NCAAF Early Surprises
By Bruce Marshall
With the college football campaign having completed the first month of its season, some surprising team trends have emerged, both good and bad. Following are some early-season surprises and disappointments, and their prospects for continuing along similar straight-up and point-spread paths.
Pleasant Surprises
Arizona (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread)...Most figured the Wildcats could probably contend in the Pac-10 this season. But skeptics wondered if UA could clear the sort of big-game hurdles that impeded them last season and cost the program a chance to appear in its first-ever Rose Bowl (the Cats are still the only Pac-10 team never to do so). But wins over Iowa and Cal indicate this Arizona edition is likely made of sterner stuff than other recent Tucson versions. QB Nick Foles has emerged as one of the nation’s best, and newcomers along Mike Stoops’ defense have stepped in to contribute immediately.
Auburn (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)...Like Arizona, most figured the Tigers to be representative and on their way to another bowl. To step up to the next level, however, would require transfer QB Cam Newton to immediately step in and take ownership of the signal-caller position for o.c. Gus Malzahn’s progressive spread. Newton has endured a few bumps along the way but seems to possess the sort of big-play component at QB that Auburn has missed in recent seasons. Consecutive wins over rugged Mississippi State, Clemson, and South Carolina squads has Auburn poised to soon enter the Top 10 and given folks on the plains reason to believe Gene Chizik’s men can challenge Alabama and LSU for SEC West supremacy.
East Carolina (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)...Nobody was expecting too much from a Pirates team that was gutted by graduation, needed to find a new QB, and, by the way, was welcoming in a new coach and staff (alum Ruffin McNeill, most recently Texas Tech’s d.c.). But thus far, the offense has been percolated behind Boston College transfer QB Dominique Davis, who has thrown for 9 TD passes in the first three games. ECU is scoring 42 ppg and suddenly figures in the C-USA discussion with conference favorite Houston now minus QB Case Keenum for the rest of the season.
Michigan (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)...Now, this is what Wolverine fans were expecting when hiring Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia, with the old, Pat White-led spread options finally resurfacing this month in Ann Arbor with dynamic soph QB Denard Robinson emerging as an early Heisman sleeper. Robinson was taken out in the first half last week against Bowling Green with a knee injury, but early reports indicate it’s not serious, with a good chance Robinson is available for Saturday’s Big Ten opener at Indiana. There are still some legitimate concerns about the Wolverine defense that has not been up to past standards for the last couple of seasons, but the presence of the dynamic Robinson should give Michigan a puncher’s chance against anybody (Ohio State included). In a way, it’s nice to have Michigan back in the rankings after an extended absence.
NC State (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)...Who would have guessed the Wolfpack to be the last remaining unbeaten in the ACC? But with a healthy QB Russell Wilson and an improved defense, the Wolfpack are flying into October and into the national rankings for the first time in recent memory. Keeping the playmaking Wilson healthy, however, will be key if NCST wants to continue its magical run.
San Diego State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)... Only a fluky last-minute 68-yard TD pass by Missouri is keeping the Aztecs from an unbeaten straight up and against the spread ledger in September. Otherwise, HC Brady Hoke looks as if he is quickly resurrecting SDSU much as he did with Ball State in the MAC a few years earlier. The Aztecs have been searching for an infantry diversion and might have found one in RS frosh RB Ronnie Hillman, who gained 223 YR at Mizzou and is already at 532 YR through just four games. He has emerged as a valuable complement to rifle-armed QB Ryan Lindley and finally provided the sort of balance we haven’t seen from SDSU attacks since the days of Marshall Faulk in the early '90s.
Stanford (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)...We’re serious, Stanford might be the best team in the country! There will be a lot more believers if the Cardinal, as it did last season, can beat Oregon again this Saturday, but regardless, the restoration job done by HC Jim Harbaugh is nothing short of sensational, as anyone who saw Walt Harris’ 2006 version of the Tree (which finished 1-11) can attest. Harbaugh, who doesn’t seem to mind running up scores, has reintroduced some old-fashioned concepts, featuring fullbacks who can run the ball and tight ends who can block, mixed in with a sophisticated offensive formula piloted by the Cardinal’s second stealth Heisman candidate in as many years, QB Andrew Luck, after RB Toby Gerhart came oh-so-close a year ago. Harbaugh has effectively replaced Gerhart with a RB-by-committee approach, and the overall athleticism on the roster has been upgraded to the point where Stanford’s stop unit can effectively implement some of the progressive schemes introduced by a defensive staff loaded with NFL experience. And since Harbaugh (whom many Pac-10 sources believe will be coaching in the NFL next year) seems to enjoy piling on the scores, the Cardinal could continue as a point-spread force.
Virginia (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)...Nobody was expecting much from the Cavs, picked by most at the bottom of the ACC’s Coastal Division. But it was evident rather early that new HC Mike London, a former Cav and off a highly-successful two-year stint leading Richmond (which won the FCS crown in 2008), knows what he’s doing. He’s reintroduced a more-physical component to the offense, which now is apt to line up in an old-fashioned I formation featuring bruising 255-lb. RB Keith Payne, welcomed back to the program after running afoul of London predecessor Al Groh. The eye-opener was outgaining and outhitting Southern Cal in a close 17-14 loss that the Cavs could have easily won back on September 11.
Disappointments
Boston College (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)...Sluggish wins and non-covers vs. Weber State and Kent State were warning signs to Eagles fans that BC might be starting to slip from its recent perch. And last Saturday’s 19-0 shutout home loss against Virginia Tech confirmed some of those fears, especially as they relate to a choppy offense that had to bench QB Dave Shinskie vs. the Hokies. Now, HC Frank Spaziani says that either soph Mike Marscovetra or true frosh Chase Rettig will get the start this Saturday vs. visiting Notre Dame. But with the offense’s problems appearing acute, the Eagles are going to have trouble putting enough points on the board to pull away from anybody.
BYU (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Things have gone rather pear-shaped for the Cougars, who were in the news for some different reasons when the season began. The school’s controversial abandonment of the Mountain West for independent status in football and membership in the smaller WCC for the rest of its sports still has many scratching their heads out west. Now, however, that news has been replaced in Provo by a troubling slump that’s seen the Cougs beaten soundly in three straight games by good (but not great) opposition. Moreover, Utah State transfer QB Riley Nelson, part of HC Bronco Mendenhall’s QB rotation, is out for the season with a shoulder injury, forcing touted (but green) true freshman Jake Heaps into the lineup full-time. The thought in summer was that Heaps could ease into the eventual starting role by splitting snaps with Nelson, the more mobile of the two. But Heaps’ learning curve is now being accelerated with Nelson’s injury. There have been some other problems as well for the Cougs, who have not adequately replaced RB Harvey Unga, thrown out of school in spring. The defense has also faltered, especially vs. the rush, where Mendenhall’s usually stout stop unit ranks a woeful 119th, allowing 264 ypg.
Duke (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)...Where’s the defense? We can excuse the Blue Devils for getting pancaked by top-ranked Alabama, 62-13, back on Sept. 18. But allowing Army to bludgeon you 35-21 in Durham (and the game wasn’t that close) is a major red flag, as was allowing Wake Forest to score 54 points in a wild shootout loss at Winston-Salem on September 11. Duke now ranks 118th out of 120 on total defense, making hard for impressive new QB Sean Renfree (who regressed in the loss to West Point) to carry the Blue Devils’ hopes on his shoulders alone.
Georgia (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Is HC Mark Richt really in trouble? Dissatisfaction began to creep into Bulldog Nation in 2008, when Georgia was considered to have significantly underachieved after having been a chic national champion selection entering the campaign. And Georgia could do no better than minor bowl territory last season. Now, that might even be a stretch after three consecutive defeats and the teeth of the SEC schedule still to come. The Dawgs have missed suspended WR A.J. Green, one of the best big-play threats in the ACC, and RS frosh QB Aaron Murray is still learning the ropes. Green will return this week at Colorado, but inept offensive performances at South Carolina and Mississippi State have SEC sources what Georgia might do if the unthinkable (a losing season, perhaps?) happens in Athens.
Georgia Tech (2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Some ACC sources are beginning to wonder if the rest of the league is beginning to catch up with HC Paul Johnson and his spread option tactics. The Jackets have been a difficult change-of-pace for ACC foes to deal with in recent years, but with QB Joshua (don’t call me Josh) Nesbitt remaining one-dimensional and the aerial diversion still just a rumor with the Ramblin’ Wreck, Tech is showing signs of erosion, losing heavily last week at home vs. better-balanced NC State, and beaten by double-digit dog Kansas two weeks ago. And with the defense seeming to lack its customary playmakers, Johnson’s noted game management skills and shrewd scheming are going to be more necessary than ever to keep GT in the ACC hunt.
Minnesota (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)...Were it not for Middle Tennessee being without suspended QB Dwight Dasher in the opener at Murfreesboro, we wonder if there would be any suspense left in the matter of HC Tim Brewster lasting beyond this season. Roundly considered to be in a must-win situation entering 2010, Brewster’s Gophers have already lost to South Dakota and Northern Illinois, both at Minneapolis, with the teeth of the Big Ten schedule still to come. If Minnesota keeps losing, the question by mid-October will not be if Brewster will return in 2011, but whether he can last the rest of this season.
Ole Miss (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)...We’ll put a qualifier on this one, because events last Saturday in Oxford indicate there still might be time for the Rebels to salvage something from this season. That wild 55-38 win over Fresno State illustrated what many SEC watchers had indicated in earlier weeks, that HC Houston Nutt would be better served by integrating punishing RB Brandon Bolden into the offense instead of revolving everything around Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli. Bolden (gaining 7.1 yards per pop) exploded for a career-high 228 YR vs. Fresno, re-calibrating an attack that was falling too much in love with Masoli and the spread in earlier weeks, to the point it couldn’t convert short-yardage run situations. Still, more-challenging SEC dates await, and Masoli has yet to prove the messiah many expected when he made his surprise decision to move to Ole Miss in the summer. Remember, this was expected to be something of a rebuilding year at Ole Miss before Masoli arrived, perhaps fueling unrealistically heightening expectations.
New Mexico (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)...It’s hard to underachieve when nobody expects much from your team. But, meet the Lobos, who have been worse than could be imagined, allowing 56 ppg and never closer than 35 points in their first four games. And there has been nothing deceiving about those nightmare stats...the Lobos "D" really is that bad. The vultures are beginning to circle in Albuquerque, as under most circumstances the disastrous regime of 2nd-year HC Mike Locksley would be humanely terminated. But word from Mountain West sources is that Locksley’s buyout for the remaining three-plus years on his deal is a steep one (nearly $3 million), and unless an "angel" booster steps forward, the school is likely going to have to live with Locksley a while longer. And this is what they wanted when getting rid of Rocky Long?
Texas (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)...There’s still time for the Longhorns to put their season back on track, but last week’s 34-12 home loss to UCLA was a red flag for any Texas-exes who are expecting another trip to the BCS title game. Those hopes are mostly shot already and can be put to rest completely if Texas can’t beat Oklahoma this week in Dallas. It doesn’t get any easier after the Sooner game, either, with revenge-minded Nebraska next on deck (at Lincoln) Oct. 16, which means Texas might have to adjust its postseason sights to the Alamo or Insight Bowls if it can’t find some traction, and quickly. The Horns also didn’t put 60 minutes of solid football together in any of their first three games vs. Rice, Wyoming, or Texas Tech. Mack Brown has been discouraged by the offense’s inability to generate a consistent rushing threat (which was an emphasis throughout the offseason), and the jury remains out on QB Garrett Gilbert, whose slow delivery telegraphs many of his passes (especially on intermediate and deeper routes). We’ll see how Texas reacts to the physical beat-down administered by the underdog Bruins, which Brown called "a real rear-end kicking."
Wake Forest (2-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)...This looks like an old Wake Forest team, slowish on defense and minus playmakers on offense. And it appears to be steep drop-off from the competitive Demon Deacons sides we have come to expect from HC Jim Grobe in recent years. Replacing 4-year starting QB Riley Skinner has proven to be a challenge, as Grobe has alternated several new faces (most specifically Tanner Price and Ted Stachitas) with