Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
HUSKIES: (-4.5, O/U 42) Connecticut is 3-1 this season, both SU and ATS. Thus far, the point spread hasn't mattered in UCONN games this year. The Huskies have won their past 2 games at home thanks to an explosive offense, scoring more than 40 PTS in each game. UCONN is averaging nearly 210 rushing YPG this season, led by RB Jordan Todman. Todman has rushed for 638 YDS this season, including 7 TD's. For the Huskies to ultimately win the Big East this year, the passing game will need to improve. Unfortunately, the Huskies are far too one dimensional and predictable. The Huskies are improving on defense after a very shaky start to the season. UCONN is allowing 21 PPG this season, the 44th best mark in the nation. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. UCONN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Huskies are 9-4 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-0 last 6 conference games overall.
Key Injuries - T Adam Masters (arm) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
SCARLET KNIGHTS: Rutgers has been a tough team to figure out this year, as they haven't lived up to the expectations placed upon them. Rutgers only has 1 SU win against FBS competition, and are a terrible 0-4 ATS this season. The Scarlet Knights have yet to win a game at home this year against FBS competition, including a 3 point loss to Tulane last week. That loss to Tulane was inexcusable considering they were a 17 home favorite for that contest. Offensively, Rutgers has only scored 20 PTS or more once this season, and that was against FCS competition. The Scarlet Knights are very predicable on offense, and as a result are only averaging 19.3 PPG. This poor offense keeps this team from covering spreads when they are the listed favorite. The Scarlet Knights do have a sound defense, as they are only allowing 12 PPG, 4th best in the nation. No team has scored more than 14 PTS against them this year. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games overall. Rutgers is 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 PTS.
Over is 8-3 in the Scarlet Knights last 11 conference games.
Key Injuries - WR Phil Lewis (upper body) is probable.
Projected Score: 14
Oklahoma St. Cowboys at UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
COWBOYS: (-23.5, O/U 62) Oklahoma St. is off to a perfect 4-0 SU record, which has netted them the #23 ranking in the national polls. The Cowboys are also 3-1 ATS this year, with all 4 games coming as the listed favorite. Tonight will be the largest favorite spread the Cowboys have seen this year, and the 3rd time this season they've been a double digit favorite. Tonight's game will also be the first time this year that Oklahoma St. will play on the road. The Cowboys are 22-2 SU all time against the Sun Belt conference. Oklahoma St. has a dynamic offense that is averaging 52.3 PPG, 2nd most in the nation. QB Brandon Weeden has been amazing this season, managing this offense with the skill players he has at his disposal. WR Justin Blackmon has 558 receiving YDS this season with 9 TD's. Blackmon is ranked in the top 10 in most receiver categories in all of FBS teams. RB Kendall Hunter is averaging 143.5 rushing YPG this season, 6th in the nation. Defensively, the Cowboys must improve as they are allowing far too many points, 29.5 PPG to be exact. The Cowboys are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Oklahoma St. is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of more than 10 PTS.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or more.
Under is 11-2 last 13 road games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 51 (SIDE of the Day)
RAGIN CAJUNS: UL Lafayette is no stranger to playing against bigger conferences, as this team was able to beat Kansas St. outright last year at home. The Ragin Cajuns are coming off a very emotional road win at North Texas, where they blocked an extra point attempt for the win. UL Lafayette were a 5 point underdog in that game, so they will come into tonight's game feeling confident. The Rajin Cajuns have a slightly better passing game than running game, led by QB Chirs Masson. Masson threw for more than 300 YDS in his last game, and will be looking for something similar against a high powered offense like Oklahoma St. Unfortunately, the Ragin Cajuns are only averaging 20 PPG this year, 94th best in the nation. Defensively, UL Lafayette has given up at least 24 PTS to each opponent. They are allowing 35 PPG, the 12th worst in the country. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October. UL Lafayette is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the Big 12 conference. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.
Ragin Cajuns are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - WR Ross Goodlett (hamstring) is probable.
Projected Score: 17
What Bettors Need to Know: Friday's NCAAF Action
By Nick Parsons
We have two home underdogs Friday, with UConn playing Rutgers and the Oklahoma State Cowboys taking on the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns. Here’s a quick look at both of those games:
Connecticut Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+5, 41.5)
Why UConn will cover
For the Huskies, its all about the switch at quarterback. Under Zach Frazer, UConn got off to a mediocre 1-2 start and the passing offense had just two touchdowns, both against lowly Texas Southern. During the second half of the Buffalo game, coach Randy Edsall decided to put in Cody Endres, who ended up 7-for-11 for 139 yards and two TDs in an eventually 45-21 win.
The momentum carried over into last week’s 40-21 win over Vanderbilt. The Huskies’ current form couldn’t come at a better time with conference play beginning Friday night. Rutgers has yet to cover a spread this season and it has not shown much on offense, scoring just 19.2 points per game, which ranks 90th in the nation.
Why Rutgers will cover
For all the talk about Rutgers’s offensive woes, including the questionable status of quarterback Tom Savage, many are forgetting that statistically the Scarlet Knights have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 13th in yards allowed at 266.8 per game and are fourth in points allowed at 12.0 ppg. A key player on defense is Antonio Lowery, who recorded 13 tackles last week against Tulane.
This matchup has been close in recent years, with Rutgers winning 12-10 in 2008 and coming out on top again last year, beating UConn 28-24.
Notes and trends
The line opened at -6 in favor of UConn and has since moved down to -5 at most books. The under has moved a half point down to 41.5. The last three Rutgers games have gone under the total.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+24, 62)
Why Oklahoma State will cover
It will be hard to top the energy of last Thursday’s thriller against Texas A&M, but the Cowboys proved that they were a quality team last week. Twenty-four is a huge number, but Oklahoma State has the offensive fire power and personnel mismatches to cover that spread.
The only BCS team that the Ragin’ Cajuns have played was Georgia and they gave up 55 points again UGA. Now remember, this isn’t the Georgia team with Matt Stafford at the helm, this a Georgia team that ranks 79th in points scored.
Also in the last two years, UL Lafayette has failed to cover a game in which it was underdogs by 20 points or more.
Why UL Lafayette will cover
Rarely does a Sun Belt team get national TV attention, so with a ranked team coming for a visit you can expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to bring their best. This, oddly enough, is the first road game for Oklahoma State and ULL has recently done well against BCS teams at home, upsetting Kansas State last year 17-15. Quarterback Chris Mason has shown steady improvement and is coming off a 300-yard game.
Twenty-four points is a tough spread to cover for a team that ranks 97th in yards given up at 414.5 per game. There’s no doubt the Cowboys will get their points, but the weak defense combined with the second-string factor leave Oklahoma State vulnerable to a backdoor cover.
Notes and trends
One-point line movement from -23 to -24 was expected with last Thursday’s game still on the minds of most bettors. Huge difference in popular opinion with nearly 80 percent of wagers on Oklahoma State.
The total of 62 is high but justified, with both teams a combined 7-1 over/under this year.
UConn at Rutgers
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers get a doubleheader of college football games from the World Wide Leader Friday night. In a Big East clash, Rutgers will play host to Connecticut at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Ninety minutes later on ESPN2, Oklahoma St. will welcome Louisiana (formerly UL-Lafayette) to Stillwater.
As of late Thursday afternoon, most sports books were listing UConn (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 41 ½. Bettors can back the Scarlet Knights on the money line for a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).
Randy Edsall’s team has won back-to-back games both SU and ATS after a disappointing 1-2 start. The Huskies got spanked 30-10 by Michigan at The Big House in their opener as three-point underdogs. After a 62-3 win over Texas Southern in a non-lined affair, they lost by a 30-16 count at Temple as 4 ½-point road favorites.
In Week 4, UConn captured a 45-21 win over Buffalo as a 20-point home ‘chalk.’ Perhaps most importantly, junior quarterback Cody Endres established himself as the starter in the blowout win over the Bulls. Endres completed 7-of-11 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
This past Saturday, UConn scored 19 unanswered points in the second half to break a 21-21 tie and take a 40-21 victory over Vanderbilt as a 8 ½-point home favorite. Jordan Todman carried the load for the Huskies, rushing 37 times for 190 yards and two TDs. Blidi Wreh-Wilson put the game on ice with a 44-yard interception return for a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter.
Rutgers (2-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) has lost its last two games and has yet to cover a spread this year. The Scarlet Knights are coming off one of their worst losses in several seasons, dropping a 17-14 decision to Tulane as 17-point home favorites. The Green Wave hooked up money-line backers with an incredible plus-600 return (paid $600 on $100 wagers).
Sophomore QB Tom Savage left the Tulane game late in the first half with a hand injury. As of late Thursday afternoon, he was considered “questionable.” In Savage’s absence, true freshman Chas Dodd took over under center. Dodd connected on just 13-of-29 passes for 176 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Savage enjoyed an excellent freshman campaign, throwing for 2,211 yards with a 14/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But 2010 was already a struggle before the hand injury, as Savage had just one TD pass compared to three picks.
Greg Schiano’s squad opened the season with a ho-hum 31-0 win over Norfolk St. Next, the Scarlet Knights went to South Florida and barely emerged victorious in a 19-14 come-from-behind win at Florida International. Obviously, they failed to cover as 14 ½-point favorites against FIU.
Before last week’s loss to Tulane, North Carolina went into Piscataway and collected a 17-13 win as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ Savage threw for just 150 yards and was intercepted twice by the Tar Heels.
UConn’s Todman has rushed for 638 yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. But he’s going to have to be a major workhorse the next few weeks due to several injuries to his back-ups. Robbie Frey, who had a career-high 112 rushing yards in the win over Buffalo, had surgery this week and will miss several games. Also, Kelmetrus Wylie is out for the season with a leg injury.
When these schools met last year, RU went into Storrs and beat UConn 28-24 as a seven-point underdog. The 52 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 44-point total. Savage threw for 236 yards and three TDs without being picked off.
The ‘under’ has cashed in all three of RU’s games with a total this year, while UConn has seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 overall. However, the ‘under’ prevailed in the Huskies’ lone road game at Temple.
Rutgers has been a home underdog 25 times on Schiano’s watch, compiling a 15-10 spread record. Meanwhile, UConn owns a 9-4 spread ledger in 13 road ‘chalk’ spots during Edsall’s tenure.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Rutgers has beaten UConn in four of the last five head-to-head meetings, but the Huskies are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight encounters.
Oklahoma State (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is listed as a 23 ½-point favorite over the Ragin’ Cajuns. The total is 62 at most spots. The Cowboys have seen the ‘over’ hit in all four of their games, including last Thursday’s 38-35 win over Texas A&M as 2 ½-point home favorites.
Colorado owns a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games as a double-digit underdog. The Buffaloes are catching 12 ½ points Saturday at Missouri. The Tigers have won four in a row both SU and ATS in this Big 12 rivalry.
The underdog has won outright in each of the last five head-to-head meetings and seven of the last eight in the FSU-Miami rivalry. VI handicapper Andy Iskoe likes the Seminoles to continue this ‘dog trend Saturday in South Florida. “Whether Jacory Harris is healthy or not, I prefer Christian Ponder at the quarterback position because he’s a more polished passer,” Iskoe said. “Perhaps most importantly, I like what I’ve seen out of this FSU defense and its new coordinator Mark Stoops. The Seminoles are doing a much better job of defending the run. Not only do I like them plus the points, but I have them winning the game, 27-23.”
vegasinsider.com
UConn at Rutgers Preview
By: Brad Young
The Big East kicks off conference play on a national stage Friday night when Connecticut travels to Rutgers. The Huskies lead the conference in rushing offense with 209 yards per game, while the Scarlet Knights maintain the nation’s seventh-ranked rushing defense by allowing just 80 yards per contest.
UConn (3-2 straight up and against the spread) notched its second consecutive victory SU and ATS after upending Vanderbilt Saturday as an 8 ½-point home favorite, 40-21. The combined 61 points eclipsed the 45 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second game in a row. The Huskies have scored 40 points or more in their three victories, while scoring 16 points or less in the two losses.
The game was tied at halftime before UConn netted 19 points after the break. The Huskies finished the contest with advantages in first downs (19-10), rushing yards (196-169), passing yards (179-157), turnovers forced (3-2) and time of possession (36:20-23:40). Vanderbilt scored all three of its touchdowns in the second quarter.
UConn quarterback Cody Endres completed 21-of-30 passes for 179 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in his first start of the season. Running back Jordan Todman paced the ground game with 37 carries for 190 yards and two scores, while wideout Michael Smith caught four passes for 63 yards. Todman has now rushed for 100 yards or more in seven of his last eight games.
Rutgers (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) enters this matchup mired in a two-game losing skid after Saturday’s setback to Tulane as 17-point home ‘chalk,’ 17-14. The combined 31 points failed to eclipse the 42-point closing college football betting total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the third consecutive contest.
Most of the game stats were pretty even, but the Scarlet Knights did dominate in rushing yards (148-37). Starting quarterback Tom Savage was 2-of-5 passing for 29 yards before leaving the game with an injured hand. The sophomore is listed as ‘questionable’ for this contest.
Freshman backup Chas Dodd stepped in to complete 13-of-29 passes for 176 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Wideout Mohamed Sanu had five receptions for 70 yards and a score, while rushing nine times for 121 yards and a touchdown.
Rutgers has won the last two meetings with UConn SU, but the Huskies are 6-1-1 ATS the previous eight outings. The Scarlet Knights prevailed last season as a 7 ½-point road underdog, 28-24, while the combined 52 points toppled the 44-point closing total. The ‘over’ is 5-2 the past seven games in this series.
UConn follows this contest with its bye week before an Oct. 23 road trip against Louisville. The Huskies have seen the ‘over’ go 8-1 the last nine games when listed as the favorite, and they are 15-4 ATS their past 19 outings overall. Coach Randy Edsall’s team is 6-1-1 ATS the previous eight matchups with the Scarlet Knights, and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS the last eight games.
Rutgers concludes a four-game homestand next weekend against Army before embarking on a two-game conference road trip against Pittsburgh and South Florida. The Scarlet Knights have seen the ‘under’ go 15-5-1 their past 21 games in October, and the ‘under’ is also 7-3 the previous 10 home games.
UConn offensive tackle Adam Masters (arm) is ‘probable’ versus the Scarlet Knights, while running back Jonathan Jean-Louis (upper body) and defensive end Jesse Joseph (leg) are ‘questionable.’ Offensive tackle Jimmy Bennett (hand), running back Robbie Frey (knee) and linebacker David Kenney (leg) are ‘out.’
Rutgers tight end Evan Lampert (lower body) and wide receiver Phil Lewis (upper body) are ‘questionable’ against the Huskies. Linebacker Jim Dumont (knee), fullback Robert Joseph (lower body) and fullback Edmond Laryea (knee) are ‘out.’
Friday’s weather forecast for Piscataway, New Jersey calls for sunny skies, with a high of 72 degrees and a low of 50.
Oklahoma St. is 24-point road favorite at ULL
By: Brian Graham
Oklahoma State brings its high-powered offense to Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns. The Cowboys are second in the nation with 52.3 PPG, thanks to QB Brandon Weeden (315 pass YPG), WR Justin Blackmon (nation-best 140 rec. YPG) and RB Kendall Hunter (144 rush YPG, sixth in FBS). La Lafayette has allowed the 3rd-most points in the nation (35 PPG) and lost its last game against a BCS team, 55-7 to Georgia.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been stellar, but its defense has certainly not. Despite forcing 12 turnovers in their past three games, the Cowboys have still allowed 101 points over that span. After surrendering 535 yards to Texas A&M last week, OSU now ranks 96th among FBS schools in total defense (415 YPG).
UL Lafayette’s defensive unit isn’t much better, ranking 93rd in total defense (409 YPG). The Cajuns don’t have a stellar offense either, averaging just 314 YPG (95th in nation). Their top rusher Kevis Streeter is averaging below 40 YPG, but he will not play Friday because of knee problems. QB Chris Masson has done a nice job taking care of the football (5 TD, 1 INT in 103 pass attempts). But his favorite receiver, TE Ladarius Green (14 rec., 222 yds, 3 TD in three games) missed last game and is listed as doubtful Friday night due to an ankle injury.
These teams have met four times since 1997, with OSU winning each game by at least 17 points. The past three contests saw OSU favored by 35, 34 and 37 points, but they only covered once. This FoxSheets trend shows why Oklahoma State can cover a more manageable spread:
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).
Oklahoma State’s over/under total has averaged 62 points this year, but the Cowboys have gone Over every time. Three out of four ULL games have gone over too. Despite the total being in the low-60s, FoxSheets likes the Over again on Friday night.
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OKLAHOMA ST) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).