NCAAF Bowl Game News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 12/28/19

Camping World Bowl, Orlando
Iowa State is 7-5, with three losses by 1 or 2 points, losing by point at both Baylor/Oklahoma. Under Campbell, Cyclones are 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog, 2-0 TY- they were held under 100 RY in four of their five losses. Cyclones are 2-3 in last five bowls, with both wins by a point; underdogs were 4-0 ATS in those games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Notre Dame won its last five games since a 45-14 loss at Michigan; they’re +8 in turnovers their last three games. Irish covered their last five games as a single digit favorite, 2-0 TY. ND won three of last five bowls; this is first time in five years the Irish are favored in a bowl. Favorites won/covered this bowl the last three years; average total in this game the last five years: 54.2.

Cotton Bowl, Arlington, TX
Memphis won its last seven games, had a great 12-1 year, but their coach already bolted to Florida State- they beat Ole Miss 15-10 in only Power 5 game TY. Tigers scored 34+ points in 10 of their last 12 games. Tigers lost their last four bowls, losing last two by total of four points; they’re 18-12-2 ATS in last 32 games as an underdog, 0-0 TY. Penn State split its last four games after an 8-0 start, giving up 430.8 ypg, including 383 to Rutgers; PSU is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nittany Lions lost three of last four bowls; average total in their last five bowls: 63.4. Favorites covered Cotton Bowl six of last eight years, with average total of 35.5 last four years.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta
Oklahoma is 58-9 SU last five years, but 1-4 in bowls, giving up 37+ points in all four losses; they were a double digit favorite in every game TY, until now. OU’s best pass rusher got suspended; his backup is hurt. Since 2012, Sooners are 5-2 ATS as an underdog; over last 11 years, they’re 3-1 as a double digit dog. Sooners’ last four games went under. LSU is 13-0, with two wins by less than 14 points; 45-38 (-6) over Texas, 46-41 (+5.5) over Alabama; they never beat Crimson Tide when Hurts played there. Burrow won Heisman; there have been distractions. Tigers are 5-3-1 ATS as a double digit favorite TY. LSU won/covered three of its last four bowls, scoring 35.5 ppg. Underdogs won three of last four Fiesta Bowls SU; average total in last five, 61.2.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Clemson won national title two of last three years, beating Ohio State 31-0 in semis three years ago (Buckeyes’ only loss in last five bowls); Tigers won four of last five bowls, scoring 30+ in all four wins. Clemson is 13-0 TY, covering seven of eight games after a 21-20 escape over UNC, when Tar Heels went for 2-point conversion with 1:17 left, instead of tying PAT. Tigers were favored by 24+ points 12 times TY, by 16 in the other game; they threw ball for 344.8 ypg in last four games. Buckeyes won every game TY by 11+ points, with closest win 28-17 over Penn State. Over last 11 years, Ohio State is 10-1 ATS when getting points. Favorites won/covered three of last four Fiesta Bowls; average total in last five, 51.

LSU vs. Oklahoma
Brian Edwards

LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Venue: at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 4:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -13.5, Over/Under 76

Before making it to Atlanta for its Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl showdown against Louisiana State in the College Football Playoff semifinals, No. 4 Oklahoma lost four key players that’ll be missed against the unbeaten and top-ranked Tigers.

First, SoonerScoop.com reported that three players were suspended on Dec. 18. At his first media event in Atlanta on Dec. 23, OU head coach Lincoln Riley confirmed the suspensions but refused to elaborate on the reasoning behind those players being ‘out’ vs LSU.

The trio of suspended players includes DE Ronnie Perkins, second-string RB Rhamondre Stevenson and backup freshman WR Trejan Bridges. Perkins, a sophomore who has played in all 13 games, has recorded 28 solo tackles, 10 assists, 7.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, six QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Stevenson has appeared in all 13 OU games. The junior RB has 515 rushing yards, six TDs and an 8.1 yards-per-carry average. Bridges is a five-star recruit who didn’t figure to play much vs. LSU anyway. The true freshman has only seven catches for 82 yards.

Making matters worse, SoonerScoop reported on Dec. 20 that starting sophomore safety Delarrin Turner-Yell suffered a broken collarbone at practice. Three days later, Riley confirmed the injury and said, “Right now our expectation is that [Turner-Yell] will not play, but we’ll how see the week goes.”

LSU (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) dominated Georgia 37-10 to win the SEC Championship Game, easily cashing tickets as a seven-point favorite. Joe Burrow, who won the Heisman Trophy a week later, completed 28-of-38 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.

Justin Jefferson had seven receptions for 115 yards and one TD, while Terrace Marshall Jr. hauled in five catches for 89 yards and two TDs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 57 rushing yards on 15 attempts, in addition to catching seven balls for 61 receiving yards.

LSU darted out to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, hooking up its backers on first-quarter bets as a 3.5-point ‘chalk.’

UGA’s Rodrigo Blankenship briefly stopped the bleeding with a 39-yard field goal to get the Bulldogs on the board, but Cade York extended the Tigers’ lead to 17-3 with a 41-yard FG with 2:22 left until halftime.

York added a 28-yarder early in the third quarter for a 20-3 LSU lead. Then Burrow found Marshall for a four-yard scoring strike with 2:18 left in the third. The Tigers added an eight-yard TD pass from Burrow to Jefferson to make it 34-3, and the blowout was on before the fourth quarter started.

LSU freshman CB Derek Stingley intercepted Georgia QB Jake Fromm twice and had five tackles.

Edwards-Helaire is ‘questionable’ vs. LSU due to a hamstring injury suffered at practice earlier this month, although head coach Ed Orgeron stated Friday that he “believes he’ll play.” Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He leads the SEC in all-purpose yards with 1,903.

As of early Friday, most books had LSU listed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 76. The Sooners were +425 on the money line. For first half-wagers, the Tigers were favored by 7.5 points.

Back on Dec. 8., the Westgate SuperBook opened LSU as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 76.5. The total dipped as low as 75.5 points about a week ago, before inching back up to 76. The Tigers have bounced around in the -13 to -14 range over the last several weeks.

Orgeron’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in its 10 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The Tigers have won 10 of their 13 games by margins of 14 points or more. They won 45-38 at Texas, 46-41 at Alabama and 23-20 vs. Auburn in Baton Rouge.

Although those three final scores were the closest games LSU played, Florida probably gave the Tigers their toughest test in Redstick on Oct. 12. When LSU scored each of its three first-half TDs, the Gators answered each one with a TD drive of their own.

With the game tied 21-21 at halftime, Florida took the opening kick of the second half and promptly marched down the field and took the lead. Kyle Trask hit Van Jefferson for a two-yard TD pass and a 28-21 advantage.

Edwards-Helaire scored on a five-yard TD run to get LSU back even. After getting a stop, the Tigers went back in front 35-28 on a 33-yard TD run from Tyrion Davis-Prince with 3:15 left in the third stanza.

After UF came up empty on a red-zone trip when Stingley intercepted Trask in the end zone, LSU went up 42-28 on Burrow’s 54-yard TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase. The final score was 42-28 after the Gators came up short of the end zone on a fourth-and-goal play from LSU’s one with less than two minutes remaining.

LSU posted other wins over bowl-bound teams, winning 55-7 vs. Georgia Southern, 36-13 at Mississippi State, 42-6 vs. Utah State and 50-17 vs. Texas A&M.

Burrow produced monster numbers that led to run-away win in the voting for the Heisman. The grad transfer from Ohio State completed 77.9 percent of his passes for 4,715 yards with a 48/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He keeps plays alive with his elusiveness in the pocket, and he’s not hesitant to tuck it and run for first downs. Burrow was especially effective at doing that on several big plays in the second half at Alabama. He has 289 rushing yards and three TDs.

Chase has 73 receptions for 1,498 yards and 18 TDs despite missing one game injured. Jefferson has 88 catches for 1,207 yards and 14 TDs, while Marshall has 37 grabs for 545 yards and 10 TDs. Marshall missed three games with a broken bone in his foot sustained in a 66-38 win at Vanderbilt on Sept. 21.

LSU leads the nation in total offense, is second in passing yards and third in scoring with its 47.8 points-per-game average.

Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) is facing an SEC opponent in the CFP semifinals for the third straight season. After coming up short to Georgia in a 54-48 double-overtime thriller at the 2017 Rose Bowl, the Sooners lost 45-34 to Alabama at last year’s Orange Bowl. However, they covered the spread in backdoor fashion as 13.5-point underdogs.

Lincoln Riley’s team is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump, but that factoid has zero relevance since the Sooners are underdogs for the first time this season. During Riley’s three-year tenure, Oklahoma has compiled a 3-1 spread record and collected a pair of outright wins in four games as an underdog.

This is only the second time on Riley’s watch that OU has been a double-digit underdog. As previously noted, the Sooners took the money vs. ‘Bama last year.

Oklahoma won its first five games by margins of 18 points or more. The Sooners improved to 7-0 with wins vs. Texas (34-27) and vs. West Virginia (52-14). They went into Kansas State as a 23.5-point road favorite and found itself down 48-23 after the Wildcats scored on a two-yard TD run by James Gilbert with 12:54 remaining.

OU wouldn’t quit, though. Twenty-two seconds later, Jalen Hurts found CeeDee Lamb for a 70-yard scoring strike. Then with 5:36 remaining, a one-yard TD run from Hurts, in addition to a three-yard pass to Lamb for a two-point conversion, trimmed the deficit to 48-38. The Sooners made it a one-possession game when Gabe Brkic buried a 39-yard field goal with 1:45 left.

OU initially seemed to be in business when it recovered the ensuing onside kick, but replay reviews showed that a Sooner had touched the ball before it had gone 10 yards. Therefore, K-State ran out the clock and captured a 48-41 upset victory.

With one loss, Riley’s bunch remained in the hunt for a CFP berth, albeit with zero room for error. Therefore, Oklahoma fans had to deal with a lot of anxiety when four of its next five games were of the one-possession variety.

After an open date following the loss at Kansas State, OU won a 42-41 decision over Iowa State as a 14-point home favorite. Next, Riley’s team went to Waco to face undefeated Baylor as an 11-point road ‘chalk.’

The Bears raced out to a 31-10 halftime lead. Oklahoma pulled to within 31-17 on Hurts’s three-yard TD pass to Austin Stogner midway through the third quarter. With 12:58 remaining in the final stanza, Hurts found Theo Wease for a 19-yard scoring connection. Hurts’s fourth TD pass and third of the second half was a two-yard scoring strike to Brayden Willis with 5:25 left to tie the game at 31-31.

Oklahoma escaped unscathed with a 34-31 win when Brkic’s 31-yard field goal was true with 1:45 remaining.

Back in Norman the following week, Oklahoma raced out to a 21-0 lead on TCU. The Horned Frogs wouldn’t go away, though, scoring 10 unanswered point to slice the deficit to 11 by halftime. Then with 10:15 left in the third, TCU got to within 21-17. After Hurts scored on an eight-yard TD run, the Sooners were in front by 11 points.

On the verge of putting the game on ice early in the fourth, Hurts was intercepted for a 98-yard pick-six. With the Frogs trailing by just four points, OU’s defense didn’t allow them to get any closer over the final 12 minutes, holding on for a 28-24 triumph.

Many felt OU would get a tough test in Stillwater in its regular-season finale, but that didn’t happen. The Sooners controlled the second half and pulled away for a 34-16 win at Oklahoma State. They covered the rich spread, too, as 14-point road ‘chalk.’

Going into Championship Weekend earlier this month, Oklahoma needed Oregon to beat Utah and LSU to take care of UGA. Obviously, it had to take care of its own business with a rematch vs. Baylor at Jerry World in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Riley’s team took a 10-0 first-quarter lead thanks to a six-yard TD run from Kennedy Brooks and a 44-yard FG from Brkic. Baylor owned the second quarter, however, despite losing starting QB Charlie Brewer to a concussion. The Bears took a 13-10 advantage into intermission.

A pair of 24-yard FGs from Brkic and an 18-yard TD pass from Hurts to Nick Basquine put Oklahoma ahead 23-13 with 10:31 left. At this point, another QB injury had Baylor using third-string signal caller Jacob Zeno, a true freshman who had only appeared in one game previously and is being redshirted.

With 9:41 remaining, Zeno found Trestan Ebner for an 81-yard TD pass to trim the deficit to three. When John Mayers hit a 27-yard FG with 3:25 left, Baylor was back even at 23-23. The game would go to overtime.

In the first extra session, Stevenson found paydirt on a five-yard TD run. Then the Oklahoma defense got a stop to conserve a 30-23 victory and give the Sooners the No. 4 slot in the CFP.

For the season, Hurts has connected on 71.8 percent of his throws for 3,632 yards with a 32/7 TD-INT ratio. He paces the Sooners with 1,255 rushing yards and 18 TDs, averaging 5.7 YPC. Hurts was one of four finalists for the Heisman.

Hurts’s collegiate career has been legendary. He led Alabama to the CFP finals as a freshman and a sophomore, scoring the go-ahead TD on a run at crunch time vs. Clemson as a freshman, only to see Deshaun Watson throw a game-winning TD pass with two seconds remaining just moments later.

Then as a sophomore, Hurts was yanked to start the third quarter of the CFP finals against Georgia in Atlanta. He didn’t pout and played the role of the ultimate teammate as Tua Tagovailoa led the Crimson Tide to a 26-23 comeback win over UGA in overtime. As a junior in 2018, Hurts was relegated to Tagovailoa’s backup, but he continued to be a great teammate and was ready when his number was called at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

When Tagovailoa was injured late in the third quarter, Hurts was the catalyst in leading Alabama back from a 14-point deficit to beat UGA 35-28. That propelled the Tide to another CFP berth, but they lost 44-16 to Clemson in the finals. Atlanta was the venue where he lost his job in January of 2018, and it was the place of his resurrection of sorts 11 months later. Therefore, it’s only fitting that his fourth career appearance in the CFP comes against an SEC foe in a familiar city, The ATL.

For his career, Hurts has a 65.6 completion percentage, 9,260 passing yards and an 80/19 TD-INT ratio. He has 3,231 rushing yards and 41 TDs, in addition to five receptions for 40 yards and one TD.

Lamb is his favorite target, hauling in 57 receptions for 1,206 yards and 14 TDs. Chareston Rambo has 42 catches for 734 yards and five TDs.

Brooks has 976 rushing yards, five TDs and a 6.7 YPC average. He suffered a head injury vs. Baylor earlier this month, but he’s good to go vs. LSU and will have to carry the load on the ground.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for the Sooners to improve to 7-5-1 overall. This is OU’s fourth-highest total of the year and its highest since an Oct. 12 win over Texas. When Oklahoma topped the Longhorns 34-27, the 61 combined points dropped way below the 77.5-point tally. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) when the Sooners have had totals in the 70s. In its season opener, OU had its highest total in a 49-31 win over Houston that saw the 80 combined points push to the 80-point number.

The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for LSU, but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. This is the highest total the Tigers have seen in 2019. The previous high was 72 points in a home game vs. Utah State, which ended up being their third-lowest combined score. LSU beat the Aggies 42-6, with the 48 combined points falling ‘under’ the 72-point tally.

Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. ET.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- Mississippi State starting QB Garrett Shrader is ‘out’ of the Music City Bowl vs. Louisville due to an eye injury. According to multiple reports, Shrader and junior LB Willie Gay were involved in an altercation that caused the injury. Further testing on Shrader’s eye revealed damage to his orbital bone, although he isn’t expected to need surgery. Nevertheless, he’s ‘out’ against the Cardinals and senior QB Tommy Stevens will get the starting nod. The Bulldogs are favored by four points at most books. Gay, who was suspended for eight regular-season games due to an academic issue, is expected to play.

-- Justin Wilcox announced on Dec. 23 that nine California players won’t play vs. Illinois in the Redbox Bowl. Three of those players are starters and a fourth was going to start against the Fighting Illini. Fifth-year senior safety Ashtyn Davis is ‘out’ after undergoing what Wilcox dubbed as “minor surgery.” In 11 games, Davis had 33 solo tackles, 24 assists, four passes broken up, two forced fumbles, two interceptions and one tackle for loss. Starting WR Jordan Duncan has been “excused” from the team to handle personal matters, according to Wilcox. Duncan is a two-year starter who has 25 receptions for 364 yards and two TDs. Junior LB Telvin Paul (28 tackles, three sacks) and safety Trey Turner III (32 tackles and four PBU) are the other starters who are ‘out.’ Illinois is dealing with a slew of injuries, too, most notably starting QB Brandon Peters and Butkus Award semifinalist Jake Hansen. The Golden Bears are favored by six or 6.5 points at most spots.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 7-1-1 run for Kansas State in its last nine games. The Wildcats face Navy with a total of 52 points.

-- Miami, Fl. fired OC Dan Enos today. Reports of his pending dismissal surfaced hours before yesterday’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, where La. Tech dealt out cream-cheese treatment to the Hurricanes in a 14-0 win as a seven-point underdog. The Bulldogs cashed money-line tickets in the +220 neighborhood.

-- Eastern Michigan improved to 24-5-2 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog in last night’s gut-wrenching loss to Pitt at the Quick Lane Bowl. The Eagles lost a 34-30 decision when Pitt took its first lead of the game on a TD with 47 ticks left. Nevertheless, the Eagles easily took the cash as 12-point underdogs. They fell to 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in bowl games during Chris Creighton’s tenure. EMU hasn’t won a bowl game since 1987.

-- Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman has hired FSU’s Kendal Briles as the Razorbacks’ next offensive coordinator. That’s two quality coordinator hires for Pittman, who also scored former Missouri HC Barry Odom as his new DC.

-- Reports out of Gainesville indicate that Florida Gators star DE Jabari Zuniga has been practicing and will play vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Since Zuniga suffered a severe ankle sprain at Kentucky in Week 3, he’s tried to make comebacks in key games at LSU vs. UGA, only to suffer setbacks each time. When healthy, Zuniga is one of the nation’s top pass rushers.

-- Florida, a 14 or 14.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. UVA, is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

Clemson vs. Ohio State
Joe Nelson

Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Clemson and Ohio State meet in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl in a pairing of undefeated teams for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both teams are far from home in Glendale but both programs have College Football Playoff Championships in the five years of the existence of the playoff format and this is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the bowl season as dominant 13-0 programs face off.

Venue: At State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Clemson -2, Over/Under 63
Last Meeting: 12/31/2016 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinals Clemson (+1) 31, Ohio State 0

Three seasons ago these teams met in this same stadium in the 2/3 matchup of College Football Playoffs. The spread was nearly even and Clemson delivered a blowout win 31-0 with a huge production edge of 470-215. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett had a pair of interceptions each but the Clemson running game had a clear edge while the Tigers were able to hit a few big plays in the air. Clemson would go on to beat Alabama in the championship game for the first of now two titles for Dabo Swinney.

Clemson also beat Ohio State in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl a year before the playoff format and Clemson enters this game on a 29-game winning streak, completing a perfect 15-0 championship season last year and this year again unblemished with only one close call back in late September in Chapel Hill with a one-point escape.

The Tigers didn’t look like a dominant team early in the season as coming off brilliant championship performance last season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled interceptions early in the season. The Tigers closed the season on a dominant run with Lawrence combining for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in the final five games of the season. 1,500-yard rusher Travis Etienne has often been overlooked despite an amazing 8.2 yards per carry average this season as the Tigers scored 605 points this season for more than 46 points per game.

Clemson is the #3 seed however having played through a light ACC schedule and high-quality wins are absent from the schedule with the best results coming over 7-5 Texas A&M, 9-4 Virginia, 8-4 Wake Forest, 7-5 Louisville, and 6-6 North Carolina. The Tigers did technically beat seven bowl teams when you add Charlotte and Boston College to the mix but behind Clemson it was a clear down year for the ACC. The Tigers beat two SEC teams but Texas A&M and South Carolina both had disappointing seasons and like many ACC teams, Clemson also played a FCS foe to pad the numbers.

Swinney is 9-5 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in his bowl and playoff games but after starting 1-3 both SU and ATS, the Tigers have been on a roll in the postseason under his watch with the only ATS loss in that span being the 2017-18 Sugar Bowl vs. the eventual national champion Alabama. Clemson has actually been an underdog in nine of the past 10 postseason games with the lone exception last season’s 30-3 win over undefeated Notre Dame in the semifinals.

In contrast to Swinney’s amazing resume, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be a head coach for the first time in a postseason game. Day filled in for Urban Meyer for three wins early last season and is now 16-0 as a head coach for the Buckeyes for an amazing start to his career. Day has only been with the program since 2017 as an assistant with past experience in the NFL as well as with Temple and Boston College. Despite his success, his first season will ultimately be judged on this game alone with the Buckeyes back into the playoffs after narrowly missing out as Big Ten champions the past two seasons.

Controversially Ohio State was flipped from the #1 seed in the playoff rankings to the #2 seed, passed up by LSU following the respective Big Ten and SEC championship wins. LSU was more impressive vs. a higher rated foe on championship Saturday but Ohio State’s overall resume bested LSU’s in many of the counts that the selection committee values.

On championship Saturday four teams that Ohio State defeated in the regular season were playing in championship games as the Buckeyes wound up with nine wins over bowl teams. Ohio State was penalized for a poor first half vs. Wisconsin in Indianapolis as well as not getting as much credit for beating a highly regarded Wisconsin team twice compared to if they defeated two distinct similarly highly rated teams. Ultimately Ohio State has five wins over teams rated higher in the playoff rankings than Clemson’s best win over #24 Virginia, including four wins vs. the top 14.

Day was not the only new piece for the Buckeyes, led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields left Georgia last season after not getting a great opportunity behind Jake Fromm. In his first season as a starting quarterback he delivered an incredible campaign finishing third in the Heisman voting with an amazing line of 40 touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. J.K. Dobbins eclipsed 1,800 yards rushing and along with star defensive end Chase Young, that trio comprised half of the top six in the Heisman voting. Ohio State outscored foes 633-163 on the season with dominant numbers, though the defense allowed 17 or more points in each of the final four games following seven straight games allowing 14 or fewer points.

Ohio State has not been an underdog in the postseason since winning the initial College Football Playoff championship game 42-20 vs. Oregon in January 2015. The Buckeyes have been the Rose Bowl champion the past two seasons and this is the first playoff trip since the ugly loss in Glendale vs. Clemson.

Ohio State has been an underdog six times since the start of the 2012 season going 6-0 S/U and ATS including winning 62-39 vs. Michigan last season in the only instance getting points since the 2014-15 national championship. Clemson has rarely been in the small favorite role under Swinney going 4-5 S/U and 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 or fewer points, though all but one of those games was a regular season contest.

Clemson wound up 10-3 ATS this season including 10-2 ATS in FBS games, going 7-0 ATS in FBS games since October started for an incredible run, as a lot of folks fared well supporting the Tigers even at inflated prices including a 30-point spread in the ACC Championship. Ohio State wound up 9-4 ATS this season but lost ATS in three of the final four games including missing the spread in big games vs. Penn State and in the Big Ten championship after an 8-0 ATS run September to early November, with the Buckeyes also faring extremely well in first half numbers.

The victor of this game will head to New Orleans for the national championship in what could be a very hostile environment depending on the Peach Bowl outcome but either team will be a serious threat for the title as this semifinal figures to live up to the billing and hype as one of the best playoff pairings in the history of the format.

Saturday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Camping World Bowl (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

-- The independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) face off with the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla.

-- The FightIng Irish have a rich bowl history, but surprisingly they're 18-19 in their 37 bowl games overall, including an 18-14 loss against Florida State back on Dec. 29, 2011 in this very stadium in the then-named Champs Sports Bowl. They were also tossed aside 30-3 by Clemson is last season's Cotton Bowl in the first-round of the College Football playoffs.

-- The Cyclones of Iowa State do not have as great of a bowl record as Notre Dame. They didn't even play in their first bowl game, surprisingly, until 1971. They were 0-4 in the 70's, and they didn't break through for their first bowl victory until 2000 in the Insight.com Bowl against Pittsburgh, 37-29, behind QB Sage Rosenfels. That was one of just four wins in 14 bowl tries, including a loss last season in the Alamo Bowl against Washington State. This will be the second-ever trip to Florida during bowl season, with Iowa State losing 28-12 in the Hall of Fame Classic in 1978 against Texas A&M in Tampa.

-- Notre Dame had an extremely challenging schedule, and after 10 wins they likely were hoping to land in a more prestigious bowl with a better opponent. But this is a nice matchup for them, and with a chip on their shoulder they could be a dangerous opponent. Their only losses this season came at Georgia, 23-17 on Sept. 21, and at Michigan by a 45-14 count on Oct. 26. They have wins over bowl teams Louisville, Virginia, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy, and they enter on a five-game winning streak while covering the past four.

-- Iowa State was tripped up 27-17 at Kansas State in their rinale, and they dropped each of their past two true road games, including a 42-41 shootout loss at Oklahoma, a playoff team, on Nov. 9, in a highly entertaining game. They also suffered a setback against Oklahoma State at home, Iowa at home and on the road against Baylor. While they have five losses overall, three losses were by a total of four points, and all five setbacks were by a total of just 21 points. They'll fight right to the bitter end, and have the offensive firepower to stay in it.

-- The Fighting Irish ranked 45th in total offense with 431.3 yards per game, while posting 253.0 passing yards to check in 49th in the nation. They were also 46th in the country with 178.3 rushing yards per contest while ranking 13th with 37.1 points per contest. Defensively the Irish were stout, allowing just 325.6 total yards per outing to rank 21st, while ending up third with 163.7 passing yards per outing. If they fail anywhere, it's against the run, as they yielded 161.9 rushing yards per game, but they allowed just 18.7 points per outing to rank 14th.

-- The Cyclones ranked 20th with 459.0 total yards per game, while ranking ninth with 318.3 passing yards per outing. On the run they were just 96th, posting 140.7 yards per outing, while averaging 34.1 PPG to check in 26th. Defensively they were so-so, but in a pass-happy Big 12, their numbers were pretty good. They were 44th in total yards allowed at 362.2, while ranking 71st against the pass with 228.3 yards per game. On the ground, Iowa State allowed just 133.8 yards to rank 33rd, and they coughed up 25.3 PPG to rank 52nd.

-- Iowa State QB Brock Purdy rolled up 3,760 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he also ran for eight scores. Notre Dame's Ian Book can also sling it, posting 2,792 yards with 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions while running for 537 yards and four more touchdowns. With those two under center on both sides, we could have quite the aerial show.

-- The Fighting Irish have covered four in a row, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, too. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games, with that non-cover last season in the Cotton Bowl vs. Clemson.

-- The Cyclones are 19-6-1 ATS in the past 26 as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven non-conference games, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four neutral-site games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances in the month of December.

-- It's all under, all the time, for the Cyclones lately. The under is 21-10-2 in their past 33 games overall, and 6-2-1 in the past nine non-conference tilts. The under is 7-0-1 in their past eight neutral-site games, and 6-0-1 in the past seven bowl tilts. The under is also 4-0-1 in the past five in a bowl as an underdog, while going 9-2-1 in the past 12 against winning teams.

-- The under is 5-1 in Notre Dame's past six neutral-site battles, while going 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite.

Cotton Bowl Classic (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Memphis vs. Penn State

-- The Cotton Bowl Classic features a battle between the high-flying Memphis Tigers (12-1 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference against the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex.

-- Penn State was so-so offensively, ranking 64th with 403.7 total yards per game and 69th with 228.7 passing yards per contest. On the ground they managed 175.0 yards per outing to check in 49th, while averaging 34.3 points per game to end up 24th in the land. Defensively they were a lockdown team, ranking 23rd in total yards allowed (330.5), 78th with 232.5 passing yards allowed and just seventh in points per game allowed at 14.1. Against the run, a key for Penn State in this game, they were fifth overall with just 98.0 rushing yards per game allowed.

-- Memphis, the top Group of Five entrant, can really score. They're 10th in the nation with 480.7 total yards per game, 26th in passing yards (284.5) and 34th in rushing yards (196.2), while posting 40.5 points per game to rank eighth in the country. Defensively they can hold their own, ranking 49th with 372.3 total yards allowed, 34th against the pass (200.7) and 79th against the rush (171.6) while allowing 24.4 points per game to check in 76th.

-- Tigers freshman RB Kenneth Gainwell is a handful, as he rumbled for 1,425 yards on the ground while gathering 12 touchdowns. QB Brady White can sling it, too, though, going for 3,560 passing yards, so they're anything but one dimensional.

-- Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford led the way with 2,521 yards, hitting WR KJ Hamler for 858 of those yards. Yetur Gross-Matos posted eight sacks. Clifford (leg) and Gross-Matos (arm) are each listed on the injury report, but both fully expected to play.

-- Memphis is hoping to turn things around in bowl games. They won their first two postseason appearances in 1971, and then 2003. However, they 2-7 since, including four straight bowl losses. They fell 37-34 to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl last season.

-- Penn State has a lengthy bowl history, and most of it good. However, they haven't been great lately, going 3-6 SU in the past nine, including a loss to Kentucky in last season's Citrus Bowl. They have won two of five bowl trips under current head coach James Franklin. The last time they faced an AAC team in the postseason they lost to Houston in the TicketCity Bowl in the Cotton Bowl, 30-14, back on Jan. 2, 2012.

-- The Tigers are colkd against the number, going 4-9 ATS in the past 13 as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl appearances. In addition, they're 1-10 ATS in the past 11 games in the month of December.

-- Conversely, Penn State is 4-0 ATS in the past four December showings, while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 non-conference tilts. They're also 20-9-2 ATS in the past 31 against winning teams, but just 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- For Memphis, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 games overall, while going 12-4 in the past 16 non-conference tilts and 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 as an underdog.

-- The over has hit in each of the past four neutral-site games for Penn State, while going 4-1 in their past five bowl appearances. The over is 8-1 in their past nine non-conference battles, too, while going 4-1 in the past five vs. AAC foes. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 overall for Penn State, however.