NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 10

Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

College Football Week 10 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-11
Against the Spread 28-21

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 28-21
Against the Spread 22-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 24-23-2

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 490-124
Against the Spread 315-288-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 409-201
Against the Spread 298-301-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 292-317-11

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Georgia Southern (+14, ML +500) at Appalachian State, 24-21
Oregon State (+5, ML +170) at Arizona, 56-38
Purdue (+4, ML +160) vs. Nebraska, 31-27
Boston College (+3, ML +140) at Syracuse, 58-27
BYU (+3, ML +135) at Utah State, 42-14

The largest favorites to cover
Navy (-26.5) at Connecticut, 56-10
Liberty (-23.5) at Massachusetts, 63-21
Louisiana (-23) vs. Texas State, 31-3
North Texas (-22.5) vs. UTEP, 52-26
Michigan (-21.5) at Maryland, 38-7

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- SMU-Memphis was front and center on the nationally-televised stage on ABC, and the combatants did not disappoint. The Tigers outlasted the previously unbeaten Mustangs by a 54-48 count, hanging on for the cover. The 'over' (72) cashed yet again for SMU, going to 8-0-1 in their eight games overall. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS across the past seven, and the 'over' has hit in their past six, too. ... Navy rolled Connecticut by a 56-10 count on Friday night, and they're not 4-1 ATS in the past five, and 6-2 ATS across their eight games overall. The 'over' is also 5-1 in Navy's past six. ... East Carolina gave Cincinnati all they could handle in a 46-43 victory which required a game-winning field goal at the buzzer. The lead went back and forth, and ECU led by 12 at the end of three quarters before Cincinnati woke up. ECU has dropped four in a row to slip to 3-6 SU, but they're 4-1 ATS over the past five and the 'over' is 3-0 to make bettors happy.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Miami-Florida State used to be the most anticipated game of the season in football, but not it is a bit of an afterthought with both teams having down years. The Hurricanes have won and covered three of the past four, moving within one win of bowl eligibility. They have covered in consecutive games for the first time this season, too. As far as FSU is concerned, they're 4-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS overall. They're still a friend to bettors, however, as the 'under' has connected in six in a row. ... Virginia Tech gave Notre Dame a tremendous fight in South Bend, coming up just short by a 21-20 score, as the Irish bounced back from their beatdown at the Big House last week. The Hokies entered the game averaging 39.7 PPG, and they're still 3-1 ATS over the past four despite Saturday's loss. ... Pittsburgh won an unimpressive 20-10 defensive battle at Georgia Tech. The Panther attained bowl eligibility, moving to 6-3 SU, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four while hitting the 'under' in three straight, and seven of the nine games overall. ... Boston College went to the Carrier Dome and hammered Syracuse by a 58-27 count, as the Orange have now dropped four in a row while failing to cover five straight. They're 1-7 ATS over the past eight, too.

BIG TEN
-- Illinois moved to within one win of bowl eligibility, taking care of Rutgers by a 38-10 score. The Illini have won three in a row, and they're 4-0 ATS across the past four while the 'under' is 3-0. Are you believing in the Illini now? They might have another low-scoring battle at Michigan State next week. The Illini are creating plenty of turnovers, and the defense has allowed just 13.0 PPG acros the past three. ... Indiana rolled Northwestern at 'The Rock' by a 34-3 score, as the Hoosiers are quietly 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS, while the Wildcats slipped to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Northwestern has scored just six total points across the past three outings, too. ... Michigan didn't have a hangover after impressive win over the Irish, blasting Maryland by a 38-7 score in College Park. The Wolverines have covered three in a row, and they're 5-1 SU/ATS across the past six. They'll have two weeks to prepare for their rivals from East Lansing.

BIG 12
-- The public was all over Les Miles' Kansas side in their rivalry game against Kansas State. That's never a good side to be on. The Wildcats went to Lawrence and belted the Jayhawks 38-10, carrying over momentum from their win over Oklahoma. Suddenly the Wildcats have won and covered three in a row, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite this season. The 'under' is also 4-1 across the past five. ... Baylor limped past West Virginia in a sloppy, low-scoring defensive battle on Thursday night, 17-14. Regardless, the Bears are 8-0 SU, while going 4-4 ATS. ... There were just three games in the Big 12, as Oklahoma State topped TCU, 34-27. The Horned Frogs are 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six for TCU, which makes them a favorite of bettors at the window.

CONFERENCE USA
-- Florida Atlantic won and covered on the road for the second straight weekend, topping Western Kentucky 35-24. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite. They have scored 28 or more points in each of the past seven outings. FAU is also 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in five road games this season while the 'over' is 3-1-1 in those battles. ... Charlotte won at home as underdogs, topping Middle Tennessee by a 34-20 count. The 49ers have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, moving to 4-5 SU/ATS with a winnable road trip to UTEP on the horizon. ... North Texas had one of their most impressive wins of the season, stomping UTEP by a 52-26 count. The cover slapped the brakes on an 0-4 ATS skid. The 'over' has now cashed in five in a row for the Mean Green.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Bowling Green welcomed winless Akron and topped the Zips 35-6. Akron was just a four-point underdogs in this one despite the fact they're now 0-9 SU/ATS. In fact, they're the only FBS team yet to cover this season. ... Buffalo went on the road and crushed Eastern Michigan by a 43-14 count. The Bulls inched closer to bowl eligibility at 5-4 SU, winning their third in a row while covering for the fourth straight. They'll travel to Kent State on Nov. 14, as mid-week MAC games behind in the upcoming week. ... Central Michigan punished Northern Illinois 48-10, as the Chippewas fired out to a 21-3 lead after one quarter and never looked back. The total in this game was 49, and there were 48 points on the board at halftime. A scoreless third quarter scared over bettors, but eventually it came through in the fourth. The Chips are now 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five outings, and they're 2-0/ATS as a home underdog this season.

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- San Jose State put a scare into Boise State, leading for a good chunk of the game. However, the Broncos outscored the Spartans 21-8 in the fourth quarter to narrowly escape with a 52-42 victory. The Spartans covered the 16.5-point spread, and they're now 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, including two straight-up victories. ... Fresno State headed for the islands and topped Hawaii, 41-38. The Warriors missed a chance to attain bowl eligibility, although they still have three more chances to secure that sixth win. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four for Hawaii. ... It wasn't pretty, but Nevada posted a 21-10 victory over New Mexico as the 'under' (57) easily cashed. The Wolf Pack have had their issues at times, especially defensively, but they're within one win of bowl eligibility. Overall they're 2-5-1 ATS across the past eight, with the 'under' 3-0 in the past three. ... BYU headed up to Logan and blasted Utah State, 42-14. The Aggies are leaking oil after a 3-1 SU/ATS start, going just 1-3 SU across the past four, and 1-4 ATS over the past five.

PAC-12
-- Some folks saw the Oregon State-Arizona game as a trap for the Wildcats, and they were right. The high-octane Beavers piled up 28 points in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 56-38. The Beavers are now 4-4 SU overall, and 6-1 ATS across the past seven outings. ... Oregon went down to the Coliseum and smashed USC, 56-24. The Ducks have won eight in a row, while hitting the 'over' in three in a row and covering three of the past four. More importantly, the Pac-12's playoff hopes are alive and well. ... UCLA posted a 31-14 victory over Colorado, winning and covering for the third straight outing. They're 4-5 SU, but have a chance at a bowl still, and an outside chance at the Pac-12 Championship game if they can win out. ... Utah went to Washington and won 33-28, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. The Utes are the team nobody seems to be talking about, but they're a sleeper. They have won and covered five in a row since a seven-point loss at USC on Sept. 20.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Georgia topped Florida by a 24-17 count in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville. The 'under' cashed in the top-10 battle, which is now 6-3 in nine games overall for the Gators. The under has cashed in three straight for the Bulldogs, too, and five of the past six overall. ... Auburn won an uninspiring 20-14 game against Mississippi, as the Tigers failed to cover for just the second time in nine tries this season. The 'under' is 3-1 over the past four, as the offense has scored 20 or less in each of those under games. ... South Carolina topped Vanderbilt in a low-scoring 24-7 score, as the Gamecocks suffered several injuries. They still covered, going 2-0 SU/ATS in the past two at home as a double-digit favorite.

SUN BELT
-- Georgia Southern stunned Appalachian State 24-21, more than likely ending their chances at a New Year's Day bowl game unless they can rebound and pick up a win at South Carolina next week. Even then, it might be an uphill climb. After going 5-1 ATS in the first six outings they are 0-2 ATS in the past two. ... Coastal Carolina edged Troy 36-35 as the Chanticleers moved to 4-4 SU/5-3 ATS, needing two games for bowl eligibility.

Bad Beats

-- If you were holding a total ticket in the Illinois-Rutgers game, it was a bummer for those with a total of 48. At 14:09 of the fourth quarter, the Illini went up 38-10. There were no more points the rest of the way, as most tickets ended in an unfulfilling push. Technically, it was a 'good' beat for those who bet the under.

-- With a total of 57, under bettors were looking good in Nebraska-Purdue with just 30 points on the board heading into the fourth quarter. With 6:50 remaining in regulation, the Boilermakers took a 24-20 lead, still looking pretty good. Nebraska scored with 4:21 to go, re-taking the lead, and Purdue went back ahead 31-27 with 1:08 left to deal under bettors a sour taste.

-- With a total of 55 and a line of 37.5, Texas A&M led 45-7 with under five to go. The Aggies were inexplicably passing, and Texas-San Antonio had the 58-yard pick six to cut the lead to 45-14, pushing the game over while gaining the backdoor cover for the Roadrunners.

-- Over bettors (78.5) in UTEP-North Texas were saying bad words. With 3:16 to go, UTEP scored to pull within 52-26. They elected to go for two, failing on the pass attempt. An extra point would have pushed the total over. Ugh.

4th Quarter Covers - Week 10
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 10th weekend of the college football season to start November. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Coastal Carolina (+2) 36, Troy 35: It was clear early on that this Sun Belt game would be a high-scoring back-and-forth affair with five touchdowns combined in the first quarter. Coastal Carolina scored 11 points out the break to lead by seven, but Troy answered to tie the game heading into the final frame on a spread that was near-even most of the week with the Trojans closing as a slight favorite. Troy got the ball back in the fourth and connected for a touchdown to go up by seven with just over eight minutes remaining. The Chanticleers couldn’t answer, but pinned Troy deep and got the ball back with over two minutes remaining though having already used up all three timeouts. Bryce Carpenter and Coastal Carolina faced only one third down in an 11-play drive resulting in a touchdown and playing to win Coastal Carolina went for two. Pass interference was called on the initial failed conversion, but inched closer on the retry CJ Marable raced in to take the lead and secure the clear cover for Coastal Carolina.

Pittsburgh (-9½) 20, Georgia Tech 10: Pittsburgh had a nearly 2-to-1 yardage edge while holding Georgia Tech below 200 yards for the game, but the Yellow Jackets got a third quarter field goal following a blocked punt to trail by only seven. The Yellow Jackets were poised to tie the game reaching 1st-and-goal from the 6-yard-line, but fumbled on 3rd down with a 79-yard return setting up a Pittsburgh field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter to put the Panthers back up by 10, past a spread that jumped from -7½ to -9½. Pittsburgh couldn’t put the game away missing a 44-yard field goal later in the fourth but Georgia Tech’s next play was an interception. The Yellow Jackets would punt deep in their own territory with more than six minutes remaining and never held the ball again as Pittsburgh escaped with the win and narrow cover.

Purdue (+4) 31, Nebraska 27: Adrian Martinez returned for Nebraska and fueled a 10-0 first quarter for the Cornhuskers. By halftime, Purdue led 14-10 however, scoring with 14 seconds before the break on 3rd down to complete a 96-yard drive. Nebraska took a 3-point lead early in the fourth quarter and still led by three with about four minutes remaining after an exchange of touchdowns with a road favorite spread that was commonly at -3 upon release before sliding upward to -4 by kickoff. Purdue went 82 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute remaining relying on Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after Jack Plummer was injured again earlier in the fourth quarter.

North Texas (-22) 52, UTEP 26: North Texas pulled away late in the second quarter and led by 18 through three quarters. A touchdown with about nine minutes remaining put the Mean Green in front by 25 and past the heavy favorite spread. UTEP would put together an 11-play touchdown drive ending with just over three minutes to go to sit behind by only 18. That margin would hold after North Texas took a knee at the UTEP 11-yard-line without adding points.

Arkansas State (-1) 48, UL-Monroe 41: The Warhawks led 21-3 early in this game before four touchdowns from Arkansas State in the span of just over 12 minutes in the second quarter. UL-Monroe would rally to tie the game by the end of the third quarter, but the Red Wolves would strike first in the fourth and would add a second touchdown in the middle of the fourth to pull away. The Warhawks got back within seven and crossed midfield on its final drive before running out of time.

Tulane (-10) 38, Tulsa 26: Tulsa led 13-10 in the second quarter, but would be down 31-16 by the end of the third quarter with a defensive score for Tulane part of the turnaround. The Golden Hurricane would climb within five with 10 minutes to go but on 4th-and-goal with fewer than five minutes to go Tulane was able to cross the goal line and slip past the favorite spread with a 12-point final margin as a torturous run of late-game stumbles continued for Tulsa.

Utah (-3) 33, Washington 28: Washington led 21-13 late in the third quarter before a pick-6 put Utah right back in the game. The Utes missed on the two-point conversion, but added a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to suddenly lead by 12. Washington would score a late touchdown, but it wasn’t enough as the Utes avenged the Pac-12 championship loss from last season while stealing the cover as well in a game that Washington didn’t trail in until the fourth quarter.

South Carolina (-14½) 24, Vanderbilt 7: The Gamecocks led 14-7 through three quarters despite dominating the production in the game. A fourth quarter field goal after an interception calmed the upset risk and after forcing a punt the Gamecocks put the game away with a 76-yard touchdown drive completed with about six minutes remaining. Vanderbilt had another interception on its next possession as South Carolina escaped with the win and the narrow favorite cover.

Memphis (-5½) 54, SMU 48: The showcase game in the AAC Saturday night lived up to its billing much of the way before Memphis pulled away late in the third quarter. Down 16 entering the fourth quarter, SMU was able to get eight to cut the margin in half, but about a minute later, the Tigers were back in the end zone. Memphis would go up 54-32 with about nine minutes remaining but SMU delivered a long run to stay in the game. Down 14 with just over two minutes to go, SMU found the end zone and again went for two, converting a third straight two-pointer with this late conversion having a big impact on plenty of folks with late week numbers of -6 or -6½ on the Tigers.

Nevada (-4) 21, New Mexico 10: The Wolf Pack scored a pair of touchdowns in the span of three minutes in the second quarter to lead by seven at the break. New Mexico managed a field goal in the third to trail by four, even with the closing spread though lines as high as -6½ and as low as -3 were possible at various times. Early in the fourth quarter, New Mexico reached the Nevada 11-yard-line but failed going for it on 4th-and-1. A series of punts followed before a solid return sparked a short-field Nevada touchdown drive to go up by 11 with just over five minutes remaining. New Mexico’s final drive reached Nevada territory before four straight incomplete passes for a Lobos team not used to throwing.

Fresno State (+2) 41, Hawai’i 38: The Warriors led by 10 at halftime, getting 48-yard touchdown 23 seconds before the break. In the third quarter, Fresno State took over, outscoring Hawai’i 17-0 to take a 31-24 lead into the fourth and a few minutes into the final frame the Bulldogs went up by 14 after an interception. Hawai’i turned in a long drive to answer but came up empty despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 4. Getting the ball back with fewer than four minutes remaining Hawai’i got back within seven and then saw Fresno State fumble on the kickoff. Five plays later, the game was tied with just over a minute remaining with a roughing the passer call aiding the drive led by Chevan Cordeiro, who took over for Cole McDonald earlier in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs were left with enough time and with limited resistance. Fresno State reached long field goal range. On 3rd-and-10, Fresno State picked up 13 yards to make it a more manageable kick and Cesar Silva was good from 37 yards to seal the minor upset as time expired.