Coaches on the Hot Seat
By The Gold Sheet
It's an autumn ritual. Just as certain as the leaves change color in the northeast, numerous college football coaches have their heads on the chopping block every fall. And it behooves the shrewd handicapper to keep abreast of such developments, and be aware of which coaches might be in trouble, as the college campaign progresses.
Indeed, we've seen the seasons of countless teams unravel in similar fashion, more specifically when squads with under-fire head coaches begin to flounder. For as soon as the handwriting appears on the wall that a coaching change is imminent, the performance pattern of such teams usually become erratic at best, and downright awful at worst. Moreover, most of these situations can be identified beforehand, and catching just a few of these inevitable downturns (and mounting point-spread defeats) in their early stages can result in a valuable string of point-spread success for the intuitive 'capper.
The dynamics of such situations have been repeated countless times throughout the years. Such developments rarely occur in a vacuum; connected parties know what is going on as well. In particular, coaching staffs start to scramble when a head coaching change appears imminent, as assistants begin to network within the industry in hopes of securing future employment elsewhere. Game preparation with their current jobs can offer suffer. But potential upheaval is hardly limited to coaching staffs; scholarship athletes can also be expected to work the back-channels as well, realizing a new coach (who has the power to revoke scholarships if he so chooses) might change their status within the program. The idea of transferring can become a lot more interesting to affected athletes, who, like the distracted coaching staff, might not focus as properly on remaining games as they usually would. It’s no surprise that losses can mount quickly in such tenuous situations.
Following are some college coaches that we feel are in the most trouble as midseason approaches. Pay special attention to a handful of situations that might be determined before the season concludes; indeed, in many recent years, college coaches have been more apt than their NFL counterparts to get the boot before the regular season concludes, a phenomenon once almost solely reserved for the pro game.
Bobby Bowden, Florida State... The situation appears ready to reach the breaking point in Tallahassee, where the Seminoles are in the midst of what is likely to be their worst season since Bowden first year on campus in 1976. Various forces within FSU Nation are now clamoring for Bowden, who is scheduled to step down after the 2010 campaign, to either relinquish the reins to designated successor Jimbo Fisher right now, or by the end of the season. The thought of another awkward year with Bowden operating as something of a ceremonial leader has become increasingly unpalatable to a variety of Nole supporters who have watched the team careen into non-relevance in the ACC. Moreover, rumors of internal strife both on the team and staff (assistants Chuck Amato and the aforementioned Fisher were reportedly involved in a scrap after the recent BC loss) further underline the worsening dilemma in Tallahassee.
Dan Hawkins, Colorado... The Buffs have actually posted three unlikely point-spread covers in a row, but with a 1-4 straight-up record and a fourth straight non-winning season apparently in the cards, some Big XII sources suspect that Hawkins is fast-approaching must-win time. Particularly irksome to Buff backers was how poorly prepared CU appeared to be for its first two games, disappointing defeats vs. underdog Colorado State & Toledo sides. The fact that the Buffs have yet to seriously contend in the Big XII North on Hawkins' watch is adding more fuel to the fire in Boulder.
Tommy West, Memphis...The Tigers might have tossed their coach a lifeline in last week's surprise win over UTEP, but sources in the Bluff City insist that West's rollercoaster tenure with Memphis is likely to be permanently derailed at the conclusion of the regular season. The school, which has hired former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese to help it secure membership somewhere (anywhere!) in a BCS conference, is already rumored to be looking at some high-profile successors, including ex-Tennessee HC Phil Fulmer and ex-Auburn HC Tommy Tuberville.
Mike Sanford, UNLV... Perhaps the top candidate to be relieved of duties before the current season is complete, Sanford entered 2009 already on shaky ground after notching just 11 wins in 4 years. But the manner of recent defeats vs. rival Nevada (when the Wolf Pack scored 63 and gained 773 yards) and BYU (when the Cougs scored 59 and gained 611 yards) indicates that the many leaks in Rebel dike have finally burst. Add to that the fact that UNLV has a recently-hired school president and will be making a permanent appointment of a new Athletic Director in the near future more clearly illuminates Sanford's plight.
Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville... Cardinal backers who became spoiled by success on Bobby Petrino's watch, have been soured by the performance of the Kragthorpe regime, which appears headed for its third straight non-bowl season. Kragthorpe's few defenders cite how the former Tulsa coach cleared out a lot of undesirables that he inherited from Petrino. But the on-field product has been decidedly mediocre ever since Kragthorpe arrived, and most Big East onlookers don't believe last week's exciting win over Southern Miss indicates an imminent upswing. The grumbling has reached a crescendo in the 'ville, and sources say another bowl-less season likely seals Kragthorpe's fate.
Ron Zook, Illinois... A relatively new arrival on the list, Zook is suddenly finding himself in some trouble as the Illini continues its disturbing fall into the abyss. Lopsided losses vs. Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State when the offense scored a mere 26 total points illuminated Illinois' deficiencies, and last week's benching of sr. QB Juice Williams (who seems to have regressed since his encouraging sophomore season) did little to help matters in another unsightly loss, this one to Michigan State. With just one strong season (2007) in five years on the job, and the program backsliding alarmingly since, Zook can no longer cite purported recruiting inroads to keep the wolves at bay. As many of his detractors predicted, Zook's strength as a recruiter would eventually be compromised by his shortcomings as a game coach. Now on perhaps the Big Ten's hottest seat.
Mike Locksley, New Mexico... Locksley's plight has already been well-documented by us in the past. With the Lobo season at 0-6 and careening further out of control after last week's 37-13 loss at Wyoming (which, ironically, appears to be progressing nicely under its first-year HC, Dave Christensen), and Locksley under further investigation from the school president after a reported fight with an assistant coach in late September, on top of the sexual harassment and wrongful termination suit slapped on Locksley by an Athletic Department employee shortly after his hiring in spring, the first-year coach's plight becomes more clear. And with Lobo Nation in a full-blown revolt, some MWC observers believe Locksley might not even last his maiden campaign, especially if the school can extract itself from contractual obligations based upon Locksley's behavior.
Others to watch:
J.D. Brookhart, Akron
Pat Hill, Fresno State
Mark Richt, Georgia
Doug Martin, Kent State
Mark Snyder, Marshall
Ralph Friedgen, Maryland
Bob Toledo, Tulane
Mike Price, UTEP
Al Groh, Virginia