Moving Lines
By Judd Hall
Week 1 hadn’t even finished before Las Vegas Sports Consultants put out odds for the next round of college football games. That’s the way it goes in the gambling world. While many of the lines that were set have been adopted by the sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore, a few of them differed a great deal.
One such line that came under scrutiny is also the one that opens this week’s festivities. LVSC installed South Carolina as a 7½-point “chalk” when they visit Nashville to face the Commodores.
When Monday rolled around, the Gamecocks were moved up to 10-point favorites over Vanderbilt. A couple of things could be responsible for why the line moved. First, Steve Spurrier opted to move Chris Smelley up the depth chart to start under center. That decision had to be expected with Tommy Beecher still ailing from a shoulder injury in his non-throwing arm. Besides, Spurrier had mentioned Smelley deserved the job after completing all five passes for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Another reason for the line being set where it was is because folks just don’t buy into Vandy. Despite crushing Miami (OH) 34-13, the Commodores are fairly wet behind the ears with just three returning offensive starters.
Friday’s ESPN affair has Ball State hosting Navy in a matchup of a MAC program ready to live up to expectations and a club hoping to keep its offense running despite losing its head coach. LVSC threw the Cardinals out to the books as 3½-point home favorites, but quickly moved it to 6 ½ the following day. Most Vegas sportsbooks opened BSU as an eight-point fave, but has since slid them down to 7½.
West Virginia makes the trip to Greenville, North Carolina to take on a Pirates’ side coming off of upsetting Virginia Tech last weekend. The good folks at LVSC installed the Mountaineers as 10½-point road favorites. Most of the sportsbooks have since moved that line down to eight. Look for that line to move a little more towards East Carolina before Saturday’s kickoff.
A tilt that has some strange movement to me is Bowling Green’s home date with the Golden Gophers. The Falcons came away from Pittsburgh last weekend with an impressive 27-17 win as 14½-point ‘dogs. LVSC placed the Falcs as seven-point favorites, but have since slid it down to six. The Wynn actually opened this game with Bowling Green as a 4½-point home “chalk.” They now have them at 5½.
Something tells me that the books are expecting a beating in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions were listed as 11½-point home favorites by LVSC against an Oregon State squad that blew it on the road against Stanford last week. The majority of sportsbooks have pushed Penn State up to 16½ seeing that the Beavers will be making a cross country trip for their second straight road match.
ESPN’s Saturday prime time contest has also seen some movement. The Gators were set as 18½-point home favorites over Miami (FL). Now the sportsbooks have modified the line for Florida at 21½, which still seems low when you consider UF’s speed against a team that can’t seem to get its offense together like the Hurricanes (last week’s shellacking of Charleston Southern proves nothing).
VegasInsider.com
Good article.
Even with the internet I still don't think a lot of people know what goes into setting lines and balancing the point spread.