NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 5

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 44-11
Against the Spread 25-30

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-18
Against the Spread 27-28

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-31-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 294-50
Against the Spread 171-166-7

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 246-94
Against the Spread 159-174-7

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 161-179-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Massachusetts (+8.5, ML +260) vs. Akron, 37-29
Houston (+8, ML +250) at North Texas, 46-25
Arkansas State (+7, ML +230) at Troy, 50-43
Arizona State (+4.5, ML +180) at California, 24-17

The largest favorites to cover
Syracuse (-37.5) vs. Holy Cross, 41-3
Florida (-33) vs. Towson, 38-0
Michigan (-27.5) vs. Rutgers, 52-0
Oklahoma (-27) vs. Texas Tech, 55-16

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Memphis topped Navy in an game on Thursday night, 35-23. The Midshipmen were leading the Tigers 20-14 at halftime, but the second half was a different story with the Tigers outscoring the Middles 21-3 in the final 30 minutes. It wasn't what would be called a bad beat, but the Tigers scored a 31-yard touchdown from Brady White to Damonte Coxie with 11:27 left to give the Tigers the cover and hit the number for over bettors. ... Cincinnati smashed Marshall, 52-14, hitting the 'over' (46.5) themselves. Luke Fickell's group is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with the only non-cover that 42-0 whitewashing at Ohio State on Sept. 7. The over was the first in four games for the Bearcats. ... Temple scored a nice win for the conference, topping Georgia Tech, 24-2. It was a little revenge against a Power 5 team, after UCF lost at Pitt, an ACC team, last week. ... SMU has quietly opened 5-0 SU/ATS. They wrecked South Florida by a 48-21 score. The Mustangs have rolled up 37 or more points in each of their five games, cashing the 'over' in all five outings.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Clemson left Kenan Stadium with a 21-20 victory over North Carolina. The Tar Heels scored a late touchdown and elected to go for two, coming up just short. The Tigers were outplayed for most of the game, but most good teams find a way to survive and advance. That's just what they did. ... Duke lost QB Daniel Jones to the NFL this past offseason, and they were expected to be rather middling. Ask Virginia Tech if that's accurate. The Blue Devils humbled the Hokies 45-10 in Blacksburg. Duke is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with their only loss to Alabama in their neutral-site opener. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row, too, as Duke has 41 or more points in each of the outings. ... The Blue Devils will welcome Pittsburgh in their next home game. The Panthers limped to a 17-14 win over FCS Delaware, perhaps a bit of a hangover after a huge win over UCF last week. To be fair, the Blue Hens were ranked No. 19 in the FCS rankings entering the week, so they're no slouch. Still, the Panthers were favored by four touchdowns. ... Those Vegas guys are pretty good sometimes. Syracuse was listed as a 37.5-point favorite over FCS Holy Cross. They ended up winning 41-3. Gordie Lockbaum wasn't walking through that door for the Crusaders today. ... Notre Dame was down at half to Virginia, but they bounced back at Georgia after their loss a week ago. The Irish have now covered three in a row after failing to cover by a point and a half in Louisville on Sept. 2.

BIG TEN

-- Penn State obliterated Maryland by a 59-0 count. Anyone holding an 'over' (59.5) ticket is likely none too pleased with the Terrapins. Since firing out of the box with 142 total points and a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in the first two games, the Terps are 0-2 SU/ATS while being outscored 79-17 in the past two. ... Michigan rebounded from their loss in Madison last week, thumping Rutgers, 52-0. The Wolverines outgained the Scarlet Knights 476-154 in total yards while picking up 28 first downs to 10. ... Wisconsin might have endured a bit of a hangover, too, after their big win over Michigan. The Badgers weren't pretty, especially with those throwback tan pants and 'UW' helmets, but they got it done 24-15 over Northwestern. The Wildcats have been a thorn in the side of Bucky over the years. ... Minnesota went to Ross-Ade Stadium and took care of Purdue by a 38-31 score to move to 4-0 SU. More importantly it was the first cover of the season for the Gophers (1-2-1 ATS). The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for Minny, too. ... Ohio State hammered Nebraska by a 48-7 score, moving to 4-0 ATS over the past four outings. Ohio State has scored 42 or more points in all five of their games.

BIG 12

-- It was a slow week in the Big 12, with a total of just four games, all conference battles, in action. Kansas was back to themselves, and that's not a good thing. TCU roughed up the Jayhawks 51-14, firing out to a 38-0 halftime lead and never looking back. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 ATS and the over/under is 2-2. One consistent thing about the Horned Frogs has been their offense, posting 34 or more points in each outing. They allowed 41 in their loss against SMU on Sept. 21, but they have allowed a total of 34 points in their other thee outings. ... Oklahoma hammered Texas Tech, 55-16. They fired out to a 17-0 start after the first quarter to set the tone early. Oddly enough, with a total of 71, this game pushed at most shops. The Sooners have now covered three in a row. ... Baylor edged Iowa State, 23-21, kicking a last-second field goal for the win. Matt Rhule's bunch is now 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS, covering both home games vs. FBS opponents.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic hit the road for Charlotte, and they partied like it was 2017. They won 45-27 in the Conference USA road opener, moving to 3-2 SU. The Owls have scored 41 or more points in three consecutive games, too, as the Lane Train is rolling again, halfway to bowl eligibility. ... Middle Tennessee got spanked 48-3 at lowa, as head coach Rick Stockstill is finding life to be difficult after his son graduated. The Blue Raiders were down 24-0 at halftime, and it obviously didn't get much better after that. The Blue Raiders covered the opener at Michigan, but they're 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS over the past three. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in four games for MTSU this season, as they have allowed 40 or more points in three of those contests, all against Power 5 schools, though. ... North Texas fell to Houston 46-25, as the Mean Green fell as six-point favorites at home.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo scored a nice win for the conference, topping BYU 28-21 at the Glass Bowl. They entered the fourth quarter down 21-14. It was actually their first win by seven or more points after entering the fourth quarter down by seven or more since Oct. 16, 1971 vs. Western Michigan (down 24-14, won 35-24), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. ... Speaking of Western Michigan, they topped rival Central Michigan 31-15 in Kalamazoo. Officially, this game was a push, as a majority of shops closed at 16. However, some might have gotten this as high as 17.5 and some might have laid just 15. This line differed by as many as two and a half points this week. ... Akron continues to struggle mightily, hitting rock bottom in a 37-29 loss at Massachusetts as 6.5-point favorites. The Zips are now 0-5 SU/ATS, and they have allowed at least 31 points in all five games this season. ... Miami-Ohio booted Buffalo, 34-20, as the 'over' (50) connected. The over is 13-5 in the past 18 for Buffalo, and 8-3 in their past 11 on the road. The over is 5-1 in Miami's past six overall. In this series, the over is 8-1 in the past nine in Oxford, and 6-1 in the past seven battles overall.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- New Mexico outlasted New Mexico State in a crazy 55-52 victory in Albuquerque. When the Lobos and Aggies hook up there are plenty of points sure to follow. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for UNM so far, as they have averaged 36.0 PPG on offense while yielding 46.3 PPG on defense. ... San Jose State scored a huge victory for their program, topping Arkansas by a 31-24 count. It was the first win against a Power 5 opponent since 2006 for the Spartans. The 'under' has cashed in all three games for San Jose State so far, ans they're a respectable 2-1 SU. The cover was their first of the season, too. ... Nevada posted a nice 37-21 road win over UTEP, moving to 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' is also 3-1 in four games for the Wolf Pack. ... Utah State earned the 23-17 victory at San Diego State to move to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. ... Boise State remained perfect at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS after topping Air Force on Friday night by a 30-19 score. After UCF's lost to Pitt, the Broncos are now likely the top Group of Five entrant.
PAC-12

-- There are no more unbeaten teams in the conference after California was tripped up 24-17 in Berkeley by Arizona State. The Bears lost starting QB Chase Garbers (shoulder) in the first half, and backup QB Devon Modster was a train wreck. The Bears will have issues at Oregon next week if Garbers isn't available, and he likely won't be. ... Washington has restored order after their loss to Cal earlier, dropping USC by a 28-14 count. Sure, the Trojans are down to their third-string QB due to injuries, but this one was closer than some thought. USC is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home, and 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. ... UCLA-Arizona was a tussle, as the Bruins lost QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (ankle) to an injury, while the Wildcats were already without QB Khalil Tate (lower body). The Wildcats hung on for the 20-17 win, but the Bruins covered for the second consecutive road game.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Texas A&M edged rivals Arkansas 31-27 in a neutral-site battle in Arlington, Tex. The Razorbacks did a good job after an embarrassing loss at home to San Jose State last week, but the results are the same. The Aggies improved to 3-2 SU, and 1-1 in the SEC, but they have failed to cover in each of the past two. ... Florida stepped out of conference for the 38-0 win over FCS Towson in a tune-up for Auburn next time out. ... Speaking of Auburn, they roughed up Mississipp State, and finally got the pass game going. ... Vanderbilt nipped Northern Illinois, 24-18, as the Huskies officially covered at most shops as a 6.5-point underdog. It was Vandy's first win in four games, but they're 0-4 ATS. ... Alabama paddled Mississippi by a 59-31 count in a high-scoring affair at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Rebels grabbed the cover, just their second in five outings this season. Howver, they're 2-0 ATS against SEC opponents.

SUN BELT

-- Texas State won for the second straight weekend, topping FCS Nicholls State 24-3. That doesn't sound terribly impressive, but Nicholls is ranked in the Top 25. ... Arkansas State outlasted Troy by a 50-43 count in the highest scoring game of the entire FBS weekend. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two games for the Red Wolves. ... Louisiana-Lafayette took care of Georgia Southern by a 37-24 score as the 'over' connected. With a total of 54 points on the board, the Ragin' Cajuns picked up a touchdown to push the total over, 37-23, flipping the total from under to over.

Bad Beats

-- On Friday night, Air Force worked over San Jose State, 41-24. The Spartans were down 41-10 with 7:48 left in regulation. They scored a TD with 3:51 left. Falcons bettors, on the right side all night, saw Air Force go for it on fourth and short and miss inside their own territory. The Spartans took over and backup QB Nick Nash hit TE Derrick Deese Jr. for a score with :52 left for the backdoor cover and bad beat. And under (56.5) bettors thought the TD with 3:51 was a bad beat. Nah. The line change inside the final minute was much worse.

-- Also on Friday, Duke scored a touchdown with 3:37 to go, already up 38-10, flipping the total from an under to an over. It wasn't a true 'bad beat', and you probably won't see this one on Scott Van Pelt, but it hurt just the same if you had the under. It looked great all night, with a total of just 27 points on the board with 5:56 to go in the third quarter.

-- In that NIU-Vandy game, with the Huskies down 24-10, the visitors scored a touchdown to make it 24-16, still not covering as 6.5-point underdogs. Much to the delight of side bettors of Northern Illinois, the coach elected to go for two - and got it. If you were laying the 6.5 with Vandy, you likely said a lot of bad words. Still, there was just under 12 minutes to change the result, but that was the final score of the game. Maybe it's not technically a bad beat, but it is a curious decision by the NIU coach at the least, and deserves honorable mention.

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big weekend of the college football season to close September.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Memphis (-11) 35, Navy 23: Navy wound up a with a pronounced production edge Thursday night against Memphis and the Midshipmen led 20-7 about halfway through the second quarter. Memphis returned the next kickoff 99 yards to get within six by halftime and in the third quarter the Tigers added 14 points including a 73-yard strike to put Memphis up 28-20. Navy added a field goal early in the fourth to boost the chances for the underdog but Memphis answered quickly to reach its greatest lead of the game up by 12. Navy had two late possessions but wasn’t much of a threat to add points.

Air Force (-19½) 41, San Jose State 24: San Jose State scored on its opening drive looking to back up last week’s win over Arkansas. The Spartans were also stopped on downs in Air Force territory on the next two possessions as they had an opportunity for an even better start. Air Force scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions but had a costly fumble in the red zone just before halftime to lead by only 11 on spread that climbed upward Friday evening. Air Force scored 13 points five minutes into the second half helped by what turned into an accidental wind-aided on-side kick recovery to take a commanding 34-10 edge. After both teams botched scoring opportunities late in the third quarter a lengthy Air Force drive ended in a touchdown to put the Falcons up by 31 about halfway through the fourth quarter. With backup quarterback Nick Nash in the game, the Spartans connected for a 30-yard touchdown pass with fewer than four minutes remaining. Air Force then wound up going for it on 4th-and-short from its own 22 with a 24-point lead and fell short. Handed great field position, Nash put the Spartans into the end zone inside of two minutes to steal the underdog cover.

Arizona State (+4½) 24, California 17: After losing quarterback Chase Garbers just before halftime California managed to take a three-point lead early in the fourth quarter taking advantage of great field position after Jayden Daniels fumbled on a sack. Leaning on the running game Arizona State responded with a lengthy drive to get in front 21-17 with about five minutes to go. Cal failed going for it on 4th down on its next possession but Arizona State only added three to keep the game in play. Devon Modster and the Bears were not able to put together much on a late chance to keep its perfect season going, ultimately winding up with only 245 yards for the game.

Wisconsin (-23) 24, Northwestern 15: The heavy underdog Wildcats hung around vs. Wisconsin but a 68-yard interception return in the fourth quarter suddenly put Wisconsin up by 21 despite the game being just 7-3 late in the third quarter. Northwestern had a 3-and-out to hand the Badgers the ball back with a chance to get past the favorite spread but the punt wasn’t handled as the Wildcats managed to recover the muff and with good field position found the end zone to secure the underdog cover. Northwestern actually adding another touchdown later in the fourth and had a two-point conversion attempt to get back within seven that came up short. It was another cover for the Wildcats in the series, while actually out-gaining Wisconsin and featuring a 21-13 edge in 1st downs but with two Wisconsin defensive scores allowed.

Wake Forest (-4½) 27, Boston College 24: Wake Forest and Boston College were knotted at 17-17 at the break but Wake Forest added a late third quarter field goal and an early fourth quarter touchdown to lead by 10. In that stretch the Demon Deacons survived an interception with a 4th down stop on defense. Boston College climbed back in the game with a touchdown completed from running back David Bailey throwing to get within three and within the underdog spread with just over six minutes to go. Wake Forest used up significant clock on a 12-play drive but couldn’t run it all out as Boston College had a late chance, eventually reaching the midfield on the final play.

Western Michigan (-15½) 31, Central Michigan 15: The spread on this game dipped from as high as -17½ to just -15½ at some outlets by kickoff. With a 24-0 edge through three quarters it didn’t appear to matter but Central Michigan put up a fourth quarter fight with nine early points. A Western Michigan touchdown with about five minutes to go put the Broncos back past the number but the Chippewas quickly answered with a 34-yard strike to score. Down 16 Central Michigan went for two and came up empty in a critical play for those that waited to play the Saturday prices.

Toledo (+2½) 28, BYU 21: BYU broke a 14-14 tie with a touchdown on a short field following a muffed punt to lead by seven as a slight road favorite. Toledo would answer less than a minute into the fourth quarter to tie the game before the teams traded punts and then empty possessions with BYU stopped on downs and Toledo having a fumble at the BYU 20-yard-line. The momentum swung back quickly as BYU quarterback Zach Wilson was intercepted on 1st down with a return all the way down to the 2-yard-line. Toledo punched in the touchdown on the next play and the defense was able to hold off a drive to the Toledo 32 in the final seconds behind BYU back-up quarterback Jaren Hall after Wilson injured his hand on the decisive interception.

Vanderbilt (-7½) 24, Northern Illinois 18: The Commodores jumped out to a 14-0 lead only about six minutes into the game and that score held through halftime. Northern Illinois managed a field goal and a touchdown early in the second half but Vanderbilt seemed to put the game away with a 38-yard touchdown pass late in third quarter. Another score was on the way early in the fourth but in settling for a short field goal, Vanderbilt kept the door open for the underdog. Northern Illinois would score just two minutes later and down eight opted to go for two, successfully trimming the margin to six points in an unexpected play with huge ramifications relative to the spread that was commonly at 6½ before rising to 7½. The six-point margin held with neither side offering much of a scoring threat in the final 10 minutes.

Oklahoma (-27½) 55, Texas Tech 16: Oklahoma’s victory was never in doubt, but the heavy underdog Red Raiders rushed for nearly 200 yards and were in position to cover with the ball back down 32. A fumble near midfield sealed their fate with about nine minutes to go and the Red Raiders came up empty in two late drives that reached well into Oklahoma territory while Oklahoma added one more touchdown to win by 39.

Notre Dame (-10½) 35, Virginia 20: Virginia led 17-14 at halftime and had a significant production edge at that point. In the third quarter the Irish ran 11 plays and the only 1st down they picked up was via a penalty but they wound up with an 11-point lead thanks to three Virginia fumbles, one of which was returned to the two-yard-line and another was brought to the end zone for a defensive score. That margin was right in-between a spread that hit as high as +13 but dropped on game day down to as low as +10. Virginia had two interceptions in the fourth quarter looking to climb back in the game while Notre Dame broke a 30-yard run for a touchdown. Down 18 Virginia opted for a 27-yard field goal with six minutes to go that was of no help to the underdog supporters.

Washington (-12) 28, USC 14: Washington led by 10 at the half and by 14 through three quarters after Michael Pittman had a 44 touchdown to bring USC back in the game. Washington fumbled near midfield to hand USC an opportunity in the fourth quarter but an exchange of punts followed. USC looked likely to earn the underdog cover late reaching 1st-and-goal from the Washington 5-yard-line but the Trojans weren’t able to get in. On its final possession Matt Fink brought USC across midfield and pass interference converted a 4th-and-10 play. The next throw was intercepted however as the Huskies escaped still up 14 after a scoreless final frame.

UCF (-42½) 56, Connecticut 21: The Knights nearly eclipsed this massive spread by halftime with a 42-0 advantage and with nearly six minutes left in the third quarter it was 56-0. The Huskies would score late in the third quarter for the first time and then again in the fourth to get the margin back to 42 and within the hefty underdog number. On its next possession UCF fumbled at the UConn 21-yard-line and then with two minutes remaining the Knights went for it on 4th-and-9 rather than attempting a long field goal. A sack on that play gave the Huskies good field position and Steven Krajewski fired away, getting the Huskies into the end zone with 19 seconds to go to secure the underdog win.

Stanford (-3½) 31, Oregon State 28: Davis Mills led Stanford to an early 21-0 edge but Oregon State made a late charge getting to 21-14 early in the fourth quarter. Stanford would answer to lead by 14 with nine minutes remaining but the Beavers kept the momentum on offense with a six-play touchdown drive to get back within seven with seven minutes to go. Oregon State’s defense forced a 3-and-out and the Beavers went 77 yards to tie the game with fewer than two minutes remaining. It was however enough time for Mills and the Stanford offense thanks to a 43-yard kickoff return as the Cardinal gained 29 more yards and connected from 39 yards for the game-winning field goal, though for many, the Beavers still collected.

Appalachian State (-14½) 56, Coastal Carolina 37: After the big win over North Carolina, Appalachian State found itself in a back-and-forth game with a 21-21 tie late in the second quarter. The Mountaineers managed two touchdowns in the final two minutes before the break to suddenly lead by 14 however. Appalachian State scored first in the second half but by the start of the fourth quarter the 21-point edge had been shrunk to 12. An interception return touchdown put Appalachian State up by 19 and they added another touchdown on a short field with about four minutes remaining. A late Coastal Carolina touchdown wasn’t enough to get back within the number in a game that was much closer in the box score than the scoreboard suggests.

Liberty (-7½) 17, New Mexico 10: Liberty led 17-3 through three quarters and had a significant yardage edge. With a common number of -7 the line did hit -7½ by kickoff and late Flames backers had reason for worry. An interception bailed out Liberty following a missed field goal and the defense again got a big stop as New Mexico went for it on 4th-and-8 early in the fourth quarter. The Lobos would not be denied on their final possession however, converting a big third down with 53 seconds to go and then hitting the end zone with 43 seconds to go to climb within seven for the final margin.

UL-Monroe (-14½) 30, South Alabama 17: The Warhawks led by just seven heading into the fourth quarter but back-to-back touchdown drives pushed the margin to 20 points with about seven minutes to go. South Alabama would go 75 yards in the next four minutes however to get back within the number and UL-Monroe did not make a push to add points late.