NCAAF Bowl Game News, Match-Ups and Trends For Thursday 12/26/19

Dec 26- Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Skip Holtz is 5-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech, were underdog in last two; senior QB Smith is 3-year starter. Tech figures to have crowd support wth game in Shreveport. Bulldogs were held under 300 total yards in all three losses TY- they lost two of last three regular season games, with backup QB playing in the losses; starter came back in last game. Tech is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Miami lost four of its last five bowls; this is Diaz’ first bowl as a HC. Canes are 6-6, losing last two games, with a loss to FIU of C-USA. Miami is 11-17 ATS in last 28 games as a favorite, 2-6 TY. ACC teams won this game the last four years; average total in last six Independence Bowls, 68.2.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit
Eastern Michigan lost bowls in ’16, ’18 by total of six points but they covered both games; Eagles are 20-6-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog, 3-3 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Pitt lost its last four bowls, were favored in two of them; their last bowl win was here six years ago. Panthers are 7-5 TY, scoring total of 19 points in losing last two games; they’re 6-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-5 when they don’t. Pitt is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a favorite, but they’re 2-5-1 in last eight tries as a double digit fave. Five of their last six games stayed under total.. Underdogs are 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total 51.2. MAC teams lost last three appearances here, scoring 19.3 ppg. Game is indoors, so no weather worries.

Thursday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Independence Bowl (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Louisiana Tech vs. Miami-Florida

-- The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of Conference USA will tangle with the Miami Hurricanes (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.

-- The Bulldogs will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and their fifth-ever appearance in the Independence Bowl. They made their first-ever bowl appearnace against Louisville in 1977, winning 24-14. They lost the next season against East Carolina before returning in 1990 for a tie against Maryland. They also apppeared on Dec. 28, 2008, topping Northern Illinois in a low-scoring game, 17-10. Overall La. Tech holds a 7-3-1 SU record in bowl games, including wins in each of the past five. They topped Hawaii in the Hawai'i Bowl by a 31-14 score in Honolulu last Dec. 22, 2018.

-- The Hurricanes have an extensive bowl history, including five national championships to their credit. However, while they were once one of the most feared football programs in America during the 1980's and 1990's, they have fallen on hard, or really, mediocre, times. Since winning the MPC Computers Bowl over Nevada on New Year's Eve in 2006, they have posted just one win in their previous nine bowl outings. That lone win is a 31-14 victory over West Virginia at the Russell Athletic Bowl, not exactly known as one of the best bowls on the schedule. They haven't faced a Group of Five team in a bowl since that MPC Computers Bowl game, a win. In fact, that was one of just three appearances in school history against a non-Power 5 team. Before 2006, they had a 13-6 win over Holy Cross in the 1946 Orange Bowl, and a 26-0 loss to Bucknell in the 1935 Orange Bowl. So this is unchartered territory.

-- Louisiana Tech is located in Ruston, La., just one hour east of Shreveport off of Interstate 20, so you can expect a pro-Bulldogs crowd. In the state of Louisiana, all in Ruston, the Bulldogs were a perfect 6-0/4-2 ATS. They averaged 45.0 points per game in those six games at home, while going 3-3 SU/ATS in their six true road games, including losses in each of the past two. They averaged just 23.0 PPG in their six games away from home in 2019.

-- Miami were on their way to closing out the season in style. They opened with losses to Florida and North Carolina, before wins against FCS Bethune Cookman and Central Michigan. A loss to Virginia Tech, and a win over Virginia, had them at 3-3 SU/ATS midway through. They lost a tough overtime game to Georgia Tech to slip to 3-4, and a bowl appearance looked rather remote. However, they picked up road wins at Pittsburgh and Florida State to snap on track, and a dominant 52-27 win over Louisville had them in good shape and eligible. However, a stunning loss to crosstown rival Florida International, and a setback at Duke, evened them out at 6-6. Against Group of Five FBS teams they were 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS this season.

-- Miami ranked 88th in total yards (379.7) on offense, while ranking 42nd in passing yards (257.2). They were also a dismal 120th (122.5) in rushing yards per game, while ranking 73rd in points scored (27.8). Defensively, Miami was Miami. They ranked 13th in the nation in yards allowed (307.8), which is what we expect from the Canes. They were also 22nd against the pass (197.9), 16th against the rush (109.8) and 25th in points allowed (20.8).

-- Louisiana Tech was 30th in total yards per game (445.2), 31st in passing yards (277.3) and 60th in rushing yards (167.9) per game, while posting 34.0 points per game to rank 28th. Defensively they were middle of the road, ranking 70th in total yards allowed (393.9), 98th in passing yards allowed (247.8) and 54th in rushing yards allowed (146.2), while yielding 23.7 points per game to check in 46th in the country.

-- Louisiana Tech has covered five of their past seven games overall, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 as an underdog. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their past seven bowl apperances.

-- Miami is 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a favorite.

-- The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles, while going 1-7 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in the past eight bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Quick Lake Bowl (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan

-- The Quick Lane Bowl pits the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference facing the Eastern Conference Eagles (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference at Ford Field in Detroit, Mich.

-- Pittsburgh has enjoyed a lengthy bowl history dating back to the 1927 Rose Bowl. During that history, however, they have never faced a MAC opponent in a bowl game. The Panthers are looking to get untracked after getting dumped 31-24 by Stanford in the Sun Bowl last December.

-- Eastern Michigan heads over from nearby Washtenaw County to downtown Detroit for the fourth bowl game in school history. They're 1-2 SU all-time in bowl games, iwht their only victory coming back in Dec. 1987 against San Jose State in the California Bowl. They lost a narrow battle against Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl in Alabama last season.

-- The Panthers ranked 95th in total yards per game (374.1), while ranking a dismal 121st in rushing yards (120.7) per contest. They were above-average in passing yards per game at 253.4, led by Kenny Pickett, who had 2,737 passing yards. They were just 115th in points scored, however, managing a dismal 20.1 PPG. Defensively they were outstanding, as the Panthers allowed just 302.5 total yards per game to rank 11th in the nation, they gave up just 195.6 passing yards per game to rank 20th and they were 10th against the run with 106.9 yards per game. They also allowed only 21.8 points per game to check in 31st.

-- For the Eagles, they were a mediocre 67th in total yards per game (402.8), while ranking 118th in rushing yards per game (123.1). EMU was a very strong 29th in the nation with 279.7 passing yards per game, while posting 29.1 points per outing to rank 64th. Defensively, EMU had their issues, allowing 428.3 total yards per game to rank 92nd, 66th against the pass (225.8) and 109th against the rush (202.4). They yielded 30.3 PPG to check in 85th overall.

-- Pitt has posted a 10-4 ATS mark in their past 14 games in the month of December, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles. They're also a solid 3-0-1 ATS in the past four appearances on a fieldturf surface.

-- The Panthers are a dismal 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs, however, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- Eastern Michigan is 17-6 ATS in the past 23 following a straight-up loss, and 14-4 ATS in the past 18 after a non-cover.

-- EMU is 17-8 ATS in the past 25 against winning teams, while going 21-7 ATS in the past 28 as an underdog and 17-5 ATS in the past 22 non-conference battles.

-- The under is 28-10-1 in the past 39 games overall for Pittsburgh, while going 7-1 in their past eight as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in their past seven non-conference battles, too, while cashing in four of the past five bowl games as a favorite.

-- The over is 4-1-1 in Eastern Michigan's past six games overall, 3-0-2 in the past five against teams with a winning record and 5-0-1 in the past six as an underdog.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Hot & Not Report - Bowls
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece on NFL trends heading into Week 16 didn't bring the best results, and with Week 17 being one that generally resembles a crap shoot for the bulk of the card with motivation and who's suiting up being big question marks throughout the week, it's back to the collegiate game this week.

NFL angles will be back in time for the playoffs early next week, but with a plethora of Bowl games in the more immediate future, here are a couple of 'lighter' angles to keep on your holiday plate for the next 10 days or so.

Who's Hot

ACC teams in Boxing Day Bowls: 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in CFB Playoff era (2014-15)

Historical information like this isn't always the most in-depth approach or even the most relevant knowledge in some cases, but considering Boxing Day (Dec. 26) this year has just two Bowl games on the card and there is an ACC team involved in each, it was worth pointing out. Miami and Pittsburgh are chalk in their respective games this year, and while ACC chalk is just 3-2 ATS in the span outlined in the header, if you do believe they will win the game, laying the points doesn't hurt.

That 7-3 SU and ATS run by ACC teams on Boxing Day is perfectly correlated (ie there were no ATS covers coming in SU defeats), with one exception, so keep that in mind. It does work the other way too in that if you are looking at taking the points with Louisiana Tech or Eastern Michigan later this week, dousing the ML with a partial unit should be considered as well. The University of Miami did account for one of those past SU and ATS losses on Boxing Day – their only appearance in this data – as a 20-14 loss to Washington State (-1.5) back in 2015 is one of the three ACC blemishes on this day in recent years.

That one exception – Virginia Tech winning 55-52 back in 2015 as double-digit (-14) chalk.

But what may be even more interesting for this data set is the fact that not only are the SU wins correlated with ATS wins perfectly, but the same goes for the totals in these games as well.

In the seven SU/ATS wins by ACC programs in Boxing Day Bowls the past few years, the 'over' has gone 6-0-1 O/U, while the three SU/ATS losses by ACC schools has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U to the 'under'. That is quite the history when you think about it, and how you chose to use that information (if at all) for this year's games is up to you. But it does suggest that with Pittsburgh (-11.5) and Miami (-6) both being expected to win their respective games, the 'over' may end up being the place to look that does give you more margin for error.

Yes, the SU and ATS results have nearly always been perfectly correlated in the sense that the point spread hasn't mattered, but the one time it did – Virginia Tech in 2015 – was the only other time prior to this year that an ACC school was laying double-digit chalk. That puts Pittsburgh in the trickier spot this week, at least in terms of the side, which is why I do say that the 'over' (at least in that game) does potentially give you more of a margin for error. Pitt wasn't an 'over' team at all this season (3-9 O/U), but Eastern Michigan was (7-3-2 O/U), and if the Eagles do find a way to make a game of it, chances are it will be a game that should surpass their current total of 49.

Who's Not

Backing Favorites in non-CFB Playoff New Year's Day Bowl games – 1-7 ATS and 2-6 SU the last two seasons

If you are someone who tends to wake up groggy and hungover on New Year's Day, when you take your dog out for a walk to get some fresh air and shake loose some of the cobwebs, make sure you put some underdog betting tickets in your pocket at the same time. That's because underdogs playing on this day have been money the past two years, going 7-1 ATS and 6-2 outright in that span.

When you really step back and think about it, the general theory does make a lot of sense too. All year you hear announcers talk about how important it is for many programs to be playing in a New Year's Day Bowl game, but that's not the reality for all of them. A lot of the time it's this day that houses those teams that finished ranked #5 through #10 in the CFB Playoff rankings, meaning they just missed out on their ultimate goal and there is simply no desire to go out and be at their best in a Bowl game on New Year's Day that's only lost more and more prestige as the years have gone on. That's not even mentioning that the lone ATS loss for underdogs in this spot came by a half-point last year in UCF's 40-32 loss to LSU when the Knights closed at +7.5.

But when the past two seasons has had brand name programs like LSU, Auburn and Michigan all lose outright as chalk in 2017 – Auburn and Michigan laying -9 or more – and the likes of Georgia (-13.5) and Penn State (-4.5) lose outright in 2018, you can see how the lack of motivation for these schools who just missed out on the playoff does come into play. This year we've got a few more candidates that fit that role, as all eight teams in action finished the year ranked in the Top 18 in the country.

The Baylor/Georgia (-6.5) game is really interesting given that both teams basically needed just a win in their Conference Championship game to be playoff bound, and for the entire Bowl season I'm not sure there is another game where you could have neither side wanting to be there like that one.

Wisconsin (-2.5/3) is currently laying about a FG against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and while neither team likely saw their playoff hopes dashed in the final week of the season, you could make that argument for Wisconsin given they held a halftime lead against #1 Ohio State in the Big 10 Title game and then crumbled after half.

Auburn is laying a TD against Minnesota in a game that could end up being one that bucks this trend, as Auburn was never really a serious playoff contender down the stretch, and Minnesota was, had they not stumbled late in the year.

And then there is the Michigan/Alabama (-7), one that fits taking the points rather well, as long as you believe the Wolverines are able to pick themselves up off the canvas after suffering humiliation yet again in the Ohio State game. That's a role that's buried Michigan before in their Bowl game, but Alabama lost more later in the year in terms of the playoff picture, and having been involved in the CFB playoff every year since its inception, a “regular” Bowl appearance for the Crimson Tide has to be a huge disappointment.

Meanwhile, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is in need of a significant win now more then ever with how his teams have performed against top level competition during his tenure at Michigan, and a lack of excitement/motivation from Alabama could be just what the doctor ordered for Harbaugh's crew. Alabama still has plenty of cache in their name in terms of Harbaugh beating a quality foe, and let's not forget the Tide are still without their starting QB.

That's got to be about as good as it gets situationally for a play on Michigan here, you've just got to hope that the Wolverines are motivated themselves.

Bowl Tech Trends
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, December 26

MIAMI-FLA. vs. LA TECH (Independence Bowl)...Canes 2-6 as chalk TY, as dogs were 10-2 vs. line in Miami games. Miami has also failed to cover in 4 of last 6 bowls. Skip Holtz 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Holtz also 5-0 SU, 4-1 in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.

PITT vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN (Quick Lane Bowl)...Pitt 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Narduzzi 1-5-1 as DD chalk since 2016, but did cover 4 of 5 away TY. EMU 4-2-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti this season, now 21-6-1 away from home since 2016, and 20-5-2 as dog since 2016. Note Panthers “under” 13-3 since late 2018.
EMU and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.

NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, December 26

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MIAMI (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (9 - 3) - 12/26/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) vs. E MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 12/26/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NCAAF
Trend Report
Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-FL
No trends to report

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

NCAAF
Dunkel
Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL

Game 224-223
December 26, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
80.102
Miami-FL
83.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
50
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(+6); Under

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan

Game 225-226
December 26, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
82.580
Eastern Michigan
74.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+11); Under