Big Time Rivalries
By Judd Hall
The Saturday before Thanksgiving in college football has been set aside for some of the biggest rivalries. Television ratings and other factors have helped split the slate of heated matchups until the Saturday after Turkey Day, but there are still some worth seeing this weekend. We’ll start our day in Ann Arbor for one of the best rivalries in all of sport (even if it has lost its luster). Then we’ll go to Palo Alto to see if the band will be out on the field before the game is over.
Ohio State at Michigan
The game between the Buckeyes and Wolverines has decided who would win the Big Ten championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl. This year, however, one team is just hoping to make itself bowl eligible with an upset this weekend.
Ohio State (9-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) clinched a share of its fifth straight conference championship and first trip to Pasadena since 1997 after beating the Hawkeyes 27-24 in overtime last Saturday as 11½-point home favorites.
The Buckeyes let Iowa rack up 233 yards through the air with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first ever start. That’s quite uncharacteristic of a defense that is allowing only 174.6 passing yards per game this year to rank 16th in the nation.
The Bucks were actually up 24-10 in the fourth quarter after Brandon Saine ran for a 49-yard score. After that, Ohio State ran the ball 11 more times for a total of 28 yards and two first downs. Anytime you have problems running out the clock with your ground attack, you’re going to let a team make a comeback.
Michigan (5-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) comes into this game trying to just make it to a lower-tier bowl game and maybe, just maybe, save Rich Rodriguez’s job in the process. The Wolverines looked like they would be a nice surprise in the Big Ten after picking up a last second win over Indiana home to start conference play on Sept. 26. Unfortunately for fans, that was the last time the Maize and Blue defeated an FBS-level team. Unfortunately for bettors, Michigan hasn’t covered a spread since losing 30-28 versus the Hawkeyes as e 8½-point road pups on Oct. 10.
The betting shops aren’t expecting the Wolverines to be a factor on Saturday afternoon by making Ohio State a 12-point road “chalk” with a total of 47 ½. You can take Michigan for the big upset and a hefty plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350).
It’s surprising to see Ohio State listed as such a big favorite in Ann Arbor. Yet betED’s sportsbook manager, Randy Scott, believes the line is where it should be. “I know that the Buckeyes playing down to the level of competition, but how we are approaching this one is when it comes to rivalries; teams will play to run up the score on each other. Scott continues, “Conservative play calling is put on the shelf, to win is expected, to blow it out is the mission. It's like that in all big time rivalries, teams just don't want to settle for a win, so you can expect Ohio State to run the score up at the slightest opportunity. That's what this line reflects; it's up to the bettors to decide whether that will happen or not. Tough call, but we also know Ohio State can make this spread look tiny if they can execute their game plan.”
There is some validity to that idea as the Buckeyes are 7-1 SU since Jim Tressel became head coach in 2001. Gamblers have enjoyed backing the Scarlet and Gray in this contest as well with them going 6-2 ATS. The ‘over’ has gone on a 5-1 run in the last six meetings.
From my findings, Michigan has never been a double-digit home underdog. As just home pups since 1998 though, the Wolverines are 4-4 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four games under this scenario.
California at Stanford
This game has been heated one for a long time. Hell, who hasn’t seen the video of the band out on the field for “The Play” back in 1982? This year’s edition of the rivalry was supposed to be a good one, but there is a little bit more on the line for one of the teams.
Stanford (7-3 SU, ATS) has been garnering a lot of national spotlight after its last two games this season. The Cardinal have racked up 106 points against Oregon and Southern Cal recently. A big part of that success has been their darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate, Toby Gerhart. The senior running back has been a beast over the last two weeks, gaining 401 yards and six touchdowns on 67 carries. He currently ranks third amongst all rushers in the nation with 1,395 yards on the ground and second overall with 19 scores.
The Cardinal now stand at 6-2 in the Pac-10 race, just a half-game behind Oregon. Stanford needs the Ducks to fall to Arizona this weekend and beat the Beavers to close out the year. The reason being for that is Oregon State knocked off Jim Harbaugh’s team in Corvallis on Oct. 10 as a two-point home pup, 38-28. That win gives the Beavers the tiebreaker over the Cardinal to get the Pac-10’s automatic BCS bid to the Rose Bowl should they end up tied for first place.
California (7-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) will be doing its best to put a kibosh on its hated rival’s dreams of Pasadena without its best player, Jahvid Best. The talented running back is missing his second straight game after suffering a concussion early in the Golden Bears’ 31-14 home setback to Oregon State on Nov. 7.
The Golden Bears certainly didn’t miss Best last Saturday in their 24-16 win over Arizona as 2 ½-point home favorites. Shane Vereen ran the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a score in that game. However, he was just converted one of the four third-down plays that he was handed the ball on last week. It remains to be seen as to how Vereen will succeed a defense that ranks 73rd on third down (39.8 percent) and 57th against the run (138.5 YPG).
Most sportsbooks have posted the Cardinal as seven-point home faves with the total rolling in at 65. You can take Cal to win the game outright at plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).
That line has been greatly affected by Best not being in the lineup. Randy Scott elaborates, “Best was a preseason Heisman Trophy contender, it's a huge loss for Cal. He's worth at least a Touchdown. If he was playing that line would be closer to a pick, with Stanford getting slight home field odds.”
California has controlled this series in recent history with a 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS mark since the 2002 meeting.
The Bears haven’t been successful as road ‘dogs in conference play since 2004, going 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS. The ‘under’ is 6-1 during that stretch. Stanford, on the other hand, is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS when listed as a home “chalk” versus Pac-10 opponents in the last five years. The ‘under’ has gone an impressive 5-1 as well.
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