NCAAF: Games to Watch - Week 1
By Chris David
Thursday - Oregon at Boise State (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)
Skinny
Arguably the best game on the board this week happens in Idaho, when No. 14 Boise State welcomes No. 16 Oregon to the "smurf turf." A lot of folks believe that if the Bronocs and head coach Chris Peterson can win this tilt, they'll have a great shot to run the table an earn a BCS berth. QB Kellen Moore leads a Boise attack that averaged 37.6 PPG last year, but the gunslinger will be without his top two receivers and starting running back this season. The Broncos' defense only gave up 12.6 PPG last year and that unit will be tested against an Oregon offense that posted 41.9 PPG in 2008. The Ducks posted 55, 65 and 42 points to close the year. QB Jeremiah Masoli returns and he's got plenty of talent around him. This game will be the first go 'round for Oregon head coach Chip Kelly. He's familiar with the program and the mastermind of the attack, having been the Ducks' offensive coordinator the past two years.
Gambling Notes
Boise State dropped Oregon 37-32 last year as a 10-point underdog in Eugene. The Broncos led 24-6 at the half and still won despite getting outscored 19-0 in the final 15 minutes. Moore was sharp in the victory, completing 24-of-36 passes for 386 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon did play with its third string QB in the second half due to injuries, yet they still managed to put up 464 yards on offense. Including this win, Boise State is still only 3-11 against Pac 10 opponents. Despite last year's loss, Oregon had won 15 in a row against the WAC dating back to 1996. The Ducks have gone 8-7 ATS during this run, and covered four in a row. Last year, the combined 69 points easily jumped 'over' the total. Thursday's number has been hovering between 63 and 64 points. Gamblers can back the Ducks with four points on the spread or look for the outright victory at a plus-160 return.
Saturday - Georgia at Oklahoma State (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Skinny
The SEC and Big 12 fans continue to argue over which conference is better and Week 1 presents an opportunity to brag, as No. 13 Georgia invades Stillwater for a battle against No. 9 Oklahoma State. The Bulldogs received a lot of hype last year and failed to live up to expectations but still managed a respectable 10-3 mark. Mark Richt will look to senior QB Joe Cox to replace Matthew Stafford behind center and a slew of running backs to step in for the departed Knowshon Moreno. The Bulldogs' defense (24.5 PPG) dropped off a bit in 2008 but the unit brings back seven of their top nine tacklers. While Georgia is looking for playmakers on offense, Oklahoma State wishes it had more balls to go around. The trio of QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant could be the best in the nation. The problem with the Cowboys is their defense, which gave up 28.4 PPG last year.
Gambling Notes
Georgia easily handled Oklahoma State 35-14 in Athens two years ago, but most of the personnel have already left each squad. What was noticeable in the loss for the Cowboys was their inability to match the Bulldogs' team speed. This game will be played in Oklahoma, where the Cowboys have rattled off 13 straight home openers. However, Georgia has won eight straight road openers and it's succeeded with defense. The Dawgs have allowed an average 11.2 PPG in their last five road openers. It could be tough to see that number this week, especially against the OSU attack. The oddsmakers agreed, opening the 'over/under' at 64 points for this non-conference battle. Keep in mind that the total has since dropped to 61.
Saturday - BYU vs. Oklahoma from Dallas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Skinny
Some schools get knocked for cupcake schedules but nobody better take a shot at Bob Stoops and No. 3 Oklahoma. Along with the Big 12 gauntlet, the Sooners face Tulsa, Miami, Fl., and their week 1 opponent No. 20 Brigham Young. QB Sam Bradford and Oklahoma's explosive offense (51.1 PPG) catch all the press in Norman, yet the defense is considered one of the best under Stoops' watch. BYU quarterback Max Hall has the skill players to put up some points, but he could be under pressure with a revamped offensive line in the opener. The Cougars' defense brings back nine players and most will be interested to see how the new Sooners' offensive line holds up against an experienced unit. This game will be played at the new Cowboys stadium, which seats 80,000 plus. Most would expect a lot of Oklahoma faithful in the crowd.
Gambling Notes
The oddsmakers are expecting a 45-23 Oklahoma victory based on the current numbers (Sooners -22, 68) and it very well could happen. Last year, the Sooners went 13-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. In the 10 ATS victories, the Sooners-Over parlay cashed an eye opening nine times. Will the betting public get a nice primetime gift again in Week 1? The Cougars went 4-3 outside of Provo last year, but they hurt gamblers with a 1-5 record. The SU losses came against quality conference opponents in TCU and Utah, plus a setback against Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. The 'over/under' for this game has been set at 68, which is the highest total for Week 1.
Saturday - Alabama vs. Virginia Tech from Atlanta (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Skinny
Alabama went 12-0 regular in the 2008 regular season and the school started on a strong note with a confidence-building 34-10 over Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Classic from Georgia Dome. This year, the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide returns to Atlanta this weekend and they face another tough test against No. 7 Virginia Tech. Nick Saban's squad (14.3 PPG) showed their defensive prowess last year and the unit should be even better in his third term at Tuscaloosa behind NT Terrence Cody. The offense loses some leadership in RB Glen Coffee and QB John Parker Wilson but still has WR Julio Jones on the outside. The Hokies' attack suffered a tough loss before the season started when RB Darren Evans (1,310) hurt his knee in practice. The loss of Evans for the season means QB Tyrod Taylor will have to carry more weight on his shoulders. Frank Beamer and the Hokies' defense lost some talent but they seem to rebuild every year in Blacksburg, especially on that side of the ball.
Gambling Notes
Virginia Tech has gone 11-2 in its last 13 openers but the two losses came on neutral fields to USC (24-13) at FedEx Field and last year to East Carolina (27-22) in Charlotte. The Hokies haven't fared well against the SEC in recent years, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in the last three battles. Alabama went 5-2 both SU and ATS in games away from home in 2008. These two schools haven't squared off since meeting in the 1998 Music City Bowl when V-Tech pasted Alabama 38-7. Not that it matters, but the Crimson Tide have won the other 10 meetings. Defense is stressed by both schools and the opening total of 38 is the lowest 'over/under' posted for Week 1.
Other Games to Watch
Nevada at Notre Dame
The oddsmakers believe Notre Dame is ready to return to prominence but the school from South Bend shouldn't be too confident. The Irish are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four openers under Charlie Weis. Plus, they face a Nevada team that can light up the scoreboard, especially if quarterback Colin Kaepernick gets going. Catching two touchdowns seems tempting, especially against a squad that's emptied out piggy banks in the past.
LSU at Washington
It will be interesting to see how LSU responds with a cross-country trip to Washington in Week 1. The Tigers have been listed as healthy double-digit favorites and deservingly so against a Huskies team that went 0-12 last year. UW will begin the Steve Sarkisian era in Seattle and fortunately for him, he's got QB Jake Locker returning to the lineup. We'll get to see how good he is against a feisty LSU defense that is hungry after a mediocre 8-5 season.
Miami, Fl. at Florida State
Week 1 of the college football schedule ends on Monday with a battle between the Hurricanes and Seminoles from Tallahassee. The two teams have played three times on Labor Day and all three have been solid battles. The Seminoles have won twice by three points (13-10, 10-7), while the 'Canes captured a six-point win (16-10) in 2004. The one common trend in these games is the lack of offense, which has helped the 'under' go 3-0. Will that run continue on the holiday?
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