NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 5

College football Week 5: Early bettors hammer Ohio State odds vs Nebraska
Patrick Everson

Ohio State has throttled four straight opponents, and bettors expect more of the same in Week 5. The Buckeyes opened as 14.5-point favorites at Nebraska and were quickly bet up to -17.5.

Week 5 of the college football season has already seen a big move in a Big Ten game. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA.

No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+14.5)

Ohio State has yet to be challenged so far this season, winning all its games in blowout fashion, none more so than in Week 4. The Buckeyes (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) throttled Miami-Ohio by the highly unusual score of 76-5 as 38.5-point home favorites Saturday.

Nebraska’s first month has been up and down, as it came away with a 3-1 SU mark but was 1-3 ATS. The Cornhuskers went off as 13-point favorites at Illinois on Saturday and trailed by 14 on multiple occasions – including 14-0 less than halfway through the first quarter – but rallied for a 42-38 victory.

Oddsmakers and early bettors expect the Huskers to struggle at home in a Saturday night clash.

“Already a sizable adjustment on this game, from 14.5 to 17.5, with all the early support squarely behind the Buckeyes,” Chaprales said of a big early move at PointsBet. “For evidence, look no further than Nebraska needing a second-half comeback to slip past a poor Illinois team, and Ohio State looking every part the national title contender it’s been pegged.”

No. 25 Southern California Trojans at No. 17 Washington Huskies (-9)

Washington was dealt an at-the-time stunning loss by California in Week 2, but bounced back strong the past two weeks. On Saturday at Brigham Young, the Huskies (3-1 SU and ATS) put up three touchdowns in both the first and third quarters, breezing to a 45-19 win laying 6.5 points.

Southern Cal is suffering quarterback attrition, losing JT Daniels (ACL) for the season in Week 1, then having true freshman Kedon Slovis suffer a likely concussion on the first possession against Utah on Friday night. But in stepped third-string Matt Fink, leading the Trojans (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) to a 30-23 victory as 3.5-point home underdogs.

Slovis’ status for a Saturday afternoon kick isn’t yet clear, but bettors are taking an early position against USC, with Washington already up a point to -10.

“Despite beating Utah outright as home ‘dogs, USC’s roller-coaster season took another turn after losing Slovis,” Chaprales said. “Fink performed well in relief, but the market likely won’t be too bullish on his prospects heading on the road to play a Washington squad whose one loss isn’t looking so bad now.”

Indeed, Cal is now 4-0 SU after winning at Mississippi on Saturday.

No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)

Notre Dame had a better showing than many expected on its trip between the hedges in Southeastern Conference country. The Fighting Irish (2-1 SU and ATS) gave Georgia all it could handle, losing 23-17 but cashing as 15.5-point pups Saturday.

Virginia is off to a 4-0 SU start (2-1-1 ATS) but struggled early against Conference USA’s Old Dominion on Saturday. The Cavaliers trailed 17-0 in the second quarter, but didn’t give up another score the rest of the way, winning 28-17 as hefty 27-point home faves.

“We’re not anticipating too much support for a ranked Virginia team that struggled to beat Florida State and Old Dominion in the past two weeks,” Chaprales said. “Particularly facing an Irish squad that was in it until the very end at Georgia, in the most high-profile game of the week.”

Mississippi State Rebels at No. 7 Auburn Tigers (-10.5)

Auburn spent the first month of the season getting it done on the field and against the oddsmakers, with a 4-0 SU and ATS mark, including a solid Week 4 win. The Tigers went to Texas A&M as 4-point ‘dogs Saturday and led by double digits much of the way while posting a 28-20 victory.

After an upset home loss to Kansas State, Mississippi State bounced back with a victory to open SEC play. The Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) coasted past Kentucky 28-13 giving 5.5 points at home Saturday.

“No early movement or notable positions here yet, an indicator that the number is about right,” Chaprales said. “We’re expecting the public to back Auburn after an impressive win at Texas A&M.”

Some of that support may have come in a little later Monday, as PointsBet ticked Auburn up to -11.

Navy at Memphis
Joe Nelson

After an exciting finish last Thursday in the AAC West, the division will be in the spotlight again this week to open up the final college football weekend of September. Memphis and Navy played to a one-point game last season before divergent paths the rest of the way and this will be a big division test between still undefeated teams.

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers
At Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, September 26, (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Memphis -10½, Over/Under 54
Last Meeting: 2018, at Navy (+6½) 22, Memphis 21

With a run of six straight bowl seasons heading into the 2018 season there was little reason to expect that Navy wouldn’t bounce back from an opening week loss at Hawai’i, falling 59-41 last September in the run vs. pass non-conference test. Navy did just that with a 22-21 escape hosting Memphis but that would be the highlight of a stunning 3-10 season for the Midshipmen.

Ken Niumatalolo is 89-58 in his career at Navy since taking over Navy for the 2007 bowl game and since moving to AAC play the squad is 21-12 in conference games including 1-0 this season with a 42-10 win over East Carolina on September 14. Climbing back to the postseason looks realistic for Navy though there are not many soft spots in a deep American Athletic Conference path while non-conference games with Air Force, Notre Dame, and Army remain.

Senior quarterback Malcolm Perry has led the offense in both passing and rushing with 254 passing yards in two games for more than is usually expected from the option attack. Perry saw the field significantly in most games last season and he was the primary quarterback in the Memphis game with 36 rushes for 166 yards as well as a pair of completions. At 5’9” he is certainly among the smallest FBS quarterbacks in the nation.

Memphis started last season 4-4 coming off a 10-win season in 2017. The Tigers would rally for four straight November wins in conference play to claim a second consecutive AAC West title (shared with Tulane and Houston last season), where they lost for a second straight season to UCF in the championship game in Orlando. The Tigers are 29-14 under Mike Norvell who started in 2016, including a 3-0 start this season, but Memphis has not yet won a bowl game in his tenure.

Norvell was a discussed coaching candidate for some major conference openings last off-season and starting this season he notched his first win over Mississippi for the Tigers with a 15-10 opening result. That win will help keep the Tigers in the top Group of 5 bid conversation if they remain perfect even if a banner year for Ole Miss doesn’t look likely. Memphis won’t have to play UCF in the regular season this year but the East draw is difficult with a road game ahead at Temple plus games at South Florida and home against Cincinnati in the season finale as Navy ironically is in the ‘West’ division despite being among the easternmost programs in the nation.

Memphis has a chance for a great season with junior quarterback Brady White back and off to a productive start while the Tigers have 681 rushing yards in three games. The difference this season for Memphis could be on defense with great returning experience and so far positive early returns with only 40 points allowed in three games. Last year Memphis allowed more than 27 points per game in conference play and nearly 32 points per game overall.

Navy has outrushed foes by nearly 600 yards so far this season but Memphis is one of the few teams that can keep pace with the Midshipmen on the ground with Navy only having a 264-233 edge in rushing in last season’s meeting with Henderson’s big runs leading to 9.7 yards per attempt for the Tigers in that game. Memphis has had at least 177 rushing yards in all three games including putting up 312 in the last contest vs. South Alabama.

Last season:

Navy led 9-7 at halftime getting a touchdown with seven seconds remaining in the half but failing going for two. Memphis took over in the third quarter with a pair of long runs from Darrell Henderson who went for 78 and 59 for scores as the Tigers led 21-9. Perry added his second touchdown run early in the fourth quarter as Navy climbed within five on a short-field score after a fumble.

The Navy defense forced a 3-and-out and the Midshipmen turned in a 13-play 56-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with just over two minutes to go. After Navy missed again on the two-point try, Memphis only needed a late field goal and White led the Tigers to the Navy 34-yard-line before the drive stalled and the Tigers came up short on 4th down. Memphis had a 378-316 edge in yards but a 4-1 deficit in turnovers.

Historical Trends:

-- Navy is 3-1 S/U and 4-0 ATS in this series as division opponents since 2015.

-- Historically few teams have been as good as Navy in the road underdog role with an amazing 84-42-1 ATS mark since 1980 including a 56-23 ATS record since 1994 and a 23-12 ATS mark under Niumatalolo.

-- When getting 10 or more points as a road underdog Navy is 30-11 ATS since 1994 (9-4 under Niumatalolo since 2008), though splitting last season in that role.

-- Under Norvell, Memphis is 20-4 S/U and 14-10 ATS at home including going 6-1 S/U and ATS at home last season.

-- Since 2004 Memphis has performed well as heavy chalk with a 27-14 ATS record when laying 10 or more points with only two S/U upset losses at that high of a price, one of which was the 2015 home meeting with Navy.

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24/46), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Badgers have outscored opponents 100-0 in the first half of games but won’t have the top safeties on their depth chart for the opening 30 minutes since starters Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson were each suspended for targeting against Michigan. Projected starter Scott Nelson has already been lost for the season and top backup Madison Cone is questionable with a leg injury, so the program’s depth at the position is about to be tested. We’ll see if the Wildcats are able to take shots on the road and take advantage, but new QB Hunter Johnson has really struggled and went for 6-for-17 in his first road game against a Stanford defense nowhere near as good as Wisconsin’s. Northwestern should get WR Bennett Skowronek back but is likely to be without starting corner Trae Williams for a second straight contest. The Wildcats last won in Madison in 2015 (13-7) and won last season’s game 31-17, so Paul Chryst should have no problem motivating the Badgers as he seeks to improve to 3-2 against Pat Fitzgerald.

BYU (-2.5/61) at Toledo, 12 p.m ET, BTN: The Rockets failed to win last year’s high-profile home game against Miami but took down Tulsa, Fresno State and Iowa State in succession the previous three years, so BYU must be wary coming into the Glass Bowl favored. Toledo is 17-3 at home under Jason Candle, who just won at Colorado State thanks to RB Bryant Roback’s 228 rushing yards and four touchdowns. BYU has seen better teams than the Rockets all season but will be playing for the fifth time in as many weeks after home games against Utah, USC and Washington and a wild comeback road win at Tennessee the last time it left Provo. With a bye up next, we’re about to see what the Cougars have left in the tank in a critical swing game to their season. BYU ranks 116th in the country in stopping the run and will face a team that uses tempo more than anyone they’ve seen, though Toledo’s use of it against the Cougs’ bigger athletes will be predicated on how successful they are on first down. BYU’s defense is down senior LB Zayne Anderson (shoulder) and freshman Keenan Pili while the offense lost speedy South Carolina transfer RB Ty’Son Williams. Rice grad transfer Supe Eskupa is now likely to get more carries.

Rutgers at Michigan (-27.5/49), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Jim Harbaugh’s seat is scalding and nothing the Wolverines do here is going to relieve that pressure. Opportunities to rebound start with next week’s homecoming game against Iowa, so this matchup with a heavy underdog that the Wolverines have beaten by a combined margin of 204-37 over the past four years will provide one last chance for younger players on the back end of the roster to get playing time. Turnover-prone Scarlet Knights sophomore Art Sitkowski had some nice moments against Boston College and should again get the start with McLane Carter dealing with a concussion. Wolverines backup QB Dylan McCaffrey took an awful hit against Wisconsin and is doubtful to play, so covering this large a spread may end up in the hands of a run game and redshirt freshman Joe Milton, particularly since starter Shea Patterson has looked banged up. Milton is raw but definitely the most promising QB prospect on the roster. Starting TE Sean McKeon won’t play.

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-24/51), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: The Blue Raiders haven’t suffered much offensively in years but are struggling to run the ball well while understandably sputtering without all-time leading passer Brent Stockstill, who threw for over 10,000 career yards before graduating. QB Asher O’Hara has accounted for 79 percent of the team’s offense but is more of a runner who should struggle against a physical defense. The Hawkeyes have Michigan game film to watch for next week’s clash and will therefore see a ton of that Week 1 MTSU film so they’ll be well prepared. The Blue Raiders are 0-16 against ranked foes but have covered in each of their last two outings. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is just 17-17 coming off a bye.

Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt (-7/52.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Commodores came into the season looking for the first winning season of the Derek Mason era and are dangerously close to having realistically no shot at a second straight bowl bid before September even ends. Holding serve here would definitely help stabilize matters before an important and winnable game at Ole Miss next week. NIU comes off its first bye week under new head coach Thomas Hammock, so expect to see a few wrinkles from a team looking for the program’s second SEC win in 12 tries, having last defeated pre-Nick Saban Alabama in 2003. After a 44-8 loss at Nebraska that featured onside kicks, multiple pooch punts and a fake punt, NIU is certain to change things up and obviously isn’t shy about taking risks. Cal transfer Ross Bowers and returning MAC Championship MVP Marcus Childers are competent QBs, while Ball State grad transfer Riley Neal has shown improvement for Vandy over the past few weeks and has plenty of experience against NIU in MAC play over the past few years.

Kansas at TCU (-14.5/49), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Jayhawks followed their impressive upset of Boston College up by hanging with West Virginia, so Les Miles has at least succeeded in upgrading the quality of play early. We’ll see if Kansas wears down once we get deeper into Big 12 play, but Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs are going to see a much improved team on tape and should therefore have no excuse to suffer a letdown coming off an upset loss to SMU. Freshman Max Duggan nearly rallied TCU past the Mustangs in last week’s fourth quarter and will continue to start ahead of junior Mike Collins. Kansas stunned TCU in Lawrence 27-26 last season and has a chance to win again with Pooka Williams expected to get more touches, loosening up a Frogs defense for Carter Stanley to try and take advantage. If he plays well, expect the Jayhawks to hang around.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-27/70), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Red Raiders will need Alan Bowman’s backups to do thir part in order to keep this from getting ugly. With Texas Tech’s top passer sidelined, winning a shootout is out the window and new head coach Matt Wells will seek to try and keep Jalen Hurts off the field by moving the chains via dual-threat QB Jett Duffey and Rice transfer Jackson Tyner and the short passing game. It’s a shame we won’t see Bowman but that makes it clear Tech’s hopes of hanging around for more than a half hinge on a defense that has looked improved despite losing key linebacker Dakota Allen to the NFL. Jordyn Brooks is headed there too, but probably needs more help to handle the Sooners. Jalen Hurts is the national leader in QBR but deflected any Heisman talk this week, calling it rat poison. This should be one of those games where he’s able to pad stats if Lincoln Riley plays him deep into the third quarter and it’s not too windy. Thunderstorms could be in the equation for the second half which makes Sooners 1H bets awfully appealing.

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-23/61), 12 p.m. ET, SECN: The Razorbacks come off an embarrassing loss to San Jose State that has them at the low point of the Chad Morris era. That speaks volumes considering they went winless in SEC play last season and have a run of losses in 17 of 18 conference games going, which includes 12 in succession. Left tackle Colton Jackson should be back, so the offensive line play should be better. The Hogs will have a motivated starter going in A&M transfer Nick Starkel, who couldn’t beat out Kellen Bond and couldn’t beat the Spartans last week after throwing five interceptions. We’ll see if he can rebound with the fan base turning on the entire program at this point. Suiting up and performing in front of the 12th Man is therefore less daunting than going out and facing the music in Fayetteville, but Starkel is nonetheless up against a great challenge even with this game being played in Arlington instead of College Station. Texas A&M has defeated the Hogs in seven straight, though four of the last five have been in seven-point games that came down to the final few plays.

Late-night Snacks

Washington State at Utah (-6/56.5), 10 p.m. ET, FS1: The Cougs come off a terrible loss to UCLA in which they gave up 50 second-half points in regulation to lose 67-63, so this is probably the right time to go out on the road as they won’t be back in Pullman for a game until homecoming on Oct. 19. A defense that has a lot of blushes to atone for may not have to deal with top RB Zack Moss, who missed the second half of last week’s disappointing loss to USC. QB Tyler Huntley was also rumored to be leaning toward sitting after suffering a foot injury and limping off against the Trojans but he’s defiantly said he’ll be out there for this one. With a bye on deck for the Utes, expect those that can gut out the game to do so, but head coach Kyle Whittingham isn’t likely to push it with Moss’ shoulder. Before you pull the trigger on the ‘over’ based on last week’s lack of defense from both of these teams, be aware that there could be severe weather to deal with on Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

UCLA at Arizona (-6/72), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: After last week's thrilling comeback victory, the mood around Chip Kelly's football team is far different than it has been after a disappointing 0-3 start. Chip Kelly and his QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, now get a chance to try and get to 3-3 by their Oct. 12 bye week since they'll be favored at home against Oregon State next week. Demetric Felton is looking to emerge as one of the Pac-12's top home run hitters after last week's breakthrough, while Khalil Tate is probably the guy most capable of taking off for 80 yards every time he touches the ball. There have been at least 61 points scored in each of the past four meetings between these schools.

by: Monte Andrews

KING STAYING PUT?

It looks like D'Eriq King is staying in Houston, after all. The talented collegiate quarterback was reportedly considering a transfer – a fact his father shared shortly after it was announced that King would be taking a redshirt for the remainder of the 2019 season.

It appears that King's intention is to return to the Cougars for the 2020 season rather than go somewhere else. It was a surprising decision from King, who had thrown for 663 yards with six touchdowns while running for 312 yards and six scores

The 1-3 Cougars visit North Texas on Saturday night and the line for this one has skyrocketed from Houston -2.5 to North Texas -6. With both King and No. 1 receiver Keith Corbin opting to redshirt, we suggest taking the home team ATS as Houston gets its offense sorted.

SAFETY BANS

The Wisconsin Badgers will be without two of their starting safeties for the first half of Saturday's encounter with the visiting Northwestern Wildcats.

Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson are both out for the opening two quarters after picking up targeting penalties in last week's victory over Michigan. Their absences – albeit temporary – are big ones for the Badgers. Burrell has a pair of interceptions and a fumble recovery so far this season, while Pearson has forced two fumbles.

The Wildcats are very much a run-first team, but with Wisconsin's secondary a mess for the opening two quarters, we like the visitors to keep things relatively competitive. Take Northwestern +14 to cover the first-half spread.

ESKRIDGE OUT

One of the top two-way players in the nation will miss the remainder of the 2019 season. Western Michigan DB/WR D'Wayne Eskridge suffered a broken collarbone while hauling in a 43-yard pass in last week's loss to Syracuse.

Eskridge was proficient on both sides of the football for the Broncos, catching three passes for 73 yards while adding 14 tackles and four passes defensed. He's eligible for a redshirt should he desire to return to Western Michigan for a fifth season.

Eskridge's absence puts more strain on a Broncos’ pass defense that ranks 75th in yards per game against while allowing opposing QBs to complete 65 percent of their passes. We like rival Central Michigan to cover on the road this weekend.

INJURIES MOUNTING FOR CSU

Add another name to the list of marquee skill players who cold be out of action for Colorado State as the Rams tangle with Utah State on Saturday.

Running back Marvin Kinsey Jr. is considered doubtful after suffering a separated shoulder in last week's setback to Toledo. Kinsey is coming off a career-best 246 rushing yards vs. the Rockets. He joins QB Collin Hill (torn ACL) on the sidelines, while wide receiver Warren Jackson might also miss the game against the Aggies with a possible concussion.

The Rams are already 24-point underdogs at Utah State, and these injuries make the host Aggies a terrific cover play. We also favor Colorado State finishing below its team total, which sits at around 23.5 points.

Saturday’s top 13 games
Road team won last five Wake Forest-Boston College games; Deacons won three of last four visits to Beantown. Underdogs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 series games. Wake is off to a 4-0 start, running ball for 423 yards in last two I-A wins; under Clawson, they’re 0-3-1 ATS as a road favorite. BC is +7 in turnovers vs I-A foes; they’ve gained 431+ TY in all three of their I-A tilts, but QB Brown has completed only 53.5% of his passes this year. Eagles are 4-1-1 in last six game as a home underdog.

Georgia Tech gave up 320 RY in a 27-24 loss to a I-AA team that runs the option, after Clemson ran ball for 411 yards against them; Yellow Jackets are 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a road dog, 0-1 this year. Tech is making drastic change away from option attack- it’ll take time. Temple lost as a 14-point road favorite LW in Buffalo, after upsetting Maryland the week before; Owls are 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite. AAC teams are 17-10 ATS in last 27 games vs ACC teams.

NC State beat Florida State 47-28/27-21 the last two years; underdogs are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 series games. Wolfpack is 6-2-1 ATS in their nine visits to Tallahassee. NCS lost its only road game 44-27 at West Virginia- they beat up on two stiffs; under Doeren, they’re 6-9-1 ATS as a road underdog. FSU split its first four games, giving up 33.8 ppg; they allowed 44-24 points in their wins, gave up 410+ TY in all four games. Seminoles are 13-17 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.

Underdogs covered three of last four Iowa State-Baylor games; Cyclones won last two meetings, 28-14/23-13. ISU lost four of last five visits to Waco; under Campbell, they’re 3-1 ATS as a road favorite- this is their first road game this year. Cyclones outgained rival Iowa by 105 yards but lost 18-17 at home- they crushed UL-Monroe LY. Baylor beat up on three stiffs to start season; QB Brewer is completing 71% of his passes. Under Rhule, they’re 3-2 as a home underdog.

How will Washington State react after giving up 50 points in 2nd half of LW’s 67-63 loss to UCLA (they led 49-17)? Coogs won only road game 31-24 at Houston; Wazzu is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog, but they gave up 507 PY to UCLA LW. Utah is coming off a loss at USC LW; over last three years, they’re 9-5 ATS coming off a loss. Utes covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite. Utah outgained Trojans by 76 yards LW but gave up 368 PY.

Stanford lost its last three games, all by 15 points; they gave up 90 points in losing both road games, at USC, UCF, were held to 234 TY in LW’s home loss to Oregon. Cardinal is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog; they won their last nine games vs Oregon State (6-2-1 ATS), covering three of last four visits to Corvallis. OSU gave up 52-31 points in losing both its I-A games, including a 31-28 loss at Hawai’i- they beat a I-AA team 45-7 LW. Under Smith, Beavers are 0-6 ATS as a home underdog.

Kentucky won its last five games with South Carolina; they were underdog in three of the games. Wildcats are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten series games, 4-1 in last five visits to Columbia. Kentucky lost its first two SEC games, giving up 438-421 TY; they’re 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road dog. Gamecocks are 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, losing last two games by 20-24 points, giving up 35 ppg; they’re 7-14 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite. Carolina covered four of last five games, Kentucky covered five of last seven games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Underdogs covered nine of last 12 Kansas State-Oklahoma State games; Wildcats covered last five visits to Stillwater. K-State was outgained 352-269 in its 31-24 win at Miss State LW; they are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog. Coach Klieman has won 26 games in a row, dating back to his I-AA days. Oklahoma State was outgained 498-494 in its 36-30 loss to Texas LW; Cowboys scored 122 points in their three I-A games- since 2012, they’re 21-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Mississippi State-Auburn split their last eight games; underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games. Bulldogs lost four of last five visits to Auburn (2-3 ATS). MSU ran ball for 200+ yards in all four games of its 3-1 start; they’re 0-4 in last four tries as a road underdog, 4-2 in last six games as a double digit underdog. Auburn is already 4-0, with wins over Auburn, Texas A&M; Tigers were outgained by 92 yards, held to 106 PY by A&M LW. Auburn are 2-0 as a HF this year, after being 6-16-1 from 2015-18.

Notre Dame (-12.5) ran for 253 yards, won 34-27 at Virginia three years ago; total yardage was 460-416, ND in teams’ only meeting in last 20 years. Virginia is 4-0 this year with a win at Pitt, home win over Florida State; Cavaliers gained only 244 TY in a 28-17 win over ODU last week- they ran for only 69 yards. Virginia is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog. Notre Dame lost 23-17 at Georgia LW, running ball for only 46 yards; last three years, Irish are 6-4 ATS coming off a loss- they’re 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Cincinnati sandwiched a 42-0 loss at Ohio State with home wins over UCLA, Miami OH; since 2015, Cincy is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. Under Fickell, Bearcats are 8-6 ATS coming off a win; they have a big AAC game with UCF on deck next Friday. Marshall had last week off after a 33-31 win over Ohio U, when the Bobcats ran ball for 223 yards. since 2011, Thundering Herd is 6-5 ATS as a home underdog- they were outgained 437-172 in a 14-7 loss at Boise State in their other I-A game. Marshall (+4) won 38-21 at Cincinnati in teams’ last meeting two years ago.

Looks like 3rd-string QB Fink (20-31/351 yards, 3 TD, one INT) gets the start for USC, against a Washington squad that Trojans beat in three of last four meetings, winning 26-13 (+7.5) in last visit here in 2016. Underdogs covered eight of last ten series games. USC upset Utah at home LW, after losing in OT at BYU the week before; since 2012, Trojans are 3-12 ATS when getting points on the road. USC allowed 430 TY in three of its four games this season. Huskies crushed couple of stiffs after getting upset by Cal at home; Washington covered twice in last eight games as a home favorite.

0-3 UCLA was down 49-17 late in 3rd quarter at Wazzu LW, before rallying for incredible 67-63 win; Bruins scored 50 points in the 2nd half!!! UCLA allowed 111 points in its last two games; they threw ball for 507 yards LW. Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-3 ATS as a road underdog- they won six of last seven games with Arizona, beating Wildcats 31-30 (-10) LY. Average total in last four series games is 74. Arizona had LW off after beating Texas Tech 28-14 here; Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.

13 other games
Underdogs covered four of last five Northwestern-Wisconsin games; Wildcats are 3-4-1 ATS in last eight visits to Madison, 14-4 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won its first three games this year by a combined 145-14; they were up 35-0 on Michigan LW, outgaining Wolverines 487-299. Badgers are 12-15-1 in last 28 games as a home favorite. 2-0 this year.

South Florida won its last three games with SMU by 1-24-8 points; teams last met in 2016. SMU is off to a 4-0 start behind Texas transfer QB Buechele, scoring 37+ points in all four games- they covered twice in last seven games as a road favorite. South Florida was outscored 63-10 in losing its two I-A game; they killed a I-AA stiff LW. Bulls covered once in their last five games as a home underdog.

Favorites covered nine of last 11 Buffalo-Miami games; Bulls are 3-5 ATS in their last eight visits to Miami. Buffalo covered four of last five games as a road favorite- they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing last one 35-17 (-6) at Liberty. Red Hawks are 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, with all three losses by 22+ points; they lost 76-5 at Ohio State LW, are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

Minnesota won five of last six games with Purdue; Gophers ran for 200+ yards in all six games. Favorites covered last five series games played here. Minnesota is 3-0 this year, allowing 88 points, with no wins by more than 7 points. Purdue allowed 92 points in its 1-2 start; under Brohm, Boilers are 8-7 ATS at home. Purdue threw for 932 yards in its first two games, but only 181 in their 34-13 home loss to TCU in their last game.

Road team won both Louisiana-Georgia Southern games; Ragin’ Cajuns (+7.5) won 33-26 here two years ago. ULL won its first road game 45-25 (+3) at Ohio LW; Cajuns are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. GSU lost its last game 35-32 at Minnesota (outgained 382-198), week after they struggled to beat I-AA Maine 26-18; Eagles are 5-4-1 as home underdogs.

Middle Tennessee lost its two I-A games 40-21/41-18, to Michigan/Duke; they beat a I-AA stiff 45-26 in between, but allowed 200+ rushing yards in all three games. MTSU is 9-13-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog. Iowa plays Michigan/Penn State the next two weeks, is likely looking past this game; Hawkeyes covered six of their last eight games as a home favorite- they are 7-2 in last nine games as a double digit favorite.

Wyoming is 8-3 in last 11 games vs UNLV, losing 69-66 (-7.5) on the Strip LY. UNLV allowed 490 RY, 73 points in losing its two I-A games; they lost first road game 30-14 at Northwestern. Rebels completed only 27-52 passes in those games. Under Sanchez, UNLV is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog. Last 3+ years, Wyoming is 6-2 ATS when laying points at home; Cowboys are 2-1 vs I-A teams, despite allowing 354+ PY in all three games.

Michigan State won nine of last ten games with Indiana, which hasn’t even covered a spread in its last seven visits to East Lansing. Hoosiers are 3-1 with a 51-10 loss at Ohio State; they’re 13-20 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. MSU covered once in its last six games as a home favorite; they got upset 10-7 by Arizona St in their last home tilt. Spartans are 32-1 this year, with all three wins by 21+ points.

Northern Illinois was outscored 79-25 in losing its two road games; Huskies are 18-8 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog, but they’ve got new coach this year. Vanderbilt lost its first three games, allowing 138 points; they allowed 927 PY in last two games. Under Mason, Commodores are 8-9 as a home favorite, 5-7 outside the SEC. Last three years, MAC squads are 9-7 ATS when playing an SEC opponent.

Kansas (+13.5) upset TCU 27-26 at home LY, there first win over the Horned Frogs in 21 years; Jayhawks covered two of last three visits to Fort Worth. Kansas is 1-2 vs I-A, with both losses by five points; they won SU as 19-point underdogs at Boston College. TCU (-7.5) got upset here by local rival SMU LW; Horned Frogs are 3-13-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. TCU has completed only 24-60 passes in its two I-A games.

UAB won its two games with Western Kentucky by total of 7 points; teams last met in 2014. Blazers won their first two I-A games this year by 11-32 points, scoring 31-35 points; under Clark, UAB is 4-4 ATS when laying points on the road. Over last decade, WKU is 13-6 as a home underdog, but they’re 10-18 SU in last 28 games; Hilltoppers were outrushed 361-141 in splitting their two I-A games.

Ohio State won its first four games, last three by combined score of 169-15; over last 10+ years, Buckeyes 16-19-1 ATS as a road favorite- they’re 13-11 ATS in last 24 games when laying double digits. OSU won last four games vs Nebraska, but struggled in 36-31 (-18) home win LY. Huskers outgained Illinois 690-299 LW but won only 42-38; since 2010, Nebraska is 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.

Houston QB King is red-shirting after Cougars’ 1-3 start; unsure how much chaos that throws the Cougars’ program into. Houston allowed 118 points in losing all three of its I-A games; they are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog. Since 2011, North Texas is 17-11 ATS when laying points at home. Last four years, AAC teams are 12-8 ATS when playing a C-USA foe. These teams last met in 2012.