 24.5.

NOT SO FAST!

Don't get too excited, Dillon Gabriel fans. Central Florida head coach Josh Huepel isn't ready to name the sensational freshman as the starting quarterback for Saturday's visit to Pittsburgh. This despite Gabriel going off in last week's statement victory over visiting Stanford, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns.

Gabriel has the hot hand ahead of season-opening No. 1 Brandon Wimbush and the recently-returned-from-injury Darriel Mack, both of whom were expected to see action against the Cardinal. In the end, Wimbush saw just one snap while Mack didn't play.

It would be foolhardy for UCF to pivot away from Gabriel, whose advanced level of play should allow the Knights to dominate the time of possession. That, combined with Pitt's ugly offensive numbers (14.7 PPG, 2.8 YPC), make UCF a great pick ATS.

DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Collin Hill has suffered yet another devastating knee injury. The Colorado State quarterback suffered a torn left ACL in last week's loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks and will miss the remainder of the season.

That could be it for Hill's football career, as this is the third time he has torn the ACL in his left knee. Hill was enjoying a terrific season for the Rams, having completed better than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 840 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Patrick O'Brien will take over the starting role beginning with Saturday's game against visiting Toledo.

This line has shifted three points in the Rockets’ favor since opening at -6.5, and that might be too much movement. O'Brien was impressive in relief last time out, while CSU went 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of 7-plus points in 2018. We like the home side here.

A GREAT UNKNOWN

Saturday's tall task might have become a whole lot tougher for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare to open their SEC schedule against No. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is considered questionable for the game after suffering an upper-body injury early in last week's victory over Kent State. Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn considers Brown "day-to-day". The projected first-round pick in next year's NFL draft has seven tackles (one for loss) in three games, and has 22.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in his three-plus years at Auburn.

Brown's absence would be a devastating one for the Tigers' defense – and a major boost to a Texas A&M rush attack averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry. Look to either the Aggies ATS or the Over on their team total if Brown is ruled out.
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Week 4 - Upset Alerts
September 18, 2019
By Matt Blunt

No complaints about bad numbers in terms of last week's plays, as they were more about backing bad teams that simply got overwhelmed by superior talent. Indiana and New Mexico just couldn't keep Ohio State and Notre Dame off the scoreboard to fall well short of even sniffing a cover as big underdogs.

The news wasn't all bad though as Air Force managed to take full advantage of the brutal situational spot Colorado found themselves in. The Falcons nearly coughed up the game (and cover) after having lead for the bulk of that contest, but they managed to hold on long enough to get the outright win in OT, to have the selections avoid it's second consecutive 0-3 ATS week.

A 1-2 ATS record last week with the lone cover winning outright as well is the step in the right direction, and while I may have wasted most of my luck with the huge 20+ underdogs last year, I'm confident that things will turn around here soon for all the underdogs in this weekly piece.

So while it's highly understandable that backing these plays this week may be tough to do given recent results, that narrative actually ties in quite well with the specific teams involved in this week's plays. We've got a few teams that the general betting market wants little to do with after what they've seen from them in the first few weeks of the season. There has generally been nothing but criticism, ridicule and laughter for how some of these teams have performed so far this year, and in terms of the perception vs reality notion, that actually does present some inherent value in their point spreads. Now it's just up to these teams (and myself with the selections) to get the job done.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS

Michigan (+3.5) vs Wisconsin

Back in the summer when I penned this piece for the site, I did so always having this game in mind and circled on the calendar for a spot to back the Wolverines. Even with Michigan narrowly beating Army last time out, and Jim Harbaugh's team on a 0-6 ATS run dating back to the end of last year, I think this is just the spot, opponent, and time for Michigan to get their 2019 season rolling on the right foot.

The betting market has been quick to get on Harbaugh and the Wolverines this season, talking about how it's the same old, outdated Harbaugh offense that's holding the Wolverines from reaching their full potential yet again this year, and it seems inevitable to most that Michigan will find new and interesting ways to blow it in the biggest games of the year like they have in the past. Going up against a Wisconsin team that's yet to allow a single point this season is a situation that looks like a great spot to further those beliefs as Michigan is a team that very little want anything to do with right now, other then to fade them. Given how well the Badgers have looked so far, it's no surprise that the bulk of the action (70%+) has already come Wisconsin's way.

But being 'tested' early on in a season is something I prefer to look at as a positive for a team like Michigan, because it gets those competitive juices flowing, allows them to know how they'll react when facing adversity, and the more they come out on the positive end of those contests – like they did vs Army – the confidence only grows.

Conversely, Wisconsin has gone up against two cupcakes so far and have yet to had their feet to the fire. There is plenty of confidence having outscored opponents 110-0 through two games, but the Badgers have yet to see any sort of adversity and therefore, we've yet to see how they react when they do so. Sure, they could pass that first test with flying colors, but I'm not sure that will be the case against a team that's as highly ranked or as talented as the Wolverines are. You'd always prefer some early season struggles to come up against a much lesser team where the likelihood of overcoming it is much greater – say like a team like Army, or Illinois, Indiana etc – and I'm not sure this Wisconsin team has what it takes to take the heat when it comes down to it. Yes, Wisconsin could have 'revenge' on their mind after last year's 38-13 loss to Harbaugh's squad, but that score was telling the other way as well in that Harbaugh and Michigan understand how to move the ball against a tough defense like Wisconsin's and will be able to do so again.

The “Redemption Tour” for Michigan might have ended in disappointment for the Wolverines last year with their performance against the Buckeyes at the end of the campaign, but it will be that take no prisoners attitude that serves Michigan well in this game with many doubters lurking out there. With the market's perception already highly negative on Harbaugh yet again, he and his team knows that there aren't many greater feelings then proving the majority wrong, and I expect them to do exactly that in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Tennessee (+14) vs Florida

Speaking of teams that continually get ridiculed and laughed at in the betting market, we've got the Tennessee Volunteers catching double-digits in the Swamp this weekend. It's definitely hard to defend what we've seen from the Volunteers so far in 2019 having dropped game easily winnable games to Georgia State and BYU, as this is a program that not only can't shake the choke job persona in the market, but sees that notion grow seemingly every week.

Yet, sometimes all it takes for a program in the midst of getting crapped on is to go out and beat up on a little brother so to speak. Tennessee did that last week with a 45-0 win (ATS cover as well) vs Chattanooga, and any internal doubts/issues with confidence inside that locker room had to get a boost. There is no redoing those losses to Georgia State and BYU, especially how they happened, but with those still so fresh in the minds of many bettors, the general market wants absolutely nothing to do with the Volunteers. But any athlete will tell you, being counted out and endlessly ridiculed and doubted, only makes the redemption that much sweeter when it comes around.

On the other side of the coin, we've got a Gators team who is turning to QB Kyle Trask this week after Feleipe Franks went down for the year. Bettors saw Trask step in and lead the Gators to a comeback against Kentucky last week, so there is plenty of positive reinforcement there to further get units down against Tennessee in this game. Yet, it's still Trask's first career collegiate start under center, and that has to bring some concerns in its own right, never mind the fact that he's expected to lead his team to a two-TD victory.

Perception and reality just don't appear to be close to meeting in my eyes for this game, and that's probably why this point spread is a little higher then it should be in my view. Yes, we've seen Trask perform well in limited action this year, but what did he have to lose in that scenario? Had he not gone out and led the Gators to a comeback last week it would have essentially been a free pass for him given the situation he stepped into, and leading the comeback like he did only inflated the general perception about his talent.

But the fact that he had nothing to lose in terms of perception from stepping into that scenario allowed him to play free and easy on those final drives, and relaxed athletes with nothing to lose tend to always perform at their best. This week, the pressure amps up quite a bit as there is much more on his shoulders in terms of potentially suffering a loss here, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Gators react.

Besides, wouldn't it be a complete Tennessee thing to do to lose their first two games of the year in the fashion that they did, and then turn around and go into the Swamp and get an outright upset victory? I'm not sure that will end up being the case, but the Volunteers will put their best foot forward in trying to do so, and keep this game much closer then a number like this suggests.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Miami OH (+39) at Ohio State

As has been the case with my handicapping in other sports this year, there are plenty of times where plays of mine end up being losses as they come a game/week too early. Fading Ohio State on the road last week in their Big 10 opener proved to be a wrong cap by far, but I'm hoping that I was just a week too early on fading this Buckeyes team that's still getting talked up too much in my opinion this year.

This also isn't the greatest spot for the Buckeyes to cover a huge number like this, facing a weak non-conference foe at home, sandwiched between two Big 10 road tilts. Indiana proved to be no match for the Buckeyes, but a trip to Nebraska next week should be much tougher. This week's game against the Redhawks has all the makings of a “get in, get out” type game for Ohio State, as they'll establish a comfortable lead early and then sit on the ball after that. There is no need to send a message to say, the rest of the Big 10, like they did last week against Indiana, so they aren't likely to keep their foot on the gas late like they did last week, and to win, stay healthy, and give some 2nd and 3rd stringers meaningful reps has to be the goal.

Finally, Ohio State comes into this game with a 2-0 ATS record, and during the regular season, the Buckeyes have only covered the number three straight times on one occasion dating back to October 2016. Put it all together and I believe we see this Miami (Ohio) team that's already 1-0 ATS this year as a 20+ underdog get the ATS cash again.
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