Games to Watch - Week 3
By Chris David
Even though there are only two games that feature ranked teams going head-to-head, the entire slate has some intriguing matchups that could be telling toward the entire year for some teams.
Let's take a quick look at 11 contests for this weekend that are worth watching.
Week 3
Thursday - Georgia Tech at Miami, Fl. (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.)
Gamblers get a tricky one to handicap in South Florida on Thursday when the Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes collide. Miami (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) hasn't played since its 38-34 thrilling upset against Florida State on Labor Day, plus Georgia Tech (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) has had extra time to prepare as well after defeating Clemson 30-27 last Thursday. The Hurricanes (+6) cashed outright against the 'Noles, while the Yellow Jackets failed to cover as four-point home favorites. G-Tech has won and covered four in a row against Miami, including a 41-23 romp last year in Atlanta. A lot of people wrote Randy Shannon and the 'Canes off after looking at their early schedule but another big win here would silence those critics. Even though the Jackets have the higher ranking, Miami is laying four points at most outlets. Total players should note that the last two games played between these two in South Florida have gone 'under' the total.
Friday - Boise State at Fresno State (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Do we have an upset special on tap this Friday? Pat Hill and Fresno State (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) certainly hope so but it will take a monumental effort on Friday against Boise State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS). Most pundits believe this will probably be the last test for BSU and if they can leave here with a win, then a BCS bowl berth seems inevitable. The Bulldogs looked good last week in their 34-31 loss to Wisconsin except for a few big plays given up on defense. Boise State has owned this series recently, going 7-1 both SU and ATS in the last eight. Even though Boise State ripped Fresno 61-10 last year, the Broncos only led 13-10 at the half before erupting for 48 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes. BSU head coach Chris Peterson has gone 7-7 ATS as a road favorite, and that includes a 4-1 mark last year.
Saturday - California at Minnesota (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Is California (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) a title contender? Better yet, would you consider the Pac 10 soft if you took out USC? No, yes. Those are my answers and until somebody proves me wrong, I'm not sold on anybody in the conference until they take the crown from Pete Carroll and Troy. The Golden Bears do have some talent, especially RB Jahvid Best. However, we'll find out how good he is real soon considering the schedule Cal faces. After this game, the Golden Bears square off against Oregon, USC and UCLA. Head coach Jeff Tedford has had success in his tenure against the Big 10, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, which includes a 42-17 win over Minnesota in 2006. The Big 10 had two chances last week to gain some respect against the Pac 10 but both Purdue and Ohio State came up short. Can Minnesota (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) step up this weekend? They'll need to pick up the rush defense, which gave up 261 yards in last week's 20-13 victory against Air Force. The new stadium was rocking for the Gophers last week and could help in this spot, especially as a live 'dog. Who will be Golden this week, the Bears or Gophers?
Saturday - Michigan State at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)
Two schools that are probably still kicking themselves after last week's outcomes are definitely Michigan State (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) and Notre Dame (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS). The Spartans fell to Central Michigan 29-27 at home as 14 ½-point favorites, while the Irish couldn't hold on to a late lead in their 38-34 setback to Michigan. After watching Michigan State play, it's fair to say that the better team won last Saturday in CMU. However, Notre Dame moved the ball up and down on Michigan for 490 yards and cost itself throughout the contest. The Spartans used two quarterbacks last week and it definitely messed up the team chemistry. The only thing that disturbed me about ND is that they should pound RB Armando Allen (139 yards) more. Revenge is definitely on the mind of Charlie Weis and the Irish, since Michigan State has won and covered the last two meetings by double digits. The 'over' has gone 4-1 in the last five games.
Saturday - Utah at Oregon (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
What happens when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team? If you've betting on college sports, then you should know the answer. Oregon (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) hasn't looked great by any means this year but is No. 18 Utah (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) the real deal? Last year's Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and the Utes' unbeaten 13-0 season has helped their reputation heading into 2009. Sloppy wins over Utah State (35-17) and San Jose State (24-14) to start the year have been unimpressive and could make the faithful in Salt Lake City worry. Back-to-back road trips are tough for any team and even though the Utes have fared well against the Pac 10 at home, they've been humbled in their last two road games against Pac 10 foes. This game is a possible look-ahead for Oregon, who has a conference home opener against California (see above) next Saturday. If Utah escapes Eugene with a win, the next six games appear to be very winnable with exception to a road battle against UNLV.
Saturday - Nebraska at Virginia Tech (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
After watching Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fall from the pedestal in consecutive weeks, Nebraska (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has a chance to put the Big 12 back on the map with a non-conference victory at Virginia Tech (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) this Saturday. The Cornhuskers have looked solid against a pair of Sun Belt schools, outscoring them 87-12 in the first two weeks. The Hokies bounced back from their opening Week 1 loss to Alabama (34-24) with a 52-10 thrashing of Marshall last Saturday. Last year, QB Tyrod Taylor totaled 258 offensive yards as V-Tech earned a 35-30 win at Nebraska. Despite the loss, the Cornhuskers have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four games against the ACC. Frank Beamer's team has always been a tough out in Blacksburg, especially against non-conference foes (10-0 run). Even though this one of the two matchups between ranked schools this week, V-Tech could be looking ahead to an ACC showdown against Miami, Fl. next week.
Saturday - Tulsa at Oklahoma (FSN, 3:30 p.m.)
Is Landry Jones the answer in Norman? The freshman quarterback tossed for 286 yards and three scores in Oklahoma's (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) 64-0 victory over Idaho State last Saturday. Still, most aren't forgetting the loss of QB Sam Bradford or the 14-13 upset to BYU but the win did give the team much needed confidence. The Sooners' defense only gave up 44 yards, which is what they could give up on one play this Saturday when Tulsa (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) comes to town. The Golden Hurricane offense has posted 44 and 37 in their first two games and both efforts were on the road too. Three straight road games are tough for any school, and that's what Tulsa faces this weekend. Oklahoma has won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series but the point-spread (15.5) on this week's matchup is the lowest number in the last five. That certainly says something about Tulsa, or perhaps it tells us how the oddsmakers feel about Bob Stoops' banged-up crew.
Saturday - Tennessee at Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
All the hoopla surrounding Tennessee (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) and its hiring of head coach Lane Kiffin will come to a head on Saturday when the team travels to Gainesville against No. 1 Florida (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS). If you take away the trash talking and bulletin board material, this game looks lopsided and the oddsmakers agree. The Volunteers came back to earth last Saturday as they lost to UCLA 19-15 at home, burning up the betting public's bankroll. While UT was falling, Florida was flying albeit against Troy (56-3). The Gators started slow but finished strong and totaled 663 yards on offense, plus the defense only gave up 139 yards. Urban Meyer hasn't lost to Tennessee since he joined Florida, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Two of the three have come by double digits, including a 59-20 win from Gainesville in 2007. Most are expecting the Gators to eclipse that number this Saturday.
Saturday - Cincinnati at Oregon State (FSN, 6:45 p.m.)
Why is Cincinnati (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) only catching a point in Corvallis on Saturday? It tells me a lot because I would expect Oregon State (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) to be tabbed at least a three-point favorite at home. The books know something here and right now they believe the Bearcats and QB Tony Pike (77%, 591 yards, 6 TDs) are a team to be reckoned with even though they did beat up Rutgers and SE Missouri State. The Beavers haven't looked sharp early and were fortunate to beat UNLV (23-21) last Saturday but they did so without starting QB Lyle Moevao, who is 'questionable' again this week. Cross-country trips are tough on any school, but Brian Kelly's team has gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in previous encounters to the West Coast the past two years against San Diego State (52-23) and Hawaii (29-24). In 2007, Cincy pasted Oregon State 34-3 at home with the help of seven turnovers by the Beavers. Don't be surprised to see the 'Cats close as favorites here.
Saturday - Florida State at Brigham Young (Versus, 7:00 p.m.)
The road to the BCS for Brigham Young (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) continues this weekend at home when Florida State (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) visits Provo. The Cougars will be playing their first game at home after defeating Oklahoma (14-13) in Dallas and Tulane (54-3) in the Big Easy. QB Max Hall (638 yards, 71.4%) is having a great year and the Cougars' scheme could have the overzealous FSU defense. The Seminoles only gave up nine points last week, but unfortunately the offense didn't show up in a 19-9 win over Jacksonville State. Bobby Bowden's team had a serious chance to lose this game and if the ball bounces the other way, the Seminoles could easily be 0-2. Gamblers should be aware that this will be FSU's third football game played in the last 12 days, which is tough to ask anybody to do. It seems like an impossible trip for the Seminoles on Saturday, especially when you factor in the travel, altitude and visiting crowd. Then you look at the opponent in BYU, who has gone 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS in the last three years at home. The line opened at seven but I expect it to jump and jump high. The only thing that may irk some on this matchup is that DirecTV users won't be able to watch it since its being played on Versus, which could be a good thing for FSU backers.
Saturday - Texas Tech at Texas (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
I heard WR Michael Crabtree is coming back for this one…that's a joke folks, and so is he. The malcontent helped Texas Tech (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) edge Texas 39-33 last year in Lubbock by catching the game-winning TD with one tick left on the clock. The loss for the Longhorns eliminated their chances to win the Big 12 and possibly the national title too. To say that Texas (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has had this game circled for a long time is an understatement and most would expect Mack Brown to have his squad focused. The Longhorns have outscored their first two opponents 100-30, while the Red Raiders have put up 93 and only allowed 23 points in their two wins. T-Tech QB Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) seems to have a good grip on Mike Leach's offense in Lubbock but back-to-back road games against Texas this week and Houston the following weekend are tough tests. Six of the last seven in this series have gone 'over' the total.
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