NCAAF Hot Seat Updates
By Bruce Marshall
In a sense, all college football coaches are on the proverbial "hot seat" each season. Only a handful of mentors are insulated from ridicule and job concerns after even just one decidedly subpar campaign.
Still, it’s not too hard to identify which coaches need to turn things around, and quickly, to keep their jobs...even if we’re just two weeks into the 2010 campaign.
The prospects are troubling for any coach who appears on this list, especially considering that we’ve seen a whopping 44 coaching changes over the past two years, the most we can ever recall over a 2-year span. Coaches are not getting as much time to turn around losing programs, and even veteran mentors are quickly finding themselves in trouble if their fortunes decline for more than one year. Ironically, some of the under-fire mentors can count a struggling economy as an unlikely ally, with some schools being reluctant to fork over hefty buyouts in the current environment. A few coaches benefited from that development after last season.
And it’s never too soon in a campaign for a coach to find himself on "the seat;" already, a few new names are appearing on this list that we earlier ran in the offseason. Following are the coaches we believe are sitting on the "hottest" seats as the season approaches its third week.
BOILING HOT:
Dan Hawkins, Colorado...A lot of Buff boosters were surprised that Hawkins was given one more year to turn things around in Boulder. There was no evidence of progress in last year’s 3-9 season that began with ugly losses vs. underdog Colorado State and Toledo contingents (with CU looking particularly organized on defense vs. the latter during a national TV embarrassment in early September) and was spared further humiliation by a pair of extremely narrow home wins over Kansas (34-30) and Texas A&M (35-34). Hawkins even acknowledged his good fortune in holding on to his job for another year, but what he can really thank is his contract that would have called for a $3 million buyout, one the school (and an athletic department swimming in red ink) simply wasn’t prepared to swallow. Hawkins began this season encouragingly against rival Colorado State, but the vultures are circling again in Boulder after last week when Cal humiliated the Buffs by a 52-7 count in Berkeley. With the school slated to move to the Pac-10 next year (although a complicated escape clause might delay the move to 2012), Hawkins does not figure to be around for the new chapter if coming off another losing season. And now at 17-34 with four consecutive losing seasons, Hawkins is not likely to be tossed another life-line by the administration next December. It’s bowl or else, and maybe decent bowl or else, for Hawkins and the Buffs in 2010.
Ron Zook, Illinois... The Fighting Illini have lost all of the momentum from their surprise Rose Bowl visit in 2007, slipping to a pair of sub-.500 seasons since, including the 3-9 campaign of 2009. Some Big Ten observers were surprised Zook was given another chance by AD Ron Guenther to turn things around. Espcially since sources say the Illini had the money available to facilitate a buyout. Regardless, Guenther (and others) have suggested that Zook rely a bit more on his assistants and stop being such a micro-manager. A clean sweep of much of the coaching staff followed the recent 3-9 disappointment, with new coordinators brought in for both the offense (Paul Petrino, from Arkansas) and defense (Vic Koenning, from Kansas State). A few Illini observers are wondering if Guenther might have Petrino (considered an up-and-comer) in mind as a possible successor to Zook, although that might create quite an awkward situation on the staff. The jury is still out on the new offensive and defensive schemes after a loss to Missouri (when the Illini blew a 13-3 lead) and a win over Southern Illinois. A loss this week vs. Northern Illinois would put Zook clearly on the ropes before the Big Ten season even gets underway.
Mike Locksley, New Mexico... Let’s be kind and say that things haven’t gotten any better for Locksley in the first two weeks of this season, outscored 124-17 by Oregon and Tennessee. The Lobos only avoided the big donut in ‘09 thanks to a late-season 29-27 win over Colorado State, but by all other accounts, Locksley’s tenure in Albuquerque has been an absolute disaster, marred by a discrimination suit brought forth by a former athletic department employee, then a fight with assistant coach J.B. Gerald that eventually caused Locksley to be suspended for the Lobos’ game vs. UNLV last season. And we haven’t even talked about the miserable on-field product that has so far disappointed (that’s putting it mildly) with Locksley’s version of the spread and a defense that was one of the nation’s worst. All of this despite what looks on the surface to be an accomplished coaching staff. But it is certainly not lost on the New Mexico faithful that the Lobos are now getting obliterated in the sorts of games where Locksley predecessor Rocky Long (who was pushed out by impatient administrators and boosters) usually had the Lobos competitive. It would be no surprise if Locksley doesn’t last the regular season if New Mexico continues its fall into the abyss.
Todd Dodge, North Texas... Although things started off encouragingly this season with a respectable showing at Clemson, bad luck has again hit Dodge’s UNT squad with QB Nathan Tune suffering a dislocated hip late in the second game vs. Rice (a bitter 32-31 Mean Green loss). This is now looking eerily similar to a year ago when UNT played well in its opening win at Ball State, then lost a 1-point home decision to Ohio U when then-QB Riley Dodge (Todd’s son) was KO’d by injury, much like Tune last week. Dodge has to be careful of things going pear-shaped as they have done each of his first three seasons, and with a 3-year record of 5-33 after the Clemson and Rice losses, Dodge is running out of time to forge a turnaround. They’re also scheduled to open a new stadium next year at UNT, and Sun Belt sources have indicated that Dodge is under a mandate to get to .500 or else face the consequences. Keep an eye on this situation.
Bob Toledo, Tulane... Toledo’s regime has yet to gain any traction in New Orleans, struggling to a 10-28 mark over the past three + seasons, causing some to wonder if the Wave can ever become relevant again on the gridiron. Toledo admittedly inherited a mess in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but some C-USA sources believed Toledo was fortunate to survive last year’s 3-9 campaign that featured numerous lopsided beatings (54-3 vs. BYU, 43-6 vs. Southern Miss, 42-0 vs. LSU, and 49-0 vs. UCF). Toledo has a slew of returnees in 2010, and there have been some moments of encouragement while splitting the opening pair vs. SE Louisiana and Ole Miss, with QB Ryan Griffin providing some real hope. But Tulane seems a long way from bowl caliber and the type of season that might save Toledo’s job, with a bigger question being whether the Green Wave should still be bothering with the football exercise after a painful decade, filled mostly with defeats and despair.
Paul Wulff, Washington State... The Cougs posted a rare win last Saturday for Wulff, but waited until the final seconds to beat Big Sky Montana State, 23-22, a game in which the Bobcats led most of the way and seemed in control when up 22-7 in the 3rd quarter. It provides a stay of execution for Wulff, who could have been in immediate danger had Wazzu lost to MSU. It is no secret that with a new AD, Cougar alum and ex-Oregon AD Bill Moos, on the job, Wulff is on the clock this fall. Which is hardly a comforting scenario with Wazzu 4-23 on his watch, with two of those wins in overtime and the other by a single point last week. It is not lost on pac-10 observers that Wulff inherited bare cupboard and a program that had tailed off under predecessor Bill Doba, but nobody expected the calamity that has resulted in the Palouse, with the team simply non-competitive. Soph QB Jeff Tuel offers some hope for the future, but the product has been so wretched under Wulff that it would be impossible to envision him surviving another similar debacle this season.
SIMMERING:
Dennis Erickson, Arizona State... It’s not just that the Sun Devils have missed the postseason two years running under Erickson, which is enough reason for concern. But the manner in which ASU has floundered the past two seasons is a particular bother to supporters in the Valley of the Sun, where the Sun Devils have not only been losing for two straight seasons, but have been decidedly dull in the process. And that’s something that not even Erickson’s staunchest critics could have imagined after he was hired three years ago. With his reputation as an offensive wizard taking a beating, Erickson wasted no time trying to alter the mix after 2009, jettisoning longtime confidante o.c. Rich Olson and enlisting the respected Noel Mazzone (most recently with the NFL Jets). Mazzone wasted no time implementing a fast-paced no0huddle attack being piloted by Michigan transfer Steven Threet, although after scoring a combined 93 points vs. Portland State and Northern Arizona, we’ll find out this week at Wisconsin just how far the Sun Devils have progressed. Sun Devils fans will not want to waste another excellent defensive effort like the one delivered by last season’s ASU stop unit. The demanding Tempe fan base, which has run out several coaches in the post-Frank Kush, will not hesitate to do the same to Erickson if things don’t improve this fall.
Steve Roberts, Arkansas State... We have to wonder if fiscal concerns (which are more of an issue at some schools more than others) helped Roberts survive what was a highly disappointing 2009. A close loss at Iowa turned out to be the high point of a dismal 4-8 campaign that seemed to promise so much more with QB Corey Leonard & RB Reggie Arnold returning for their senior seasons. Instead, the Red Wolves endured numerous internal issues and dismissals, Leonard’s benching and eventual season-ending knee injury, and 8 losses in 9 games before barely salvaging something from the campaign in narrow wins over Sun Belt bottom-feeders North Texas and Western Kentucky to finish the season. The only plus to the ‘09 meltdown was an early test run for now-soph QB Ryan Alpin, but 2010 has begun in depressing fashion with a lopsided loss at Auburn (somewhat expected) and a defeat at UL-Lafayette (which Roberts could have done without). Significant staff changes in the offseason were another indicator that Roberts could be making his last stand in Jonesboro.
Mark Richt, Georgia... Although it might be a bit presumptuous to put Richt in this list, there are some early indicators that 2010 could be a crossroads year in Athens. With Tim Tebow departing Florida, the Gators should be within reach of the SEC East pack, but last week’s 17-6 loss at South Carolina has moved the Gamecocks, and not Bulldogs, into the prime challenger position. Moroever, the suspension of big-time WR A.J. Green is another blow for Richt and his program, which endured plenty of heat after last season’s 8-5 mark after which Richt made staff changes, dismissing d.c. Willie Martinez and two other defensive assistants after the Bulldog stop unit sprang many leaks. . It’s also worth mentioning that Bulldog fans are still a bit chuffed about 2008, when many pegged Georgia as a possible national title contender, only to see the team rarely perform at that sort of level despite progressing to the Capital One Bowl, where Georgia beat Michigan State. Richt knows that the Georgia fan base does not want the Dawgs to descend into a series of minor bowl appearances such as last year’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, as predecessors Jim Donnan and Ray Goff were both forced to walk the plank for too many appearances in those sorts of minor bowls.
Bill Lynch, Indiana... The Hoosiers showed a bit of progress last season, but eventually were disappointed with their 4-8 mark that included a poor 1-7 Big Ten record. The campaign promised a bit more in September when IU looked rather menacing with its newly-installed "Pistol" offense, but the defense disappointed, and much of the stop unit graduated. Administrators are on record as saying they want to give Lynch every chance to succeed, and that the coaching turnover this decade has been a negative. Still, IU will likely need to show a bit more progress next fall for Lynch to survive beyond 2010.
Ricky Bustle, UL-Lafayette... We’re sure that Bustle took notice of Lafayette’s sister school in the UL system, UL-Monroe, dismissing HC Charlie Weatherbie after last year’s 6-6 campaign. Which is probably a warning to Bustle that treading water in the Sun Belt won’t be accepted forever. Bustle’s most-recent Ragin’ Cajun edition finished a respectable 6-6, which was a bit better than most anticipated after the graduation of stars such as QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy. But as Weatherbie’s dismissal at Monroe indicated, such middling performance could eventually prove a ticket out of town...even in the Sun Belt.
Ralph Friedgen, Maryland...Although Friedgen helped himself immensely with a 17-14 win over Navy in the opener, he doesn’t have much room to regress after last year’s 2-10 mark. There’s more to the situation at College Park, too, with o.c. James Franklin already named as Friedgen’s successor, although those plans can be blown apart quickly if the Terps stumble again this fall, especially with a new AD (Kevin Anderson) now in the fold.
Neil Callaway, UAB... True, 2009 was UAB’s high-water mark under Callaway, posting its first 3-game win streak during his tenure and also recording the best overall mark (5-7) since Callaway took over in 2007. But for coaches who have failed to post a winning record in three seasons, the fourth season is key, and Callaway is already in some trouble after losing his first two games out of the gate (including the opener at home vs. Florida Atlantic). Moreover, replacing do-everything QB Joe Webb looks to be a tall order, with replacement David Isabelle yet to distinguish himself. Slipping back to 4-8 or 3-9 could immediately put Callaway into some trouble.
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA... Although most Pac-10 observers believe Neuheisel will be given at least one more year to put the Bruins back on the map and take advantage of a potential recruiting opening with crosstown Southern Cal now on probation for two years, other longtime Bruin watchers are beginning to have their doubts about "Slick Rick" after UCLA fell to 11-16 on his watch following a humbling 35-0 home loss to Stanford last week. The Bruins do not seem to have made any progress under Neuheisel, even regressing slightly from predecessor Karl Dorrell’s regime, although Neuheisel’s supporters (who are reducing in numbers) correctly point out the bad injury luck that has plagued Neuheisel’s UCLA teams, especially at QB, where starter Kevin Prince has been limited by back and shoulder woes this September. A collapse to 3-9 or 2-10 is not out of the question, however, and some Bruin supporters worry that the team could unravel along an offensive/defensive faultline. Others worry that the situation could become toxic if the losing continues, and Neuheisel’s history indicating that he is perhaps not the best captain of a sinking ship. Watch this situation closely.