Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
December 23
Birmingham Bowl
Troy (-7.5) vs Duke
Troy (11-2)
— Troy won its last ten games (8-1 ATS last nine).
— Trojans HC quit, moved on to Tulane.
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— under Sumrall, Trojans were 6-5 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year.
— Last four games, Troy scored 40 points/game.
— Last seven games. Trojans are +9 in turnovers.
— Troy’s last four games went over the total.
— Troy won/covered its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.
Duke (7-5)
— QB bolted to Notre Dame, coach bolted to Texas A&M.
— Duke is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Duke allowed 21 or less points in its wins, 31.8 ppg in losses.
— Duke is 1-3 TY in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog (2-3 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— freshman backup QB threw 137 passes TY (8 TD, 3 INT)
— Blue Devils are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— over is 5-1 in their last six games.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.
— ACC underdogs are 7-10 ATS out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Birmingham Bowls.
— average total in this bowl the last six years: 64.0.
— since 2019, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State (-1) vs Northern Illinois (@ Montgomery, AL)
Arkansas State (6-6)
— Red Wolves won 77-31 (Texas State), lost 72-0 (Ohio State).
— Arkansas State is 1-1 in games decided by less than 10 points.
— ASU is 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 29 starts back on offensive line; they added 4 transfers.
— freshman QB completed 58.8% of passes (15 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— ASU allowed 436+ TY in five of last seven games.
— Last four games, Red Wolves are +6 in turnovers.
— Butch Jones is 4-2 SU in bowl games.
— This is Arkansas State’s first bowl since 2019.
— Red Wolves are 2-3 SU in their last five bowls.
Northern Illinois (6-6)
— Huskies won five of last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— NIU is 4-1 giving up 14 or fewer points, 2-5 giving up 20+ points.
— NIU is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-9 in its losses.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— senior QB made 16 starts before this year.
— NIU is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Hammock, NIU is 9-7 ATS in non-league games
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— NIU went to one bowl the last four years.
— Huskies lost their last seven bowls (1-4 ATS last five)
— MAC teams are 17-18 ATS this year, out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met since 2011.
— Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years.
— since 2015, Sun Belt teams are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— average total in this bowl the last five years: 49.2
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.
Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison (-3) vs Air Force (@ Fort Worth, TX)
James Madison (11-1)
— JMU’s only loss was 26-23 at home to App State Nov 18.
— Dukes have fun wins by 8 or fewer points.
— Dukes are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— JMU’s coach has bolted to Indiana.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line- lot of experience.
— junior QB has completed 68.9% of his passes, thrown 32 TD’s, 9 INT’s.
— JMU is 22-10 ATS in last 32 games as a favorite.
— In September, JMU won 45-38 at Utah State of Mountain West
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This is James Madison’s first bowl.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.
Air Force (8-4)
— Air Force lost its last four games, after an 8-0 start.
— Last four games, Falcons scored 15.5 ppg.
— Last four games, AF was minus-8 in turnovers.
— Seven of Air Force’s eight I-A wins are by 10+ points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 62 passes, run ball 133 times.
— since 2015, Air Force is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— since 2016, Flyboys are 20-11-1 ATS in non-league games.
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Falcons (+3.5) won this bowl 30-15 last year.
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2017, service academies are 4-0 SU in this game.
— last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.
Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State vs Utah State (-1) (@ Boise, ID)
Georgia State (6-6)
— Panthers lost last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Georgia State allowed 42+ points in 4 of last 5 losses.
— Panthers scored 30+ points in five of their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 23 starts.
— Georgia State is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 non-league games.
— Panthers are 5-4-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
— Panthers won three of last four bowls, scoring 39-51 in last two.
— Sun Belt teams are 18-14 ATS out of conference.
Utah State (6-6)
— Aggies won last game 44-41 to become bowl eligible.
— Utah State won three of its last four games.
— Utah State is 23-16 SU in three years under Anderson.
— USU is 6-2 when it scores 32+ points, 0-4 if it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Aggies gave up 352/337 yards rushing.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— TY, Aggies are 3-6 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 8-10 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— last six games, Aggies are minus-7 in turnovers.
— over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.
— Mountain West teams are 20-13 ATS out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in last six Potato Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.
Mobile Bowl
Eastern Michigan @ South Alabama (-16) (@ Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (6-6)
— EMU won last two games, 30-27/24-11, to become bowl eligible.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
— EMU is 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS on the road this year.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith is completing 57.4% of passes, with 9 TD’s, 7 INT’s.
— EMU is 28-8 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog (4-2 TY).
— under Creighton, EMU is 30-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Eagles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— three of their last four games went over.
— Eagles are 22-16 SU last three years (32-61 from 2013-20).
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.
— MAC road underdogs are 15-12 ATS out of conference.
South Alabama (6-6)
— USA is 4-1 when it scores 33+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— Five of six Jaguar wins were by 18+ points.
— USA is 1-4 in games decided by 13 or less points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 13 career starts coming into this year.
— Jaguars lost SU twice as a double digit favorite TY (3-3 ATS).
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Jaguars’ last five games stayed under the total.
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
— South Alabama is 0-3 in bowl games (’14, ’16, last year)
— Sun Belt home favorites are 5-4 ATS out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites covered this bowl the last three years.
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.
— This bowl is played in South Alabama’s stadium.
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah (-7) vs Northwestern
Utah (8-4)
— Utah is 2-3 in its last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Utes are 7-0 when they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they allow more than 17.
— Utah allowed 32+ points in four of last six games.
— Utah is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite (4-2 TY).
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— soph QB Barnes is completing 58.5% of passes (12 TD/9 INT)
— last 4+ years, Utes are 42-17 SU.
— Utah is 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— Five of their last seven games went over.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
— Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.
Northwestern (7-5)
— Northwestern had off-field issues in off-season, has a new coach.
— Ex-coach Fitzgerald was 111-101 there, played there; big change
— Interim coach did so well, he is now the full-time coach.
— Wildcats won last three games to become bowl eligible.
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 11 games at Cincinnati last year.
— Northwestern covered its last six games (4-2 SU)
— Wildcats covered their last five tries as an underdog.
— Northwestern is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This is Northwestern’s first bowl since 2020.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls (two as an underdog)
— Northwestern (+7) upset Utah 31-20 in 2018 Holiday Bowl.
— Favorite covered last four Las Vegas Bowls.
— since 2013, Pac-12 teams are 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Pac-12 teams are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs Big 14 opponents.
Hawai’i Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State (-10)
Coastal Carolina (7-5)
— Coastal’s 4-year starting QB has bolted to NC State.
— Coastal lost last two games, 28-21/56-14.
— Chanticleers are 0-5 giving up 27+ points, 7-0 giving up less than 27.
— Coastal is 3-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Chanticleers are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as an underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB has completed 62.9% of passes (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Coastal is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 non-league games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Coastal has played in bowls the last three years, their first three bowls.
— Coastal was 1-2 in those bowls, with average total of 80.3.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS out of conference.
San Jose State (7-5)
— Spartans won their last six games, after a 1-5 start.
— San Jose allowed 35+ points in four of five losses.
— Spartans are bowl eligible for third time in four years.
— San Jose is 6-0 when they score 30+, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Spartans are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 12-13 ATS in non-conference tilts.
— San Jose ran ball for 217+ yards in five of last six games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— San Jose made bowls two of last three years, but lost both.
— Mountain West favorites are 4-4 ATS out of conference.
— Underdogs won the last five Hawai’i Bowls SU.
— Mountain West teams are 4-2 ATS in last six Hawai’i Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
Trend Report
December 23
Arkansas State @ Northern Illinois
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games
Troy @ Duke
Troy
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Duke
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Georgia State @ Utah State
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games
James Madison @ Air Force
James Madison
James Madison is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
James Madison is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Air Force
Air Force is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games
South Alabama @ Eastern Michigan
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games
South Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games
Utah @ Northwestern
Utah
Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Coastal Carolina @ San Jose State
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games