Championship Week
By Brian Edwards
Championship Week is here, so let’s get warmed up with a few thoughts on the opening lines and also touch on some potential matchups for the BCS Championship Game in Miami.
We’ll start with what amounts to a Final Four contest, as the SEC Championship Game winner will be one of the teams in South Florida in early January. Alabama and Florida are set to collide in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome on Saturday in the most anticipated SEC showdown in decades.
These storied programs met in the first three SEC title games from 1992-1994 and also in ’96. However, they haven’t squared off in Atlanta since 1999 when the Crimson Tide stroked the Gators by a 34-7 count.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (11-1 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) as an 8½-point favorite with a total of 50. On Sunday night, most books had adjusted UF to a 10-point ‘chalk.’
As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Gators at 9½ with the total varying from 50½ to 51½. Gamblers can back Alabama (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) to win outright for an attractive plus-280 payout (risk $100 to win $280).
The most pressing early-week story is the status of Florida’s dynamic playmaker Percy Harvin, who suffered a sprained ankle during UF’s 45-15 clubbing of FSU in Tallahassee as a 16 ½-point road ‘chalk.’
On Sunday, Urban Meyer told the Gainesville Sun, "It's day-to-day. He certainly won't practice the first couple of days. He's here and moving around a little bit. We'll see what happens."
If Harvin can’t play, Florida won’t have to hit any panic buttons. Meyer said, "We have Brandon James, who knows that position. Also, Louis Murphy and David Nelson are playing very well for us. If we move Murphy inside (to the slot), we would have Carl Moore on the outside. We have Deonte Thompson who is another person who can play outside.
"Obviously, we've thought about it because we've had to play through it (not having Harvin) a couple of times before. We have a plan. I just hope he's ready."
The Gators do have plenty of other weapons, but none as explosive as Harvin, who has scored a touchdown in 14 consecutive games.
Nick Saban’s team was listed as an underdog twice this season, winning by double digits on both occasions. ‘Bama started the season at the Georgia Dome, spanking Clemson 34-10 as a five-point ‘dog. The Tide was a six-point ‘dog when it went into Athens and demolished Georgia 41-30 in a game it led 31-0 at intermission.
Why are the Gators such healthy favorites? For starters, they have won eight consecutive games by 28 points or more. They have covered the spread in seven of those eight games that had a number (their 70-19 win over The Citadel was off the board).
But it’s not as if Alabama has been burning the pockets of its backers. The Tide has taken the cash in five straight outings, including Saturday’s 36-0 demolition of arch-rival Auburn.
“I can’t believe Alabama is getting this many points,” said VI handicapper Bill Marzano. “That’s not much respect for Nick Saban’s undefeated team. I thought the number would be seven and was thinking that was a little high. I think the Gators are going to win a close game, but I’ll be backing the underdog.”
If Oklahoma beats Missouri in the Big 12 title game, the Sooners will meet the Florida-Alabama winner in Miami. They have been installed as ridiculous 17-point favorites over the Tigers.
LVSC opened OU as a 14½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 77. As of Monday afternoon, the number was up to 17 and the total was increased to 79. Missouri is plus-500 on the money line.
Marzano said, “17 and 79? Wow! The thing is, though, Oklahoma will probably cover that and it’ll probably go ‘over,’ too.”
ABC will have television coverage from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
I spoke with LVSC oddsmaker Sean Van Patten earlier today about potential lines for the BCS Championship Game. Van Patten indicated the following numbers would likely be seen if no major injuries happen this week.
Florida would be a four-point favorite against Oklahoma and a 6 ½-point ‘chalk’ vs. Texas. The Sooners would be 5½-point favorites in a matchup with Alabama, while Texas would be 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ against the Tide.
The Longhorns will go to Miami if Missouri can pull a shocker against Bob Stoops and Co.
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