Games to Watch - Week 6
By Chris David
While we never like to look ahead, especially with some great games on tap this week, gamblers should circle Week 7 on their calendar. The action starts on Wednesday with a Boise State-Tulsa matchup and picks up the pace the very next night with a Big East battle between unbeaten foes Cincinnati and South Florida. Then on Saturday, you have the Red River Shootout between the Longhorns and Sooners, USC-Notre Dame and plenty of other must-see matchups.
Enough teasing, let's get back to this weekend and the "Battle at Baton Rouge" on Saturday.
Week 6
Saturday - Florida at LSU
Top-ranked Florida (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) and No. 4 LSU (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) knock heads on Saturday from Baton Rouge in what's easily the biggest game of the college football season. The winner of this matchup has won the past three BCS national championships and a fourth could be just around the corner. All the focus for this week's tilt is on Gators quarterback Tim Tebow, whose status is still up in the air but most believe he'll play. Tebow and UF own the second-best scoring offense (45 PPG) in the nation and they should be tested against LSU's aggressive defense (14 PPG). Florida has had two weeks to prepare for this battle, while the Tigers are coming off an emotional 20-13 road victory against Georgia last Saturday. It was the second straight week that LSU needed to make big plays down the stretch and Les Miles team answered with emphatic finishes. Last week, the offense rattled off a game-winning touchdown against the Bulldogs and two weeks prior it was the LSU defense that rose to the occasion with a goal line stand against Mississippi State (30-26). UGA is a decent team but still probably the fourth or fifth best team in the conference, which makes you wonder if the Tigers are ripe for a beating? LSU defeated Washington 31-23 in its road opener, but are the Huskies any good or just a lucky squad that caught USC in a letdown spot? Those questions will be answered this week and the individual that can make a statement for LSU is QB Jordan Jefferson (920 yards, 7 TDS). The Tigers attack is ranked dead-last (321 YPG) in the SEC and it really doesn't have an identity despite having playmakers in the backfield and on the outside. This unit will be tested on every down against Florida, who is ranked first nationally in defensive yards (212.8) and second in points (7.3) allowed.
GAMBLING NOTES
The Gators have been made favorites (-8) again and not surprisingly, they'll more than likely be for the remainder of their games too. Except for a possible road trap against South Carolina on Nov. 14, this is arguably the last test for Urban Meyer's team before a possible SEC Championship and eventually the BCS title game. You don't crown champions on paper and it's easy to see why you would need a perfect game to beat Florida. One factor that LSU has on its side is turnovers. LSU has only given the ball up four times, opposed to eight mistakes from Florida. The Gators lead 29-23-3 in the all-time series with LSU with the home team winning four straight. Florida has covered four in a row despite going 2-2 SU. The total has gone 2-2. Last year, the Gators blasted the Tigers 51-21 as seven-point favorites in wire-to-wire fashion. Les Miles has only been tabbed a home underdog once in his tenure at LSU and he's 0-1 both SU and ATS, losing last year to top-ranked Alabama 27-21 in overtime. Even if LSU pulls off the upset, Florida still has the easier path to avenge a loss in the SEC title game, which could be against the Tigers or Alabama.
Other Games to Watch
Thurday - Nebraska at Missouri (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
The six schools that make up the North Division in the Big 12 haven't received much respect in recent years, and deservingly so too. The conference has been owned by the South, in particular Oklahoma and Texas. Not many pundits believe Nebraska (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) or Missouri (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) can knock off the Sooners or Longhorns, but one of the two will gain more confidence after this week's head-to-head battle from Columbia. Both schools are listed in the Top 25 but neither owns a signature win. Nebraska's three victories have come against Sun Belt opponents and the lone loss was at Virginia Tech (16-15), who might be a tad overrated as well. Missouri shouldn't get much credit either, considering its four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12. Nebraska's defense is ranked third nationally in scoring defense (7 PPG) and 23rd in total yards (285 YPG). Missouri did lose QB Chase Daniels to graduation but sophomore Blaine Gabbert (1,161 yards, 11 TDs) has proven to be a solid predecessor behind center. Missouri is catching points in this primetime showdown and gamblers should note that it has won and covered three of the last four against the Cornhuskers, plus all three wins came by double digits.
Saturday - Auburn at Arkansas (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Auburn (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) was coming off a brutal campaign in 2008 and the hiring of new coach Gene Chizik was met rudely. Sure enough, Chizik has turned things around rather quickly on The Plains. A lot of his success can be attributed to the hiring of offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn, who has the Tigers' offense (41 PPG, 512 YPG) ranked fifth nationally in points and yards. Malzahn could have this week's game against Arkansas (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) circled since he's from the area and he left the program after a brief stint. The Razorbacks and head coach Bobby Petrino have some fire power as well, and they showed it last Saturday by dropping 47 points on Texas A&M, who was also unbeaten at the time. QB Ryan Mallett (11 TDs), a Michigan transfer, has looked sharp and he spreads the ball around to his backs and receivers. Arkansas upset Auburn 25-20 last year as a heavy 16.5-point road underdog, which shouldn't come as a surprise since the visitor has won and covered four in a row. Will the Tigers get revenge and keep the road trend going? The 'under' has gone 3-1 during this span but the oddsmakers don't believe we're going to see a slugfest on Saturday, listing the total at 66.
Saturday - Boston College at Virginia Tech (Gameplan, 12:00 p.m.)
Nobody expected Boston College (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) to be a contender in the ACC this year but the school has put itself in contention with a back-to-back home wins over Wake Forest (27-24) and Florida State (28-21). The Eagles will face a tougher test this Saturday when meet No. 6 Virginia Tech (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) in Blacksburg. The Hokies looked flat in their 34-26 win at Duke last Saturday, yet that was expected after knocking off Miami 31-7 two weeks prior. Unknown for the passing game, V-Tech saw QB Tyrod Taylor put up 327 yards and two scores against the Blue Devils. Boston College has won the last two regular season battles in this series, but Virginia Tech has gotten revenge each time by winning the rematch in the ACC Championship. The total has gone 2-2 during this stretch. Little bit of a look-ahead here as VT heads to Atlanta for a key ACC Coastal battle against Georgia Tech. Things don't get easier for BC, who's next three include N.C. State, Notre Dame and Central Michigan.
Saturday - Alabama at Mississippi (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Even though the UF-LSU battle is the Game of the Week, this SEC matchup could've been just as big if Mississippi (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) was unbeaten? The Rebels are still ranked but they haven't played a solid game all year, even looking sluggish in their 23-7 win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Third-ranked Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) comes to town with its ground-and-pound attack and most would argue that Ole Miss will be overmatched in a 60-minute contest. The one thing we do know about this game is that this series has been real tight. The Crimson Tide have won four in a row but they failed to cover the number in all four games, plus all four during this stretch have been decided by four points or less. Most sportsbooks have Alabama listed as a six-point road 'chalk' for Saturday. The Rebels haven't been catching points yet this year, but the team did go 5-0 ATS as underdogs last year and that included outright wins against highly ranked schools in Florida, LSU and Texas Tech. Does history repeat itself in Oxford?
Saturday - Wisconsin at Ohio State (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Wisconsin (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is one of 13 schools that remain unbeaten in college football and it's fair to say that the school is a product of its inferior competition. The Badgers will find out how good they are in the next two weeks, when it meets Ohio State (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) this Saturday in Columbus before playing Iowa at home on Oct. 17. The Buckeyes are laying two touchdowns at most sportsbooks and it's hard to argue against the home team in this spot. After giving up 45 points and going 1-1 in the first two games, Ohio State's defense posted back-to-back shutouts before stifling Indiana to 14 points last Saturday. Wisconsin's offense leads the Big 10 in scoring (35 PPG), and it has a workhorse that can move the ball in running back John Clay (582 yards, 7 TDs). Plus, quarterback Scott Tolzien (65.6%, 1,043 yards, 9 TDs) has proven that he can make plays too albeit against weaker opponents. The Buckeyes edged the Badgers 20-17 last year on a game-winning scamper by quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Gamblers should note that Wisconsin is 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three trips to Columbus.
Saturday - Michigan at Iowa (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Michigan (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) and Iowa (5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) don't play every year due to the conference scheduling and that's probably a good thing for the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have won three straight and 10 of the previous 12 meetings, with the last encounter happening in 2005. These two squads meeting this Saturday are hard to gauge just because of whom they played but we do know the winner will gain confidence heading into the final six matches. Iowa earned its signature win two weeks ago at Penn State (21-10) but struggled against lower-tier opponents (Northern Iowa, Arkansas State) this year. Michigan has been playing with fire all year too and was finally was burned last Saturday in a 26-20 overtime loss to intrastate rival Michigan State. The Wolverines' offense against the Hawkeyes' defense looks like a wash but Iowa could have its way against a Wolverines' defense has been suspect this year, giving up 392 YPG. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite in the last 15 spots at Iowa and his team is favored by 7-8 points at most books.
Three More to Keep an Eye on
Oregon vs. UCLA
Don't look now but Oregon (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has quietly rung up four straight wins and a victory over UCLA (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) will help the school through a tough stretch. After this game, the Ducks travel to Washington before a home showdown versus USC. If that upset happens, then look out for the Nov. 7 game against Stanford. The home team has won three in a row and the 'under' has cashed in all three of those games.
TCU vs. Air Force
The table for TCU (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is all set for a serious BCS run and it starts this weekend at Air Force (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Horned Frogs play four on the road and four at home in their Mountain West Conference schedule and this meeting is probably one of the two games that could be traps, the other being two weeks later in Provo against Brigham Young. TCU's defense is one of the best in the country but covering close to double digits on the road is never easy in conference play.
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
Is Bobby Bowden's historic career done at Florida State (2-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)? Just when you count the Seminoles out, they'll usually come back and bite you in the ass and Georgia Tech (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ripe this Saturday. People forget that FSU's three losses have come by a combined 18 points against teams with a combined record of 12-2. And, you can't expect to win games when you constantly make mistakes. If FSU plays perfect, it can rip anybody. Just ask BYU…
vegasinsider.com