Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/24/19
College football Week 9 opening odds and early action: Bettors on LSU vs Auburn
Patrick Everson
Louisiana State is a perfect 7-0 SU heading into its Week 9 SEC clash against visiting Auburn. LSU opened as an 11.5-point favorite and was quickly bet up to -12 at PointsBet USA.
We’re two weeks away from the first College Football Playoff rankings release, and the Week 9 schedule could have a big impact on those ratings. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA.
No. 10 Auburn Tigers at No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers (-11.5)
It’s a battle of two Tigers, with Louisiana State holding the upper hand heading into this Saturday afternoon Southeastern Conference clash. LSU (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) has won all its games by at least 14 points, including a 36-13 victory at Mississippi State as 17.5-point favorites in Week 8.
Auburn hit a speed bump at Florida in Week 6, losing 24-13 as 2.5-point favorites, so it can ill afford another loss. Auburn (6-1 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7, then pounded Arkansas 51-10 as 20.5-point road faves last weekend.
Early bettors seem to like the Bayou Bengals better, as the number quickly moved to LSU -12.
“LSU continues to be a runaway train, and despite Auburn boasting a pretty strong resume, the public is continuing to ride LSU,” Chaprales said. “The number has already moved in LSU’s direction. While it remains to be seen how high the action will drive it, we’ll be needing Auburn one way or another.”
No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14)
Wisconsin was certainly a part of the CFP conversation until Week 8, when it suffered one of the season’s most stunning losses. The Badgers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) went to Illinois as 28.5-point favorites, led 20-7 early in the third quarter, then tumbled outright 24-23 on a field goal in the final seconds.
Ohio State has been just fine on the field and against the oddsmakers, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, cashing the last six games. The Buckeyes boatraced Northwestern 52-3 in a Week 8 Friday nighter, easily covering as hefty 26.5-point road favorites.
“This matchup was obviously looking quite a bit more enticing before Saturday, but Ohio State was going to open as big favorites regardless of Wisconsin’s result,” Chaprales said. “The first few tickets have been on the Buckeyes laying the two touchdowns.”
No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)
Notre Dame could still have a place at the CFP table, but another loss would certainly wipe out any hopes of making the four-team field. The Fighting Irish (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS), whose only setback was at Georgia, edged Southern California 30-27 laying 10.5 points at home in Week 7. Brian Kelly’s squad had a bye in Week 8.
Michigan’s goose is already cooked as it relates to the CFP, with two losses already and Ohio State looming at season’s end. In Week 8 at Penn State, the Wolverines (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) rallied from a 21-0 deficit, falling short on a late fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line in a 28-21 loss catching 7.5 points.
“Notre Dame’s tight loss to Georgia a few weeks ago is suddenly not looking as impressive, while Michigan’s slim playoff hopes were officially extinguished by Penn State,” Chaprales said. “Early action has landed on the Irish, resulting in an adjustment down to Michigan -1.5.”
The Wolverines dipped to -1 by Monday afternoon.
Washington State Cougars at No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-13.5)
Oregon remains the Pac-12’s best-though-unlikely hope for a CFP bid, with its lone loss coming to Auburn in a Week 1 neutral-site contest. The Ducks (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 third-quarter deficit at Washington to nab a 35-31 win and cover as 3-point favorites Saturday.
Washington State had higher expectations for this season, but a three-game skid – starting with a 67-63 home loss to UCLA after leading 49-17 as 18-point chalk – squelched those hopes. The Cougars (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) got back on track in Week 8 against Colorado with a 41-10 home rout giving 13.5 points.
“This one looks pretty cut and dried – Oregon or pass for the public,” Chaprales said. “We went up with 13.5, but it probably won’t take much for it to move to 14.”
In fact, by Monday afternoon, PointsBet moved the line to Ducks -14.
by: Monty Andrews
DEVITO BACK IN CHARGE
Tommy DeVito has been listed as the starting quarterback for Syracuse's Saturday encounter with Florida State, though you could hardly blame the guy for wanting a breather.
DeVito was knocked out of last Friday's home loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the third quarter after taking repeated hard hits. he was sacked nine times in all in that defeat, bringing the Orange's season total to a whopping 35 sacks – easily the most in the country. Clayton Welsh will be on standby if any further damage is done to DeVito, who has thrown for 1,635 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
The Seminoles come in having recorded just two total sacks in their past three games, but they had six versus Louisville on September 21, and this Syracuse offensive line is even worse. We like the home team to cover as a double-digit favorite.
HUNTLEY NOT DONE YET
Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley might not play this weekend against visiting California, but he hasn't been lost for the season. Huntley took some punishing hits in last week's win over Arizona State and is dealing with an upper-body injury that was first thought to be season ending.
But Huntley will reportedly return at some point this season and, though there was some question over his available for this weekend, Huntley told reporters he plans on facing the Golden Bears. Huntley has been sensational so far this season with 1,564 passing yards and nine touchdown passes against just one interception.
Huntley might be at full strength this weekend but there's a good chance he won't be, and it's hard to see him leading Utah to 30-plus points against a Cal team that hasn't allowed that many in a game all season. We favor the Under on Utah's team total.
MORE HELP FOR JOE?
Joe Burrow's Heisman Trophy candidacy has a full head of steam and the LSU quarterback might be in for another boost this weekend.
Wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. is hoping to return versus Auburn Saturday for his first game action since suffering a foot injury in the Tigers' September 21 victory over Vanderbilt. And while the Tigers' offense hasn't missed a beat in Marshall's absence – averaging an incredible 50.1 points per game on the season – the return of Marshall should make things even tougher on opposing defenses. Marshall has 20 receptions for 304 yards and six touchdowns on the year.
Marshall's comeback should solidify Burrow as the man to beat in the Heisman race, but it does put a damper on the props for the Tigers' two other marquee receivers. This might be a good weekend to fade both Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase on their respective yardage props, particularly against a challenging Tigers defense.
WELCOME BACK!
The Maryland Terrapins will be undoubtedly thrilled to have running back Anthony McFarland Jr. at full strength for Saturday's encounter with host Minnesota.
McFarland missed last week's loss to Indiana and played just four snaps the week before in a defeat at Purdue after suffering an ankle injury. However, head coach Mike Locksley says he expects the redshirt sophomore to be back in action against the Golden Gophers. McFarland is having a terrific season with the Terrapins, rushing for 340 yards and seven touchdowns (on 5.2 yards per carry) while adding nine catches for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Maryland is 2-1 SU and ATS in three games this season in which McFarland has rushed for 75-plus yards and while the Gophers have a stout defense, the Terrapins should do enough on offense to cover as 17-point underdogs.