Late-Season Trends
By Bruce Marshall
If history has taught us anything about handicapping college football games, it’s that the later in the season we get, the more pronounced certain trends become. That’s often held especially true for teams in tailspins, many lacking the resources or resolve to turn things around. On the other hand, we’re also more apt to see long point-spread win streaks continuing through November, as teams that have caught an updraft at midseason often ride it into the bowl games.
Following are some select team-by-team technical notes as we move toward mid-November...
Air Force...Falcs recently broke 5-game point-spread slide and have now covered their last two, including sewing up first Commander-in-Chief Trophy since 2002 with last week’s win at Army. Falcs 13-6 vs. line as host since HC Troy Calhoun arrived in 2007. Akron...Zips on course for winless SU campaign under new HC Rob Ianello, who could be wondering why he took the job. Zips have failed to cover all four as host this season and have now dropped 6 straight vs. the number at their shiny, 2-year old InfoCision Stadium. Arizona...Cats have dropped 5 of last 6 vs. line TY but are still 16-6 vs. number in Tucson since ‘07. Arizona State...Although HC Dennis Erickson appears to be on the hot seat, his Sun Devils have still covered 6 of their last seven this season. Arkansas...HC Bobby Petrino has the Razorbacks rumbling, with covers in 6 of last 7 TY. Arkansas also 8-2 vs. line last 10 at Fayetteville, where Hogs host UTEP this week.
Arkansas State...A surprise point-spread package this season, Red Wolves have covered 6 of last 7. Ball State...We’ve only got one more chance this season (Nov. 20 vs. Northern Illinois) to go against Cards at home, who have dropped all five spread decisions at home this season, six straight since a year ago, and only 1-10 vs. the line at Muncie since last year for HC Stan Parrish. Boise State...Broncos actually faring better vs. number on road (4-0) this season than on blue carpet, where they’re 2-2 vs. points. Boise 23-8-1 vs. line last 32 on board as well. Boston College...After owning the nation’s longest spread losing streak (9) as of early October, the Eagles have covered their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. Bowling Green...Falcs have continued their road dog success this season, covering 4 of 6 getting points away in 2010, and now 13-4 vs. line in role since ‘07. Buffalo...Bulls are in a nosedive, losing and failing to cover last 4 and 7 of last 8 TY.
Cal...Pronounced home/road trends in 2010; Bears 4-0 SU and vs. line in Berkeley but 1-4 in both roles on road. Central Michigan...Recent glory days seem long ago to new HC Dan Enos, whose Chips just broke a 5-game spread losing streak last week vs. WMU. Colorado...After blowing a 45-17 4th Q lead at kansas last week, we wouldn’t be surprised if HC Dan Hawkins is given his walking papers before next week’s game at Boulder vs. Iowa State, The Buffs have now lost and failed to cover 5 in a row. Colorado State...A streaky point-spread entity since HC Steve Fairchild arrived in 2008, the Rams have once again caught a bit of an updraft, covering their last 2 and 6 of 7 after seeing the spread losing streak reach a nation’s worst 9 straight earlier this season. UConn...Note the home team has covered in each of the Huskies’ first eight games this season.
Eastern Michigan...Still batting .333 for 2nd-year HC Ron English, which would be good for Tigers’ 1B Miguel Cabrera but is decidedly subpar as a point-spread record for a MAC coach (English 3-6 this season and now 7-14 vs. the number since a year ago with the Eagles). Florida...Urban Meyer streaking both ways TY, now winning and covering his last two after dropping previous 3 vs. lne, which was preceded by three handy covers. Florida Atlantic...HC Howard Schnellenberger’s Owls have dropped 5 of their last 6 vs. the number. Florida State...The Noles have dropped their last three vs. the line after covering previous four. Fresno State...Still struggling vs. the number at home, where Pat Hill’s team hosts Nevada this weekend; Bulldogs only 4-18-1 vs. line as "Dog House" since late 2005. Georgia...Bulldogs have rallied lately for embattled HC Mark Richt, covering 4 of last 5 since early October. Hawaii...Warriors’ 6-game cover streak was snapped last week at Boise.
Idaho...Vandals skidding, failing to cover last four, and outscored 108-27 the last two weeks by Hawaii & Nevada. Illinois...A surprise package this season, Illini have covered 7 of 9 TY for HC Ron Zook. Kansas State...Note five straight covers for the Wildcats away from Manhattan under HC Bill Snyder. Kentucky...After covering all four SEC road games LY, Carts have failed to cover first three TY. UL-Monroe...Flying way under the radar are the Warhawks, offering pretty good value lately (4-1 vs. line last 5 in 2010). Marshall...Herd might finally be stirring for new HC Doc Holliday, winning and covering last two after dropping previous five vs. line. Memphis...The season went pear-shaped long ago for the Tigers, who have dropped their last five spread decisions under new HC Larry Porter. Tigers now 4-17 last 21 on board.
Miami-Florida...Troubles as chalk continue, dropping four of last five as chalk and now 10-21 last 31 as favorite. Miami-Ohio...RedHawks covering every other game this season prior to Wednesday night’s visit to Bowling Green. Michigan...Wolverines backed up down the stretch the past two seasons for HC Rich Rodriguez and seem to be doing it again, dropping last 5 vs. number. Ohio State...HC Jim Tressel keeps covering numbers, now 7-2 vs. line TY and an eye-opening 53-24 his last 77 on the board since mid 2004. Oklahoma State...Surging Cowboys have covered 6 of last 7 TY. Oregon State...Although Beavers were a narrow loser last Saturday at UCLA, OSU still 28-9 vs. number after fifth game of season since 2006.
Pitt...Panthers hot, now 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 TY. San Jose State...Still a money-burner for 1st-year HC Mike MacIntyre, Spartans 3-6 vs. line in ‘10, and now 4-20 vs. line since late 2008. SMU...Ponies have dropped 5 of last 6 spread decisions vs. HC June Jones, and have not improved much upon woeful recent chalk mark (now 2-14 since ‘07 after covering 2 of 7 TY as favorite). Southern Cal...Trojans now 7-18 their last 25 reg.-season games on board, and just 3-8 vs. number last 11 (1-4 TY) at once-feared Coliseum. Texas...Longhorns’ point-spread slippage began last year, with Horns now 2-10 vs. number last 12 on board, and 2-8 vs. points last 10 at Austin (0-4 TY). Troy...Trojans not the same team that dominated Sun Belt past few years, dropping 5 of last 6 vs., number.
Tulane...Maybe the Wave should play all of its games away from the cavernous Superdome, where it has now dropped 12 of its last 14 spread decisions. Tulsa...Hot, with six straight covers TY. UCF...Golden Knights hotter than Tulsa, as UCF is currently on nation’s longest spread win streak (7). HC George O’Leary now 17-4 vs. line since LY and 19-5 last 24 on board. UNLV...When does basketball begin? Rebels no covers last 4 for HC Bobby Hauck and now 1-10 vs. spread on road since LY (0-5 TY). Last four losses by 33 or more. Vanderbilt...With interim HC Robbie Caldwell likely to be asked to step aside, the Commodore season is unraveling at the seams. Vandy has now lost 4 straight vs. the number, outscored 168-35 over those games. Virginia Tech...Hokies now 26-11 vs. number as visitor since ‘04. Washington State...Cougs (1-9 SU) still not winning, but they have covered 5 of their last 6.