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NCAAF Bowl Trends 12/18 - 1/10

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(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Saturday, December 18

UTEP (6 - 6) vs. BYU (6 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

N ILLINOIS (10 - 3) vs. FRESNO ST (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
N ILLINOIS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

OHIO U (8 - 4) vs. TROY (7 - 5)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Tuesday, December 21

LOUISVILLE (6 - 6) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (8 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Wednesday, December 22

UTAH (10 - 2) vs. BOISE ST (11 - 1)

Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
BOISE ST is 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOISE ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BOISE ST is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
UTAH is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UTAH is 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTAH is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Thursday, December 23

NAVY (8 - 3) at SAN DIEGO ST (8 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Friday, December 24

TULSA (9 - 3) at HAWAII (10 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
HAWAII is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
HAWAII is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAWAII is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
HAWAII is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
HAWAII is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Sunday, December 26

FLA INTERNATIONAL (6 - 6) vs. TOLEDO (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TOLEDO is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 1-1 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Monday, December 27

GEORGIA TECH (6 - 6) vs. AIR FORCE (8 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Tuesday, December 28

NC STATE (8 - 4) vs. W VIRGINIA (9 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MISSOURI (10 - 2) vs. IOWA (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Wednesday, December 29

E CAROLINA (6 - 6) vs. MARYLAND (8 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ILLINOIS (6 - 6) vs. BAYLOR (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ARIZONA (7 - 5) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (10 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Thursday, December 30

ARMY (6 - 5) vs. SMU (7 - 6)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KANSAS ST (7 - 5) vs. SYRACUSE (7 - 5)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

N CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. TENNESSEE (6 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WASHINGTON (6 - 6) vs. NEBRASKA (10 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Friday, December 31

S FLORIDA (7 - 5) vs. CLEMSON (6 - 6)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NOTRE DAME (7 - 5) vs. MIAMI (7 - 5)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

UCF (10 - 3) vs. GEORGIA (6 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
GEORGIA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UCF is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FLORIDA ST (9 - 4) vs. S CAROLINA (9 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Saturday, January 1

NORTHWESTERN (7 - 5) vs. TEXAS TECH (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

PENN ST (7 - 5) vs. FLORIDA (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MICHIGAN ST (11 - 1) vs. ALABAMA (9 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
ALABAMA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TCU (12 - 0) vs. WISCONSIN (11 - 1)

Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
TCU is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TCU is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
TCU is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

CONNECTICUT (8 - 4) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Monday, January 3

VIRGINIA TECH (11 - 2) vs. STANFORD (11 - 1)

Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Tuesday, January 4

ARKANSAS (10 - 2) vs. OHIO ST (11 - 1)

Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
OHIO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
OHIO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
ARKANSAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ARKANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ARKANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
OHIO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against SEC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Thursday, January 6

MIDDLE TENN ST (6 - 6) vs. MIAMI OHIO (9 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Friday, January 7

TEXAS A&M (9 - 3) vs. LSU (10 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Saturday, January 8

KENTUCKY (6 - 6) vs. PITTSBURGH (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Sunday, January 9

BOSTON COLLEGE (7 - 5) vs. NEVADA (12 - 1)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Monday, January 10

OREGON (12 - 0) vs. AUBURN (13 - 0)

Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 
Posted : December 14, 2010 10:32 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Saturday, December 18

TEXAS EL PASO vs. BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 6 games
Texas El Paso is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
BYU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of BYU's last 12 games

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. FRESNO STATE
Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Northern Illinois is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Fresno State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

OHIO vs. TROY
Ohio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Troy is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games

Tuesday, December 21

LOUISVILLE vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 6 games
Southern Miss is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisville
Southern Miss is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

Wednesday, December 22

UTAH vs. BOISE STATE
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
Boise State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games

NAVY vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Navy6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Friday, December 24

TULSA vs. HAWAII
Tulsa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hawaii
Tulsa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 7 games

Sunday, December 26

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO
Florida International is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games
Toledo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Monday, December 27

GEORGIA TECH vs. AIR FORCE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games
Georgia Tech is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Air Force's last 11 games
Air Force is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games

Tuesday, December 28

NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
North Carolina State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games

MISSOURI vs. IOWA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri's last 5 games
Missouri is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Iowa is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa's last 5 games

Wednesday, December 29

EAST CAROLINA vs. MARYLAND
East Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
East Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 6 games
Maryland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

ILLINOIS vs. BAYLOR
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 8 games
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

ARIZONA vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Oklahoma State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma State's last 12 games

Thursday, December 30

ARMY vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
Army is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

KANSAS STATE vs. SYRACUSE
Kansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas State's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 6 games

NORTH CAROLINA vs. TENNESSEE
North Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 11 games

WASHINGTON vs. NEBRASKA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska's last 6 games
Nebraska is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games

Friday, December 31

SOUTH FLORIDA vs. CLEMSON
South Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Clemson's last 5 games

NOTRE DAME vs. MIAMI
Notre Dame is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 5 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games

CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Florida's last 9 games
Central Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Georgia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

FLORIDA STATE vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State's last 11 games
Florida State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of South Carolina's last 10 games
South Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Saturday, January 1

NORTHWESTERN vs. TEXAS TECH
Northwestern is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Texas Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

PENN STATE vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Penn State's last 7 games
Penn State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Florida is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

MICHIGAN STATE vs. ALABAMA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 7 games
Michigan State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Alabama is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Alabama is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

MICHIGAN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Michigan is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

TCU vs. WISCONSIN
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Wisconsin's last 8 games

CONNECTICUT vs. OKLAHOMA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 6 games

Monday, January 3

VIRGINIA TECH vs. STANFORD
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games
Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tuesday, January 4

ARKANSAS vs. OHIO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arkansas's last 7 games
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Thursday, January 6

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Middle Tennessee is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Miami (Ohio) is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 5 games

Friday, January 7

TEXAS A&M vs. LSU
Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

Saturday, January 8

KENTUCKY vs. PITTSBURGH
Kentucky is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Sunday, January 9

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. NEVADA
Boston College is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College's last 5 games
Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Monday, January 10

OREGON vs. AUBURN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 
Posted : December 14, 2010 10:36 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Saturday, 12/18/2010

UTEP vs. BYU
UTEP: 6-16 ATS playing with rest
BYU: 13-3 Under on neutral field

N ILLINOIS vs. FRESNO ST
N ILLINOIS: 7-1 ATS after the first month of the season
FRESNO ST: 3-13 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

OHIO U vs. TROY
OHIO U: 13-5 ATS after the first month of the season
TROY: 10-2 UNDER after a bye week

Tuesday, 12/21/2010

LOUISVILLE vs. SOUTHERN MISS
LOUISVILLE: 4-1 ATS after a bye week
SOUTHERN MISS: 18-7 Under off road loss

Wednesday, 12/22/2010

UTAH vs. BOISE ST
UTAH: 28-13 Under Away off home win
BOISE ST: 61-22 ATS 2nd half of the season

Thursday, 12/23/2010

NAVY at SAN DIEGO ST
NAVY: N/A
SAN DIEGO ST: N/A

Friday, 12/24/2010

TULSA at HAWAII
TULSA: 0-8 ATS Away after gaining 475+ yds BB games
HAWAII: 7-0 ATS in home games

Sunday, 12/26/2010

FLA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO
FLA INTERNATIONAL: 2-11 ATS after a bye week
TOLEDO: 50-31 ATS as a favorite

Monday, 12/27/2010

GEORGIA TECH vs. AIR FORCE
GEORGIA TECH: 43-24 Under as an underdog
AIR FORCE: 16-33 ATS off BB ATS losses

Tuesday, 12/28/2010

NC STATE vs. W VIRGINIA
NC STATE: 17-7 ATS as an underdog
W VIRGINIA: 8-19 ATS against ACC opponents

MISSOURI vs. IOWA
MISSOURI: 7-18 ATS after a win by 28+ points
IOWA: 9-1 ATS Away vs. team with winning record

Wednesday, 12/29/2010

E CAROLINA vs. MARYLAND
E CAROLINA: 22-10 ATS after allowing 31+ pts BB games
MARYLAND: 21-5 Under after scoring 37+ points

ILLINOIS vs. BAYLOR
ILLINOIS: 0-10 ATS fter allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
BAYLOR: 7-1 Over after 1st month of season

ARIZONA vs. OKLAHOMA ST
ARIZONA: 28-47 ATS off an Over
OKLAHOMA ST: 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Thursday, 12/30/2010

ARMY vs. SMU
ARMY: N/A
SMU: N/A

KANSAS ST vs. SYRACUSE
KANSAS ST: 35-19 ATS after scoring 42+ points
SYRACUSE: 2-11 ATS Away off SU loss as favorite

N CAROLINA vs. TENNESSEE
N CAROLINA: 5-1 ATS vs. SEC
TENNESSEE: 9-1 Under off BB Unders

WASHINGTON vs. NEBRASKA
WASHINGTON: 13-4 Over Away playing with rest
NEBRASKA: 15-4 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yds

Friday, 12/31/2010

S FLORIDA vs. at CLEMSON
S FLORIDA: 7-0 Under Away off conf loss by 7 pts or less
CLEMSON: 10-1 Under in all games this season

NOTRE DAME vs. MIAMI
NOTRE DAME: 2-8 ATS as neutral field underdog
MIAMI: 9-2 Under vs. non-conference

UCF vs. GEORGIA
UCF: 11-1 ATS off an Under
GEORGIA: 6-1 Over as a favorite

FLORIDA ST vs. S CAROLINA
FLORIDA ST: 10-2 Over as an underdog
S CAROLINA: 0-3 ATS on neutral field

Saturday, 1/1/2011

NORTHWESTERN vs. TEXAS TECH
NORTHWESTERN: 34-17 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
TEXAS TECH: 9-1 Under off ATS win

PENN ST vs. FLORIDA
PENN ST: 7-0 Under vs. non-conference
FLORIDA: 6-0 ATS playing with rest

MICHIGAN ST vs. ALABAMA
MICHIGAN ST: 54-32 Over as an underdog
ALABAMA: 23-39 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points

MICHIGAN vs. MISSISSIPPI ST
MICHIGAN: 0-10 ATS 2nd half of the season
MISSISSIPPI ST: 16-6 Under playing with rest

TCU vs. WISCONSIN
TCU: 19-8 Over off 3 straight conf wins
WISCONSIN: 6-0 ATS off conference win

CONNECTICUT vs. OKLAHOMA
CONNECTICUT: 6-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less
OKLAHOMA: 2-6 ATS in January bowl games

Monday, 1/3/2011

VIRGINIA TECH vs. STANFORD
VIRGINIA TECH: 8-1 ATS L9 games
STANFORD: 36-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Tuesday, 1/4/2011

ARKANSAS vs. OHIO ST
ARKANSAS: 6-0 ATS L6 games
OHIO ST: 0-7 ATS vs. SEC

Thursday, 1/6/2011

MIDDLE TENN ST vs. at MIAMI OHIO
MIDDLE TENN ST: 10-1 ATS off SU dog win
MIAMI OHIO: 8-0 Under off conference game

Friday, 1/7/2011

TEXAS A&M vs. LSU
TEXAS A&M: 6-0 ATS 2nd half of season
LSU: 6-0 Over Away off an Under

Saturday, 1/8/2011

KENTUCKY vs. PITTSBURGH
KENTUCKY: 5-1 Over after scoring 14 pts or less
PITTSBURGH: 35-20 ATS off conference win

Sunday, 1/9/2011

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. at NEVADA
BOSTON COLLEGE: 9-2 Under this season
NEVADA: 6-0 ATS after 3 straight games w/ 1 or less turnovers

Monday, 1/10/2011

OREGON vs. at AUBURN
OREGON: 37-16 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
AUBURN: 13-5 Over as favorite

 
Posted : December 14, 2010 10:41 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

DUNKEL INDEX

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 18

Game 201-202: UTEP vs. BYU (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 74.748; BYU 88.917
Dunkel Line: BYU by 14; 46
Vegas Line: BYU by 11 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-11 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 89.642; Fresno State 90.650
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 1 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 205-206: Ohio vs. Troy (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 79.142; Troy 77.734
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Troy by 1 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+1 1/2); Under

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 207-208: Louisville vs. Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 92.423; Southern Mississippi 87.227
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 5; 60
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 57
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Over

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 209-210: Utah vs. Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 93.033; Boise State 112.938
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20; 66
Vegas Line: Boise State by 17; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17); Over

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 211-212: Navy at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 94.174; San Diego State 90.373
Dunkel Line: Navy by 4; 55
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 6; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+6); Under

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 213-214: Tulsa at Hawaii (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 92.267; Hawaii 100.832
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 8 1/2; 81
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 11; 73
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+11); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 215-216: Florida International vs. Toledo (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 75.601; Toledo 78.962
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Toledo by 1; 56
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-1); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 217-218: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 87.764; Air Force 92.898
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Air Force by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-3); Over

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 219-220: NC State vs. West Virginia (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 94.568; West Virginia 95.170
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1; 44
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+3); Under

Game 221-222: Missouri vs. Iowa (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 98.960; Iowa 101.253
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 2 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Missouri by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+1); Over

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 223-224: East Carolina vs. Maryland (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 79.803; Maryland 89.995
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 10; 65
Vegas Line: Maryland by 7; 68
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-7); Under

Game 225-226: Illinois vs. Baylor (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 92.573; Baylor 90.363
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 2; 66
Vegas Line: Baylor by 2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+2); Over

Game 227-228: Arizona vs. Oklahoma State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 95.319; Oklahoma State 104.347
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 9; 59
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-5 1/2); Under

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 229-230: Army at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 80.438; SMU 80.417
Dunkel Line: Even; 56
Vegas Line: SMU by 8; 52
Dunkel Pick: Army (+8); Over

Game 231-232: Kansas State vs. Syracuse (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 90.647; Syracuse 85.421
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State; Under

Game 233-234: North Carolina vs. Tennessee (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 94.185; Tennessee 90.274
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 4; 53
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-2); Over

Game 235-236: Washington vs. Nebraska (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 91.303; Nebraska 102.224
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 11; 47
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 14; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+14); Under

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31

Game 237-238: South Florida vs. Clemson (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 89.274; Clemson 95.261
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 6; 38
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-4 1/2); Under

Game 239-240: Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL) (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 95.573; Miami (FL) 94.569
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+3); Over

Game 241-242: Central Florida vs. Georgia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.615; Georgia 99.592
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-6 1/2); Under

Game 243-244: Florida State vs. South Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 100.976; South Carolina 99.270
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+3 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 245-246: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 86.158; Texas Tech 96.095
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 10; 68
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 9; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-9); Over

Game 247-248: Penn State vs. Florida (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 92.214; Florida 96.607
Dunkel Line: Florida by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Florida by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 249-250: Michigan State vs. Alabama (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 99.645; Alabama 106.484
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Alabama by 10; 52
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+10); Under

Game 251-252: Michigan vs. Mississippi State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 90.423; Mississippi State 96.909
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 6 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 4 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-4 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: TCU vs. Wisconsin (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 113.062; Wisconsin 106.516
Dunkel Line: TCU by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: TCU by 2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-2); Under

Game 255-256: Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 91.667; Oklahoma 105.565
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 14; 50
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17; 55
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+17); Under

MONDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 257-258: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 105.590; Stanford 105.836
Dunkel Line: Even; 63
Vegas Line: Stanford by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+3); Over

TUESDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 259-260: Arkansas vs. Ohio State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 100.793; Ohio State 108.255
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3; 58
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-3); Under

THURSDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 261-262: Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (OH) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 72.742; Miami (OH) 76.815
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 4; 53
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 1 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-1 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 263-264: Texas A&M vs. LSU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 99.773; LSU 98.740
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 1; 43
Vegas Line: LSU by 1; 49
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+1); Under

SATURDAY, JANUARY 8

Game 265-266: Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 89.633; Pittsburgh 94.533
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 59
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 9

Game 267-268: Boston College vs. Nevada (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 89.920; Nevada 97.502
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Nevada by 10; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+10); Under

MONDAY, JANUARY 10

Game 269-270: Oregon vs. Auburn (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 112.101; Auburn 177.576
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Auburn by 3; 74
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-3); Over

 
Posted : December 14, 2010 10:44 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Handicapping the Bowl Games
By Marc Lawrence

Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing – preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2010 College Bowl season now upon us it’s time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist one simple element is often overlooked and that is how teams are or have been performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.

As handicappers we know better than most that the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray it’s vitally important to look inside the patient before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall or most recently this season…

Air Force – 11-1 ITS this season
Alabama – 11-1 ITS this season
Arizona – 10-2 ITS this season
Arkansas – 9-2-1 ITS this season
Army – 0-4 ITS L4 games season
Auburn – 12-1 ITS this season
Baylor – 1-3 ITS L4 games season
Boise State – 11-1 ITS this season
Boston College – 5-1 ITS L6 games season
BYU – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
Central Florida – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Clemson – 4-7 ITS this season
Connecticut – 1-6 ITS L7 games season
East Carolina –1-4 ITS L5 games season
Florida – held 4 foes season low yards
Florida International – 8-4 ITS this season
Florida State – 1-4 ITS L5 games season
Fresno State – 11-1 ITS this season
Georgia – 1-4 ITS L5 games season
Georgia Tech – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Hawaii – 11-2 ITS this season
Illinois – held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards
Iowa – 0-3 ITS L3 games season
Kansas State – 0-6 ITS L6 games season
Kentucky – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
LSU –held 3 foes season low yards
Louisville – 8-4 ITS this season
Maryland – 5-7 ITS this season
Miami Fla – 7-0 ITS L7 games season
Miami Oh – 5-0 ITS L5 games season
Michigan – allowed 4 teams season high yards
Michigan State – 10-2 ITS this season
Mid Tennessee State – 2-6 ITS L8 games season
Mississippi State – 3-3 ITS L6 games season
Missouri – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Navy – 4-5 ITS L9 games season
Nebraska – held 6 foes 1-2 season low yards
Nevada – 10-3 ITS this season
North Carolina – 8-4 ITS this season
NC State – 3-3 ITS L6 games season
Northern Illinois – 10-3 ITS this season
Northwestern – 1-3 ITS L4 games season
Notre Dame – 4-2 ITS L6 games season
Ohio State – held 10 foes 1-2 season low yards
Ohio U – 4-8 ITS this season
Oklahoma – held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards
Oklahoma State – 9-3 ITS this season
Oregon – 11-1 ITS this season
Penn State – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
Pittsburgh – 9-0 ITS L9 games season
San Diego State – 5-1 ITS L6 games season
SMU – 8-1 ITS L9 games season
South Carolina – 8-4 ITS this season
South Florida – 2-6 ITS L8 games season
Southern Miss – 9-3 ITS this season
Stanford – 10-2 ITS this season
Syracuse – 1-6 ITS L7 games season
TCU – 12-0 ITS this season
Tennessee – 4-0 ITS L4 games season
Texas A&M – 9-3 ITS this season
Texas El Paso – 1-5 ITS L6 games season
Texas Tech – allowed 3 teams season high yards
Toledo – 4-2 ITS L6 games season
Troy – 8-4 ITS this season
Tulsa – 9-3 ITS this season
Utah – 9-3 ITS this season
Virginia Tech – held 5 foes season low yards
Washington – 3-0 ITS L3 games season
West Virginia – held 6 foes 1-2 low yards
Wisconsin – 10-2 ITS this season

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 539-93-10 ATS since 1980, it’s crucial to your success when evaluating a team’s chance of winning the yardage wars.

 
Posted : December 15, 2010 11:01 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

Historically Speaking Trends
By: Nelly's Sportsline

UTEP is 17-11 in the last 28 games as double-digit dogs
BYU is 5-10 in the last 15 as double-digit favorites

Northern Illinois is 7-1-1 in the last nine as favorites
Fresno State is 40-29 as dogs since 1997

Ohio is 9-16-3 as dogs of less than 7 since 1998
Troy is 2-7 as favorites this season

Louisville is 5-0 vs. Southern Miss since 1999
Southern Miss is 20-30-1 as dogs since 1997

Utah is 26-16 as double-digit underdogs since 1982
Boise State is 18-11 as favorites of -10 to -20

Navy is 11-3 in the last 14 games as dogs
San Diego State is 12-23-2 as non-home favorites

Tulsa is 16-27-2 as double-digit dogs since 1997
Hawaii is 18-11 as double-digit favorites since 2005

Florida International is 3-7 in the last ten as dogs
Toledo is 10-5 in the last 15 as favorites

Georgia Tech is 11-5 as underdogs since 2007
Air Force is 11-6 in bowls since 1982

NC State is 21-8-1 in the last 30 as dogs
West Virginia is 4-15 in bowls since 1982

Missouri is 2-6 in the last eight neutral site games
Iowa is 8-3 in bowls since 1995

East Carolina is 12-6 as dogs of 7 or more since 2006
Maryland is 8-20 as favorites since 2004

Illinois is 2-8 in the last ten neutral site games
Baylor is 17-6 in the last 23 as favorites

Arizona is 10-5 in the last 15 as underdogs
Oklahoma State is 45-21-1 as favorites since 1999

Army is 4-12 in neutral site games since 1997
SMU is 4-15 in the last 19 as favorites

Kansas State is 1-6 in bowls since 1998
Syracuse is 9-4 in bowls since 1988

North Carolina is 16-27 as favorites since 2001
Tennessee is 2-6 in the last eight as dogs

Washington is 4-1 in the last five as double-digit dogs
Nebraska is 2-11 in the last 13 as double-digit favorites

South Florida is 12-8 in the last 20 as underdogs
Clemson is 1-4 in the last five bowl games

Notre Dame is 1-7 in bowl games since 1997
Miami, FL is 8-4 in bowl games since 1996

Central Florida is 7-2 in the last nine as dogs
Georgia is 12-4 in bowl games since 1991

Florida State is 18-9-2 in bowl games since 1981
South Carolina is 4-7 in bowls since 1980

Northwestern is 14-9 in the last 23 as dogs of seven or more
Texas Tech is 29-21-1 as favorites of seven or more since 2002

Penn State is 16-8 in bowl since 1980
Florida is 24-10-1 in the last 35 as favorites of 7 or more

Michigan State is 30-20-1 as double-digit dogs since 1980
Alabama is 13-5 in the last 18 as double-digit favorites

Michigan is 4-11 in the last 15 as underdogs
Mississippi State is 5-9 in the last 14 as favorites

TCU is 6-9 as favorites of less than 3 since 1980
Wisconsin is 7-4 a bowl underdogs since 1994

Connecticut is 16-10 as dogs of 14 or more since 2000
Oklahoma is 3-9 in bowls since 1994

Virginia Tech is 18-7 in the last 25 as underdogs
Stanford is 0-3 as bowl favorites since 1991

Arkansas is 11-3-1 in the last 15 as underdogs
Ohio State is 6-2 in the last eight bowls

MTSU is 5-9 in the last 14 as underdogs
Miami, OH is 2-11-1 as favorites since 2006

Texas A&M is 5-0 S/U vs. LSU since 1991
LSU is 10-5 in bowls since 1987

Kentucky is 5-2 as bowl underdogs since 1983
Pittsburgh is 4-8 in bowls since 1983

Boston College is 0-4 in bowls since 2006
Nevada is 27-14 as favorites of 7 or more since 1999

Oregon is 24-12 as underdogs since 2000
Auburn is 13-4 as favorites of less than 6 since 2002

 
Posted : December 15, 2010 11:35 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

College Football Bowl Game Trends:

Saturday, Dec. 18

New Mexico Bowl -UTEP (6-6) vs. BYU (6-6), 2 p.m. (ESPN)

BYU is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on a neutral site while UTEP is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a cover in their last game.

Humanitarian Bowl - Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4), 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Northern Illinois is 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games on a neutral site while Fresno State has covered in their last four bowl games as an underog.

New Orleans Bowl - Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Ohio is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as an underdog while Troy is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Mid-American Conference.

Tuesday, Dec. 21

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - Louisville (6-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (8-4), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 meetings against Southern Miss while the Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Wednesday, Dec. 22

MAACO Bowl - Utah (10-2) vs. Boise State (11-1), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Utah is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 bowl games while Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December.

Thursday, Dec. 23

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State (8-4) vs. Navy (8-3), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Navy is 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 games against the Mountain West Conference while San Diego State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover.

Friday, Dec. 24

Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii (10-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Hawaii has covered the spread in their last 7 home games while Tulsa is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Sunday, Dec. 26

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Toledo (8-4) vs. Florida International (6-6), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Toledo is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favorite while Florida International is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a failed cover.

Monday, Dec. 27

Independence Bowl - Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4), 5 p.m. (ESPN2)

Air Force is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 non-conference games while Georiga Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Tuesday, Dec. 28

Champs Sports Bowl - North Carolina State (8-4) vs. West Virginia (9-3), 6:30 p.m. (ESPN)

N.C. State is 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games after a loss while West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a favorite.

Insight Bowl - Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5), 10 p.m. (ESPN)

Missouri is 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games in December while Iowa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.

Wednesday, Dec. 29

Military Bowl - East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-4), 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)

East Carolina is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 non-conference games while Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Texas Bowl - Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6), 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Illinois is 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog while Baylor is 1-4 ATS int heir last 5 games overall.

Alamo Bowl - Arizona (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (10-2), 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Arizona is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a loss while Oklahoma State is 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 3.5-to-10 points.

Thursday, Dec. 30

Armed Forces Bowl - SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-5), Noon (ESPN)

SMU is just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against Independent teams while Army is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents.

Pinstripe Bowl - Syracuse (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Syracuse is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a loss while Kansas State has failed to cover in their last 4 bowl games.

Music City Bowl - North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6), 6:40 p.m. (ESPN)

Tennessee has failed to cover in their last 4 games against the ACC while North Carolina has covered in their last four games against SEC opponents.

Holiday Bowl - Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6), 10 p.m. (ESPN)

Nebraska is 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 non-conference games while Washington is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a cover.

Friday, Dec. 31

Meineke Bowl - Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5), Noon (ESPN)

South Florida is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 against the ACC while the Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Sun Bowl - Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (7-5), 2 p.m. (CBS)

Notre Dame is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog while Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight up loss.

Liberty Bowl - Georgia (6-6) vs. UCF (10-3), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Georgia is just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record while Central Florida is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.

Chick-fil-A Bowl - South Carolina (9-4) vs. Florida State (9-4), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

South Carolina is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at a neutral site while Florida State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.

Saturday, Jan. 1

TicketCity Bowl - Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5), Noon (ESPNU)

Arizona is 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games and Texas Tech is currently 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on fieldturf.

Capital One Bowl - Michigan State (11-1) vs. Alabama (9-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Alabama is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games following a loss while Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a victory.

Outback Bowl - Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5), 1 p.m. (ABC)

Florida is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games at a neutral site while Penn State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 8 games out of conference.

Gator Bowl - Michigan (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Michigan has covered the spread in their last 6 non-conference games while Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover.

Rose Bowl - TCU (12-0) vs. Wisconsin (11-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN)

Wisconsin is just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against the Mountain West Conference while TCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Fiesta Bowl - Connecticut (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Oklahoma is 0-4 against the spread in their last four bowl games while Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underog.

Monday, Jan. 3

Orange Bowl - Stanford (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Stanford is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a win while Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Tuesday, Jan. 4

Sugar Bowl - Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Arkansas is just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 bow games while Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.

Thursday, Jan. 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl - Miami (Ohio) (9-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Miami is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games while Middle Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Friday, Jan. 7

Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M (9-3) vs. LSU (10-2), 8 p.m. (FOX)

Texas A&M is 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 neutral site games while LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Saturday, Jan. 8

BBVA Compass Bowl - Pittsburgh (7-5) vs. Kentucky (6-6), Noon (ESPN)

Pittsburgh is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 bowl games while Kentucky is 12-3-1 in their last 16 non-conference games.

Sunday, Jan. 9

Fight Hunger Bowl - Boston College (7-5) vs. Nevada (12-1), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Boston College is 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 neutral site games while Nevada is 1-4 AS in their last 5 bowl games.

Monday, Jan. 10

BCS National Championship - Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Auburn has covered in 6 of their last 7 games while Oregon is just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

 
Posted : December 17, 2010 9:21 pm
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Bowl Specific Trends

New Orleans Bowl- 4-0 OVER L4

Las Vegas- 1-3 UNDER L4

Poinsettia- Fav is 2-910 ATS L12

Hawaii Bowl- 8-2 OVER L10

Meineke Car Care- Fav is 6-1 SU L7

Emerald- Fav is 2-5 ATS L7

Music City - Dog is 9-3 SU,ATS L12 / 2-7 UNDER L8

Independance - 4-2 OVER L6 / SEC is 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS L13

Champs - Fav is 7-2 SU L9

Humanitarian - Fav is 7-2 SU L9

Armed Forces - Fav is 5-2 SU,ATS L6 / 2-5 UNDER L7

Sun - Dog is 13-2 ATS L15

Texas -Fav is 3-1 ATS L4 / 0-4 UNDER L4

Insight -11-3 OVER L14 / Dog is 9-4 ATS L13

Chick-fil-A -Fav is 4-12 ATS L16

Outback -Dog is 8-3 ATS L11

Capital One -Big 10 is 5-1 SU L6

Gator -Fav is 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS L14

Rose Bowl -Fav is 11-5 ATS L16

Sugar -Fav is 10-3 ATS L13

International -Fav is 4-0 SU L4 / 3-1 OVER L4

Papajohns - 0-4 UNDER L4

Cotton - 3-12 UNDER

Liberty -4-14 UNDER L18

Alamo -Dog is 6-3 ATS L9 / Big 10 is 10-5 ATS L15

Fiesta - Better SU record is 10-2 ATS

Orange - Home team is 13-5 ATS

GMAC -CUSA is 2-6 SU,ATS L8 / Fav is 7-0 ATS L7

Little Ceasers- 3-8 UNDER L11

BCS Championship- Fav is 3-1 ATS L4, 3-1 OVER L4

 
Posted : December 17, 2010 9:22 pm
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Conference Specific Trends

ACC

1) The ACC is 17-1 SU vs opp who allows 28.5>pts/gm on season

2) The ACC is 26-11 SU as fav/dog 6

3) The ACC is 1-6 SU,ATS as favs vs opp off SU fav loss

4) The ACC is 12-1 ATS dogs off L

Big East

1) The Big East is 28-8 SU vs opp who allows 23>pts/gm

2) The Big East is 3-15 SU, 4-14 ATS as dogs of 4.5 or more

3) The Big East is 3-10 ATS vs opp off L

Big 10

1) The Big 10 is 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS vs opp who allow 28>pts/gm

2) The Big 10 is 1-6 ATS favs 2>pts vs opp off BB su,ats W

Big 12

1) The Big 12 is 35-9 SU, 28-16 ATS vs opp who allow 25>pts/gm

2) The Big 12 is 12-4 ATS as dogs 3>pts vs opp off BB Wins

3) The Big 12 is 5-18 ATS as favs off ATS loss

4) The Big 12 is 6-18 ATS as favs of 7 or more

Pac 10

1) The Pac 10 is 14-1 ATS as DOGS off su,ats Loss

2) The Pac 10 is 17-4 L17 gms as dogs

3) The Pac 10 is 4-13 ATS as favs 6>pts

4) The Pac 10 is on a run of 51-22 ATS L73 bowl games

5) Pac 10 dogs vs opp off DD win that scored 30>pts in that win are 16-1 ATS

6) The Pac 10 is 17-4 ATS vs Big 10

7) The Pac 10 is 0-9 ATS vs WAC

SEC

1) The SEC is 31-5 SU vs opp who allow 27>pts/gm

2) The SEC is 16-4 ATS as dogs 10

3) The SEC is 17-8 SU, 19-6 ATS, 8-28 UNDER L18 bowls as DOGS

4) SEC favs w/ win % of .750< are 10-20 ATS

5) The SEC is 15-4 ATS as dogs of 4.5 or more

6) The SEC is 1-11 ATS as Favs off BB L

MAC

1) The MAC is 13-8 ATS off Win

2) The MAC is 11-8 ATS as dogs 7>pts

3) The MAC is 23-3 SU, 19-7 ATS as Favs

4) The MAC is 0-15 SU, 2-13 ATS as Dogs

CUSA

1) The CUSA is 8-4 ATS vs opp off su,ats Loss

2) The CUSA is 3-14 ATS off DD W vs opp off Win

3) The CUSA is 24-6 SU, 19-11 ATS as FAVS in L30 bowl gms

4) The CUSA is 3-16 SU, 4-15 ATS as dogs of 7 or less

5) The CUSA is 0-11 SU, 2-8-1 ATS vs BCS conf teams

6) The CUSA is 5-18 UNDER vs MAC and MWC conf

MWC

1) The MWC is 24-13 ATS L37 bowls

Independants

1) 11-1 SU,10-2 ATS L12 bowls as FAVS, 3-10 SU,4-9 ATS L12 as DOGS

WAC

1) The WAC is 15-3 ATS as dogs 4>pts off BB Wins

2) The Wac is 0-10 ATS as neutral site FAVS

3) The Wac is 2-11 ATS as favs if allowed 35>pts last gm

4) The Wac is 21-13 OVER , 13-21 ATS L34 Bowl gms

 
Posted : December 17, 2010 9:23 pm
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Team Specific Trends

Boston College- 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS L12, has not allowed more than 25>pts in L10 bowl gms.

Utah- 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS L7 / 4-7 UNDER L11

Wake Forest- 5-1 SU,ATS L6

Fresno St- Dog is 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS in Frenso bowls, Fresno is 0-5 SU,ATS as favs

Georgia- 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, Have scored between 24-44pts in 13 of 14 bowl gms.

ND- 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS L10

Louisville- 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS L9

WV- 5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS L14 / 9-1 OVER L10

N.Mexico- 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS L6

Purdue- 2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS L8

K.State- 1-6 ATS L7

Oregon- Dog is 8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS L11

UCLA- 4-8 SU L12

Alabama- 3-6 ATS L9

Michigan- 9-1 OVER L10

Texas- 8-3 OVER L11

Florida- 8-3 OVER L11

California- 8-0 OVER L8

G.Tech- 6-1 OVER L7

Arizona 0-6 UNDER L6

Ariz St.- 2-7 UNDER L9

Oklahoma- 4-9 UNDER L13, 1-6 ATS L7

Auburn 1-7 UNDER L8, 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS L6

Penn St- 1-9 UNDER L10, 10-3 SU L13

Florida St- 5-0 ATS, 5-1 OVER, Avg 34ppg L5 bowls

LSU- 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS

Navy- 7-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER, Avg 33ppg L6 bowls

Miss- 8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS, Dogs are 5-1 ATS in Miss bowls

Oreg St- 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS

Ark- 3-7 SU, ATS , 0-6 UNDER L6

BYU- Fav is 7-1 ATS in BYU bowls, 3-9 UNDER L12

Cincy- 1-7 ATS, 2-6 UNDER L8

N.Western- 0-7 SU L7

Texas A&M- 1-8 SU L9

Hou- Fav is 6-1 SU in Hou Bowls

E.Car- Dogs are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS in ECU Bowls

Clemson- 2-10 UNDER L12

Stanford- 1-7 UNDER L8

 
Posted : December 17, 2010 9:23 pm
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BOWL TALE OF THE TAPE
By Marc Lawrence

One time-tested theory that holds up well during the post-season is isolating teams and how they fared in games this campaign against winning opposition.

It's one thing to make your mark against stone-cold losers. It's another to be able to go toe-to-toe against winners.

Listed below is a breakdown of 2010 bowlers that fared well against teams that owned a winning record at the time of their meeting this season.

Here are the teams that were winners on both sides of the SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) ledgers against winning teams this season. Check it out:

Arkansas 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS
Auburn 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS
Boise State 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS
Connecticut 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
Hawaii 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
Michigan State 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS
Missouri 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS
Navy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS
NC State 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS
Northern Illinois 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS
Ohio State 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS
Ohio U 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS
Oklahoma 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS
Oklahoma State 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS
Pittsburgh 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
South Carolina 5-3 SU and 5-3 ATS
TCU 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS
Texas A&M 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS
Tulsa 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS
Virginia Tech 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS
West Virginia 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS
Wisconsin 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS

On the flip side are the 2010 bowlers that struggled both SU and ATS in games against winning teams this season. They include:

Arizona 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS
Army 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS
East Carolina 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS
Florida 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS
Georgia 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS
Georgia Tech 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
Kansas State 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS
Louisville 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
Michigan 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS
Mississippi State 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
Penn State 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS
SMU 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
South Florida 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS
Texas Tech 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
Washington 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS

 
Posted : December 20, 2010 12:00 pm
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Bowl Tech Trends, Part I
By Bruce Marshall

NAVY at SAN DIEGO STATE (Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23)...
Aztecs in first bowl since '98 and haven't won a bowl game 1969. Navy 5-1 vs. line last 6 bowl games. Mids 44-22 vs. spread away from Annapolis since 2002, and have covered last five as road dog since a year ago. Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.

TULSA at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24)...
Hawaii 7-0 vs. line at Aloha Stadium this season and covered 11 of 13 overall on board in 2012. Warriors just 2-3 vs. spread in this bowl game since '03, however. Tulsa covered 7 of its last 8 games this season and has covered in 3 of 4 bowl tries since 2005. Tech edge-slight to Hawaii, based on home field edge.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. TOLEDO (Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 26)...Note that these two are familiar with one another, having met in '08-09, with road dog winning outright both times (FIU in '08, Toledo in '09). This is Golden Panthers' first-ever bowl game. FIU had been just 6-13 vs. line away from home until covering 4 of 7 on road this season. Toledo "bowling" for first time since the Tom Amstutz era in 2005, note Rockets played much better away from home this season when covering 4 of 6, opposed to the past three years with 5-12 spread mark away. MAC teams, however, 0-10 vs. line in bowls the past two seasons. Tech edge-slight to FIU, based on MAC bowl negatives.

GEORGIA TECH vs. AIR FORCE (Independence Bowl, Dec. 27)...Paul Johnson again faces Air Force, note that he won and covered five straight vs. the Falcons from 2003-07 while still at Navy. Only in '07 was against Troy Calhoun, however. Johnson's bowl mark has not been special, however (3-3 vs. line, including failures the past two years with GT), although Johnson did fashion another positive spread mark as dog (3-2, now 8-4 in role at GT, and his teams are now 22-10 their last 32 as short). Force covered only 2 of last 9 games TY, and 1 of last 5 on road. Tech edge-Georgia Tech, based on team and Paul Johnson trends.

NC STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 28)...Tom O'Brien excellent throughout career in bowls, with 7-1 spread mark in eight previous tries with Boston College and NC State. Wolfpack was also 9-3 vs. line this season, and O'Brien 28-13 vs. number last 41 on board with NCS. Pack also 5-1 as dog TY, now 13-5 in role for O'Brien. Stew had a fine spread season as well, 7-2-1 last 10 on board TY, and covered 5 of last 7 as chalk, although he had dropped 16 of 22 spread decisions as chalk previously. Stew 0-2 as bowl chalk, and Mounties 0-4 as bowl chalk since '02. Tech edge-NCS, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. IOWA (Insight Bowl, Dec. 28)...Kirk Ferentz has been a decent bowl coach the past few years, covering last 3 and 5 of last 6, winning four of those outright. But after covering 18 of previous 26 games, Iowa stumbled down stretch, only 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 vs. line last six this season. Mizzou no covers in its last two bowls, nothing too pronounced about its recent spread patterns. Note Tigers "under" 10 of last 13 since late '09. Tech edge-slight to Iowa and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

EAST CAROLINA vs. MARYLAND (Military Bowl, Dec. 29)...
ECU's Ruffin McNeill stumbled down the stretch, losing 4 and failing to cover of his last 5 games while allowing 42 or more in each of those outings. No surprise that Pirates "over" 9-2-1 this season. ECU was 4-4 as dog TY after Skip Holtz fashioned a 23-9 mark as short the previous five years. Terps 4-1 vs. line as chalk TY after 3-15 mark previous five years in role. Maryland 4-2 vs. line in bowls in the soon-to-conclude Friedgen era, and Terps covered 5 of last 6 TY. Maryland "over" 7-4-1 in '10. Tech edge-"Over" and ECU, based on team and "totals" trends.

ILLINOIS vs. BAYLOR (Texas Bowl, Dec. 29)...
Neither Ron Zook nor Art Briles has ever won a bowl game, both 0-3 SU in postseason. Baylor collapsed down the stretch with losses and non-covers in last three. Illini "over" 9-5 last 14 since late '09, Bears "over" 7-3-1 TY. Neither of these two have won a bowl game in this millennium; this is Baylor's first bowl since '94, Illini hasn't won a bowl since '99 vs. Virginia in the old Micron PC Bowl (remember that one?) in Miami. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

ARIZONA vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29)...OSU a solid 9-3 vs. line in 2010 and 8-2 as chalk this season. Mike Gundy, however, has lost last two bowls after winning first two tries in '06 & '07. Cats making third straight bowl trip for Mike Stoops (1-1 SU and vs. line last two), but UA struggled down stretch, dropping last 4 SU and 7 of last 9 vs. line. Both of these teams were "over" 8-4 this season. Tech edge-Oklahoma State and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARMY at SMU (Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 30)...June Jones covered 3 of last 4 as chalk TY but note Ponies were 1-14 in role their previous 15 as chalk, extending back into the Phil Bennett era. SMU 3-3 vs. line at home TY but just 7-15 in role since '07 (Jones arrived in '08, 7-9 since). West Point making first bowl appearance since '96 Independence vs. Auburn, and Black Knights dropped 4 of last 5 vs. points TY. Army 3-4 as dog TY and just 6-9 in role for Ellerson since LY. Tech edge-Army, based on extended SMU chalk negatives.

KANSAS STATE vs. SYRACUSE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30)...
During his first K-State stint, Bill Snyder faced Syracuse and Paul Pasqualoni twice in bowls and split those two SU and vs. line. 'Cuse covered 5 of 6 away from Carrier Dome this season, though Wildcats 4-2 vs. points on road TY, and Snyder 7-3 vs. line last 10 in role. K-State on 4-game bowl spread losing streak dating to '01. Tech edge-slight to K-State, based on extended mark away from home.

NORTH CAROLINA vs. TENNESSEE (Music City Bowl, Dec. 30)...
Butch Davis an impressive 6-0 vs. line in bowls. Tar Heels, however, dropped 5 of last 6 vs. line this season. Meanwhile, UT closed with a rush, wins in last four and covers in last five this season. Note Vols also "over" 13-4 dating to mid '09 ("over" 8-3 in 2010). Tech edge-UT and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON vs. NEBRASKA (Holiday Bowl, Dec. 30)...Rematch of lopsided 56-21 Nebraska win at Seattle back on Sept. 16. Huskers have won and covered their bowls the past two seasons, and Bo Pelini 3-0 vs. line in bowls (4-0 in postseason, counting Big XII title games). U-Dub won and covered last three TY but had dropped 7 of 9 vs. line previously. Sarkisian just 2-5 as dog TY. Huskies making first bowl appearance since Neuheisel days in 2002 (lost in Sun that year vs. Purdue). Tech edge-Nebraska, based on team trends.

 
Posted : December 20, 2010 2:08 pm
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Conference Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall

Conference bowl pointspread performances are apt to fluctuate from year to year, but sometimes they don't (case in point, the MAC's 0-10 bowl spread mark the past two seasons). Whatever, they are part of the bowl handicapping exercise. And with that in mind, we're providing a review of how respective conferences have performed vs. the pointspread in postseason play since the early '70s, with added emphasis on results recorded in recent campaigns.

ACC... Nice stabilization the past two years for the ACC, which has covered 11 of 17 bowls since 2008 after a combined 4-10 bowl spread mark in 2006-07. From 2001-05, loop teams were a combined 21-11 vs. the number in bowls. This season— Georgia Tech (Independence), NC State (Champs Sports), Maryland (Military). North Carolina (Music City), Clemson (Meineke Car Care), Miami-Florida (Sun), Florida State (Chick fil-A), Virginia Tech (Orange), Boston College (Kraft).

Big East... The loop, which once relied upon Miami-Florida (since departed for ACC) to provide its bowl glitz, has mostly held its own even without the Canes, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, generally hanging around the .500 mark since, as it did with a 3-3 mark a year ago. This season—Louisville (Beef O'Brady's), West Virginia (Champs Sports), Syracuse (Yankee Pinstripe), South Florida (Meineke Car Care), UConn (Fiesta), Pitt (BBVA Compass).

Big Ten... Big Ten bowl teams bounced back to cover 4 of 6 tries a year ago after back-to-back losing efforts in 2007 & '08. Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since '07, while Ohio State will look to end its 0-7 bowl drought vs. SEC foes when facing Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, can Northwestern get its first bowl win since 1949 when facing Texas Tech in the Dallas/TicketCity Classic? This season—Iowa (Insight), Illinois (Texas), Northwestern (Dallas TicketCity), Penn State (Outback), Michigan State (Capital One), Michigan (Gator), Wisconsin (Rose), Ohio State (Sugar).

Big XII... Another disappointing run for Big XII "bowlers" last season, dropping 5 of 8 spread decisions. The league has had more than a few clunker bowl campaigns in recent memory (besides last season, note a 2-6 mark in '06, and Big XII teams also covered only 4 of 15 bowl chances between 2003-04). Since the league was officially formed in '96 (an amalgamation of the old Big 8 with four former SWC schools), Big XII teams stand only 42-60 vs. the line in postseason play, continuing a trend from the old Big Eight, which was also a notorious bowl underachiever. No Texas "bowling" this year for the first time since 1997. This season—Missouri (Insight), Baylor (Texas), Oklahoma State (Alamo), Kansas State (Yankee Pinstripe), Nebraska (Holiday),Texas Tech (Dallas TicketCity), Oklahoma (Fiesta), Texas A&M (Cotton).

Conference USA... We've seen various facelifts in the brief but colorful history of C-USA, which has provided a home for various former gridiron nomads, many of whom having campaigned for years as independents or in other non-BCS leagues. Its teams have generally held their own in bowls over the years, with a 29-28 bowl spread mark since its inception. This season—UTEP (New Mexico), Southern Miss (Beef O'Brady's), Tulsa (Hawaii), East Carolina (Military), SMU (Armed Forces), UCF (Liberty).

Mountain West... Enjoy the current Mountain West while you can; next year, Utah (to the new Pac-12) and BYU (going indy) are gone, while TCU leaves for the Big East in 2012. Joining up will be Boise State next year and Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada in 2012. Got that? Before the changes, note the Horned Frogs' upcoming Rose Bowl trip. MWC reps were also a solid 4-1 vs. the line in bowls a year ago. This season—BYU (New Mexico), Utah (Las Vegas), San Diego State (Poinsettia), Air Force (Independence), TCU (Rose).

Pacific 10... The Pac-10 had been making lots of noise in 2007-08, covering 9 of 11 bowl chances in those years (including a spotless 5-0 straight-up mark in '08) before slipping a bit last season to a 3-4 bowl spread mark. This year, the combination of Southern Cal's probation, plus two BCS teams (Oregon & Stanford), meant the league was scrambling to fill other bowl slots, three of which it couldn't accommodate. Add it up, and there's only four bowl reps for the Pac this season. This season—Arizona (Alamo), Washington (Holiday), Stanford (Orange), Oregon (BCS title game).

Southeastern... The SEC slipped a bit last season, dropping five of nine bowl spread decisions, but nonetheless crowned its fourth straight BCS title cover and winner (Alabama). Auburn tries to make it five straight title wins for the SEC in this year's championship game, January 10, vs. Oregon. SEC teams are 48-31 vs. the line in bowls since '99. This season—Tennessee (Music City), Georgia (Liberty), South Carolina (Chick fil-A), Florida (Outback), Alabama (Capital One), Mississippi State (Gator), Arkansas (Sugar), LSU (Cotton), Kentucky (BBVA Compass), Auburn (BCS title game).

WAC... We might not be giving the WAC much space in future conference reviews, as the league prepares to lose key members Boise State (next year), plus Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada thereafter. What happens to future bowl tie-ins with games such as the Humanitarian and Hawaii Bowls, longtime WAC staples, remains to be seen. And a bittersweet end to things this season, with Boise's loss to Nevada robbing the league of its potential fourth BCS slot in the past five campaigns. This season—Fresno State (Humanitarian), Boise State (Las Vegas), Hawaii (Hawaii), Nevada (Kraft).

MAC, Sun Belt, independents, & others... A once-robust collection of Independents has basically dwindled to a few, but we have more "indy bowlers" this season than any year in recent memory with Army (Armed Forces) "bowling" for the first time since 1996, joining Navy (Poinsettia) and Notre Dame (Sun). Interestingly, their collective numbers are still the best for the most-extended periods of measurement, although that's nothing more than a curiosity these days, with almost all indies having joined a conference in the last 20 years. Big West & MAC champs met annually from 1981 thru ’96 in California/California Raisin (thru ’91) and Las Vegas (‘92-96) Bowls. Big West was 8-6 vs. line in bowls from ‘87-2000 but no longer competes in football, its old gridiron members now in the WAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt. MAC teams have dropped all ten bowl spread decisions since 2008. This year the MAC has five "bowlers"—Northern Illinois (Humanitarian), Ohio (New Orleans), Toledo (Little Caesars), and Miami-Ohio (GoDaddy.com). The Sun Belt was 2-0 vs. the line in bowls last year and stands 7-6 vs. the line in postseason since 2001; this season Troy (New Orleans) and Middle Tennessee (GoDaddy.com) make it into the bowl lineup.

 
Posted : December 23, 2010 11:20 am
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Bowl Tech Trends, Part II
By Bruce Marshall

SOUTH FLORIDA vs. CLEMSON (Meineke Car Care Bowl, Dec. 31)... "Unders" prevalent both ways this season (Clemson "under" 10-2, USF "under" 8-3). Skip Holtz 3-3 as dog TY but is 26-12 in role since '05 with ECU. Clemson had dropped four straight bowl spread decisions prior to narrow win over Kentucky LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to USF, based on "totals" and team trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. MIAMI-FLORIDA (Sun Bowl, December 31)...These two haven't met since 1990. Note that Brian Kelly yet to cover a bowl game (0-2), as he has missed a couple of them by skipping out early on past jobs. Irish had dropped 7 straight bowl spread decisions prior to Hawaii Bowl win in '08. Note Kelly is 15-2 vs. line last 17 as dog dating to '06 at CMU, however. Canes only 1-3 vs. points last four bowls. ND "under" 9-3 TY, Miami "under" 8-3-1 in 2010. Tech edge-Notre Dame and "under," based on Kelly trends.

UCF vs. GEORGIA (Liberty, Dec. 31)...Mark Richt very good lately in bowls, has won and covered last four. Richt 7-2 all-time SU in bowls as well. Dawgs, however, just 1-5 vs. line away from Athens TY. O'Leary 2-5 SU, 3-4 vs. line in bowls, and has failed to win or cover the last two. Golden Knights are 19-6 vs. line overall the past two seasons, and O'Leary 13-6 as dog since '07. Tech edge-Georgia, based on Richt bowl trends.

FLORIDA STATE vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Chick fil-A, Dec. 31)...Spurrier has lost and failed to cover last two bowls, and is just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls since taking over Gamecocks in '05. Spurrier is 6-2 vs. spread last 8 against non-SEC foes, however. Surprisingly, FSU 5-0-1 vs. line last six bowls, as Bowden did do something right his last few years in charge. Jimbo bowl debut, although note Noles only 2-5 last 7 vs. line TY. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent Spurrier bowl mark.

NORTHWESTERN vs. TEXAS TECH (Dallas/TicketCity Bowl, Jan. 1)...NU is 0-7 SU in bowls since Gary Barnett took the '95 Cats to the Rose Bowl, and NU hasn't won a bowl since the 1949 Rose Bowl. Pat Fitzgerald has covered the past two seasons in bowls, but note Cats just 1-8 vs. number their last 9 in 2010, with no covers their last five away from Evanston. Tuberville won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 TY. Tech edge-Texas Tech, based on recent NU negatives.

PENN STATE vs. FLORIDA (Outback Bowl, Jan. 1)...The departing Urban Meyer is 6-1 SU and vs. line in 7 bowls with Utah & Florida. Shades is 24-11-1 SU career-wise in bowls and 23-12-1 vs. spread in bowls, although he's just 3-3 vs. line in postseason the past decade. Shades 2-3 vs. line away TY after 5-0 mark in role in '09. Tech edge-Florida, based on Meyer bowl mark.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. ALABAMA (Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1)...Nick Saban meets a former employer. Dantonio 0-3 SU, 1-2 vs. line in bowls. Spartans also just 4-7 vs. number last 11 vs. non-conference foes. Dantonio just 2-1 as dog TY and 8-8 in role at MSU since arriving in '07. Nick Saban nothing special in bowls throughout career (4-6 SU and vs. line) but Bama has covered 6 straight vs. non-SEC foes, and note SEC teams 16-9 vs. points the past three years in bowls. Tech edge-slight to Bama, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Gator, Jan. 1)...Rodriguez enters having dropped last 8 spread decisions, and he's 10-26 vs. number since arriving at Ann Arbor. Interestingly, he is 7-1 vs. line against non-Big Ten foes the past two seasons. Dan Mullen has covered 6 of last 8 as chalk for MSU. Tech edge-MSU, based on team trends.

TCU vs. WISCONSIN (Rose, Jan. 1)...
Gary Patterson has failed to cover his last two bowls but did cover five previous tries in postseason. TCU also on extended 36-20 spread run last 56 on board. Bielema roared down stretch with six straight wins and covers. Interestingly, Bielema has been a dog in each of his past four bowl games. Bielema was 2-0 as dog TY but just 8-9 overall as dog since taking over in '06. Note Badgers "over" 12-4-1 last 17 since mid '09. Tech edge-slight to TCU and "over," based on extended team and "totals" trends.

UCONN vs. OKLAHOMA (Fiesta, Jan. 1)...Bob Stoops no covers last 4 or 6 of last 7 bowl games. Interestingly, Stoops just 24-23 overall vs. number last 47 on board with Sooners, and just 3-8 his last 11 as road chalk. Randy Edsall covered last 5 TY, including last 4 as dog, and is 11-2 as dog since LY. Edsall has won and covered 3 of 4 bowls as well. Tech edge-UConn, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH vs. STANFORD (Orange, Jan. 3)...Beamer smoked down stretch this season, winning last 11 SU and covering 10 of those. He's also covered his last two bowls, and last two as bowl dog. Beamer also 31-12 vs. spread away from Blacksburg since '04, and 14-7 in rare dog roles since 2000. Harbaugh 7-5 vs. line TY, 4-1 as chalk away from Farm, but Tree hasn't won a bowl since '96, when Ty's second team beat Michigan State 38-0 in Sun Bowl. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.

 
Posted : December 30, 2010 11:29 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

Bowl Tech Trends, Part III
By Bruce Marshall

ARKANSAS vs. OHIO STATE (Sugar, Jan. 4)...Tressel has covered last 2 and 6 of his last 8 bowl games. OSU also 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 TY and was 9-2-1 vs. line in '010, and Tressel 23-5-1 vs. spread last 29 on board. OSU a solid 9-3 vs. line in 2010 and 8-2 as chalk this season. Buckeyes, however, 0-7 SU and vs. line in bowl games vs. SEC since '92, back to the John Cooper regime. Petrino, 11-3 last 14 as dog, and Arkansas just as hot as OSU in 20-10, winning and covering last 6, and 9-1 vs. line last 10 TY. SEC 16-9 vs. line in bowls since '07. Tech edge- Arkansas, based on team and conference trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI-OHIO (GoDaddy.com Bowl, Jan. 6)...MTSU only 4-8 vs. line TY but did win and cover its last two in reg. season. MAC teams 0-10 vs. line in bowls the past two years. Note Miami-O "under" 11-2 TY, and Blue Raiders "under" 8-4 in 2010. Tech edge-"Under" and MTSU, based on "totals" and MAC bowl trends.

TEXAS A&M vs. LSU (Cotton, Jan. 7)...A&M closed hot with wins and covers in its last 6 games. Aggies, however, are 0-3 SU and vs. line against SEC teams (Arkansas & Georgia) the past two seasons. Ags also no wins or covers last 4 bowls dating back to '01 vs. TCU in GalleryFurniture.com Bowl (remember that one?). Les Miles 4-0-1 vs. number in bowls with LSU. Tech edge-LSU, based on recent bowl and A&M vs. SEC history.

KENTUCKY vs. PITTSBURGH (BBVA Compass Bowl, Jan. 8)...'Stache likely to coach this one, and he's 0-2 SU and vs. line last two years in bowls. Meanwhile, UK 3-1 SU its last 4 bowls, although Cats just 1-4 SU and vs. line for Joker Phillips down stretch TY. UK, however, is 12-3 vs. points last 15 vs. non-SEC FBS foes, and Cats 15-6 "over" their last 21 on board. Tech edge-UK and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. NEVADA (Kraft, Jan. 9)...Wolf Pack has lost its last 4 bowls SU and is just 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls since '05. Pack also just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-WAC foes away from Reno. BC, however, has failed to cover its last four bowls since Tom O'Brien departed, although Eagles did cover their last four away from home TY. Spaziani only 5-6 last 11 as dog, and note Eagles also played in this bowl LY. Tech edge-slight to Nevada, based on recent BC bowl woes.

OREGON vs. AUBURN (BCS title game at Glendale, AZ, Jan. 10)...Not much recent bowl history either way, both failed to cover in their bowls LY. Ducks only 4-4 vs. line their last 8 bowls, the same for Auburn. UO only 3-3 vs. line away from home TY, while Auburn 5-1. Tigers also covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 TY. SEC teams have won and covered last 4 BCS title games. Ducks "over" 20-9 last 29 on board, Tigers "over" 16-7 since Gene Chizik took over LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Auburn, based on "totals" and team trends.

 
Posted : January 3, 2011 3:04 pm
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