NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 9

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

College Football Week 9 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-17
Against the Spread 31-26-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 36-22
Against the Spread 36-21-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-28-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 452-113
Against the Spread 287-267-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 381-180
Against the Spread 276-274-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 268-294-9

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Kansas State (+23.5, ML +1100) vs. Oklahoma, 48-41
Colorado State (+14, ML +450) at Fresno State, 41-31
Oklahoma State (+11, ML +320) at Iowa State, 34-27
Illinois (+9.5, ML +280) at Purdue, 24-6
Kentucky (+9.5, ML +300) vs. Missouri, 29-7
San Jose State (+9.5, ML +300) at Army, 34-29
Rutgers (+7.5, ML +260) vs. Liberty, 44-34

The largest favorites to cover
Clemson (-35) vs. Boston College, 59-7
Alabama (-32) vs. Arkansas, 48-7
Western Michigan (-27) vs. Bowling Green, 49-10
Northern Illinois (-22) vs. Akron, 49-9
Utah (-21) vs. California, 35-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- SMU stayed unbeaten with a 34-31 victory Thursday night at Houston. The Mustangs entered with a 7-0 record on the 'over', but this game officially pushed at most shops. They're still 8-0 SU, and they will face off against Memphis in a nationally-televised game on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET. ... The Tigers almost made ABC's decision look like a bad one, as Tulsa had them on the ropes. The Golden Hurricanes were set up for the short, game-winning field goal and the upset as 9.5-point underdogs. However, the kicked shanked it left and disaster was averted for Memphis. Tulsa is 2-6 SU this season, but they've had several near-misses, including their OT loss at SMU after carrying a big lead into the fourth quarter. While they're on a four-game skid, they're 3-1 ATS during the span with the 'over' 3-1. ... South Florida rolled to a 45-20 win at East Carolina, as the Bulls have turned things around after a 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS start. They're 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four, and now just two wins from bowl eligibility. The 'over' is 4-1-1 in the past six for USF, too.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- North Carolina held off rival Duke, getting an interception at the goal line in the final few seconds at Kenan. Officially the 20-17 decision was a push at most shops (see below). ... Miami-Florida picked up the road win at Pittsburgh by a 16-12, keeping Coastal chaos alive and well. The Hurricanes were without their leading rusher RB Deejay Dallas, and QB N'Kosi Perry wasn't close to 100 percent, but they got the win. Miami is 4-4 SU/ATS and the 'over/under' is 4-4. In other words, they're one of the hardest teams to figure. ... Virginia opened the season with a 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS record, but they are just 1-3 SU over their past four and 1-4 ATS across the past five outings. Louisville topped them 28-21, keeping the Cavaliers from attaining bowl eligibilty. The Cardinals are now 5-3 SU/ATS so far. ... Remember when everyone thought Clemson was done, or not one of the best teams in the country? They spanked Boston College by a 59-7 score, covering the largest spread in a BCS game this week, -35. The Tigers hit the 'over' themselves, too. Clemson has covered three in a row, and five of the past six.

BIG TEN

-- It was a sloppy day all over in the Big Ten, with torrentials rains in games in Ann Arbor, East Lansing and West Lafayette, among others. You have to love the fall and real football weather. Illinois continues to surprise, winning 24-6 on the road at Purdue, following up their surprising win over Wisconsin last week. The Illini are 4-4 SU, and they have covered three in a row. ... Minnesota posted the impressive 52-10 win over Maryland, improve to 8-0 SU for the first time since 1941. After starting out 0-2-1 ATS, the Golden Gophers have covered their past five in a row. All eyes are on their matchup with Penn State in two weeks. ... Speaking of the Nittany Lions, the battled the rain and slop, turning aside Michigan State by a 28-7 score. Surprisingly, this game nearly hit or at least pushed the total (42), but a scoreless fourth quarter splashed cold water on that, pun totally intended. ... Michigan annihilated rival Notre Dame in a driving rain for a good chunk of Saturday's game, winning 45-14. It is the last scheduled battle between these rivals until 2033. ... Last, but certainly not least, Ohio State steamrolled Wisconsin by a 38-7 count. The Badgers entered the day having yielded just 29 points in the first six games, but now they have allowed 62 total points in the past two weeks, losing consecutive games for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have won eight in a row to start, and they haven't allowed anyone to score more than two times in a single since the opener against FAU of all teams. Ohio State has covered seven in a row since that game against Lane Kiffin's Owls, too.

BIG 12

-- The Texas memes and snipes at Tom Herman were spreading like wildfire in the Twitterverse following their 37-27 loss at TCU. The Longhorns barely scraped by last week, and suddenly they're 5-3 SU and just 2-3 ATS over the past five outings. ... Texas Tech went to Kansas and lost in one of the strangest ways possible. In the closing seconds, Kansas lined up for the game-winning field goal. They had it blocked, and the Red Raiders attempted to return it. They subsequently fumbled, Kansas got the ball back with just :01 left on the clock, getting another chance at the field goal. They buried this time, and won 37-34 to move to 3-5 SU. Suddenly it's en vogue to back the Jayhawks, too, as they're a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three with the 'over' 5-1 in the past six. ... Oklahoma State posted a 34-27 win on the road as 11-point underdogs against Iowa State. The Cowboys slapped the brakes on a two-game skid, and 0-2 ATS run, improving to 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS. ... Of course, the big story of the day was the win by Kansas State over Oklahoma, 48-41. The Wildcats improved to 5-3 SU/ATS, and tossed a monkey wrench into the CFP picture, allowing plenty of teams to shoehorn back into the conversation.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic atoned for a loss last week by going to Old Dominion and throttling the Monarchs, 41-3. The Owls have now posted a 5-3 SU/ATS record, and they haven't failed to cover in back-to-back game this season. The Owls did lose their leading passer, QB Brian Robinson, and leading rusher, RB Malcolm Davidson, so that's something to watch going forward. ... Next up for FAU is a battle with Western Kentucky, a team which fell 26-23 at Marshall. Despite the loss, the Hilltoppers picked up their fifth consecutive cover. ... Middle Tennessee posted a surprising 50-17 victory against Florida International, snapping a three-game winning streak for the Golden Panthers.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Western Michigan topped Bowling Green by a 49-10 count, easily covering a 27-point number. Under bettors weren't happy with this result, though (see below). ... Kent State fell at home to Miami-Ohio by a 23-16 score, as the Redhawks have won and covered consecutive games this season, and they're also 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four. ... Akron was blasted yet again, falling 49-0 at Northern Illinois. The Zips are now 0-8 SU/ATS on the season, the only team in FBS yet to cover this season. ... Buffalo topped Central Michigan by a 43-20 count as the 'over' connected. The Bulls have covered three in a row, too. ... Eastern Michigan slipped in overtime at Toledo, 37-34. The Eagles are now just 1-4 ATS across the past five outings.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- San Diego State isn't wowing people with big offensive totals, but they keep on winning. They topped UNLV by a 20-17 score, moving to 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS with the 'under' also 7-1. ... San Jose State headed east and won another game on the road. They topped Arkansas earlier this season, and this weekend they stunned Army, 34-29. The Spartans are 4-4 SU this season, and an impressive 4-1-1 ATS over the past six outings. ... Air Force picked up a 31-7 win over Utah State, running the ball down their throats. The Falcons have won and covered a season-high three in a row heading into their non-conference rivalry game with Army next week. ... Hawaii returned to the mainland and oicked up the 45-31 victory in New Mexico. The Warriors improved to 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past three for Hawaii.

PAC-12

-- The best game of the day was easily the Washington State-Oregon battle in Eugene. It was a seesaw battle that lasted four hours and some change. Wazzu took a 35-34 lead with exactly one minute remaining, but QB Justin Herbert drove the Ducks down the field for the game-winning field goal as time expired, keeping the playoff hopes alive for the Ducks and the Pac-12. ... USC escaped with a 35-31 win at Colorado. The banged up Trojans earned the four-point win, their first on the road this season. They're also 1-3 ATS away from home. ... UCLA pulled off the 42-32 win over Arizona State, and they technically can still go to the conference title game if they win out. The Bruins have won and covered consecutive games for the first time this season, and the 'over' is 3-0 in the past three outings.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- LSU held off Auburn by a 23-20 score. The Tigers have a huge battle at Alabama on Nov. 9. ... Speaking of 'Bama, it was no Tua and no problem for the Crimson Tide. They topped lowly Arkansas by a 48-7 score even without star signal caller Tua Tagovailoa (ankle). The Tide are 8-0 SU, but just 4-4 ATS this season and they have yet to cover in consecutive outings. ... Kentucky surprised Missouri in Lexington by a 29-7 count. The Tigers were in first place in the SEC East at one point, but they have dropped two in a row and failed to cover the past three. ... Tennessee topped South Carolina by a 41-21 score, covering for the third consecutive outing. The Vols have had a disastrous season, but they're 3-5 SU and still technically alive for a bowl berth if they can win three of the final four against UAB, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia Southern topped New Mexico State 41-7, as total bettors were feeling some fourth-quarter pain in this one (see below). ... Georgia State managed an impressive 52-33 win over Troy, moving to 6-2 SU and 5-1-2 ATS. The Panthers are now bowl eligible, too. ... Appalachian State earned the 30-3 win at South Alabama, keeping their hopes alive for that New Year's Day bowl game. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for the Mountaineers, but they're four-game cover streak came to a close, just barely - by a half-point.

Bad Beats

-- Duke drove inside the 2-yard line and could have won outright. A trick play inside the 2-yard line in the final seconds was thwarted at the goal line, killing those holding a Blue Devils side ticket and a moneyline ticket.

-- New Mexico was trailing 45-17 with five minutes to go and a total of 71. They scored two touchdowns without a minute, closing to 45-31 and pushing the total over.

-- New Mexico State was down 41-7 through three quarters wit ha total of 53.5. That's exactly how the game ended, so if you had an over ticket it's not necessarily a bad beat as it is bad luck, but anyway...this happened twice on the day.

-- In the MAC, Western Michigan was up 49-10 through three quarters with a total of 65.5 in the game against Bowling Green. After a scoreless fourth quarter, that's how things ended, too. Ugly.

4th Quarter Covers - Week 9
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the ninth big weekend of the college football season to close October.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Toledo (-2½) 37, Eastern Michigan 34: This MAC contest had major momentum swings going from 10-0 to 10-10 by halftime before Toledo scored three touchdowns in the first six minutes of the third quarter to lead 31-10. Eastern Michigan would take over the game with three consecutive touchdowns, the third of which tied the game with 2:35 to go. Toledo fumbled deep in its own territory on the next possession to seemingly hand the Eagles the game but the Eagles would miss a 33-yard field goal. Going first in overtime Eastern Michigan would settle for another field goal and made it but on a 3rd-and-10 Toledo would find the end zone for the win and narrow cover.

Southern Miss (-10) 20, Rice 6: Rice got on the board with a touchdown with six minutes to go in the third quarter to trail by only seven after missing the PAT. The Owls wound up with only 139 yards in the game but were in position to cover with Southern Miss missing a field goal in the fourth that would have put the Golden Eagles up by 10. Looking to run the clock out Southern Miss converted a 3rd down near midfield and Rice called timeout with 1:24 remaining. The Owls got a stop on 1st down but on 2nd down Kevin Perkins broke through for 38 yards and a touchdown, slipping past the spread with 32 seconds to go.

Hawai’i (-10) 45, New Mexico 31: The outcome in Albuquerque was not in doubt for long with a 35-3 halftime lead for the Warriors. New Mexico broke a 67-yard run in the third quarter to find the end zone but Hawai’i added 10 more points to lead 45-10 with nine minutes remaining. New Mexico would score three consecutive touchdowns to become a late backdoor cover threat and they had the ball back with more than three minutes to go. The offense moved the ball and had a new set of downs at the Hawai’i 28-yard-line with a score looking inevitable, but an interception would save Warriors backers with 2:25 to go.

Marshall (-3½) 26, Western Kentucky 23: The line on this game fell throughout the week but Marshall took command early up 23-7 with a field goal midway through the third quarter. Western Kentucky would score near the end of the third to climb within 10 but missed on the PAT. The Hilltoppers quickly were a threat to score again but settled for a short field goal from 1st-and-goal. Up seven Marshall stalled near midfield and had to punt and Ty Storey led Western Kentucky quickly down the field, tying the game at the 6:19 mark. After an exchange of punts, overtime looked likely as a dormant Marshall offense had just over a minute to work with but the Herd inched their way down the field going 51 yards in 10 plays to have a late shot, with kicker Justin Rohrwasser winning the game after an icing attempt by hitting from 53 yards, though those on the favorite were hoping for overtime.

Appalachian State (-28) 30, South Alabama 3: The Mountaineers couldn’t have been much more in control of this game but through three quarters the lead was just 23-0 on a spread that was as low as -24½ early in the week and climbed to close at -28. With just over five minutes remaining South Alabama would hit a field goal to avoid the shutout and seemingly secure the underdog cover but about a minute later Appalachian State broke a 67-yard touchdown run to get there for early week wagers on the Mountaineers.

North Carolina (-3) 20, Duke 17: North Carolina led 14-3 early in the third quarter after a four-play touchdown drive out of halftime. Duke scored two touchdowns in 20 seconds of game clock in the middle of the third aided by an interception to suddenly take the lead. The eventful third quarter continued with a tying field goal from the Tar Heels before a run of five consecutive punts with only one combined first down. North Carolina would go in front with a 40-yard field goal at the 7:00 minute mark, right even with the closing spread though much of the week UNC was at -3½. Duke couldn’t answer and it appeared the Tar Heels would put the game away after they converted a 4th down in the red zone and had 1st-and-goal. On the next play a fumble was recovered by Duke and Quentin Harris would lead an epic late drive that included two fourth downs. Duke eventually had 1st-and-goal at the 3 in the final minute and inched closer with a pass interference call. The clock wound down to just 18 seconds before an inexplicable trick play went horribly wrong for Duke as after a handoff Deon Jackson leaped into the air and attempted a pass that went right to a pair of Tar Heel defenders, intercepted by former quarterback Chazz Surratt.

Navy (-5) 41, Tulane 38: Navy stormed out to a 24-0 lead and still led 31-14 at halftime. Tulane made some adjustments and benefited from good field position to add two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in the game, trailing by only three. With 10 minutes to go Tulane tied the game with a field goal with Navy held to nine net yards on its first three second half drives. The Midshipmen made a bold decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 34 and got it and then converted another 4th-and-1 a few plays later still on their own side of the 50. Two plays later Navy was in the end zone and back up by seven with about five minutes remaining. Tulane converted its own 4th down on a 12-play 77-yard drive to tie the game with about a minute to go. Not known for big plays or quick scores Navy was able to get into field goal range and Bijan Nichols was good from 48 for the win, though Tulane held the underdog cover.

Miami, FL (+4½) 16, Pittsburgh 12: The Panthers had a severe production edge in this game but had three turnovers and settled for three field goals as Miami led 10-9 through three quarters with Miami’s scoring drives coming on 30 and 17 yards respectively. Pittsburgh was in position to take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but back-to-back penalties pushed the Panthers from the 1-yard-line to the 11 and they kicked the field goal to go up by just two. Getting the ball back with fewer than four minutes remaining a Miami offense that had produced 154 net yards in the game didn’t seem like a great threat for a game-winning drive but a 4th down was converted near midfield and Jarren Williams hit K.J. Osborn for a 32-yard touchdown with 58 seconds to go.

Charlotte (+3½) 39, North Texas 38: The Mean Green led by 14 entering the fourth quarter but Charlotte would hit a big play to climb within eight and failed going for two. The 49ers would block a North Texas field goal attempt with just over six minutes to go to stay in the game and they quickly added another touchdown but again were unable to come up with the conversion. On its next drive North Texas kicker Ethan Mooney hit from 51 to push the lead to five with just over a minute remaining, a huge kick for those involved on the spread. It wound up not mattering however as Charlotte’s offense again wouldn’t be stopped, going the distance and finding the end zone with 18 seconds to go for the win.

LSU (-12½) 23, Auburn 20: LSU led just 16-13 through three quarters despite a substantial production edge, missing a few opportunities to get ahead further in the third quarter. An 11-play drive that was completed early in the fourth quarter put LSU up by 10 before six consecutive punts as LSU was unable to pull away. Auburn would add a late touchdown for get within three despite a 508-287 yardage edge for LSU.

Memphis (-9½) 42, Tulsa 41: Memphis led 14-0 quickly in this game and still was ahead 35-24 late in the third quarter. Tulsa would rally however with a touchdown late in the third, a quick Memphis punt, and a 14-play, 85-yard touchdown drive that put the Hurricane in front. Memphis would fumble to hand the ball right back but Tulsa had to settle for a field goal to lead by six. A nice kickoff return put the Tigers in good field position and three plays later Memphis was back in front by one. Tulsa delivered a great final drive but kicker Jacob Rainey missed from only 29 yards as the Tigers escaped to set-up next week’s big AAC West showdown with SMU.

Kansas (+6½) 37, Texas Tech 34: Texas Tech led 27-14 late in the third quarter but Kansas would connect for a 65-yard touchdown, getting within seven after the PAT was blocked. The Jayhawks hit another big play in the fourth quarter with a 70-yard pass play to tie the game. Texas Tech answered just a few plays later with a long strike of its own to go back up by seven, just past the common spread. After a pair of punts Kansas delivered a 10-play touchdown drive to tie the game with about five minutes to go and the Jayhawks would force a quick punt on defense. Carter Stanley led an effective drive that chewed up the remaining time and Kansas lined up for a field goal with 13 seconds to go. The kick was blocked and recovered by Texas Tech but fumbled back to Kansas on an ill-advised lateral attempt. Two seconds remained on the clock and with the change of possession it was first down and Kansas kicked in the game-winner on the retry.