Friday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have a pair of televised games to wager on Friday night, as a pair of quality “mid-major” programs get rare chances to host BCS schools. The action starts in Hattiesburg, where Southern Miss will play host to Kansas. The Jayhawks will be looking to avoid a letdown following their upset win over Ga. Tech.
Later in the evening, Nevada will take on California from out of the Pac-10 in Reno. Let’s take a look at both of these games and more.
**Kansas at Southern Miss**
As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had So. Miss (1-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take Turner Gill’s team to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Larry Fedora’s team is coming off a 34-7 win over Prairie View A&M in a non-lined affair. The Golden Eagles jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime and cruised from there, resting most of their starters for much of the second half. Austin Davis threw for 178 yards and one touchdown to star receiver DeAndre Brown, who had five receptions for 100 yards.
So. Miss got off to an inauspicious start in Week 1, dropping a 41-13 decision at South Carolina as a 13-point underdog. With the Gamecocks playing without four of their best players due to suspensions, some had suggested that So. Miss might have a chance to pull the outright upset. However, that notion never even came close to materializing.
So. Miss has only been a home underdog once during Fedora’s three-year tenure. In that spot, the Golden Eagles failed to cover the number in a 24-7 loss to Boise St. as 11-point ‘dogs in 2008.
Kansas (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) might have been the nation’s biggest goat in Week 1, losing at home to North Dakota St. by a 6-3 score in Gill’s debut. However, the Jayhawks responded last week by beating Ga. Tech 28-25 as 14-point home underdogs. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan Webb was given the starting nod against the Yellow Jackets and he answered the call with authority. Webb threw three touchdown passes, while true freshman RB James Sims ran for 101 yards on 17 carries. As the Jackets were threatening to get into field-goal range for a potential tying score in the final minute, KU stopped Ga. Tech on downs thanks to a false-start penalty on fourth and three that preceded a Josh Nesbitt incompletion.
The 53 combined points in KU’s win over Ga. Tech slipped ‘over’ the 51-point total. The ‘over’ was also a winner for So. Miss in Week 1, as the 54 combined points eclipsed the 46-point tally.
When these schools met in Lawrence last year, KU captured a 35-28 victory as a 13-point ‘chalk.’ So. Miss rallied from a 28-14 deficit to tie the game in the final stanza, but the Jayhawks got the game-winning score on a short drive after a 50-yard kickoff return.
In the last five years, So. Miss has only hosted a BCS opponent twice. The Golden Eagles got past Virginia 37-34 last year, but the Cavs easily took the money as 14-point road underdogs. In ’06, they spanked N.C. St. 37-17 as three-point home favorites.
ESPN will have television coverage Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**California at Nevada**
As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing California (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a three-point road favorite with a total of 65 ½. Bettors can back the home underdog on the money line for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125).
Nevada (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has lost seven straight games against BCS teams by an average margin of 22 points per game. Since 2005, the Wolf Pack is winless both SU and ATS in three home games versus BCS competition. They lost 55-21 to Washington St. as nine-point home ‘dogs in 2005. In ’08, Texas Tech emerged from Reno with a 35-19 win as a 10-point road ‘chalk,’ and Missouri captured a 31-21 victory as a 7 ½-point road favorite last year.
UN is led by senior quarterback Colin Kaeparnick, who accounted for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 51-6 demolition of Colorado St. The Wolf Pack easily brought home the cash even though it was laying 24 ½ points. Kaepernick completed 21-of-29 throws for 241 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed 161 yards and two scores on only 11 carries.
Nevada racked up 631 total yards against the Rams. Senior RB Vai Taua rushed 15 times for 118 yards and one TD. He had a pair of TD runs in a season-opening home win over Eastern Washington by a 49-24 count.
Jeff Tedford’s squad has beaten up on a couple of soft foes the first two weeks. Cal opened up with a 52-3 dismantling of UC Davis. Next, the Bears pounded Colorado and its lame-duck coach Dan Hawkins, 52-7.
Cal scored the first 31 points against CU and cruised to an easy victory. Senior QB Kevin Riley threw for 197 yards and four touchdowns. He has yet to be intercepted this year compared to seven TD passes. The Bears got a pair of TDs from their defense and intercepted the Buffs’ Tyler Hansen three times.
Since 2004 when Chris Ault began his second head-coaching stint at UN, his team has compiled a 4-6 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog.
Cal owns an 11-15 spread record in 26 games as a road favorite during Tedford’s nine-year tenure.
When I talked to BoDog’s Richard Gardner on Wednesday afternoon, he said California minus three was one of the BoDog players’ most popular selections for Week 3.
Kick-off is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Kaepernick’s career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 65/16. He has 43 career rushing TDs.
FSU has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games as a double-digit favorite. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had the ‘Noles as 10-point home favorites vs. BYU. Gardner told VI, “We opened FSU at nine but almost all of the action that’s come in has been on the Seminoles.” BoDog had adjusted to 10 by Wednesday.
We mentioned the heavy action on Cal at BoDog. Gardner added that Nebraska minus 3 ½ was the most one-sided action the book had taken for Saturday games. In fact, as of late Wednesday afternoon, most books still had the Cornhuskers favored by three at Washington. However, Gardner told me at 2:00 p.m. Eastern that BoDog had just adjusted the number from 3 ½ to four.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe got burned when he backed FSU last week, but he won’t be making that mistake again Saturday. “My opinion of FSU has gone down significantly, especially after their poor defensive effort against Oklahoma,” Iskoe said. “I wasn’t impressed with BYU last week, either, but this is a huge revenge game for the Cougars. If the line continues to climb, I might get more interested in a BYU play.”
Most books are listing Florida as a 14-point road favorite for its SEC opener Saturday at Tennessee. The Gators are 8-10 ATS as road favorites on Urban Meyer’s watch. They are 4-5 ATS as double-digit road ‘chalk’ since Meyer took over for Ron Zook.
--Since 2000, Tennessee is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog.
vegasinsider.com
Friday NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
Kansas at Southern Mississippi (-5.5 49.5)
WHY KANSAS WILL COVER
The Jayhawks’ season was written off by most after they lost 6-3 to North Dakota State in their season opener. But in Week 2, head coach Turner Gill made some adjustments and engineered a 28-25 upset over a ranked Georgia Tech team.
Gill made two key changes in that game: he gave the starting quarterback job to red shirt freshman Jordan Webb and the feature running back spot to James Sims, a true freshman.
Kansas carries the momentum into Friday and aims to establish an attack similar to what South Carolina employed against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles struggled against the run in that game giving up 224 yards on 35 carries in a 41-13 loss.
The Jayhawks were not the same team that lost to North Dakota State and Southern Miss is a bit of a talent downgrade compared to Georgia Tech. And don’t forget the Jayhawks’ offensive coordinator, Darrell Wyatt, held the same position previously at Southern Miss.
WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL COVER
Last year as +11.5 point underdogs in Lawrence, the Golden Eagles came back from a 21-7 deficit and nearly upset Kansas. The revenge factor gets a boost this year with ESPN cameras and home field advantage.
QB Austin Davis threw for 331 yards and 3 TDs in last year’s tilt and he leads a fast-paced offense that looks to exploit Kansas’s defensive depth problems. Against Georgia Tech, the Jayhawks D focused mainly on containing the option and they still gave up 407 yards of total offense.
NOTES AND TRENDS
People don’t seem to be sold on Kansas with the line opening up at -4 in favor of Southern Miss, which has now seen movement up to -5.5. The Jayhawks are decent against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games covering the spread six times in their last seven. Southern Miss is 0-2 ATS so far this year and both of their games have gone over the total.
A low of 69 degrees is expected by kickoff with a 10 percent chance of precipitation.
California at Nevada (+2.5, 65.5)
WHY CAL WILL COVER
The Golden Bears have the historical edge in this series going 22-1-1 against the Wolf Pack and they’ve also completely dominated their opponents in 2010, outscoring Colorado and UC Davis 104-10. QB Kevin Riley is a huge part of that offensive explosion and he already has seven TD passes this season.
Nevada runs a high-powered offense and has scored 100 points in two games. Their pistol attack leads the nation in total yards at 592 per game.
The Cal’s stopper unit should have the personnel to handle their attack. The Golden Bears produced five turnovers and six sacks in their last game against Colorado and they have been particularly good against the run allowing only 44.5 yards per game.
WHY NEVADA WILL COVER
This is the last chance for the Nevada seniors to prove that Boise isn’t the only the quality team in the WAC. Other than their November encounter with the Broncos, the Cal game is the most important one on the schedule. The group has gradually improved over the last three years.
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick has been under the radar despite all his talents. The senior is one of the most exciting offensive players in the NCAA as he demonstrated against Colorado State (241 passing yards, 161 rushing yards, four combined TDs). A big performance on national TV against a BCS team would increase his profile.
NOTES AND TRENDS
The line sits at -3 in favor of the visiting Cal Bears and can be found for -2.5 at some books. The Wolf Pack have only covered once in the last four games when listed as underdogs in non-conference games. Nevada is also just 2-18 straight up against BCS schools since 2004.
The total opened at 62 and has moved all the way up to 66 with most expecting an offensive shootout.
The low temperature is expected to touch 52 degrees by kickoff. Expect a decent sized Golden Bear contingent in the stands because of Reno’s close proximity to Northern California.
Friday's Games
How does Kansas lose to North Dakota State, then upset Georgia Tech last week? Jayhawks are 5-9 vs spread in last 14 games as dog, 12-16 as road dog since '02- they (-13) beat Southern Miss 35-28 LY, outgaining Eagles 433-395; USM is 6-4 as home favorite under Fedora; they gave up 224 rushing yards in opening 41-13 loss at South Carolina. C-USA home favorites are 0-3 vs spread in non-league games. Big 12 road dogs are 0-2 in non-conference games.
Cal Bears are just 3-9 vs spread in last dozen games as road fave; their Pac-10 opener is next week at Arizona, but ESPN date probably means they won't overlook Nevada squad that ran ball for 376 yards in 51-6 pasting of Colorado State last week. Wolf Pack is just 2-6 vs spread as an underdog since '06. Both teams have experienced QBs. Cal crushed Colorado 52-7 last week (was 31-0 at half). Pac-10 favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-league games. WAC underdogs are 5-3 against the spread.
Tips and Trends
Kansas Jayhawks at S. Mississippi Golden Eagles
JAYHAWKS: Kansas has only played 2 games so far this season, but the contrast in each game can only leave you scratching your head. After losing 3-6 to North Dakota St as 27.5 favorites, the Jayhawks responded with a 28-25 win over 14th ranked Georgia Tech as +13.5 underdogs. 1st year Coach Turner Gill can only hope for a less chaotic season moving forward. Kansas was projected to finish 2nd in the Big 12 North division coming into the season. To reach those lofty goals, Kansas will have to keep improving on offense. Currently, the Jayhawks only have the 108th scoring offense in the country at 15.5 PPG. QB Jordan Webb will look to continue his maturation process, and he had a 3TD day with no turnovers against Georgia Tech. Defensively, Kansas has been far more consistent than their offense. The Jayhawks are allowing only 15.5 PPG, the 33rd best scoring defense in FBS. Tonight represents a big test for not only the young roster, but also the new coaching staff. It's important for the state of this program to back up their win over a ranked foe, as well as win their first true road game of the season.
Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS last 7 non-conference games.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games following a ATS win.
Key Injuries - RB DeShaun Sands (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
GOLDEN EAGLES: (-5.5, O/U 51.5) Southern Mississippi is very excited to be hosting a team from one of the bigger conferences. Only 6 time before has a Big Six Conference came into Southern Mississippi to play, with the Golden Eagles going 4-2 SU. Southern Miss is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS so far this season. The Golden Eagles lost 13-41 to South Carolina, despite only being outgained by 45 total yards. While this team is projected to finish 2nd in C-USA East, there is still plenty of question marks surrounding this team. Coach Fedora has stated publicly how improving on defense is the key to the Golden Eagles season. Thus far, Southern Miss is ranked 69th in scoring defense at 24 PPG. Tonight's contest represents a revenge game for the Golden Eagles. Last year, Southern Miss lost 28-35 to Kansas as an 11.5 underdog. QB Austin Davis will need to have a great game tonight for the Golden Eagles to prevail. Through 2 games, Southern Mississippi has the 28th ranked passing offense at 274 YPG.
Golden Eagles are 3-7 ATS last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-1 last 6 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - RB Tracey Lampley (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)
California Golden Bears at Nevada Wolfpack
GOLDEN BEARS: (-3, O/U 66) It seems like each year Coach Tedford gets off to a fast start. Proving this point is the fact California is 6-1 ATS in their past 7 September games. This will be the 25th time Cal has faced Nevada, but the very first time that they will meet in Nevada. Cal has 2 wide margin wins, for a combined score of 104-10. Quite the disparity, but especially so when considering one of those opponents was Colorado. The Golden Bears come into tonight with the 5th ranked scoring offense, as well as the 4th ranked scoring defense. Senior QB Kevin Riley has thrown for 7 TD's this year, without an INT. Star RB Shane Vareen has modest numbers to start the year with only 63 yards rushing. However, Vareen has found the end zone 5 times thus far in limited playing time due to their blowout victories. California will be tested defensively tonight, as this is their first road game of the year. This contest with Nevada will be the last non-conference game of the season for California.
Golden Bears are 12-3 ATS last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 12-3-1 last 16 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 38 (OVER-Total of the Day)
WOLFPACK: Nevada is off to a fast 2-0 SU start, scoring a combined 100 PTS thus far. The Wolfpack have scored 51 and 49 PTS, against Colorado St. and Eastern Washington respectively. As a result of these blowout victories, Nevada has a top 20 offense in nearly every offensive category imaginable. The Wolfpack are 18th in passing, 6th in rushing, and 7th in PPG. Those are some incredibly balanced numbers that signify just how productive the pistol offense can be. QB Colin Kaepernick has been outstanding this season, rushing and passing for 2 TD's in each game this year. Nevada is looking to make some noise in the WAC conference, where they feel they can challenge Boise St. for league supremacy. For the Wolfpack to be truly great, their defense is going to have to lead them to the promise land. While solid against Colorado St, the Wolfpack did allow Eastern Washington to score 24 PTS. As great as the Wolpack offense is, the Golden Bears offense will provide a stern test. Nevada is hoping to have a huge crowd in their favor, as most smaller conferences receive when playing a BCS school during the week.
Wolfpack are 8-3 ATS last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - WR L.J. Washington (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 34
KU faces a letdown spot
By SBGGlobal.com
For the second straight season, Kansas and Southern Mississippi will be meeting on the football betting field. They had never met before last season when Kansas won 35-28. Each team comes into this contest at 1-1 and it figures to be a competitive contest on ESPN on Friday night.
Southern Miss is a 6 point favorite with a total of 51.5 at SBG Global.
Kansas was awful in their first game as they lost to North Dakota State at home but last week they came back and upset a ranked Georgia Tech team. Southern Miss has had a similar start as they were routed in their opener by South Carolina but last week they came back to win against Prairie View A&M.
Kansas is a very young team but one that is also very talented. They are going to be up and down because of their youth and that has been the case so far this NCAA football betting season. True freshman James Sims didn’t play in the opener but last week he rushed for 101 yards on just 17 carries. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan Webb threw for 179 yards and three TDs.
Southern Miss played better last week but Prairie View A&M is a team not even worth mentioning as an opponent. It is hard to know exactly how good Southern Miss is. They were simply terrible against South Carolina but the Gamecocks are looking like a top 20 team.
The line on this game is interesting with Southern Miss almost a touchdown favorite. Kansas showed last week they are capable of winning against top competition. Southern Miss has yet to do that. Even with Southern Miss at home this line seems way too high.
Here are the betting stats for Friday’s game. The Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games in September. The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf. The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
The Over is 5-1 in the Jayhawks last 6 non-conference games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jayhawks last 10 road games. The Over is 5-1 in the Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games.