Looking for Value
By The Gold Sheet
By the time each college football season reaches the end of September, it's time to put the preview magazines away. Performance now takes the place of perception, and through the years we've tried to find ways to identify which teams are performing better, or performing worse, than those preseason expectations.
Longtime readers know that we have a couple of ongoing measuring devices that we use to try to identify such "value spots" in each week's card. Our most intriguing, and effective, calculation over the years is called our "AFS" (Away From Spread) number. Simply, we seek to identify just how much teams are overachieving, or underachieving, vs. the number, hopefully uncovering some future "soft spots" on the line with certain teams.
As its name suggests, "AFS" measures performance away from the pointspread. For example, if a 7-point favorite wins a game by 9 points, it will earn the pointspread win, but in reality the performance fairly matched the assessment of the oddsmakers, who were close in their evaluation of the team in its assignment. Such teams are usually performing as expected, and if the oddsmakers are on the mark, there probably won't be much pointspread value either way in that team's upcoming games.
Many squads, however, develop patterns rather suddenly, either overachieving or underachieving vs. the number. If a 7-point favorite wins a game by 28 points, it can be assumed that the oddsmakers and wagering public have been off in their assessment of that team, just as if the same 7-point favorite loses a game by 20 points. Although one sometimes-aberrational result can distort a team's "AFS" number, history has shown us that a trailing 2-game average might provide a better clue if the oddsmakers and general public are indeed clued into the affected team. So, each week, our Systems Spotlight feature highlights all of the 2-game plus and minus "AFS" numbers of 10 points or more each week.
As always, we recommend using some discretion when reviewing those numbers, which are just a raw compilation of the most-recent final margins against the pointspread. As mentioned, one spectacular or horrific performance can distort that number, so proceed with some caution. But there's no question that the running two-week "AFS" numbers will uncover some interesting up-to-date pointspread insights each week.
And this week is no exception, which is why we are encouraging the 2009 preview magazines be put away for the moment. That's because the most-recent 2-game "AFS" numbers present an almost inside-out picture from preseason prognosticators who forecast some of the recent best "AFS" performers as laggards, and some of the recent worst provide as national contenders. Indeed, four of the top teams on the plus side of the current "AFS" calculation (Indiana, Idaho, Washington State, and Mississippi State) were lightly regarded entering the campaign. Meanwhile, a slew of supposed BCS contenders, such as Illinois, Southern Cal, California, and Penn State, are near the top of the "minus" teams.
We've seen "AFS" numbers turn on a moment's notice in the past, which might figure as the oddsmakers and betting public make adjustments to a team's performance pattern. Nonetheless, we have always felt that consulting with the weekly "AFS" numbers is a worthwhile handicapping exercise. Following are the best and worst "AFS" performers for their last two pointspread decisions.
PLUS (+) TEAMS
Oregon 23.35
Indiana 18.50
Idaho 18.25
Washington State 18.00
Ohio State 16.25
Mississippi State 16.00
Nebraska 14.75
Houston 14.25
Iowa State 14.25
Boise State 14.00
Central Michigan 13.00
Iowa 13.00
Marshall 12.00
Virginia Tech 11.00
Hawaii 10.75
South Florida 10.25
MINUS (-) TEAMS
Illinois -25.25
Southern Cal 23.25
Cal 22.00
Tulane 21.50
Memphis 17.00
BYU 16.25
Akron 15.50
Maryland 15.00
UAB 14.75
Bowling Green 14.25
UL-Lafayette 13.25
Penn State 12.50
Arkansas 11.75
Kentucky 11.75
Buffalo 11.00
La tech 10.50
Nevada 10.50
New Mexico 10.00