NCAAF CG Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Monday 1/13/20

NCAAF

Championship

Clemson is 9-2 SU in its last 11 bowl/playoff games (10-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in nine of the 11 games; this is 4th time in last five years they’re playing for national title, winning the title two of last three years. Clemson had been a double digit favorite in every game this season until the Fiesta Bowl, when Ohio State outgained them by 99 yards. Clemson was down 16-0 but rallied to win behind soph QB Lawrence, who is unbeaten (25-0) as a college starter. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Joe Burrow had seven TD passes in his last game….at halftime- they threw for 532 yards in their 63-28 thrashing of Oklahoma. LSU has only three wins this year by less than 14 points- they beat Auburn/Alabama in consecutive games, by 3-5 points, and beat Texas 45-38 back in September. LSU gave up 409 PY to Texas, 418 to Alabama. LSU won four of its last five bowl/playoff games, they won the ’07 national title, lost the ’11 title game. Bayou Bengals are 13-7-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a single digit favorite. Four of their last six games went over.

Underdogs covered the last five national title games, winning three of them SU; New Orleans site obviously favors LSU; Clemson lost Sugar Bowl here to Alabama (24-6) two years ago.
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Hot & Not - Title Game Angles
Matt Blunt

The wait between the semifinals and national title game this year is gigantic, but that's probably exactly how Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney wants it. Can you imagine the type of rhetoric he'd spew if he were in the Big 10, and had just a week to prepare for a ranked Big 10 team like say Michigan, and then followed that up a week later with a game against a ranked Big 10 team like Wisconsin, as Ohio State had to do this year. There is little chance Clemson would even sniff a winning streak like the one they've currently got going, and the absurdities coming out of Swinney's mouth would be hysterical.

Instead, the guy who continually complains his program gets no respect, gets to cruise through a eight-game conference schedule (opposed to nine games for nearly every other conference) in the weakest Power 5 conference there is, and then parlays that into multiple weeks to prepare for Ohio State, and then multiple weeks to prepare LSU in this title game. One, that Clemson may not even be in had they not been given a gift of an overruled fumble return TD that would have likely put the hole they were in against the Buckeyes too deep to come out of...

You've got to give it to Swinney though, as his rhetoric is highly persuasive for those that seemingly can't see through it, and who knows, maybe one day soon we will see either a nine-game ACC schedule for the conference, or multiple ACC teams crack a Top 25 ranking when they face the Tigers in regular season play. That way, Clemson won't spend 75% of their football season feasting on cupcake opponents and can't parlay that into routine playoff appearances and absurd rhetoric from Swinney.

But in the interest of fairness, Clemson did beat who was put in front of them (again, something Swinney has a hand in), and find themselves with a chance to win 30 straight games and be the first college football program to defend their College Football Playoff national title. The breaks they have gotten might be outrageous, but you've still got to be a good football team to get to this point, and Clemson has been here two years in a row.

And while a month ago I did lay out this piece and this piece, outlining past stats and trends to keep in consideration for the CFB Playoffs, it doesn't hurt to do one more now that the two teams playing for the title are set. And in the interest of fairness, I'll outline situations/stats that work both for and against each team involved.

Who's Hot

In favor of LSU – Teams in the National Title game that finished the regular season with a worse turnover margin per game are 5-0 ATS in the championship game during the playoff era

In terms of outright winners, Alabama's the only program to win a national title with a better turnover margin per game then their opponent, as they did so when they beat Georgia and Clemson in this game. But the latter two teams there did cover the spread as underdogs in those games, to go along with Clemson being on the lower end of this stat line in their two national championship wins, as was Ohio State in the inaugural playoff.

This year's game sees Clemson – who finished +1 in turnover margin per game in the regular season – going up against LSU – who finished +0.8 in turnover margin per game in the regular season -puts this historical edge on the side of the Bayou Bengals.

Who knows, maybe it has been a case of the turnovers drying up against elite competition for these strong turnover margin teams, but while the angle of “the Heisman winner never wins the national title” likely getting spewed to death this week, this is an angle that does favor LSU and quarterback Joe Burrow's squad.
In favor of Clemson – National title teams that finished the regular season with more rushing yards per game are 4-1 SU in playoff era
Not only a stat that suggests taking the points with Dabo Swinney's crew, but one that points to them defending their title as well.

College football is something where talent definitely matters, as the better teams have the better players, and because of that, they can often play “bully ball” against lesser foes and just simply beat them by running the ball down their throat. That mantra doesn't necessarily apply to a national title game, but what it does help in this case, is letting the team that's ultimately more confident and more reliant in their running game to establish some rhythm, dictate the tempo, and possibly wear down the will of their foe.

I'm not sure the latter will happen here given that LSU's defense did face stiffer tests on a weekly basis with their SEC schedule, but if Clemson can use their rushing attack (239.1 yards per game in regular season) to sustain long drives and potentially let a layer of rust form on Burrow and that LSU offense, a repeat champion is what we could end up seeing.

Who's Not

In favor of Clemson – Backing the team with a worse opponent yards per play number has you 1-4 SU in national title games during the playoff era

Clemson finished the year tied with Ohio State atop the country in opponent yards per play at 3.7. LSU managed to post a 4.9 opponent yards per play number this year which was 25th in the country. Historically, that's a good spot for Clemson to be in, but I'm not entirely sold on this trend this season as I would have been in year's past. And it speaks to the quality of competition these two teams faced this year as well as how their games played out.

Not only was Clemson able to rack up great defensive numbers against the offensively challenged ACC, but LSU's numbers are likely skewed a bit worse then they should be given how many times they packed it in in the 2nd halves of games they firmly had in control. That's on top of LSU facing much better competition overall. Clemson had plenty of time for their second stringers in games they had firmly in control as well, but even those second stringers were much better then the starters they were up against most of the time in ACC play, so it is what it is for Clemson here.

But the saying “defense wins championships” always has some level of truth to it, and Clemson did hold an Ohio State team that averaged 6.8 yards per play this year to just 5.8 yards per play in that semi-final game. Again, that overturned fumble return completely flipped the momentum of that semi-final game, so who knows how things would have been different if that had stood, but this was info found and something that is a solid piece of supporting evidence for those already looking at the Clemson side. I'm just not sure I'd put that much weight into it this year.

In favor of LSU – National Championship teams that lost the time of possession battle in their semi-final game are 0-2 SU in the title game during the playoff era
Again, another stat that doesn't hold extraordinary weight here, especially since it's only occurred twice – Oregon in 2014 and Georgia in 2017 – and the ATS record for both of those sides is split at 1-1 ATS. It's also something that can be highly relative to the opponent faced in the semis, and without question, Clemson had the harder test in getting by Ohio State, compared to LSU's contest vs Oklahoma.

Clemson did lose the time of possession battle 33:27 to 26:33 in that semi-final game, while LSU won the ball control game against Oklahoma with a 32:58 to 27:02 edge. Every single national champion in the playoff era won the time of possession battle in their respective semi-final game, so for those that may be looking at potential ML plays, this is a check that goes LSU's way.

Final point

Going back to this piece from a month ago, I discussed how every past national champion in the playoff era did finish the regular season with at least 5 ATS defeats. That works in LSU's favor for this game, and let's not forget the second point I made in that ATS record section of that piece:
The team with the best regular season ATS record has been the runner-up in each of the last three years and four of the five playoff seasons overall.
We will have to wait and see if that holds true once again this year, as it would with an LSU outright win. Clemson and their 10-3 ATS record during the season could end up following in the footsteps of those past programs to come up short in this game.

The point-spread is always the great equalizer though, and with this year's number holding relatively steady at LSU -5.5 since it opened, could we see the same scenario that we have in the odd numbered years (as to when season started, not date of title game) of these playoff games in the past – the favorite wins the game outright but the underdog covers....
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NCAAF

Championship

Trend Report

LSU Tigers
Louisiana State is 11-3-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Louisiana State's last 17 games

Clemson Tigers
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 13

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CLEMSON (14 - 0) vs. LSU (14 - 0) - 1/13/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEMSON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEMSON is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAF
Dunkel

Championship

Clemson @ LSU

Game 283-284
January 13, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
126.659
LSU
123.231
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 3 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 6
69
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(+6); Over
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283CLEMSON -284 LSU
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.

283CLEMSON -284 LSU
LSU is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game in the current season.

283CLEMSON -284 LSU
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after going under the total in the current season.
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If you're betting LSU, here are five prop picks you need to take in the CFP Championship
Jason Logan

Clyde Edwards-Helaire picked up 325 receiving yards between Week 9 and the SEC title game, helping the Tigers average 45 points per game in that span.

The LSU Tigers have plenty of supporters heading into Monday’s CFP Championship Game against the Clemson Tigers. In fact, the belief in the Bayou Bengals has taken the spread for the national title game and run it up from LSU -3.5 to as high as -6.

If you’re among the masses shouting “Geaux Tigers” - and not “Go Tigers” - with a ticket on LSU in hand, you’ll want to look at these prop and derivative picks for Monday’s matchup.

They’re all tied to aspects of the game vital to Louisiana State’s championship hopes. Good luck!

LSU -0.5 FIRST QUARTER

Louisiana State is at its best when it kicks in the door and does damage right out of the gate.

The Tigers traded touchdowns with Oklahoma before closing out the first quarter with a 21-7 lead in the Peach Bowl. Against Georgia in the SEC Championship, LSU only needed six minutes to find the end zone and held a 14-0 lead after one frame. And, versus Alabama, the Tigers jumped out to a 10-0 lead and were ahead 10-7 after 15 minutes of action.

Clemson’s defense has been especially stingy in first quarters, allowing an average of just 2.1 points in the frame on the year. However, the Tigers (Clemson, that is) have softened a bit in recent opening quarters, giving up a touchdown to Virginia in the ACC title game and watched Ohio State run out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter of the Fiesta Bowl.

Clemson knows it can’t afford LSU to find a rhythm and get ahead on the scoreboard early, which would force the reigning national champs to pass more and turn away from a run-heavy playbook – which is likely their best “defense” against the LSU offense.

If the Bayou Bengals can buckle Clemson’s knees early on, LSU will have its opponent right where it wants it.

TREVOR LAWRENCE UNDER 52.5 RUSHING YARDS

When Clemson does drop back to pass against a dangerous LSU secondary, Louisiana State can’t let the Tigers off the hook by allowing QB Trevor Lawrence to create something out of nothing when plays break down.

Lawrence sparked Clemson’s comeback against the Buckeyes with 107 yards on the ground, including a 67-yard touchdown run. He’s only gone over this 52.5-yard total just three times all season, but they’ve all gone in the past five games, so Lawrence absolutely has his legs under him.

Louisiana State did a good job containing Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurt to 43 yards rushing on 14 carries (thanks in large part to forcing the Sooners to play from behind) but did get rolled by Ole Miss dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee for 212 yards on the ground in Week 12.

Keep Lawrence contained and don’t let him make magic on broken plays.

CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE OVER 50.5 YARDS RECEIVING

Edwards-Helaire gave Tigers backers a scare in the Peach Bowl, injuring his hamstring in practice a week before the game. And while he was healthy enough to play against Oklahoma, he was limited in action, carrying the ball just twice for 14 yards.

Edwards-Helaire has looked healthy in practice leading up to the CFP Championship, which is good news for LSU bettors. Not only was CEH one of the best running backs in the country down the stretch – posting 686 yards rushing in the final five regular season games – but he became a top target in the passing game as well.

He has 399 yards receiving on 50 grabs and LSU’s offense has been extra explosive when he gets thrown in the mix. He picked up 325 of those receiving yards between Week 9 and the SEC title game, helping the Tigers average 45 points per game in that span, which includes games versus Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia.

If CEH can get loose versus Clemson and break off some big gains after the catch, LSU offense will be extremely tough to figure out.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 8.5 RECEPTIONS

Joe Burrow was the star of the Peach Bowl, but the effort put in by Justin Jefferson should not be discounted. The Tigers junior WR caught 14 balls for 227 yards through the air, with four of those grabs going for touchdowns.

If Ja'Marr Chase is LSU’s No. 1 receiver, then Jefferson has emerged as a verified No. 1-A after catching fire – and everything else – down the stretch of the regular season. He’s scored a touchdown in five straight games (nine total in that span) and has led the Tigers to receiving in both postseason matchups, with 115 yards on seven receptions against UGA.

Clemson is the top-ranked passing defense in all the land but has given up some bigger gains in its past two outings: allowing Ohio State to throw for 320 yards through the air in the Fiesta Bowl and giving up 283 yards passing to Virginia in the ACC Championship.

Clemson will have to pick its poison when it comes to LSU’s receiving options – Chase, Jefferson, TE (and son of Randy) Thaddeus Moss – and Jefferson enters with the hot hands.

JOE BURROW OVER 27.5 COMPLETIONS

Louisiana State winning the CFP title doesn’t hinge on Burrow having a huge day, but it sure as hell would be easier if he did.

The Heisman winner is absolutely burning up opposing defenses and saved his best two performances for the postseason: completing 28 passes for 349 yards and four TDs versus Georgia and connecting on 29 passes for 493 yards and seven TDs against Oklahoma.

As mentioned, Clemson has given very little to opposing passers all season, holding 11 foes to 17 completions or less including six opponents to single-digit completions. They did allow 24 completions for 236 yards in a Week 2 win over Texas A&M and watched both Virginia and Ohio State complete 30 throws in the previous two games.

Burrow has topped this 27.5-completion total six times this season, including five times in LSU’s last seven outings. Books have his Over/Under passing yards at 365.5 for the title game and given his average of about 14 yards per completion, you’re looking at 26 estimated completions versus Clemson.

If Joey Heisman can do two better against this Tigers secondary, then it should be a good day for “Burreaux” and LSU.
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College Playoff Betting Preview
Brian Edwards

Clemson vs. LSU (-6, Total 69)

Louisiana State’s dream season will fittingly end in New Orleans, where it’ll take on Clemson in Monday’s finals of the College Football Playoff. Clemson brings a 29-game winning streak to The Big Easy, attempting to become the first program to repeat as national champions since Alabama did in 2011 and 2012.

Dabo Swinney’s team hasn’t tasted defeat since its last trip to the Mercedes Benz Superdome, losing 24-6 to Alabama in the 2017 CFP semifinals. LSU is seeking its first national title since 2007, when it trounced Ohio State at the Superdome in the Crescent City. In 2003 when Nick Saban was its head coach, LSU won its second national title – its first came back in 1958 -- by beating Oklahoma at this same venue in New Orleans.

As of Sunday night, most betting shops had LSU (14-0 straight up, 9-5 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with the total anywhere from 67.5 (Circa Sports) to 69 (Stations). Clemson was +185 on the money line.

For first-half wagers, most spots had LSU listed as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 34. Clemson has +160 odds to take a lead into halftime and it’s +145 on the money line in the first quarter. LSU is favored by one-half point at a -130 price for first-quarter bets, while the total is 14.5 points.

LSU’s team total for the game is 37.5 points (-115 odds either way), while Clemson’s is 31.5 points (‘under’ -125, ‘over’ -105). LSU’s team total for the first half is 19.5 points (‘over’ -145, ‘under’ +115), and Clemson’s is 14.5 (‘over’ -135, ‘under’ +105).

Ed Orgeron’s squad absolutely blasted fourth-seeded Oklahoma in the semifinals, darting out to a 49-14 halftime lead before coasting to a 63-28 victory as a 12.5-point favorite. The 91 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 75-point total.

Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow was sensational, completing 29-of-39 passes for 493 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception. All seven TD passes came in the first half alone, as Burrow broke every CFP passing record in the game’s first 30 minutes. He added a three-yard TD run early in the third quarter.

Junior wide receiver Justin Jefferson had 14 receptions for 227 yards and four TDs. Junior TE Thaddeus Moss, the son of NFL Hall of Famer Randy Moss, hauled in four catches for 99 yards and one TD, while sophomore WR Terrace Marshall Jr. had six grabs for 80 yards and two TDs.

Redshirt freshman running back Chris Curry ran for a team-best 89 yards on 16 attempts. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the junior RB who was a first-team All-SEC selection, was able to play despite suffering a hamstring injury less than two weeks before the game. He had only two carries for 14 rushing yards, but he’ll be a much bigger factor Monday night vs. Clemson. Edwards-Helaire has had more time to recover and would’ve got more touches against the Sooners if the game hadn’t become a blowout so quickly.

Dave Aranda’s defense had a helluva performance, too, holding the Sooners to 322 yards of total offense. OU came into the game ranking second in the nation in total offense, averaging 554.4 yards per game.

Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase and center Lloyd Cushenberry joined Edwards-Helaire as first-team All-SEC choices by the coaches. LSU’s offensive guards Damien Lewis and Adrian Magee garnered second-team All-SEC honors from the coaches, along with Edwards-Helaire as a return specialist. However, Lewis is listed as ‘questionable’ after vs. Clemson after leaving the win over OU with a knee injury.

LSU’s offense is ranked No. 1 in the country in total offense (564.1 YPG) and scoring with its 48.9 points-per-game average. The Bayou Bengals are No. 2 in passing yards (397.2 YPG), trailing only Washington State.

Burrow has produced video-game stats all year. The grad transfer from Ohio State, who arrived in Baton Rouge just one month before the 2018 season, has completed 77.6 percent of his passes through 14 games. He has thrown for 5,208 yards with a 55/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Burrow has 311 rushing yards and four TDs.

Chase and Jefferson are the nation’s co-leaders in TD catches with 18 apiece. Jefferson is third in the country in both receptions (102) and receiving yards (1,434), while Chase has 75 catches for 1,559 yards. Chase trails only Arkansas State WR Omar Bayless in receiving yards (1,653).

Edwards-Helaire has run for 1,304 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He’s a factor catching the ball out of the backfield, too, with 50 receptions for 399 yards and one TD.

Tyrion Davis-Pride and John Emery are true freshman RBs that’ll see playing time. Davis-Price has 295 rushing yards and six TDs with a 4.6 YPC average. Emery, a five-star recruit, has 188 rushing yards and four TDs on 39 carries (4.8 YPC), while Curry has 185 rushing yards on 37 attempts.

LSU is ranked No. 28 in the country in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score an average of 21.6 PPG. The Bayou Bengals are ranked No. 29 in total defense, No. 56 in pass defense and No. 20 at defending the run.

This unit placed junior safety Grant Delpit and sophomore LB K’Lavon Chaisson on the coaches All-SEC first team. Freshman CB Derek Stingley Jr., senior DE Rashard Lawrence and junior safety JaCoby Stevens were second-team All-SEC selections.

LSU’s defense will get back senior LB Michael Divinity, who was reportedly suspended for six games after testing positive for marijuana for a fourth time. He hasn’t played since a 23-20 win over Auburn on Oct. 26. Divinity missed two other games due to suspensions in September. In five games this year, Divinity produced 23 tackles, three sacks, three QB hurries, one forced fumble and one tackle for loss. He has nine career sacks.

LSU junior LB Jacob Phillips has a team-best 105 tackles to go with six TFL’s, three QB hurries, one sack, one PBU and one forced fumble. Stevens has 85 tackles, six PBU, five sacks, 3.5 TFL’s, three interceptions and a pair of QB hurries, while Delpit has 59 tackles, seven passes broken up, 2.5 TFL’s, two interceptions, one sack and one QB hurry.

LSU collected 10 of its 14 wins over bowl-bound foes, including victories at Texas (45-38), vs. Utah State (42-6), vs. Florida (42-28), at Alabama (46-41), vs. Texas A&M (50-7) and vs. Georgia (37-10) at the SEC Championship Game. Eleven of LSU’s 14 wins have come by 14 points or more.

Clemson (14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS) is appearing in the finals of the CFP for the fourth time in five seasons. Dabo Swinney’s team has been an underdog 10 times since 2014, compiling an 8-2 spread record with six outright victories.

Clemson saw its streak of outgaining opponents in 28 consecutive games snapped during its comeback win over Ohio State in the CFP semifinals at the Fiesta Bowl. Trailing 16-0 late in the second quarter, Swinney’s squad was about to punt after a failed third-down attempt, only to get bailed out by a personal-foul call against the Buckeyes.

It proved to the game’s turning point and a crucial error for Ohio State as Clemson went on to score its first TD of the drive on an eight-yard run by Travis Etienne, who found paydirt with 2:45 left in the second quarter. After forcing a quick three and out, sophomore signal caller Trevor Lawrence took off on a scramble, found some running room and turned on the jets to beat the safety to the corner for an electrifying 67-yard TD run.

Then with 7:54 remaining in the third, Etienne caught a 53-yard TD pass from Lawrence to put give Clemson its first lead at 21-16. However, the Buckeyes went back in front 23-21 on a 23-yard TD pass from Justin Fields to Chris Olave. But with 1:49 left, Etienne caught a short pass from Lawrence and split a pair of defenders for a 34-yard TD reception. Tee Higgins caught a two-point conversion pass from Lawrence to give Clemson a 29-23 advantage.

Brent Venables’ defense took care of its business to seal the deal on a 29-23 win as a 2.5-point favorite. The 52 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 62-point total.

Lawrence completed 18-of-33 passes for 259 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Buckeyes. He had a team-best 107 rushing yards and one TD on 16 attempts. Etienne was limited to 36 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries, but he had three receptions for 98 yards and two TDs. Justyn Ross had six catches for 47 yards.

Clemson sophomore LB Baylon Spector had five tackles two sacks vs. Ohio State, while Isaiah Simmons had four tackles and one interception.

Clemson has already faced a pair of SEC opponents, beating Texas A&M 24-10 at home on Sept. 7 and trouncing South Carolina 38-3 as a 27-point road ‘chalk’ on Nov. 30. Swinney’s bunch owns wins over bowl-bound foes at North Carolina (21-20), vs. FSU (45-14), at Louisville (45-10), vs. Boston College (59-7), vs. Wake Forest (52-3) and vs. Virginia (62-17 at the ACC Championship Game).

After the close call in Chapel Hill, Clemson ripped off eight wins a row by 31 points or more prior to rallying past the Buckeyes. Since the win at UNC. Clemson is on a 9-1 ATS roll.

For the season, Lawrence has connected on 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,431 yards with a 36/8 TD-INT ratio. He has 22 TD passes without an interception in Clemson’s last seven games, and he has a 31/3 TD-INT ratio in his club’s last 11 contests. Lawrence has 514 rushing yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC.

Higgins has 56 receptions for 1,115 yards and 13 TDs, while Ross has 61 catches for 789 yards and eight TDs. Amari Rodger has 28 grabs for 418 yards and four TDs.

Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards and 18 TDs with an 8.0 YPC average. He also has 32 receptions for 396 yards and four TDs. Backup sophomore RB Lyn-J Dixon has 636 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.2 YPC average.

Clemson is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense (244.7 YPG), pass defense (138.5 YPG) and scoring ‘D’ (10.6 PPG). Venables’ unit is ranked ninth against the run (106.2 YPG).

The ‘under’ is 8-6 overall for Clemson, but it has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in its last six games. This is Clemson’s highest total of the season, but it has had eight totals in the 60s, with the ‘under’ going 6-2 in those contests. The highest previous total was 63 at Syracuse in a 41-6 win that easily went ‘under.’

The ‘over’ is 9-5 overall for LSU. This is its fourth-highest total of the year, with the ‘over’ going 2-1 in the three games that had higher totals.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. on ESPN.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- In CFP history, the No. 1 seed (LSU this year) is 0-3 in the finals.

-- I like LSU’s team total to go ‘over’ 19.5 in the first half and ‘over’ 37.5 for the game. Orgeron’s team has scored 42 points or more in 11 of its 14 victories.

-- There are dozens of proposition bets out there at various books. At DraftKings, Burrow’s ‘over/under’ for passing yards is 365.5 (-110 either way) and his total for rushing yards is 26.5 (‘under’ -121, ‘over’ +100). That number for Burrow’s rushing yards is down five yards from 31.5, where it was on Jan. 9. Edwards-Helaire’s total for rushing yards is 99.5 (-110 either way). Edwards-Helaire ran for 103 yards or more in six games this year. Burrow has thrown for 373 yards or more six times.

-- Lawrence’s ‘over/under’ for passing yards is 294.5 (-110 either way) and his total for rushing yards is 51.5 (-110 either way). Lawrence has thrown for 295 yards or more only three times this season. He’s run for 59 yards or more just three times. His highest rushing total other than those three was 47 yards at Louisville. Etienne’s total for rushing yards is 94.5 (-110 either way). The junior RB has eight games with 109 rushing yards or more, turning in seven of those performances in Clemson’s last nine games.

-- Georgia QB Jake Fromm declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft, but Kirby Smart was able to land Wake Forest grad transfer QB Jamie Newman, who is already enrolled at UGA. Newman played in 12 games for the Demon Deacons in 2019, completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 2,868 yards with a 26/11 TD-INT ratio. He’s effective running the ball and pack plenty of muscle on his 6-foot-4 inch, 230-pound frame. Newman ran for 574 yards and six TDs in 2019.

-- Mississippi State AD John Cohen hit a home run with his hire of Mike Leach away from Washington State. Cohen reportedly interviewed former Auburn HC Gene Chizik, former Washington and USC HC Steve Sarkisian, former MSU and current Florida DC Todd Grantham, UL-Lafayette HC Billy Napier and New York Giants new HC Joe Judge. Cohen inked Leach to a four-year contract worth $20 million. Since the program’s beginning in 1895, Mississippi State has never won 11 games. Leach has won 11 twice at two different schools, going 11-2 at Texas Tech in 2008 and at Washington State in 2018. Props to Cohen on this fire of a hire.

-- Names that have been linked to the Washington State vacancy include former UCLA HC Jim Mora Jr., Hawaii HC Nick Rolovich, Boise St. HC Bryan Harsin, former Florida HC and current Central Michigan HC Jim McElwain. Former Cougars DC and current Oklahoma DC Alex Grinch reportedly turned down an offer to interview for the job.

-- Rocky Long retired as head coach at San Diego St. this past week. The Aztecs replaced him with Brady Hoke, who Long replaced after Hoke left to take the HC gig at Michigan.