Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 10/2/19
Saturday’s top 13 games
Last ten years, Texas is 0-10 ATS the week before they play Oklahoma. Underdogs are 5-2 SU in last seven Texas-West Virginia games; Longhorns won two of last three visits here (favorites 2-1 ATS). Road team won five of last seven series games. Under Herman, Texas is 4-4 ATS as a road favorite (1-0 in ’19), 3-6 as a double digit fave (2-0 in ’19). West Virginia is 3-1 this year, but gave up 89 points in their three I-A games; over last decade, WVU is 5-6-1 ATS as a home underdog. Home teams covered five of first six Big X conference games this year.
Duke scored 86 points in winning its last two games, both on road, when they ran ball for 460 yards; Blue Devils lost four of their last five games with Pitt, which won its last three visits to Durham, by 3-18-7 points. Underdogs covered five of last six series games. Last 4+ years, Duke is 6-12 ATS as a home favorite. Pitt upset UCF two weeks ago, then was life/death to nip I-AA Delaware 17-14 LW; under Narduzzi, Panthers are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog. Three of four Pitt games stayed under the total.
Underdogs covered five of last six Baylor-Kansas State games, including last four meetings here; Bears won two of last three trips to the Little Apple. Baylor is 4-0 after upsetting Iowa St at home LW; Bears are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog- they won their only road game this year, 21-13 (-27) at Rice. K-State allowed 574 YR in splitting its last two games; they completed only 21-41 passes in those games. Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-0 this year; they ran for 225+ yards in last four series games.
Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State 41-17 LY, ending a 9-game series skid; Cowboys won their last five visits to Lubbock, scoring 52.6 ppg. Underdogs covered four of last five series games. OSU is 4-1 with road wins at Oregon St/Tulsa; they ran ball for 373 yards in LW’s win over K-State. Last three years, Cowboys are 7-5 ATS as a road favorite. Tech was held to 14-16 points in losing last two games, when they allowed 515 RY; Red Raiders gave up 642 yards to Oklahoma LW, 441 in the air. Tech is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
Arizona won its last three games, holding Texas Tech/UCLA to 14-17 points the last two games; they’ve given up 415 TY in all four of their games this season, including 442 yards (373 PY) to a I-AA opponent. Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a road dog. Wildcats won six of last seven games with Colorado, beating them 42-34/45-42 the last two years; favorites covered four of last six series games. Colorado is 3-1 despite giving up 444+ yards in all four games; they’re 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
Underdogs covered nine of last 11 San Diego State-Colorado State games; Aztecs won their last five visits to Fort Collins (dogs 4-1 ATS)- teams last met in 2016. San Diego State is 3-1 wth road wins at UCLA/New Mexico State; they’ve held all four opponents under 85 RY. Aztecs are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite- under is 3-0 in their games this year. Rams are 0-4 this year vs I-A teams, giving up 45.5 ppg, 283.5 rushing yards/game. CSU covered six of last nine tries as a home underdog.
Iowa is 4-0, winning its only road game 18-17 at rival Iowa State; they’ve allowed total of only 34 points in four games, but three of them were against stiffs. Hawkeyes are 6-5-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog- they won five of their last six games with Michigan, but teams have met only once since 2013. Faves are 4-0-1 ATS in Iowa’s last five trips to Ann Arbor. Michigan got smoked at Wisconsin, barely beat Army, but whacked Rutgers LW; under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 15-14 ATS as home favorites.
Underdogs covered five of last seven Northwestern-Nebraska games, with Wildcats winning last two; they’ve split eight meetings since Cornhuskers joined the Big 14. Wildcats covered their last four visits to Lincoln. Northwestern is 1-3 this year, held under 300 TY and to 7-10-15 points in the losses; Wildcats covered 15 of last 19 games as a road underdog (1-1 this year). Nebraska got killed at home LW by Ohio State; they’re 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Huskers allowed 589 rushing yards in their last two games (they nipped Illinois 42-38).
Home side won last six Air Force-Navy games; Falcons lost six of last seven trips to Annapolis, losing last three, by 3-22-18 points. Underdogs are 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 series games. AFA won three of its first four games, including a win at Colorado; over last 4+ years, Falcons are 2-8 ATS as a road favorite- they ran ball for 382 yard in win over San Jose St LW. Navy slit its first couple I-A games, despite running ball for 606 yards; Middies are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games as a home underdog. Mountain West teams are 11-5 ATS in non-conference road games.
TCU is 5-2 Iowa State in Big X play, with underdogs covering last three meetings. Horned Frogs won two of last three visits to Ames. Horned Frogs ran ball for 901 yards in winning two of three I-A games, with only loss 41-38 to local rival SMU; they also threw for 306 yards vs Kansas LW. Over last decade, TCU is 13-5 ATS as a road underdog. Cyclones split their first four games, with losses by total of three points; under Campbell, State is 5-5 ATS as a home favorite. ISU was held under 100 rushing yards in both its losses- they threw for 1,113 yards in last three games.
Arkansas State split its four I-A games, scoring 30+ points in three of the four; they’ve als0 given up 500+ TY in their last three games, one of which was against a I-AA team. ASU won its five games vs Georgia State, winning 31-16/52-10 in two visits here- road teams covered four of the five games. Since 2015, ASU is 10-5 ATS when giving points on the road. Georgia State won at Tennessee, then gave up 94 points in losses at Western Michigan, Texas State. Panthers are 5-10-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog.
Auburn-Florida haven’t met since 2011; Tigers won last three series games- underdogs covered four of last five series games. Auburn is 5-0 this season, with a 28-20 win at Texas A&M, when Tigers were outgained by 92 yards, and a neutral field win over Oregon. Auburn is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Florida is 5-0 but they’ve played two I-AA teams, which isn’t a good idea; their best wins are over Miami on a neutral field and at Kentucky. Florida is playing a backup QB; over last decade, Gators are 3-5 ATS when getting points at home.
Michigan State scored 71 points in winning its first two Big 14 games; their only loss was 10-7 at home to Arizona State, when Spartans outgained ASU 404-216 but lost. MSU covered nine of its last dozen games as a road underdog; they lost last two meetings with Ohio State 48-3/26-6, after they had covered previous six series games. Spartans are 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Ohio State. Buckeyes crushed their first five opponents; their closest win was 45-21 over FAU. OSU is 12-11 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.
College football Week 6 odds: Early bettors back Auburn in SEC battle vs Florida
Patrick Everson
College football heads into October with Week 6, which features a big battle of unbeatens in the Southeastern Conference. We check in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA.
No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 8 Florida Gators (+2)
Auburn has been outstanding not only on the field, but against the oddsmakers through the first five weeks, at a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. In Week 5, the Tigers drubbed Mississippi State 56-23 as 7.5-point home favorites.
Florida hasn’t been as good for bettors, but still enters this Saturday afternoon clash at 5-0 SU (2-3 ATS). The Gators got an easy tuneup in Week 5, rolling over FCS foe Towson State 38-0 while failing to cash as 40-point home faves.
“A pivotal October game, both in terms of the SEC and the College Football Playoff picture, as both teams are staring at minefields for upcoming schedules,” Chaprales said. “Early action landed on Auburn, pushing an opener of -2 up to -3. At that point, there was some buyback on Florida +3. The number will probably bounce around the key number throughout the week.”
No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (-5.5)
Michigan finally found a way to cover the number, but needed to face a Big Ten doormat to do so. The Wolverines (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) rebounded from a drubbing at Wisconsin by bashing Rutgers 52-0 as 27.5 point Week 5 home favorites.
Iowa heads into this key Saturday contest with a perfect 4-0 SU mark (2-2 ATS). The Hawkeyes blasted Middle Tennessee State 48-3 laying 23.5 points at home in Week 5.
Michigan opened -5.5 and ticked down to -4.5, then back to -5. However, by Monday afternoon, the number dipped to -4. PointsBet USA’s primary operation is as a mobile operator in New Jersey, but it also has a new brick-and-mortar sportsbook at Catfish Bend Casino in Iowa, which will certainly impact action on this game.
“Michigan got the complete effort it needed on Saturday, tuning up with Rutgers,” Chaprales said. “But the Wolverines will face a tough test in an Iowa squad that’s looked good so far, albeit against uninspiring competition. A small adjustment off the opener, and I’m sure more Iowa money will start to flow in at our Catfish Bend property throughout the week – and specifically on game day.”
No. 19 Central Florida Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats (+3)
Central Florida’s 27-game regular-season win streak – and 19-7-1 ATS tear – is in the rearview mirror after a stunning Week 4 outright loss at Pittsburgh. The Knights (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) bounced back in Week 5 by crushing Connecticut 56-21, but fell short as 42-point home favorites.
Cincinnati took a Week 2 beating at Ohio State, losing 42-0, but followed by winning and cashing its next two games. The Bearcats (3-1 SU and ATS) went to Marshall as 4-point faves Saturday and exited with a 52-14 blowout victory.
The Knights won and cashed the last three in this American Athletic Conference rivalry, by margins of 21 points or more each time out.
“Central Florida has dominated this series the past few years, and early action is reflective of that, with a rapid move through 3,” Chaprales said of a line that’s already up to Knights -4.5. “It’s a stand-alone game under the lights on Friday, and we’re going to need Cincinnati. It’s just a matter of how big of a decision it’s going to be.”
No. 16 California Golden Bears at No. 13 Oregon Ducks (+18)
Oregon was dealt a painful Week 1 neutral-site loss to Auburn, in a game the Ducks led for all but the final nine seconds. But Oregon (3-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed three straight since then, including a 21-6 victory at Stanford giving 13 points in Week 4. Oregon had a bye in Week 5.
California was the surprise team of the first month, going unbeaten while posting road victories over Washington and Mississippi. However, the Golden Bears (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) crashed back to earth in Week 5, losing at home to Arizona State 24-17 as 4-point favorites. Cal lost quarterback Chase Garbers to a shoulder injury late in the first half.
“This game is currently off the board due to Garbers’ status,” Chaprales said early Monday morning. “Without Garbers, an already shaky Cal offense is in big trouble.”
By Monday afternoon, PointsBet USA went up with Oregon a hefty 18-point favorite on the assumption that Garbers will not play for Cal.
Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Oct. 3
Matchup Skinny
Edge
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at SOUTH ALABAMA... GS on 13-7 spread run since late 2017 and has won and covered big the past five years vs. USA. Jags 1-3 last four as Mobile dog.
Georgia Southern, based on series and team trends.
TEMPLE at EAST CAROLINA...ECU got rare cover vs. OSU but still struggling, 2-3 vs. line TY, 12-28-1 vs. points since 2016. Temple has won and covered last five meetings since 2014, won big last three all by 24 or more.
Temple, based on series trends.
Friday, Oct. 4
Matchup Skinny
Edge
UCF at CINCINNATI...UCF 8-2 as visiting chalk since 2016. Fickell 2-3 as dog since LY. UCF has won and covered last three (well, counting the 2017 game, when UCF was blowing out Bearcats but game ended prematurely because of weather).
UCF, based on team and series trends.
NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE... SJS on 10-6 spread uptick. Spartans 13-5-1 as chalk since 2014. Lobos no covers last seven since late 2018, 8-20-1 last 29 on board.
San Jose State, based on team trends.
Saturday, Oct. 5
Matchup Skinny
Edge
SOUTH FLORIDA at UCONN...UConn’s one of two covers LY was vs. USF, and has actually covered last three in series, though just 4-12 vs. spread for Edsall since LY. Charlie Strong 2-6 as chalk since LY and that includes a W vs. South Carolina State on Sept. 14.
UConn, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at LOUISVILLE...Satterfield on 16-4-1 spread run since late 2017 at App & ‘Ville. BC won and covered last two vs. Petrino Cards but only 3-4-1 last eight on board.
Louisville, based on Satterfield marks.
NORTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA TECH...Tech 0-4 vs. line for Collins, 0-7 since late 2018 vs. spread. Paul Johnson did beat Heels last two seasons, however.
Slight to UNC, based on recent trends.
TEXAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Horns just 1-3 as visiting chalk LY. Mounties 9-5-2 vs. spread since LY. Note road team has covered last three in series.
Slight to Texas, based on series trends.
PURDUE at PENN STATE...Brohm 8-4 as dog with Boilers (0-1 TY). James Franklin 15-6-1 at home since mid 2016, 10-3-1 vs. points last 14 as Big Ten host.
Penn State, based on team trends.
BALL STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Cards were 1-7 vs. line on MAC road past two years, 4-9 vs. spread last 13 as visitor (1-0 TY; no count neutral vs. IU). NIU has covered last 7 and won SU last 10 in series.
Northern Illinois, based on series trends.
TULANE at ARMY...Wave has won and covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018. Note road team has covered all four Army games this season, Black Knights just 6-11 vs. line last 17 at Michie since mid 2016.
Tulane, based on team trends.
PITT at DUKE...Pitt has won and covered last four meetings. Narduzzi 7-3 last ten as visiting dog. Duke just 2-6 as home chalk since last season (1-0 2019).
Pitt, based on series trends.
BAYLOR at KANSAS STATE...KSU has covered 4 of last 5 reg season meetings. Rhule was 5-2 as dog last season. Klieman 3-1 SU and vs. line in 2019, Cats on 9-3 spread run since early 2018.
Slight to Kansas State, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at RUTGERS...Road team has covered last three in series. Terps no covers last five as visitor, 1-7 last 8 vs. spread as Big Ten visitor. Ash recently had a 6-game cover streak but has dropped last 3 vs. line. Rutgers was 7-4 as home dog past two seasons.
Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Ok State has covered 5 straight and 8 of 9 since late 2018. TT 2-5 vs. number last 7 as Big 12 host. Though Red Raiders have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series.
Slight to Oklahoma State, based on recent trends.
KENT STATE at WISCONSIN...Badgers have won and covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018, total score 204-32! Wiscy was just 1-5 as Madison chalk LY but was 9–4 overall as chalk as recently as 2017, and 10-5-1 laying DD 2016-17. Golden Flashes 5-4 vs. spread last 9 visiting Power 5, though just 8-10 as DD dog since 2017 (1-1 TY).
Wisconsin, based on recent trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...EMU road mark impresses (2-1 TY after 17-4 previous 3 years away from Ypsilanti), but almost all of that as dog; as road chalk, Eagles 3-2 since 2016. McElwain has covered 4 of first 5 this season, and Chips have covered last 2 meetings.
Slight to Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLA...Fuente presiding over what seems a meltdown at VPI, which is 0-4 vs. line TY after Duke debacle, now 7-15 last 22 overall vs. spread. Miami has won and covered 4 of last 5 and 5 of last 7 in series.
Miami, Fl., based on series and team trends.
TROY at MISSOURI...Troy was a good dog in recent years (10-4 in role 2015-18), and has covered last five against Power 5 opposition including SU wins at LSU and Nebraska past 2 years. Barry Odom however has won and covered big the last three TY and 10-2 last 12 as home chalk.
Slight to Missouri, based on recent trends.
LIBERTY at NEW MEXICO STATE...In this home-and-home, NMSU managed to cover both meetings LY, though home side was 2-0 SU. Ags 2-8 vs. spread last 9 at Las Cruces, however.
Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at COLORADO...Home field has meant something to Sumlin’s Cats, who are 7-2 vs. spread at Tucson but 1-5 vs. number away. Note “overs” last four in wild rivalry that has seen Cats win SU 6 of last 7. Buffs just 1-4 vs. line last 5 at Boulder (1-1 for Tucker).
"Over" and slight to Arizona, based on series trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at COLORADO STATE...Rams have covered last 3 as home dog for Bobo. Rocky 2-2 vs. line TY after 3-10 mark LY, but is 6-2 vs. spread last 8 on MW road.
Slight to Colorado State, based on recent trends.
OREGON STATE at UCLA...Bruins 5-13 last 18 as Rose Bowl chalk (0-3 in role for Chip). Beavs 4-3 as road dog for Jonathan Smith since LY.
Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.
CAL at OREGON...Cal has covered last 7 as road dog for Justin Wilcox. Bears also 13-5 as dog for Wilcox. Ducks just 4-5 vs. spread at home for Cristobal, but have won and covered last 2 years vs. Bears.
Cal, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON at STANFORD...Tree no covers since NU opener, Shaw now 1-5 vs. spread last five since late 2018. Stanford was 4-0 as home dog since 2012 entering this season before loss to Ducks. Cardinal no covers last three as dog TY after 10-5 mark previous 15 in role. Huskies have covered last four away from Seattle.
Washington, based on recent trends.
TULSA at SMU...Sonny Dykes rockin’ and rollin’ at 5-0 SU and vs. line, though he hasn’t covered last 2 vs. Tulsa. Hurricane covered first 2 away TY but only 2-4 vs. spread away LY.
Slight to SMU, based on recent trends.
IOWA at MICHIGAN...Ferentz on 14-4-1 spread surge since late 2017, he’s also 7-1-1 vs. points last 9 away from Iowa City. Harbaugh on 1-7 spread skid since late 2018.
Iowa, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA...Lovie 4-9 vs. spread last 13 as visitor (0-1 TY), and 6-15 last 21 vs. points in Big Ten play. Though he has covered last 2 vs. Gophers and won big LY. Gophers 0-2 vs. line at home TY but were 4-2 vs. spread as host in 2018.
Minnesota, based on Lovie trends.
RICE at UAB...Rice 6-2 last 8 as visiting dog, 7-2 last 9 getting 20+. UAB 11-2-1 vs. line since 2017 at legion Field.
Slight to Rice, based on team trends.
NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA...Pat Fitz had been a great dog in recent years (14-4-1 in role from 2016-18) but 1-2 as dog TY. Road team however has covered last six in this series. Frost just 4-6 vs. spread at Lincoln since LY.
Northwestern, based on team and series trends.
GEORGIA at TENNESSEE...Ga 6-3 vs. spread last nine as SEC visitor, Vols just 4-13 vs. points last 17 at Knoxville but have covered 5 of last 7 in series.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at NAVY...Calhoun 18-9-1 as dog since 2014. Navy 6-1 last 7 vs. line and has covered last 3 at Annapolis. Force has covered last three and four of last five meetings.
Air Force, based on team and recent series trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...WMU 2-8 vs. points last ten away from Waldo Stadium. Also 1-7 last 8 as a dog. UT 8-1 last nine as Glass Bowl chalk. Rockets have won and covered big the past two seasons.
Toledo, based on team trends.
OKLAHOMA at KANSAS...OU 4-1-1 vs. spread last 6 away from Norman, though was only 3-6 laying DD LY (2-1 in role TY). Jayhawks covered big price LY but just 1-4 vs. spread last five in series.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on series trends.
OHIO at BUFFALO...Solich 11-6 vs. spread last 17 on MAC team, 13-5 as dog since 2015, and covered last six as MAC dog. Bulls 10-3-1 vs. spread as host since 2017, and host has won and covered last six meetings.
Ohio, based on team trends.
TCU at IOWA STATE...Frogs 2-6 last 8 vs. Big 12 teams away from Fort Worth. Patterson only 6-6 in once solid dog role past three years. Matt Campbell has covered all three vs. TCU since 2016.
Iowa State, based on team and recent series trends.
VANDERBILT at OLE MISS...Derek Mason only 5-12 last 17 as dog. He has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Ole Miss, however, and did cover last three on SEC road in 2018. Rebs on 5-11-1 spread since last season.
Slight to Vanderbilt, based on recent trends.
MARSHALL at MTSU...Herd 10-5 vs. spread last 15 away from Huntington (1-0 TY), though just 3-6 last nine as visiting chalk. MTSU no covers last three at home, only 1-3-1 vs. points last five in series.
Marshall, based on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at NOTRE DAME...Falcs 1-3 vs. spread in 2019 after 11-25 mark past three seasons. BG 0-3 as DD dog in 2019, 4-13 last 17 in role since 2017.
Notre Dame, based on BG negatives.
ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE...Red Wolves 11-5 vs. line last 16 on Belt road (though just 5-5 last ten). GSU just 3-8-1 vs. spread at home since moving into Turner Field/GSU Stadium since 2017.
Arkansas State, based on team trends.
WKU at OLD DOMINION...ODU covered at the two Va schools in Sept and 4-2 last six vs. line since late 2018. If Monarchs chalk note 2-7 mark in role since 2017 (0-1 TY), though they have covered last two in series. If Tops a dog note 5-1-1 mark last seven as visiting dog.
Slight to Western Kentucky, based on team trends.
AUBURN at FLORIDA...Gus 5-0 vs. line TY and has covered in last six since late 2018. Gus also whipped Mullen at MSU the last two times they met in 2016-17.
Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.
UMASS at FIU...Mass 1-6 last 7 as road dog. FIU only 0-4 vs. line out of chute in 2019 after 10-3 mark vs. spread LY.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.
MEMPHIS at ULM...Tigers 2-1-1 vs. line TY, and 5-2 last 7 as visiting chalk. Warhawks 2-9-1 vs. line last 12 at home.
Memphis, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE...Dantonio 21-9 as dog since 2011 though just 4-4 in role past two years. Spartans 7-2 vs. spread last nine away, though no covers last two vs. Bucks. Ryan Day 6-2 vs. spread with Buckeyes since interim stint LY.
Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at LSU...Orgeron 3-1 vs. line TY, and 2-1 laying DD TY after 1-4 mark in role in 2018. Tigers 1-6 vs. spread last seven hosting non-SEC. Utags 12-4-1 vs. spread since LY (3-1 TY).
Slight to Utah State, based on team trends.
UTSA at UTEP...Roadrunners no covers last three TY, now on 6-18 spread skid since early 2017. Miners 1-9 vs. spread last ten at Sun Bowl. Road team has covered all six meetings since 2013!
Slight to UTSA, based on series trends.
BOISE STATE at UNLV...Sanchez just 6-11 vs. spread last 17 at Sam Boyd Stadium, Broncos 36-18 as visiting chalk since 2009.
Boise State, based on team trends.
by: Monte Andrews
A NEW AFFLICTION
A new injury could keep Stanford Cardinal quarterback K.J. Costello off the field for Saturday's game against the Washington Huskies. Costello is dealing with a hand injury that kept him out of last Saturday's game against Oregon State, after he had previously missed time while recovering from a concussion.
Costello has been labeled between questionable and doubtful by Stanford head coach David Shaw, making it likely that Davis Mills will get the start in Costello's place. Mills has completed 62.5 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception so far this season.
The downgrade in quarterback could make a difficult task even tougher for a Cardinal team giving away more than two TDs to the visiting Huskies. Stanford is averaging just 11.5 points in two home games, so we like the Under 17.5 on the team point total.
FROM HERO TO HURT
The hero of Pitt's shocking win over Central Florida might be on the shelf for yet another week. Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett is still recovering from an undisclosed injury that held him out of last week's victory over Delaware, and head coach Pat Narduzzi could only say "I don't know" when asked earlier this week if Pickett would return.
Pickett, who caught the game-winning touchdown pass for Pitt in a 37-34 triumph over ranked UCF, has thrown for 1,102 yards on the season with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Nick Patti will get the start if Pickett can't go.
Duke comes into this one as a 4-point favorite and while Patti fared well in Pickett's absence, the Blue Devils' 38th-ranked pass defense should make his day difficult. And with Pitt struggling to run the ball, we favor the hosts to cover.
JEFFERSON RETURNING
LSU receiver Justin Jefferson might be back on the field against visiting Utah State this weekend. Jefferson left the Tigers' Septemer 21 triumph over Vanderbilt with an ankle injury, but with LSU enjoying a week off following the victory, the junior wide receiver had plenty of time to rest and heal.
He returned to the team's unpadded practice to start the week and is trending toward returning against the Aggies. Jefferson is having a solid season for the Tigers so far, having hauled in 21 passes for 392 yards and five touchdowns to help lead LSU to a perfect 4-0 start.
With LSU getting another weapon back and enjoying home-field advantage against a USU team that ranks outside the Top 100 in passing yards allowed, the Tigers are a great bet to finish above their team total, which sits at around 50 points.
MOD’S SQUAD
Devon Modster has taken over the reins as starting quarterback for the California Golden Bears. Modster will get the start this weekend against the Oregon Ducks in place of Chase Garbers, who suffered an upper-body injury and is reportedly out for the "long term".
While Garbers was having an up-and-down season – throwing for eight touchdowns against just two interceptions but completing only 59.1 percent of his attempts – Modster was decidedly less stellar in relief, going 6-of-15 for a paltry 39 yards with an interception and a sack in the loss to Arizona State.
Oregon is one of the most dangerous first-half teams in the league (especially at home, where the Ducks average 24.7 first-half points per game) and Cal will struggle to keep up in hostile territory. We favor Oregon -10 on the first-half spread.
Total Moves - Week 6
October 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt
College Football Week 6 Total Moves
The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.
Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.
UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.
Before we break down the key moves, be sure to check out the top Over-Under schools for bettors.
Best OVER Schools
5-0 - Charlotte, SMU
4-0 - LSU
4-1 - Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami-Ohio, Mississippi State
Best UNDER Schools
4-0 - Tulsa, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Liberty, East Carolina
4-1 - Arizona State, Arkansas, California, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, South Alabama, UCLA, Utah
It's on to Week 6's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.
YTD: 6-4 ATS
Week 6 Total move to disagree with:
Maryland/Rutgers from 54 to 56
This play is one you can probably wait a bit on, because it's likely to keep climbing, and based on initial 'over' support, it's not coming back much below 56. That's still not a horrible number to go low on, as we've got two below average teams squaring off here. And while both coming off shutout losses in their last game is something that I can get behind for an 'over' look initially, trusting two bad teams to consistently put up points is a lot like trusting a teenager to come home by curfew. You want to believe they'll do it, every time it's an option, but you know it's only going to happen a couple of times out of every 10.
Maryland's offense, which was the toast of the land through the first two weeks, seem to have gotten 'blueprinted' by Temple's defense. That day the Owls really clamped down on the Terrapins attack, and Penn State went next level on it with two weeks of film study in their brains. Rutgers isn't going to have anywhere near that kind of success defensively, but they are more then capable of doing enough, especially if they continue to hurt themselves with turnovers (four in last two games).
Maryland's defense is going to want to have a bounce back effort after getting steamrolled by the Nittany Lions last week, and this is the type of opponent to to just that. Rutgers has a grand total of 16 points in their last 12 quarters of football, and as much as the situational bounce back off a shutout is there, sometimes you've just got to accept when a bad team is a bad team. Bad teams find different ways to not put up points all the time. The Terrapins may have been rolled by Penn State, but they had kept every other opponent to 20 or less before that, and Rutgers has only scored 20 or more points twice going all the way back to the 2018 season opener - 16 games.
As much as teams like this lure you in some weeks that they'll prove to make better decisions, execute better, and be home on time; chances are, some poor decision will lead into another one, and all of a sudden curfew's long gone. This matchup has had less than 56 points scored in it in each of the past three seasons, and Rutgers put up 13 or fewer in two of those games. Yes, a possible return from QB McLane Carter for Rutgers has sparked some of the love for this move, but he's still a little loose with the football and concussions are tough to have completely go away this soon.
Going against the grain is just another added benefit of a game that still probably needs too much to go right for both sides to clear this week's total.
Week 6 Total move to to agree with:
Oklahoma/Kansas from 66 to 67.5
There hasn't been anyone yet who can slow down this Oklahoma attack again this year, as Jalen Hurts transfer to the program as this offense not missing a beat again. However, with the Red River Rivalry with Texas on deck, this could be a spot where Oklahoma loses a bit of focus late once the win is already established.
A look-ahead like their big game vs Texas would typically have more effect on the point spread result for this game and that may very well be. Yet, I actually think because it's Kansas across the field and the likelihood of Oklahoma being up big in the 2nd half is great, the Sooners defense could easily shut things down defensively as they mentally shift to Texas. And given the Sooners history prior to the Red River Rivalry game, chances are we do see some points.
Oklahoma is on a 7-1 O/U run the last eight years in the game before playing Texas, and that includes a run of five straight 'overs' the past five seasons. Oklahoma sports a 5-3 ATS record during that span so it's not all defensive blowups either, and you just need to look to the Sooners putting up 66 in this spot a year ago to see that. But the average total points for Sooners games the week before Texas clocks in at 71.25 points/game during this eight-year run, and only twice in that span were there fewer than 68 points scored.
Kansas has fallen back down to earth after that huge win against Boston College, as Big 12 play has not treated them well so far with an 0-2 SU and ATS record. They were blasted by TCU last week in getting outgained by nearly 500 yards overall (466), and TCU's offense can look prehistoric compared to what Oklahoma brings. As long as the Sooners are focused for at least the first three quarters, them putting up their share of points here (45+) shouldn't be an issue.
It's the ease off the pedal from Oklahoma's defense that I'm expecting to take this 'over' play to the finish line though, as the Sooners have allowed 30+ points in four of the past five years before the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma opponents have averaged scoring 35.6 points/game themselves during that run, and Kansas likely only needs a bit more then half of that to likely secure an 'over'. That's quite doable if/when Oklahoma shuts things down on defense later in the game, as 70+ points is probably what we see from these two teams this week.
Other Notable Moves
Down
Baylor-Kansas State: 51 to 49
Troy-Missouri: 66.5 to 64.5
Ohio-Buffalo: 54 to 51
Up
Liberty-New Mexico State: 60 to 62
Vanderbilt-Mississippi: 60.5 to 62.5
Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia
Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in key FBS vs. FBS matchups:
Early Starts
Purdue at Penn State (-28/54), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Boilermakers QB Elijah Sindelar and star WR Rondale Moore were injured on the same play in last week’s loss to Minnesota and won’t play here. Sindelar broke his collarbone and Moore injured a knee, so they’ll join a number of Purdue’s top defensive players and projected starting backs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship in missing the team’s Big Ten road opener. It’s homecoming week in Happy Valley, so we’ll see how effectively the Nittany Lions handle business against depleted Purdue will the peril of looking ahead to games against Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State the rest of this month an obstacle in covering such a large spread. Since 2010, the Boilers are 0-10 in games where they’ve been an underdog of 23 points or more but they’ve covered in six of those games. Penn State QB Sean Clifford threw for 398 yards and set a new school record by throwing fo 287 in the first half. Despite losing Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders, PSU is averaging 50 points per game after putting up a 55.5 clip through four games last season.
Maryland (-13.5/56) at Rutgers, 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Scarlet Knights are under new leadership since Chris Ash caught a pink slip after Saturday’s 52-0 loss at Michigan. Offensive coordinator John McNulty was let go too, so Nunzio Campanile, a veteran of the New Jersey high school scene, will get his shot to impress in turning an interim gig into a full-time job by calling his own plays. Sophomore QB Art Sitkowski will redshirt and starter McLane Carter remains still sidelined by a concussion so redshirt freshman Johnny Langan, a Boston College transfer who won a state title under Campanile in ’17, will see his first action. The Terps are looking to rebound from last weekend’s 59-0 home loss against Penn State and play at banged-up Purdue next week, giving them an opportunity to rally after consecutive losses. QB Josh Jackson has developed a case of the yips after a fantastic start and probably can’t afford a third straight opening-drive interception. Tyrell Pegrome and redshirt freshman Tyler DeSue are waiting the turn, but first-year Maryland head coach Mike Locksley would certainly prefer if Jackson rebounds since he gives the team the best chance to win. Between a banged up offensive line and top WR D.J. Turner suspended, the Terps need him to avoid turnovers and serve as a stabilizing force on the road. RB Anthony McFarland was bottled up by Penn State but should get plenty of carries as he looks for his second 100-yard game of the season.
Oklahoma State (-10/63.5) at Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET, FS1: Alan Bowman remains sidelined with an unfortunate collarbone injury that knocked him out after an excellent start and it looks like Jett Duffey will be the starter until he returns. Rice transfer Jackson Tyner started against Oklahoma but was ineffective while Duffey has more experience in Big 12 play and will look to help prevent Tech’s first 0-2 start in league play since 2015. The Cowboys bounced back from their tough loss at Texas by stifling K-State and look to avoid consecutive losses against the Red Raiders for the first time since 2002, back when Mike Gundy was still Les Miles’ offensive coordinator. Gundy’s latest QB, athletic freshman Spencer Sanders, will be challenged to make throws on the road to beat teams, so this will be another opportunity to demonstrate growth after struggling with consistency since conference play opened.
Iowa at Michigan (-4/47.5), 12 p.m ET, FOX: After destroying Rutgers, the Wolverines are back in a position where Jim Harbaugh’s team can disappoint everyone. It’s Homecoming week in Ann Arbor and a capable Hawkeyes team comes through town for the first time since 2012. That happens to be the only time Michigan has won in the last six meetings between these schools dating back to ’09. Kirk Ferentz is 7-5 against Michigan and beat Harbaugh 14-13 as a 21-point underdog back in ’15 to spoil a 9-0 start. Shea Patterson is on campus to prevent that type of loss and looks to salvage the season after a dreadful opening month. He’s expected to be the healthiest he’s been all season after being limited in September, but the key to a strong outing is going to keep Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, the nation’s top pass rusher, from disrupting his rhythm early. The Hawkeyes haven’t been at full strength but get top tackle Alaric Jackson from a sprained knee and safety Kaevon Merriweather back to help in the secondary.
Oklahoma (-33.5/66.5) at Kansas, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Last year’s game shed the spotlight on what can happen when a team doesn’t respect their competition. Consider that a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick and a number of future pros had to go up and down the field in order to survive last year’s Jayhawks 55-40. Pooka Williams ran for 252 yards on 15 carries and will therefore have the attention of Sooners defense looking to show continued improvement prior to next week’s Red River Shootout. Oklahoma owns the nation’s most prolific offense with Jalen Hurts at the controls, but covering this number or eclipsing this total will likely hinge on freshman Spencer Rattler, the nation’s top QB recruit. He’s likely to get snaps with the second unit down the stretch and will probably be facing the first-team defense with Les Miles seeking improvement from a group that gave up a season-worst 51 points at TCU last week. .
TCU at Iowa State (-3.5/44), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Horned Frogs won’t be back in Fort Worth until they host Texas on Oct. 26. In order to have a shot at playing for a Big 12 title, they’ll need to pull off a number of road upsets. While freshman QB Max Duggan has taken over as the starter, K-State transfer Alex Delton has experience playing in Ames and should see time. Duggan is an Iowa native returning home and was recruited by the Cyclones. Top TCU corner Julius Lewis will make his debut opposite fellow senior Jeff Gladney, boosting one of the conference’s top secondaries. WR TreVontae Hights is also due back after missing last week’s rout of KU. The Cyclones come off a 23-21 loss at Baylor and have wasted a strong defensive effort in losing tight games against rival Iowa and the Bears in last week’s Big 12 opener. Iowa State DE JaQuan Bailey and center Colin Newell could miss this contest. The Frogs have won eight of 10 meetings in this series, last falling in Ames 14-7 in 2017. Rain could play a significant role in this contest, so keep an eye on the forecast.
Boston College at Louisville (-5/60.5), 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN: The loser of this one will take a second conference loss before facing Clemson, which each of these teams is forced to do later this month. It’s likely that whoever drops this game will miss out on a bowl game given their remaining schedules, which would be an easier pill to swallow for Louisville first-year head coach Scott Satterfield on the heels of a 2-10 season than it would be for Steve Addazio in a season where BC has the talent to win eight games for the first time since ’09. Losing to Kansas at home was a wakeup call and last week’s home loss to Wake Forest was disappointing, but the wrong team appears favored here. The Cards have to prove this season’s improvement against the run isn’t smoke and mirrors and must do so against standout backs AJ Dillon and David Bailey. Dillon ran for 272 yards and four touchdowns in his first visit to Louisville in leading BC to a 45-42 win. The Eagles won last season’s matchup 38-20. The ‘Ville likely won’t have top QB Puma Pass available due to a foot injury, but backup Malik Cunningham looks to be over an ankle issue and should start.
Late-night Snack
Washington (-14.5/52) at Stanford, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Cardinal hope to avoid becoming the first Pac-12 team to lose three conference games this season by pulling off an upset in their first game being this heavy an underdog since beating then No. 1 Oregon in Eugene as a 20-point underdog in 2012. Unfortunately for Stanford, constant shuffling along on the offensive line is expected to remain an issue. The left side of the line is comprised of freshmen. Junior QB KJ Costello is sidelined by a thumb injury, so sophomore Davis Mills will get another start after helping beat Oregon State last week with his arm in addition to a touchdown reception. The Huskies have looked impressive since losing at home 20-19 to Cal and will have all their remaining games against the league’s top teams in Seattle. We’ll get to see what killer instinct this group has since walking onto the Farm and winning a game by two-plus touchdowns just because you’re expected to is easier said than done. QB Jacob Eason has thrown 10 touchdown passes and completed over 70 percent of his attempts. He went 24-for-28 in his lone start at BYU, finishing with 290 passing yards and three touchdowns. Chris Petersen is 2-3 against David Shaw and Stanford since taking over at U-Dub and is looking for back-to-back wins in the series for the first time.
Auburn at Florida
October 4, 2019
By Brian Edwards
No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -2.5, Total 48.5
For the first time since 2011, Florida and Auburn will finally collide again Saturday afternoon at The Swamp in Gainesville. It’s easily the toughest ticket for a UF home game since the Tim Tebow Era ended in 2009.
Both teams are undefeated and looking to stay that way with brutal schedules on the horizon in the coming weeks. Both are also playing new quarterbacks that have thrown some life into their respective offenses.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn (5-0 straight up, 5-0 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. The Gators were +120 on the money line. The Westgate SuperBook was showing the best price on Auburn at -2.
Auburn owns an 8-5-1 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite during Gus Malzahn’s seven-year tenure. Meanwhile, UF won outright in its only home underdog spot since Mullen took over, beating LSU 27-19 last year as a 2.5-point home ‘dog. The Gators are 3-5 ATS in eight games as home ‘dogs since 2009.
Auburn won in come-from-behind fashion in its season opener, rallying to a 27-21 win over Oregon at Jerry World in Arlington. The Tigers took the cash as four-point favorites.
Since then, Malzahn’s bunch has won 24-6 vs. Tulane, 55-16 vs. Kent State, 28-20 at Texas A&M and 56-23 vs. Mississippi State. Auburn is one of only four schools with 5-0 spread records (the other three are down below in Bonus Nuggets).
Mississippi State got its clock cleaned on The Plains from start to finish last Saturday night. Auburn, which surprisingly went from a double-digit favorite down to -8 or -7.5 just before kickoff, raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first six minutes and one second of action. By intermission, the Tigers had a commanding 42-9 advantage.
Auburn racked up 580 yards of total offense and converted 6-of-10 third-down opportunities. True freshman QB Bo Nix was sensational, connecting on 16-of-21 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for 56 yards and one TD on only seven attempts.
JaTarvious Whitlow ran for 55 yards and three TDs on 10 carries. Seth Williams had eight receptions for 161 yards and two TDs, while Anthony Schwartz had two catches for 67 yards. Schwartz, WR with big-time wheels, also ran for 25 yards and one TD on three totes.
Nix, the five-star recruit, was in for spring practice and won the job in August over redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood. Nix passed my “eye test” right away against Oregon, especially with his work on the game-winning drive. Trailing 21-20 and in field-goal range, Nix decided to take a shot deep and found Williams with a 26-yard scoring strike with only nine seconds remaining.
Obviously, this prevented Auburn from depending on a kicker to boot a field goal from more than 40 yards out to win. Most important for our purposes, though, it hooked up Auburn backers with a winner as a four-point ‘chalk.’
For the season, Nix has completed 57.6 percent of his throws for 980 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He threw both picks against the Ducks and has five TD passes without an interception in AU’s last four games. Nix, who has improved every week and will most likely continue to do so, has 173 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.
Williams has emerged as Nix’s favorite target, pulling down 17 receptions for 289 yards and four TDs. Eli Stove has 18 catches for 177 yards and two TDs, while Will Hastings has nine grabs for 148 yards and one TD. Schwartz, who missed the first two games after breaking a bone in his hand in early August, has produced five receptions for 110 yards and 82 rushing yards and two TDs on just four carries.
Whitlow has been handline the bulk of the carries on the ground, rushing for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Kam Martin has 145 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.0 YPC average.
AU’s offense is ranked 14th in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 251.8 yards per game. The Tigers are ranked 24th in scoring with their 38.0 points-per-game average.
Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has done outstanding work with his unit since taking this job in 2016. The Tigers are ranked 19th in the country in run defense and 22nd in scoring ‘D’ (17.2 PPG).
Florida (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) opened the season with a 24-20 non-covering win over Miami down in Orlando. After an open date, the Gators beat up on UT-Martin by a 45-0 count as 44.5-point home favorites. They lost two-time, second-team All-SEC cornerback CJ Henderson to an ankle sprain against the Skyhawks, however.
Henderson has missed the last three games, but he’s good to go against Auburn. Truth be told, Henderson probably could’ve played last week vs. Towson and maybe even against Tennessee two weeks ago, but Mullen wisely held him out to be 100 percent vs. Auburn. Likewise, UF’s other preseason All-American, senior DE Jabari Zuniga, hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in the second half of a 29-21 win at Kentucky on Sept. 14. Zuniga is ready to go this week and probably could’ve played last week, too. Zuniga, a third-team All-SEC selection in 2018, had three sacks in UF’s first three games.
In Week 3, Florida saw starting QB Feleipe Franks go down with a dislocated ankle in the third quarter at Kentucky. The injury required season-ending surgery the following week.
Trailing 21-10 going into the fourth quarter, back-up QB Kyle Trask rose to the occasion. He sparked the UF offense to three TD drives in the fourth quarter of a 29-21 comeback win as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’ With 12:41 remaining, Trask ran left on the option and made a smooth pitch at the last second to LaMical Perine who strutted his way into the end zone for an eight-yard TD scamper.
Down 21-16 after a failed two-point conversion, Mullen called a QB draw for Trask and the middle was open for a four-yard TD run. The Gators failed on another two-point attempt and led 22-21, but Kentucky’s Chance Poore missed a short field goal wide right.
On a third-down play with Kentucky set to use its final timeout and get the ball back if it could stop UF short of a first down, Mullen called a sprint sweep to Josh Hammond. The senior WR found a crease and busted it 76 yards for a TD with 33 ticks left.
On Sept. 21 at home vs. Tennessee, Trask made his first start since his freshman year of high school. He was a back-up at the prep level behind Houston star QB D’Eriq King. Trask responded by hitting Kyle Pitts for a 19-yard scoring strike on the game’s opening drive.
Florida went to halftime with a 17-0 lead on the Volunteers. Trask put the Gators in front 24-3 with a 29-yard TD pass to Freddie Swain midway through the third quarter. Although he did throw a pair of second-half interceptions, Trask completed 20-of-28 passes for 293 yards in the 34-3 win over UT as a 13-point home favorite. His 293 passing yards were the most by a QB since Mullen took over (more than Franks in his 16 starts).
Trask has connected on 51-of-66 passes for 698 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of TD runs. Unlike Franks, he makes quick decisions and gets the ball out fast, and that’ll be key against Auburn’s stout defensive line.
UF’s weakness is its offensive line, so that matchup could be a major issue for the Gators. Mullen will need to get creative with his play-calling and do a masterful job in that department or Trask could take a lot of big hits vs. Auburn.
Trask has provided a major upgrade at the QB position, and he’s blessed with UF’s best and deepest group of WRs in a decade. Van Jefferson has 18 catches for 248 yards and one TD, while Trevon Grimes has 15 catches for 231 yards. Pitts is emerging as one of UF’s most improved players and one of the SEC top tight ends. He has 17 receptions for 189 yards and three TDs.
Hammond (14-176), Tyrie Cleveland (10-167-1 TD) and Swain (8-134-2 TDs) are also factors in the passing game. However, the explosive and versatile Kadarius Toney remains ‘out’ with a wrist injury sustained against UT-Martin.
Perine hasn’t had any room to navigate yardage on the ground. He’s been limited to 198 rushing yards and a 3.7 YPC average, but it’s not on him and he does have three rushing TDs. The senior RB also has 14 catches for 78 yards and one TD.
UF is ranked No. 89 in the country in rushing yards. The Gators are No. 29 in passing yards and No. 43 in scoring with their 34.0 PPG average.
Florida’s defense gets its two best players back and even with Zuniga and Henderson missing five combined games, Todd Grantham’s unit is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (8.8 PPG). The Gators are 18th in the country in total defense, No. 17 in run ‘D’ and No. 30 in passing defense.
UF senior LB David Reese has a team-high 36 tackles that ranks him fifth in the SEC. He has one sack and one tackle for loss. DE Jonathan Greenard is in a first-place tie with South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw for the SEC’s lead in sacks with four. Greenard, the transfer from Louisville, has 21 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries, three passes broken up, one forced fumble and one interception.
The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Auburn, 1-0 in its lone road assignment as the 48 combined points at Texas A&M inched ‘over’ the 47.5-point total. The Tigers’ games have averaged combined scores of 55.2 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Gators, 4-0 in their home games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 42.8 PPG.
Auburn has won three games in a row in this rivalry, including a 17-6 home win in 2011 and a 20-17 win at UF in 2007. In fact, the Tigers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings dating back to 2001.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
Bet and Collect Podcast
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- For what it’s worth, Florida was a four-point favorite vs. Auburn at most books this summer in Games of the Year lines.
-- Speaking of Games of the Year, the Westgate SuperBook released its updated lines earlier this week. UF is a 14-point underdog next week at LSU. Also in Week 7, Oklahoma is a 12.5-point favorite vs. Texas. If that line hold and keeps the Sooners as double-digit ‘chalk,’ it’ll leave Tom Herman as a double-digit underdog. In that role as a head coach at both Houston and Texas, Herman is 5-0 ATS with four outright victories. The Gators are 10-point underdogs for their Nov. 2 showdown vs. Georgia in Jacksonville. They’re 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. FSU in the regular-season finale.
-- Other notable Games of the Year from The Westgate: LSU -9.5 vs. Auburn, Alabama -12.5 vs. LSU and Alabama -11 at Auburn.
-- Florida is 13-3 SU at home vs. Auburn since 1973. The home team has won 22 of 30 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry since 1976. H/T to Phil Steele for both of those factoids.
-- UF-Auburn will take place 10 days shy of the 25-year anniversary of a showdown in The Swamp on Oct. 15 of 1994. Bo Nix’s father, Patrick Nix, found Frank Sanders for a TD pass in the final minute to rally Auburn past the top-ranked Gators in Gainesville.
-- Former Florida LB Kylan Johnson is thriving at Pittsburgh after leaving the Gators via the grad-transfer route. Johnson has 20 tackles, four sacks, two TFL’s, one forced fumble and one PBU. The Panthers are 3-1 both SU and ATS since losing their season opener 30-14 to Virginia at Heinz Field. The only loss during that span is a 17-10 defeat at unbeaten Penn State. Pat Narduzzi’s squad has won four games in a row over Duke both SU and ATS, but it is an underdog in Durham on Saturday. Pitt junior starting QB Kenny Pickett has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after a shoulder injury kept him out of last week’s 17-14 win over Delaware as a 27.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Panthers are 13-6 ATS as road underdogs during Narduzzi’s five-year tenure. Since 2012, Duke is 19-15 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ despite limping to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season. As of Friday, most books had the Blue Devils favored by five points for this 8:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff on the ACC Network.
-- Duke senior QB Quentin Harris has an 18/3 career TD-INT ratio and nine rushing touchdowns.
-- Northwestern, a 7.5-point road underdog at Nebraska, is 28-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2008. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, six of eight meetings with the Wildcats have been one-possession games, and five of those contests were decided by three points or less. Also, Northwestern is 4-0 ATS in the four games played in Lincoln.
-- Colorado head coach Mel Tucker told the Denver Post Monday that star WR Laviska Shenault will be game-time decisions for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona. Shenault was a fourth-team All-American in 2018 despite playing in only eight games. He had 86 receptions for 1,011 yards and six TDs last year, in addition to 115 rushing yards and five TDs with a 6.8 YPC. Colorado senior DT Mustafa Johnson, who had 7.5 sacks and 16 QB hurries in 2018, has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ due to an ankle injury. Arizona QB Khalil Tate (hamstring) and RB J.J. Taylor (ankle) both missed last week’s 20-17 home win over UCLA, and both remain ‘questionable’ against the Buffaloes.
-- UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is ‘questionable’ vs. Oregon State. ‘DTR’ has thrown for 1,253 yards and has an 11/6 TD-INT ratio for the Bruins, who are 4-13 since hiring Chip Kelly.
-- Stanford QB K.J. Costello is ‘out’ again this week vs. Washington due to a thumb injury. The Huskies had been favored by 16.5 points for most of the week, but the number dropped to 15 or 14.5 by Friday afternoon. The Cardinal is 4-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog during David Shaw’s nine-year tenure, but let me be clear that that’s not an endorsement in this spot.
-- Akron, the only team in the nation with a 0-5 ATS record, has an open date this weekend ahead of an Oct. 12 home tilt vs. Kent State.
-- Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, FIU and Vanderbilt are 0-4 ATS.
-- The four schools with 5-0 spread records include Auburn, Oklahoma State, Louisiana and SMU. Meanwhile, Washington, Wyoming and Ohio State are 4-1 versus the number.
-- Purdue first-team All-American WR Rondale Moore (leg) is ‘out’ of Saturday’s game at Penn State. Junior QB Elijah Sindelar had surgery earlier this week to repair his broken collarbone. He is ‘out’ indefinitely, perhaps for the rest of the season.
-- The ‘over’ is 5-0 for Charlotte and SMU, 4-0 for LSU. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is 4-0 for Tulsa, East Carolina, Old Dominion and San Diego State.
-- TCU is 19-8-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2005. The Horned Frogs are 3.5-point ‘dogs at Iowa State for a noon Eastern kick on ESPN2.
-- Rutgers QB McLane Carter is ‘out’ again this week at home vs. Maryland. Johnny Langan will start for the Scarlet Knights against the Terrapins, who are 13.5-point road favorites. According to a report from Football Scoop, former Rutgers HC Greg Schiano resigned as New England Patriots defensive coordinator in March because he informed Bill Belichick that boosters at his former school told him he’d be the top target if/when Chris Ash was fired. Since Schiano reportedly wants his old gig back, he and Belichick agreed that it wouldn’t work with the Patriots if he planned on leaving the club in November or December to return to New Jersey.
-- Boise State, a 23-point road favorite at UNLV, is 41-17-1 in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Broncos have had two weeks to prep for the Rebels, who are 3-7 ATS in 10 games as home underdogs during Tony Sanchez’s tenure. Although UNLV QB Armani Rogers (leg injury) has been upgraded to ‘probable,’ Sanchez has named redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad as his starting QB vs. BSU.