Championship Week
By Brian Edwards
Championship Week is here and Las Vegas Sports Consultants released its opening numbers early Sunday afternoon. Gamblers have four title games on Saturday, in addition to the MAC Championship Game on Friday night. Also on Friday, the Civil War will be waged in Oregon to determine the Pac-10 champ and Ohio State’s opponent at the Rose Bowl.
At the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Florida and Alabama will collide for the second straight season for the right to play in the BCS Championship Game. LVSC opened the Gators as five-point favorites with a total of 43. Gamblers can expect to see the Crimson Tide at plus-170 to win outright (risk $100 to win $170).
When these teams met in the SEC Championship Game at the same venue last year, Tim Tebow threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to propel UF to a 31-20 victory as a 10-point favorite. The 51 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54-point total. The spread cover for the Gators ended a 0-6-1 ATS slide in head-to-head meetings against ‘Bama.
This is the first time Urban Meyer’s team has been a single-digit favorite all year long. Florida’s shortest ‘chalk’ spot was as a 10-point favorite in a 13-3 win at LSU back on Oct. 10.
Alabama hasn’t been an underdog in 2009. During Nick Saban’s three-year tenure, the Tide owns a 2-1-1 spread record when listed as an underdog.
Both teams own identical 12-0 records. UF is 6-5 against the spread, while ‘Bama is 7-5 versus the number.
In terms of stats and the ‘eye test,’ these teams undoubtedly have the two best defenses in the nation. Alabama’s unit is led by linebacker Rolando McClain, while UF’s is spearheaded by LB Brandon Spikes.
When breaking down all the matchups (which this space will do at great length later in the week), there aren’t any positions where either squad has anything other than an ever-so-slight edge with just one exception. That would be at QB, where Tebow is one of the best in NCAA history.
Alabama RB Mark Ingram, a leading Heisman Trophy candidate, is “questionable” with a hip pointer but the guess here is that he’ll play. Regardless, it says here that his potential absence wouldn’t be as big a loss as most suspect. That’s because freshman RB Trent Richardson is a stud and Roy Upchurch has to be the best third-string RB in SEC history. Even Terry Grant, the No. 4 RB, is a player with more than 1,000 career rushing yards to his credit.
CBS will have television coverage from the ATL at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
Texas is presumed to be the team that will face the Alabama-Florida winner in Pasadena for the national title. However, the Longhorns must first get past Nebraska in the Big 12 title game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
LVSC opened Mack Brown’s squad as a 15 ½-point favorite with a total of 48 ½. But as of late Sunday night, most books had adjusted Texas to a 14-point ‘chalk.’
Bettors have seen monster upsets in the Big 12 Championship Game before. In fact, this combination of teams collided for one of the bigger upsets in NCAA history, at least in terms of the magnitude of the game.
Back in 1996, John Mackovic’s Texas team was a 20 ½-point underdog against Tom Osborne’s Cornhuskers, who were the defending national champs at the time. Behind the play of QB James Brown and a daring fourth-down call by Mackovic with the Longhorns leading and with the ball in their own territory late in the final stanza, Texas shocked the world with a 37-27 win.
Nebraska’s loss paved the way for Florida to get to the Sugar Bowl and a rematch with FSU for the national title. The Gators throttled the Seminoles 52-20 to give Steve Spurrier his lone “national.”
This time around, it’s Texas looking to play for all the marbles with Nebraska serving as the last obstacle in its way. They’ll square off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
LVSC opened Ga. Tech as a one-point favorite over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. The total was 55 on the send-out. This game, previously played in Jacksonville, has moved to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
The Yellow Jackets and Tigers are both coming off losses to SEC schools in their regular-season finales. Georgia went into Bobby Dodd Stadium and captured a 30-24 victory as an eight-point road underdog. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney’s team took woodshed treatment in the form of a 34-17 clubbing at South Carolina. The Gamecocks won outright as 3 ½-point home underdogs.
These ACC adversaries met on The Flats earlier this year. Clemson nearly rallied from a 24-0 deficit to upset Ga. Tech, but the Yellow Jackets got a 36-yard field goal from Scott Blair in the final minute to win a 30-27 decision. Nevertheless, the Tigers posted the backdoor cover as five-point road underdogs.
Since the conference went to a championship game, neither school has garnered an ACC title. This is Clemson’s first appearance, while the Yellow Jackets came up on the short end of a 9-6 decision against Wake Forest three years ago.
ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Championship Saturday will start at noon when East Carolina and Houston collide at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium for the C-USA title game in Greenville, NC. In other words, ECU will host the Cougars at home.
LVSC opened Houston as a one-point favorite with a total of 66.
The MAC Championship Game will be held Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit, pitting Ohio against Central Michigan. Due to the uncertain status of Bobcats’ QB Theo Scott. LVSC didn’t send a line out Sunday, although Leroy’s had the Chippewas as 11-point favorites.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Nebraska has only been an underdog twice this season, taking the cash in each instance (a 16-15 loss at Va. Tech and a 10-3 win over Oklahoma).
The favorite has covered the spread in five consecutive Big 12 title games.
The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four UF-Bama head-to-head encounters.
Florida is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a single-digit 'chalk.'
The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight Clemson games this year, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 in its last five head-to-head meetings against Ga. Tech.
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