Looking for ATS Clues
By The Gold Sheet
At the midway point of the college season, it's often a good idea to wipe clean many of the team perceptions that might have been developed during the first few weeks of the campaign. That's because we've seen the story repeated countless times over the years; several teams that look good, or bad, in the first month of each season experience a change in fortunes along the way. Injury situations might begin to expose some depth concerns. On the other hand, some newer performers (often freshmen and redshirt freshmen) who were just getting acclimated to the college game begin to get more comfy with their surroundings as the year progresses. Coaching situations can also change; teams with mentors on the proverbial "hot seat" will often see their campaigns begin to unravel as the losses mount.
The bottom line is that the product on the field in September often has a far different look in October. Just as the November versions of the teams will often have a different look than the October editions. The question, then, is how to best identify those teams and their changing fortunes.
Emerging pointspread trends, both winning and losing, are going to be illuminated in the listings each week. We'd pay particular attention to teams at the lower-end of the "streak" scale; two or three-game pointspread streaks often grow into something truly meaningful. Teams that break recent spread and straight-up losing or winning streaks in their most-recent effort are identified each week. And though not all of those teams will run off extended winning or losing streaks, a few of them inevitably will; it's up to the handicappers to decide which ones to follow, and which ones not to follow.
Following are some teams we would be keeping our eyes on as the college season moves into late October.
On the way up? Arkansas...It's obvious that the Razorbacks are a different team than they were at the start of the season, when Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett was just getting used to things in Fayetteville. With a half season now under his belt, the rocket-armed Mallett has emerged as one of the best in the SEC, if not the country. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino's robust defensive front is drawing raves as well. Over the past three games, the Razorbacks have faced unbeaten teams each week, destroying two of them (Texas A&M & Auburn) and narrowly missing a major upset at top-ranked Florida. With four home games to finish the season, don't be surprised to see the Razorbacks close with a flourish and earn a quality bowl bid.
On the way up? Oregon State...We've seen HC Mike Riley rally his troops before. Indeed, over the past three-plus seasons, Riley's Beavers stand a noteworthy 24-5 straight up once the calendar turns to October. And once again this season, OSU seems to be putting the pieces together. A rebuilt defense that lacked experience but not athleticism took a few weeks to come together, but the underclass-dominated platoon now seems to be hitting stride. Meanwhile, Riley added a new wrinkle to the offense in the recent 38-28 win over Stanford, putting slithery sophomore RB Quizz Rodgers as the pilot of new "Wildcat" looks, and Rodgers responding with a 61-yard TD run out of the formation, the longest of his college career. A tough test awaits this week with revenge-minded Southern Cal on deck, but the recent script seems to be repeating itself in Corvallis.
On the way down? Texas A&M...Although A&M is playing a lot of underclassmen, there was simply no explanation for the Aggies' performance last Saturday at Manhattan, when they weren't prepared to play an angry Kansas State team that itself was off a numbing 66-14 loss at Texas Tech. By halftime the score had reached 38-0, then ballooned to 59-0 midway in the third quarter before Bill Snyder mercifully called off the dogs (or Cats, if you will). A&M's encouraging 3-0 break from the gate (accomplished vs. lesser opposition) is now long forgotten, and regional sources say that HC Mike Sherman is quickly positioning himself on the hot seat with the latest losing streak. Sherman's hiring and subsequent subpar beginning to his regime last season had more than a few Aggie-exes wondering if the school hadn't blown the hire. There have been stray rumors floating around the region that some A&M power brokers would like to pull the plug on the Sherman era and bring in ex-Auburn HC Tommy Tuberville to lead the Ags out of the woods. Stay tuned for further developments.
On the way down? Baylor...Ominous developments in Waco, where the Bears have run into some misfortune in recent weeks with the season-ending injury to QB Robert Griffin. Many Big XII sources believe it was Griffin's dynamism that made HC Art Briles' spread work so surprisingly well last season, and kept the Bears competitive vs. most foes. But with Griffin out, the "O" lacks the same pop, as former starter Blake Szymanski lacks the speed that Griffin used to full advantage. Szymanski was ineffective last week at Iowa State, tossing a pair of picks in a 24-10 loss. Without Griffin available until next season, the Bears could disappear down the stretch in the rugged Big XII South.
On the way up? Florida Atlantic...We've seen this before at FAU, where Howard Schnellenberger's Owls usually take their lumps in non-conference action (this year getting thumped at Nebraska & South Carolina) before regaining their bearings in the Sun Belt. And the same thing might be happening now, as FAU finally got in the win column after four defeats in last Saturday's wild 44-40 victory at North Texas. The Owl offense remains potent, with sr. QB Rusty Smith still around, and the attack has taken on a more-balanced look slamming sophomore RB Alfred Morris adding a legit infantry diversion while gaining over 104 YPG. FAU, which lost a pair of two-point decisions vs. UL-Monroe and Wyoming prior to its win at Denton, could yet get back into the bowl picture for a third straight season.
Others to watch: On the way up?...Boston College, Bowling Green, Clemson, Colorado, Duke, Fresno State, Kansas State, UL-Monroe, Mississippi State, Ohio, San Diego State, Texas Tech. On the way down? Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Rice, San Jose State, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt.