Outback Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers
The Northwestern Wildcats and the Auburn Tigers will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Raymond James Stadium in the Outback Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 8½-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game's total is sitting at 55.
Northwestern upset Wisconsin 33-31 at Ryan Field in Week 12.
Northwestern covered as a 7-point home underdog in that contest, while the final score played OVER the 48.5-point total.
Auburn was defeated 26-21 in Week 13 by Alabama as a 12.5-point underdog. That game's 47 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 47.
Darvin Adams had four catches for 138 yards and a TD in that loss.
Team records:
Northwestern: 8-4 SU, 5-6 ATS
Auburn: 7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS
Northwestern most recently:
When playing in January are 0-2
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Auburn most recently:
When playing in January are 4-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Auburn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Gator Bowl: Florida State Seminoles vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
The Florida State Seminoles and the West Virginia Mountaineers will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Municipal Stadium in the Gator Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Mountaineers listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Seminoles, while the game's total is sitting at 59½.
Florida State couldn't spoil Tim Tebow's final game in Gainesville, losing 37-10 to Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Week 13.
Florida covered as a 25.5-point home favorite in that contest, while the final score played UNDER the 56-point total.
Noel Devine rushed for one touchdown and West Virginia held on to beat Rutgers 24-21 in Week 14.
The Mountaineers covered the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played just UNDER the posted total of 43.5.
Team records:
Florida State: 6-6 SU, 3-8 ATS
West Virginia: 9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS
Florida State most recently:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
West Virginia most recently:
When playing in January are 3-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida State's last 8 games
Florida State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Capital One Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
The LSU Tigers and the Penn State Nittany Lions will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at the Florida Citrus Bowl in the Capital One Bowl.
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
Josh Jasper booted a 36-yard field goal in overtime in Week 13, lifting LSU to a 33-30 victory over Arkansas.
LSU failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, but the 63 points made it OVER the posted total of 53.5.
Penn State knocked off conference foe Michigan State 42-14 at Spartan Stadium in Week 12.
PSU covered as a 3-point road favorite, while the final score played OVER the 50-point total.
Team records:
LSU: 9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Penn State: 10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS
LSU most recently:
When playing in January are 4-2
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 10-0
Penn State most recently:
When playing in January are 5-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
LSU is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
LSU is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Penn State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Rose Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks
The fans at Rose Bowl will be treated to a game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks when they take their seats for the Rose Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Ducks listed as 4-point favorites versus the Buckeyes, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.
Ohio State put the heat on freshman QB Tate Forcier, picking off four of his passes and forcing a fumble in the end zone in a 21-10 win over Michigan in Week 12.
Ohio State covered as a 10-point road favorite in that game, while the final score played UNDER the 47.5-point total.
Oregon took control in the second half and outlasted Oregon State 37-33 in Week 14. Oregon failed to cover the 9.5-point spread, but the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 63.
LaMichael James ran for 166 yards off 25 carries with three touchdowns in that win.
Team records:
Ohio State: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Oregon: 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS
Ohio State most recently:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When an underdog on the road are 4-6
Oregon most recently:
When playing in January are 1-1
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When favored at home are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Oregon is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators
The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at the Louisiana Superdome in the Sugar Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Gators listed as 12½-point favorites versus the Bearcats, while the game's total is sitting at 57.
Tony Pike's touchdown pass to Armon Binns with less than a minute remaining helped Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 45-44 in Week 14.
The Bearcats covered the 1.5-point spread in that game, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 56.
Florida was shocked by Alabama, losing 32-13 in the SEC championship game at the Georgia Dome in Week 14.
Alabama covered as a 5.5-point underdog in that contest, while the final score played OVER the 41-point total.
Team records:
Cincinnati: 12-0 SU, 6-5 ATS
Florida: 12-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in January are 1-1
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When an underdog on the road are 5-5
Florida most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When favored at home are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 22-1 SU in its last 23 games
Florida is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
NORTHWESTERN (8 - 4) vs. AUBURN (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FLORIDA ST (6 - 6) vs. W VIRGINIA (9 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LSU (9 - 3) vs. PENN ST (10 - 2)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OHIO ST (10 - 2) vs. OREGON (10 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 125-93 ATS (+22.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 125-93 ATS (+22.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CINCINNATI (12 - 0) vs. FLORIDA (12 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NORTHWESTERN vs. AUBURN
Northwestern is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Auburn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
FLORIDA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
West Virginia is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
LSU vs. PENN STATE
LSU is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
LSU is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
OHIO STATE vs. OREGON
Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
CINCINNATI vs. FLORIDA
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Florida is 22-1 SU in its last 23 games
Northwestern vs. Auburn
Northwestern
32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
9-0 Under Away after 1st month of season
Auburn
0-7 ATS Away off conference losses
1-5 ATS off home loss
Florida State vs. West Virginia
Florida State
29-11 ATS off BB ATS losses
10-2 Over as an underdog
West Virginia
7-18 ATS vs. ACC
20-6 Over playing with 2 weeks of rest
LSU vs. Penn State
LSU
13-4 ATS off win by 3pts or less
34-18 ATS Away off ATS loss
Penn State
8-2 Under this season
6-0 Under after allowing 14 points or less
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Ohio State
5-1 ATS off cover as DD favorite
6-1 Under off SU win
Oregon
6-0 ATS playing with 2 weeks of rest
8-1 Over as a favorite
Cincinnati vs. Florida
Cincinnati
42-19 Under on turf
27-13 Under vs. non-conference
Florida
8-2 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7.5 to 14 points
5-1 ATS playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Northwestern: Big 10 bowlers are 6-1 ATS vs SEC opp off BB losses... bowlers off BB SU and ATS underdog wins are 7-11 ATS
Auburn: 4-1 SU and ATS bowler after Alabama...1-11 bowl favorite or dog of 7 < points vs opp off win
Florida State
Bowden: 10-1 SU and ATS off loss vs Gators... 111th ranked defense
West Virginia
Stewart: 13-0 SU but only 3-8 ATS vs sub .700 opp... Big East bowlers are 1-8 ATS versus an opponent off a loss
LSU
SEC bowl dogs are 9-1 ATS versus an opponent off a win... Bengals 0-4 In The Stats last four games
Penn State
6-2 SU and ATS vs SEC opp S/1990... Capital One favorites are 1-4 SU and ATS L5Y
Ohio State
25-7 SU L32G vs fellow bowlers... Big 10 bowlers are 7-14 SU and 4-17 ATS vs Pac 10 opp
Oregon
5-1 ATS bowler off a win... 1st year coaches are 4-12 ATS as bowlers vs opp won 10 or more games LY
Cincinnati
Undefeated bowl dogs of 7 > points are 10-2 ATS... 1-6 ATS bowler this decade
Florida
Meyer: 9-1 ATS when opponent win percentage is more than his team... SEC bowlers are 0-5 SU and ATS vs Big East opp L10Y
New Year's Day Bowl Bonanza
By Doug Upstone
To start football for 2010, the compelling game of the three is probably the least interesting in football terms. Today marks the end of the line for Bobby Bowden's historic coaching career. He was as gracious in defeat as he was in victory and the game of college football takes a hit for losing such a great man. The best early game is LSU and Penn State in the Holiday Bowl with two schools synonymous with winning. The Big Ten Conference opened strong in the bowl season with Wisconsin victory; can Northwestern build on the momentum with their first postseason triumph in 62 years?
Outback Bowl Wagering Info
Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since 1948, to break that trend it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the New Year's Day conflicts. The Wildcats haven't played on Jan. 1 since 1997and are underdogs to Auburn (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) team, which won just two of its last seven games in 2009. Interestingly, the Outback underdog has covered the number the last five times the pointspread exceeded four points. Auburn offers a new approach as offensive team these days; however is 5-9 ATS as bowl chalk. The Tigers were 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. other bowlers. Northwestern (5-6 ATS) won last three games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.
Don't right off Northwestern in this New Year's opener. QB Mike Kafka is an all-purpose performer and the Wildcats are well-suited for this role since they are 10-3 ATS as underdogs recently, with eight outright upsets. While Auburn's offense saw dramatic improvement this season, the defense went backwards, allowing a SEC-high 26.9 points per game. Though the players change, coach Gene Chizik should remind his team, Northwestern has given 43.8 points a bowl in last six tries. The Tigers will look to establish runners Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb. If they do, this opens up passing lanes for Chris Todd who threw 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Auburn defense has to turnover the Wildcats since they are 2-9 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons. BetUS.com has Northwestern catching eight points with total of 54 and the Wildcats are 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by 3.2 point per game.
Capitol One Bowl Wagering Info
Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of the losses happened in Orlando. The Nittany Lions yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3 and 5-6-1 ATS, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in L5 matchups.
Both of these teams are perfectly placed in Orlando, since neither could beat the superior teams in their conference and their best wins are ordinary to say the least. Penn State emerges as winner if they stop a pedestrian LSU offensive line. It appears they should, however the only comparable opponents Penn State faced were Iowa and Oho State and they shoved the ball down the Nittany Lions throat for a combined 391 rushing yards. Penn State is a mere 6-17 ATS away from Mt. Nittany vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game. LSU has lacked any sort of offensive consistency all year and doesn't figure to find it against a solid Penn State defense. What the Tigers have to do is stop Lions offense and win field position battle and stick with the running game. Jordan Jefferson can hit six passes in a row and miss next six, get him in comfortable locations on the field for success. LSU is 12-1 ATS away from home after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.
Gator Bowl Wagering Info
This will be Bobby Bowden's last game on the sidelines for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. With Florida State sporting a 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, they shouldn't be playing New Year's Day, but TV ratings matter. Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. West Virginia (5-6 ATS) is 9-3 and has won four straight bowl games, with last loss coming to same opponent in this very game in 2005. The ACC is 7-2 ATS the previous nine encounters.
Not sure if there are exceptional reasons to tune in and place money on this Gator Bowl. Florida State's flaws were spotted early, allowing almost 400 passing yards to Miami and having to come from behind in the fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State. Finishing second in too many recruiting battles, shows the Seminoles record is well-deserved. On offense, E.J. Manuel has stepped in for injured Christian Ponder, with mixed results. Like most freshmen quarterbacks, he was poised when he had time, but got in a hurry when pressured and was less selective in the red zone. The Noles are 29-11 ATS after two or more consecutive spread. Betting on old smiley face from West Virginia can be hazardous to one's health and wagering account. West Virginia is 2.5-point favorite with total of 60 and coach Bill Stewart is 6-13 ATS as the favorite wearing the lead head set. The Mountaineers win this game with ease if QB Jarrett Brown returns to his pre-concussion form from October. West Virginia has too many speedy players to account for and if Brown is close to 100 percent clarity with this much time off, no reason they don't knock off Florida State, except for the Stewart factor.
Rose Bowl Wagering Info
With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it's hard to believe that Ohio State (9-3 ATS) is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since '95. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon (7-5 ATS) prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. The Ducks are the favorite and they are 1-6 ATS as bowlers in that role. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS as bowl dogs since 2002. The Pac-10 is 20-11 ATS in last 31 Grand Daddy games. The Big Ten has lost last six trips to Pasadena.
The Big Ten prides itself in the football sense on sending a team to the Rose Bowl on par with BCS championship game; it's what Midwesterner's know after all these years. This is a VERY important encounter for the conference and the Buckeyes. They've lost three straight BCS games to superior teams and though Oregon is the favorite, the Ducks are not in the class of the last trio of squads Ohio State has played in January.
Ohio State's calling card is defense and they will have to find ways to shutdown the multi-faceted attack of the Ducks. Terrelle Pryor learned at the altar of Brett Favre to announce injury and say it is no big deal, entering in the Rose Bowl. Pryor has a torn PCL, which should limit him to pocket passer.
The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two years and will lean on their offensive line to maintain the 199 yard average on the ground to combat the Ducks defense. That means the offensive line has to shove around Oregon and RB's Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit creases with authority. The Ohio State defense has forced two or more turnovers in 10 of 12 games this season and will need to keep that pace and score touchdowns if they create Oregon miscues. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS off a SU win, like they enjoyed over Michigan.
Oregon on paper is the better team and wins this game surprisingly easy if they mount an early 10 or 14-point lead. Ohio State is 106th passing in the country and unless they are fortunate enough to hit a few deep balls, the Ducks should be able to play well with the lead. Coach Chip Kelly's diversified attack has the opportunity to keep Ohio State players and coaches guessing all day pass or run and LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli could have a wonderful opening of 2010 for team that is 6-0 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last three seasons.
Betonline.com has Oregon as 4.5-point favorites with total of 50.5. Common opponents give the edge to the Ducks having beaten USC and Purdue, while Ohio State lost to both. System players should be aware New Year's Day underdogs of three or more that played on the first day of new year or in BCS game as an underdog of 4.5 or more a season ago are 9-2 ATS.
Sugar Bowl Wagering Info
Florida (12-0, 6-6 ATS) had bigger plans, but had to settle for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati (12-0, 7-5 ATS). With two national titles in three years, Florida's motivation is questioned after the SEC title game loss. It is the last collegiate game for Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Bearcats mental state is also unknown, having a coaching change. Hopefully the time off helped the Cincy defense recover, as they surrendered 36.5 points per game in its last four contests. It's an entertaining matchup of Cincinnati's prolific offense against Gators domineering defense. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under sabbatical in the making Urban Meyer.
Let's be honest, their arguably has not been a more meaningless BCS game since the system was put into place. The outcome of this game has zero bearing on what happens this year or next year as Cincinnati has Butch Jones following Brian Kelly again for his next job (Central Michigan was the other) and though the philosophies may be similar, they are different.
The Meyer saga is far different. This is a guy so conflicted internally, that one crisp practice made him feel better. His news conference needed another chair and microphone, as Meyer is walking around with two personalities and he doesn't know which one to trust. Make no mistake, the recruits Florida has lined up for will be receiving calls from other programs asking them to reconsider since who will really be the coach at Florida not only next year, but in the future for a four year commitment.
As far as the game it, the Bearcats felt they were getting disrespected before the whole Meyer revelation came to fruition, most consider this contest a mortal lock for Gators, wanting to send their coach out to his leave of absence feeling much better. Granted, Cincinnati plays in the Big East compared to Florida in the SEC, but the Bearcats see they have 33 wins since 2007 and the Gators 34.
Tony Pike is a cool senior who is calm in the face of adversity (remember his performance against Pittsburgh) and the Cincinnati coaches will be intent on moving Mardy Gilyard around to allow him to make big plays. The Cinny defense wore down in the second half the season and should be refreshed with the time off and has to concentrate on taking away the dive play from Florida offense, as that usually sets the tempo. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS when playing against team with a 75 percent or higher win percentage over the last three seasons.
The Florida seniors and juniors expected to leave are going to be SO JACKED to send their coach into sabbatical they might not need helmets. Defensively, make Pike throw the pigskin quickly, before plays develop to their entirety. This leaves narrower windows for completions and makes Pike less confident. With as focused as Tim Tebow figures to be, the Florida offense might be like an executioner, coldly gaining first down after first down before busting a long play for six. The Gators are 9-1 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season under Meyer, winning by average 17.3 PPG.
Sportbet.com has the Gators ready to chomp as 12.5-point favorites, with total of 57.
In life it's always interesting to wonder - what if? If Texas loses to Nebraska and Florida beats Alabama, they likely are playing for national championship and would any what has happened with the coaches occurred if they were about to face one another.
Here's a great reason to watch the Sugar Bowl, it might be the end of an era in Gator football. Even if Meyer does return, the casualties will be too heavy to overcome next season. Can he mentally and physically continue to push himself so hard and if he delegates more, will he be satisfied with the results. Stay tuned.
New Year's Early Action
By Chris David
New Year’s Day was once considered the biggest day in college football, but that’s no longer the case. None of the bowls on Jan. 1 will feature national title implications, rather just a collection of decent non-conference games. The major bowls played on the first day of the year will be the Rose Bowl between Oregon and Ohio State, plus the Sugar Bowl featuring Florida and Cincinnati. Prior to this pair, fans and more importantly gamblers have the opportunity to build their bankrolls with a trio of early contests. Let’s take a quick look at these games and start the New Year on the right foot!
Northwestern (8-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Auburn (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS)
The first college football game of 2010 season features a SEC-Big 10 matchup between Northwestern and Auburn. The Tigers are the more recognized program of the two but bettors should be weary of an underrated Wildcats team coached by Pat Fitzgerald. Most sportsbooks opened Auburn as a seven-point favorite but the line has jumped as high as nine in some spots.
Nevada resident and VegasInsider.com handicapper James Manos isn’t buying into the move, rather believing the underdog has value in this spot. He said, “Northwestern enters this bowl contest playing perhaps the best football of any non Top 25 team. The Wildcats finished the season with straight up wins at Iowa, at Illinois, and at home over Wisconsin all while compiling a stellar 5-2 against the spread record as underdogs. Auburn finished on a different note with disappointing late season losses at Georgia and at home against Alabama. The Alabama loss is especially deflating as it's a game the Tigers deserved to win and could have been the "statement" win the program needed to solidify their 2009 season.”
“Northwestern has been a fabulous underdog of late and are now 10-3 against the number recently when catching points. Also, they've been a solid historical play in this situation going an amazing 32-14 ATS as dogs in this point range (+3.5 to +10). Auburn has the better overall talent and will enjoy the usual SEC speed advantage but the Wildcats are very well coached and will field the better defense. I made the line on this game 6.5 but either way with this line over a TD the advantage is with the ‘dog. NW played, and faired better, vs. a tougher overall schedule and they will be the more motivated squad in this matchup. Once again, this will be a contest that the scrappy Wildcats will have every opportunity to win outright.”
Gamblers looking to back NW on the money-line can do so at a tempting price of plus-250 (Bet $100 to win $250) at most outfits.
No serious trends for this particular bowl standout, with the SEC and Big Ten alternating wins and losses over the past four years. The early start has stopped the scoreboard from getting lit up lately, with the ‘under’ cashing in the last three. Auburn will be making its third trip to the Outback Bowl. It went 1-1 in its previous visits and both games were decided by double digits. Northwestern will be playing in its first Outback Bowl.
Auburn didn’t go bowling last year but it does own a 5-1 record in its previous six postseason games, the lone loss coming against another Big Ten school (Wisconsin, 24-10) in the 2006 Capital One Bowl
Northwestern owns a 1-6 all-time record in bowls but you can see the team has been coming close to earning its second victory. Last year, they came up short in a 30-23 loss to Missouri but the ‘Cats did cover as 14-point underdogs.
Florida State (6-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. West Virginia (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS)
Will Florida State send legendary coach Bobby Bowden out a winner on New Year’s Day? After a tough year that saw the school post its worst regular season record since 1981, some folks are probably happy to see him go. Most believe that the Seminoles will have the emotional factor in this matchup, but the oddsmakers disagree and have made West Virginia made a three-point favorite in Jacksonville, which is just a quick 3-hour trip from Tallahassee.
The biggest issue this year for the Seminoles was their defense (443 YPG), which was ranked dead-last in the ACC and 110th nationally in total yards. FSU gave up 26 points or more in 10 of its 12 games. Fortunately for FSU, they won’t be facing a juggernaut in West Virginia. The Mountaineers started the season by scoring 30-plus points in their first five games but they only managed to put up 24 or less in seven of their remaining eight. WVU will still boast the best player on the field or perhaps the most explosive in running back Noel Devine (1,297 yards, 12 TDs). Most would expect Bowden and his troops to load up the line and make QB Jarrett Brown (2,129 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs) beat them since he’s struggled down the stretch.
Devine and Brown might not have to do much, since FSU’s offense has been hurt with the loss of QB Christian Ponder (shoulder) for the season. His backup E.J. Manuel has completed 63 percent of his passes while playing the last three games but he’s tossed six interceptions and has been sacked five times. Manuel will be facing a WVU defense that disguises blitz packages with a 3-3-5 scheme and most would figure the youngster will get confused.
Florida State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) and West Virginia (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) have both struggled on the road this year. The two schools have one common opponent in South Florida. The Seminoles lost to the Bulls (7-17) at home and the Mountaineers came up short against USF (19-30) in Tampa Bay.
The total on this game has been listed at 60, which is the highest number WVU will see all year and the second-highest ‘over/under’ that’s been listed for FSU. The Mountaineers have watched the ‘over’ go 6-5 but they’ve only seen one game eclipse this number. On the other hand, FSU has been in shootouts all season, which has produced an 8-3 ‘over’ record.
Florida State has played in six Gator Bowls and the school has posted a perfect 5-0-1 record, with the lone tie coming in 1967 against Penn State (17-17). Meanwhile, West Virginia has visited the Gator Bowl six times and the school has produced a dismal 1-5 mark and two of the losses came against the Seminoles, the last meeting coming in 2005.
LSU (9-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Penn State (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS)
The other SEC-Big 10 matchup on New Year’s Day features LSU and Penn State clashing in the Capital One Bowl from Orlando. The Tigers and Nittany Lions have one thing in common, they both failed to step up when it mattered most. LSU lost to Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss while Penn State suffered setbacks to Iowa and Ohio State. Four of those schools will be playing in BCS bowl games and the Rebels are traveling to the Cotton Bowl.
Despite losing to the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes, Penn State did dominate in its 10 victories, winning all of them by double digits. Even more importantly, the Lions went 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year behind an offense that averaged 36.5 PPG. Meanwhile, LSU went 3-2 on the road and all three of their victories were close calls, each decided by eight points or less.
It’s fair to say that Penn State owns the better defensive and offensive units, at least on paper. Quarterback Daryll Clark (23 TDs) led an offense that averaged 412 YPG and 29.7 PPG and the unit will face an LSU defense that started solid but gave up an average of 393 YPG and 23.8 PPG in its final four games.
Even if LSU is able to contain PSU’s offense with its speed, some might wonder how the Tigers will score in this matchup. LSU’s offense averaged 309 YPG, which was ranked 11th in the SEC and 108th nationally. QB Jordan Jefferson (16 TDs) has shown some glimpses but he could miss running back Charles Scott. The Lions’ defense (11.8 PPG, 277 YPG) is ranked fourth nationally in scoring and seventh in total yards.
Penn State owns a 23-11-1 record in bowl games under Joe Paterno, which includes a 4-2 run in their last six postseason trips. Before you hop on the JoePa Express, gamblers should turn their attention to Tigers’ head coach Les Miles, who has won and covered four straight bowl games since he arrived at LSU. All of the victories have come by double digits and the defense has limited teams to 11 PPG during this span.
Even though most pundits will agree that the SEC is the better overall conference, the Big 10 has taken four of the last five matchups in the Capital One Bowl. The lone win came last year, when Georgia doubled-up Michigan State, 24-12. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 over this span. Penn State will be making its fifth appearance in this bowl and is just 1-3 in its previous four visits. LSU has gone 1-1 in this bowl.
Oddsmakers have listed Penn State as a short favorite (-2.5), while the total is hovering between 43 and 44 points. Gamblers should make a note that Miami and Wisconsin played at the Citrus Bowl on Tuesday in the Champs Sports Bowl and the surface was a mess, with pieces of sod getting kicked up routinely. Playing in the afternoon will help, but how much?
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Rose Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall
The BCS national championship game might be the game that the general public wants to see. Gamblers, however, are more intrigued with what is going on in Pasadena a week before that tilt as Ohio State (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) meet up with the Ducks for the 96th Rose Bowl Game at 4:30 p.m. EST on ABC.
To say that bettors are expecting some offensive fireworks would be an understatement. Most betting shops have installed Oregon (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 50 ½. Buckeye backers can taken them to get the outright victory for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
According to Sportsbook.com, they are seeing 73 percent of the money coming in on the ‘over.’
It’s tough to argue with the logic of the betting pubic in believing the combined score will soar above the closing number. The Ducks have the seventh best scoring offense in the country, averaging 37.7 points per game. Sportsbooks had kept the totals well within the 50s for most of the year. After seeing the ‘over’ hit in three straight games from Oct. 24 to No. 7, oddsmakers placed Oregon’s final two matchups with numbers in the 60s. And they cleared those marks easily against Arizona and Oregon State.
Oregon is able to play in these defense-optional games thanks to an attack that lives off of misdirection, spread option and play action plays. Those setups give the Ducks a chance at getting their athletes in one-on-one showdowns on the field. The biggest winners in these plays are quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and running back LaMichael James.
Masoli can throw the ball with the best of them (58.9 completion percentage, 2,066 yards, 15 touchdowns), but is dangerous when he keeps the ball. The Ducks’ signal caller turns into a linebacker when in the open field, picking up 659 yards and 12 scores. All James has done is amass 1,476 rushing yards for 14 touchdowns. And that doesn’t even count LeGarrette Blount, who will no doubt get a healthy dose of carries in his final game as a collegian.
The Ducks don’t keep all of the speed on the offense; their defense has plenty of jump to spare. That athleticism should come in handy when they have to stop Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor from moving the chains with his feet. While that might seem like a tall order, remember that this unit is giving up only 126.7 rushing YPG. And the Quack Attack did hold a pretty good Oregon State ground game to 83 yards in the season finale.
Ohio State is coming into this tilt with a lot to prove to themselves and the nation. The Buckeyes have dropped three straight BCS bowls, but they at least covered last year against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. There is reason to be optimistic for fans of the Scarlet and Gray as they closed out the season with five straight win, covering in three of them, after falling to the Boilermakers on the road on Oct. 17.
The Bucks employ a similar run-first attitude for their offensive success, gaining 198.9 YPG on the ground this season. They do go about it in a bit more conventional way with Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron. That duo has picked up 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns. But Jim Tressel has figured out how to let Pryor run the ball more out of the zone-read option, which has funneled more of the attack through him. The sophomore QB has picked up 707 yards and seven scores.
Pryor’s throwing abilities have come into question a lot during the year. He’s only completed 56 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 picks. Pryor has improved over his last five starts with his pass selections, throwing just two interceptions with six scores. However, a 43.4 completion percentage is a big issue.
Ohio State does like to share the wealth when throwing the ball, with six players having at least 13 catches. But the Buckeyes’ main targets are DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher. Posey (52 catches, 727 yards, 7 touchdowns) has ascended to being the deep threat target with his good hands and blazing speed. Sanzenbacher has only caught around two passes per game this season, but he’s makes those plays count with an average of 18.7 yards per catch.
While the offense is nice to have, Ohio State wins games with defense. The Buckeyes are equally dominant against the run (83.4 YPG, 5th nationally) and the pass (179.1 YPG, 17th nationally). And you can’t forget to mention that they have the fifth best scoring defense, giving up 12.2 PPG this season.
The Bucks’ have been extremely opportunistic on taking the ball away, picking of 23 passes to fall only behind Texas nationally in that category.
OSU also has one of the best defensive lineman in the nation in Cameron Heyward. “Ironhead’s” son has helped the Bucks by picking up 42 total tackles, 10 for a loss that pushed the opposition back 44 yards. He also picked up the first touchdown of his collegiate career on a fumble recovery against Michigan.
Someone the Bucks will miss on Friday afternoon is kick returner Ray Small, who was suspended for violating team rules. The senior from Cleveland is averaging 27.0 yards per kickoff return this season, while getting 8.3 YPR on punts. Sanzenbacher or fellow wide out Lamaar Thomas will be tasked with handling kick returns on New Year’s Day.
It’s been a while since these teams last when to blows against one another. Ohio State won that game in 1987 in Columbus, 24-14. But the Ducks did cover as 22-point road pups in that matchup.
The Buckeyes aren’t really used to being underdogs as it’s happened just 31 times since 1997. They’ve gone 12-19 SU, while posting a 16-14-1 ATS mark in those situations. Tressel’s crew has covered the number in the last three games as pups.
Oregon has done well when favored over the last two seasons, as evidenced by a 24-6 SU record. Bettors have enjoyed success with them as well as the Ducks have gone 18-12 ATS.
One thing the Ducks have done a so-so job in is face the Big Ten. They are 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in 11 meetings against the beasts of the Midwest. It’s important to note that Oregon is 5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against this conference.
Ohio State has fared quite well against the Pac-10 with a 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS.
vegasinsider.com
Sugar Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
Where do we start? Gamblers have all sorts of drama to sort through in breaking down this year’s Nokia Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans.
Earlier this month, Cincinnati and Florida had unbeaten records and two of the nation’s premier coaches stalking the sidelines. A few weeks later, Brian Kelly is the head coach at Notre Dame, while Urban Meyer is about to take a leave of absence following this game.
Steve Adazzio has been named UF’s interim head coach. Cincy’s interim coach is Jeff Quinn, who was just named the new head coach at Buffalo. There’s also Butch Jones, who is Cincy’s new head coach who was hired just days after Kelly bolted for South Bend. Jones has decided to retain only one assistant currently on the Bearcats’ staff.
Also, UF defensive coordinator Charlie Strong has been named the new head coach at Louisville. But Strong remains with the Gators and will coach in the Sugar Bowl. Billy Gonzalez, UF’s wide receivers coach and recruiting coordinator, has left the team for a new job on Les Miles’ staff at LSU.
Got all that? Ok, now to the game.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (12-1 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) as a 10 ½-point favorite with a total of 62. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Gators favored by 13 with the total reduced into the 57-58 range. Bettors can back the Bearcats to win outright for a plus-375 return (risk $100 to win $375).
When VegasInsider.com beat every other media outlet in America by more than an hour in breaking last Saturday’s shocking story of Urban Meyer’s resignation, UF was just an 11-point favorite. Over that next 24 hours, which obviously included the Urbanator’s change of heart, the betting public pounced on Florida, prompting oddsmakers to move the number up to 13.
Gamblers clearly think that Meyer’s flip-flop will have the Gators more focused and determined. That was certainly a concern beforehand, as we saw Alabama pull a no-show after losing to UF in last year’s SEC Championship Game before getting blasted by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.
Then again, might all this chaos surrounding the UF program be a huge distraction? And if you’re thinking along those lines, do you have the same thoughts about Cincy’s transition of coaches? Does that make the off-the-field drama a wash?
Who the hell knows?
And who the hell would’ve ever dreamed that anything would overshadow the fact that one of the greatest players in college football history is about to play in his last career game?
Tim Tebow has been the heart and soul of UF’s program for the last four years, producing dazzling numbers, a Heisman Trophy and a pair of national titles.
But UF’s repeat hopes were dashed at the Georgia Dome earlier this month when Alabama avenged a loss at the same venue the previous season. Behind three rushing touchdowns by this year’s Heisman winner, Mark Ingram, the Crimson Tide spanked the Gators 32-13 as a five-point underdog.
The Gators were playing without a pair of defensive starters in LB A.J. Jones and DE Carlos Dunlap. Jones remains “out” with a knee injury, but Dunlap has been reinstated and will start against Cincy. Dunlap was suspended for the SEC title game after being arrested for DUI four days before facing ‘Bama.
Before the Tide hung 32 on UF, it had not given up more than 20 points (Arkansas) all year long. Will this unit respond by shutting down the Bearcats high-octane offense?
Cincinnati (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) capped an unbeaten regular season by rallying in the final minute to capture a 45-44 win at Pittsburgh. However, the Panthers cashed tickets as 1 ½-point home underdogs.
Pitt took a 44-38 lead with 1:30 left in the fourth quarter, but that proved to be too much time for Tony Pike and Co. Pike shook off three interceptions to throw his third touchdown pass to Armon Binns with 33 seconds remaining.
Pike, who had a 26/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season, has one of the country’s best wide receivers in Mardy Gilyard, who comes to the Crescent City with a chip on his shoulder. For starters, he’s bitter at Kelly for leaving before the bowl game and has been outspoken in recent weeks about how the Bearcats are undefeated because of their players, not Kelly.
Gilyard also wants to put on a show for the NFL scouts, who will be closely monitoring his matchup with UF junior CB Joe Haden, who is expected to be an early first-round pick when he turns pro after this game. Gilyard has a team-high 80 receptions for 1,150 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Binns had 56 catches for 859 yards and 10 TDs.
Although Cincy didn’t face SEC-type competition in the Big East, it did play a formidable non-conference slate. In fact, the Bearcats went across the country and beat a Pac-10 squad by double digits. They won a 28-18 decision at Oregon St. as one-point road favorites. Cincy also beat up on Illinois (49-36) from out of the Big Ten and collected a 28-20 home win over Fresno St.
Florida was a double-digit favorite in every game it played except against ‘Bama, going 6-5 versus the number. The Bearcats were underdogs just once in 2009. They thrived in that role, thumping Rutgers 47-15 as 4½-point ‘dogs in the season opener.
Totals were a wash for Cincy, going 6-6. The Bearcats had eight games with totals in the 50s. In those contests, the ‘under’ cashed at a 5-3 clip.
The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UF. In the Gators’ five games with a total in the 50s, the ‘under’ went 5-0.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Tebow rushed for a team-high 853 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009. He had an 18/5 TD-INT ratio.
Florida WR and return specialist Brandon James is “out” with a foot injury sustained in the loss to Alabama. James enjoyed a stellar career and will go down as the best punt and kick returner in UF history.
Meyer’s Flip-Flop Fiasco has already paid dividends for FSU, which talked five-star recruit Matt Elam into switching his commitment from UF to the Seminoles on Wednesday. Elam, a West Palm Beach product who had been a verbal pledge for the Gators since October of 2008, had planned to enroll early at Florida. The rest of UF’s commitments remain with the Gators – for now.
After three straight losses in bowl games, Oklahoma finally collected a postseason victory Thursday when it beat Stanford by a 31-27 count. However, the Sooners failed to cover the number as double-digit favorites.
With Air Force spanking Houston 47-20 at the Armed Forces Bowl, the Mountain West improved to 4-0 during the bowl season. A fifth team – TCU – will face Boise St. in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need To Know: Outback Bowl
By ADAM THOMPSON
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers (-8, 55)
You want offensive fireworks? The Outback Bowl may provide more of them than any other January bowl game.
Both Northwestern (8-4) and Auburn (7-5) feature productive spread offense attacks and defenses that have struggled mightily against the pass at times.
Line movement
The opening line of 8 went down to 7 on most boards, but as of Wednesday was back up to 8 and even 9 on one Las Vegas board. The total of 54.5 has remained unchanged.
Weather forecast
Fan grogginess from a memorable New Year’s Eve in Tampa will play more of a role than weather. Friday’s forecast for the 11 a.m. (ET) start calls for partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 60s.
Auburn’s uber-balance
Northwestern is going to have a tough time stopping Auburn’s offense. The Tigers scored 30 or more points in seven of their 12 games this year. And in terms of production, no team is as balanced as Auburn, which is averaging 213.8 yards rushing and 218.5 yards passing per game.
With its own spread, Chris Todd (21 TDs, 6 INTs) has been a steady signal-caller, and running back Ben Tate, playing in the shadow of Alabama’s Mark Ingram, rushed for a relatively quiet 1,254 yards and eight touchdowns.
Northwestern has been strong against the run, allowing only 123.5 yards per game in the physical Big Ten. That includes holding a powerful Wisconsin rushing attack to just 99 yards in a 33-31 win in the Wildcats’ season finale.
In Auburn’s SEC losses, the Tigers struggled to generate a rushing attack that it needs to set up the pass.
Using pass to set up the run
Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka mastered the quick-hitting spread offense in his first full season at the helm, leading the Big Ten in completions (193), attempts (297) and percentage (65 percent) and the fewest interceptions (seven).
He and his receivers will face a stern test against an Auburn defense that allowed only 191.8 yards through the air per game. But the Tigers’ secondary has been susceptible to high-scoring attacks.
Northwestern hasn’t generated a consistent running game (119.9 ypg), which may allow Auburn to put more resources into stopping the pass.
Kafka will have to avoid too many meetings with Tigers senior defensive end Antonio Coleman, who led the SEC with 15.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks.
Close calls
Three of Auburn’s five losses came by seven points or less, including a 31-24 loss at Georgia and 26-21 defeat to Alabama to end the regular season. Meanwhile, of Northwestern’s eight victories, six came by seven points or fewer.
Finally getting healthy
One thing about the long break between regular season and bowl games – teams have the opportunity to get healthy.
Because of big injury concerns early on, Northwestern’s defense is significantly better now than at the start of the season. In fact, the Outback Bowl will present the first time the Wildcats will field the defensive lineup they expected to going into the season.
Defensive end Corey Wootton, an All-Big Ten pick last year, had four sacks and six tackles for loss in the final five games after having zero in each of the first seven after battling injuries. All-conference safety Brad Phillips led the team in tackles despite coming into the season hobbled after off-season surgery. And All-conference corner Sherrick McManis and fifth-year safety Brendan Smith are finally healthy and ready to go.
Other notes
Auburn has won six of its last eight bowl games. Despite its recent success in the program, Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1949 Rose Bowl.
Auburn finished last in the SEC in points allowed (26.9 ppg), but has the week-in, week-out grind of the SEC prepared the Tigers for anything that can come its way on New Year’s Day?
When asked which Big Ten defense reminded him of Auburn’s, Kafka responded “a lot like Michigan State’s.”
Northwestern lost at Michigan State 24-14 on Oct. 17.
Other trends
The under is 7-0 in Auburn’s last seven bowl games.
Northwestern is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as favorite.
What Bettors Need To Know: Gator Bowl
By RICKY DIMON
Florida State Seminoles vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 60)
The Gator Bowl gets the third pick among bowls with ACC tie-ins, and Florida State, needless to say, is not the No. 3 team in the conference. When it was announced that Bobby Bowden would not return next season, however, bowl executives wanted to make sure Bowden’s last game came in a prestigious Florida game.
Florida State (6-6, 3-9 ATS) just barely made itself eligible for postseason play by squeaking out six victories. They won two straight over Wake Forest and Maryland to close out ACC play in style before getting drubbed by Florida 37-10.
West Virginia (9-3, 5-6 ATS) saw its Big East title hopes come to end with a narrow 24-21 loss to Cincinnati, but the Mountaineers bounced back with wins over Pittsburgh and Rutgers.
Line movements
West Virginia opened as a 3-point favorite at most betting sites, but the line has moved down to 2.5. The total opened at 60 and has rarely wavered outside of 60 and 61.
Infirmary report
Freshman quarterback E.J. Manuel will make his fourth straight start for the Seminoles in place of Christian Ponder, who suffered a shoulder injury in early November and is out for the season.
All-American guard Rodney Hudson said last Monday that he is approaching full health in his ongoing recovery from a sprained MCL. Hudson is listed as probable on FSU’s injury report.
The Mountaineers will be without strong safety Nate Sowers and defensive tackle Scooter Berry, both due to academic ineligibility. Sowers started 11 of 12 games while Berry, arguably the team’s best lineman when he is on the field, missed four full games and parts of others as a result of a shoulder injury and mid-season suspension.
Bowden Bowl
This year’s Gator Bowl will be all about Bowden, and even West Virginia coach Bill Stewart knows it.
“I’ve told the guys this: there’s going to be 70,000 crimson, gold and white Florida State fans against about 15,000 of us,” Stewart told reporters. “Our men know they’re going to be up against it, and if they don’t, they’re going to know real quick as soon as we come through that tunnel.”
Of course, the situation is not an easy one for Florida State, either.
Linebacker Bert Reed said that a loss in Bowden’s final game “can’t happen.” Added Reed, “That pressure that we all have to do well, it's good pressure.”
“I think guys really sense that this is important; that this is a must win for us,” Ponder concluded.
Devine intervention
West Virginia is second in the Big East in rushing, averaging 183.8 yards per game on the ground. Junior running back Noel Devine is racking up 108.1 yards per contest, also second in the conference.
The Seminoles, who allow more than 200 rushing yards per outing, are last in the ACC in both total defense and rushing defense. They faced two of the ACC’s top three rushing offenses in Clemson and Georgia Tech, surrendering 241 rushing yards to the Tigers and 401 to the Yellow Jackets.
Devine, who is fifth on West Virginia’s all-time rushing list with 3,213 yards, could end his career at No. 2 in school history if he returns for his senior season. “I just keep playing and playing and playing,” Devine said of having to answer NFL-related questions. “Right now my mind is just focusing on coming back and winning a national championship.”
Trending topics
The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. However, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 contests against ACC opponents.
Florida State (8-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over/under play this season, while West Virginia (6-5 O/U) has not been a strong play.
The over is 6-2 in the Seminoles’ last eight games overall and 5-0 in their last five bowl games. The over is also 5-0 in the Mountaineers’ last five bowl games and 5-1 in their last six non-conference games.
Northwestern (8-4, 5-6 ATS) vs. Auburn (7-5, 6-5 ATS)
Northwestern makes its third-ever New Year’s Day bowl appearance and first since 1996 when it tackles the Tigers at Raymond James Stadium.
The Wildcats closed the regular season with three straight outright upsets, beginning with a 17-10 victory of then-unbeaten Iowa as a 14-point underdog and ending with a 33-31 home win over Wisconsin as a seven-point pup on Nov. 21. All three victories came by a total of 14 points, and all seven of Northwestern’s Division I-A victories were decided by a total of 34 points, with an average margin of victory of 4.9 points.
Contrary to the Wildcats, Auburn started strong, ripping off five straight wins (4-1) to begin the season, then stumbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven, going 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) against Division I-A opponents (all SEC foes). The Tigers ended the regular season with two narrow losses to Georgia (31-24 as a four-point road underdog) and archrival Alabama (26-21 as a 10-point home ‘dog). Against the then-second-ranked Crimson Tide, Auburn jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and finished with a 332-291 yardage edge (151-73 on the ground), but gave up the game-deciding touchdown with 1:24 left.
The Wildcats have lost six straight bowls (2-4 ATS) since winning the 1948 Rose Bowl. Last year, they fell to Nebraska 30-23 in the Alamo Bowl, but covered as a 12-point underdog. The Tigers, who missed out on the postseason last year, have won five of their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS), and they’re 4-3 SU and ATS against Big Ten opponents in bowls. Overall, eight of Auburn’s last 10 postseason contests have been decided by seven points or less, including a 23-20 overtime upset victory over Clemson as a 2½-point pup in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Northwestern puts up 25.2 points and 386 yards per game, including 266 passing ypg, as QB Mike Kafka battled through injuries to complete 65.7 percent of his throws for 2,898 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs, along with 265 rushing yards and seven additional scores. The defense surrenders 23.3 points and 344.2 ypg (123.5 rushing ypg).
Auburn averaged a tick under 33 ppg while piling up 432.3 ypg, with a balanced attack of rushing (213.8 ypg, 5.0 yards per carry) and passing (218.5 ypg), as QB Chris Todd (2,377 passing yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs) enjoyed a solid season. However, the Tigers struggled defensively, giving up 27 points and 353.5 total ypg (161.7 rushing ypg), surrendering 26 points or more in seven of the last 10 contests.
Northwestern has cashed in 10 of its last 13 as an underdog (including eight outright upsets) and 21 of 27 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, but on the downside, the Wildcats are in ATS ruts of 1-5 in non-conference play, 16-34-1 after a SU victory and 4-9 following a spread-cover. Auburn’s ATS trends are all negative, including 2-4 overall, 0-3 as a favorite, 2-7 after a SU loss and 2-4 after a spread-cover.
The Wildcats carry “under” trends of 4-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 as an underdog and 4-1 as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points, and Auburn is on “under” runs of 7-0 in bowl games, 4-0 when favored in a bowl, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 in January and 4-1-1 when coming off a defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN and UNDER
Florida State (6-6, 3-8 ATS) vs. (18) West Virginia (9-3, 5-6 ATS)
Legendary coach Bobby Bowden will roam the Florida State sidelines for the final time when he leads the Seminoles into Municipal Stadium against West Virginia, the team for which Bowden once coached.
Bowden, who left West Virginia for Florida State in 1976 and is the second-winningest coach in Division I-A history with 315 victories, announced his retirement Nov. 30, two days after his team got blown out 37-10 at Florida as a 25½-point road underdog. The Seminoles were outgained by a whopping 545-281 margin at Florida, the fourth straight game in which they were out-yarded. Florida State did close the ACC campaign by winning four of its final five games, but went just 2-7 ATS in its last nine regular-season contests.
The Mountaineers closed the campaign with a trio of three-point games against Cincinnati (24-21 road loss), Pitt (19-16 home win) and Rutgers (24-21 road win). West Virginia covered the spread in all three games, a moneymaking run that came on the heels of an 0-4 ATS slide.
This is a rematch of the 2005 Gator Bowl (2004 season), a game Florida State won 30-18 as a 10-point favorite. In fact, the Seminoles’ NCAA-best 28 consecutive bowl appearances began in the 1982 Gator Bowl with a 31-12 victory over the Mountaineers. FSU is 21-10 SU and 19-10-1 ATS in bowl games under Bowden, including a 42-13 rout of Wisconsin as a six-point favorite in last year’s Champs Sports Bowl.
Since losing to Florida State in the Gator Bowl four years ago, West Virginia has won four straight bowl games (2-2 ATS, with the ‘dog covering in all four). Last year in the Meineke Bowl, it edged North Carolina 31-30 as a two-point favorite. However, the Mountaineers are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS all time in the Gator Bowl.
Prior to getting shut down by Florida, the Seminoles had scored 24 points or more in six straight games, averaging 35.5 ppg. However, the defense has been the weak link all year, giving up nearly 31 points and 444.3 yards per game (203.2 rushing ypg). Take away two home games against instate foes (17-7 loss to South Florida; 19-9 non-lined win over Jacksonville State), and Florida State surrendered an average of 34.3 points in its other 10 contests, yielding 37 points or more five times.
West Virginia tallied between 30 and 35 points in each of its first five games, but was held to 24 points or less in its final seven contests. However, the defense was solid all year, holding 10 of 12 opponents to 24 points or less. For the season, the Mountaineers averaged 26.6 points and 381.6 total yards per game (183.5 rushing ypg) and gave up 20.8 points and 330 yards per contest (118.4 rushing ypg).
The ‘Noles failed to cash in four of their last five overall and five of their last six against winning teams, but they’re also on positive pointspread rolls of 4-0-1 in bowl games, 7-0-1 at neutral sites, 8-3-1 after a SU loss, 3-0-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 3-0-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less. The Mountaineers’ 3-0 ATS run to end the regular season is offset by pointspread dips of 1-4 in non-conference games, 3-11 against the ACC, 1-4 as a favorite, 2-5 in bowl games and 4-14 when coming off a spread-cover.
The under is 6-2 in FSU’s last eight games against Big East competition, but otherwise the Seminoles are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in non-conference play, 5-0 in bowl games, 8-1 as an underdog, 7-1 in neutral venues, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 19-7 after a SU loss. Similarly, West Virginia carries “over” trends of 5-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in January, 5-1 in non-league contests and 6-1 against ACC foes. Finally, the 2005 Gator Bowl battle between these schools snuck over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) LSU (9-3, 5-7 ATS) vs. (11) Penn State (10-2, 5-6 ATS)
LSU shoots for its fifth straight double-digit bowl victory when it travels to Citrus Bowl Stadium to battle the Nittany Lions, who are playing in a January bowl game for the fourth time in the last five years.
The Tigers alternated wins and losses over their final five regular-season games, capped by a 33-30 overtime victory over SEC rival Arkansas on Nov. 28, falling just short as a 3½-point home favorite. LSU won despite getting outgained 375-326 as it bounced back from a heartbreaking 25-23 loss at Ole Miss the previous week. Les Miles’ squad started out 5-0 (2-3 ATS), then went 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS down the stretch.
Penn State’s Rose Bowl hopes died with a 24-7 home loss to Ohio State as a 5½-point favorite on Nov. 7, but the Nittany Lions rebounded with a pair of wins to close the regular season, topping Indiana 31-20 as a 24-point home favorite and routing Michigan State 42-14 as a three-point road chalk. Joe Paterno’s two losses came against two Big Ten foes (Iowa and Ohio State) that are playing in BCS Bowl games.
This is only the second meeting between these college football powerhouses, the first coming in the 1973 Orange Bowl, which Penn State won 16-9.
The Tigers have destroyed their last four bowl opponents by a combined score of 157-44, cashing in all four games, including last year’s 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech as a 4½-point underdog in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Penn State lost to USC 38-24 as a 10-point underdog in last year’s Rose Bowl, ending a three-game postseason winning streak (2-1 ATS). Lions coach Joe Paterno not only has the most wins of any coach in Division I-A history, but he has the most bowl victories, too, going 23-11-1 SU and 21-10-1 ATS. He’s also 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason games against SEC competition.
The Big Ten had won and covered four straight Capital One Bowls against the SEC prior to Georgia’s 24-12 rout of Michigan State last year.
LSU scored 30 points or more five times this year and averages 25.5 points per game, but just 309.8 total yards per game (180 passing ypg). Defense carried the Tigers all year, though, holding seven of 12 opponents to 16 points or less and surrendering just 16 points and 326.2 total yards per outing. However, after giving up 293 ypg in starting out 7-1, LSU yielded an average of 393.8 ypg in its last four (2-2 SU).
Penn State outscored its opponents by nearly 18 ppg (29.7-11.8) and outgained them by 135.4 yards per game (412.5-277.1). The Lions grinded out 173.6 rushing ypg (4.9 ypc) and held opposing ground attacks to 94 ypg (2.9 ypc). Defensively, they rank fourth nationally in points allowed, eighth in total yards allowed and 10th against the run.
In addition to their 4-0 ATS run in bowl games, the Tigers are on pointspread upticks of 15-6 in non-conference action, 4-1 as a bowl underdog and 4-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, LSU carries negative ATS trends of 6-13 overall, 4-9 after a SU win, 8-20 on grass and 1-4-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less.
Penn State has failed to cash in four straight non-conference contests, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall (all as a favorite), 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU victory.
The over is 4-0 in LSU’s last four Big Ten contests and its last four Friday outings, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 4-1 in non-conference play and 5-2 as a ‘dog of three points or less. It’s all “unders” for Penn State, including 5-2 in bowl games, 8-3 as a chalk, 4-1 as a favorite in the postseason, 5-2 in January, 4-1 in non-conference play and 4-0 against SEC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(8) Ohio State (10-2, 8-4 ATS) vs. (7) Oregon (10-2, 7-5 ATS)
Ohio State returns to the Rose Bowl for the 14th time, but just the first since the 1996 season, while the Ducks are back in the “Granddaddy of Them All” for the first time since 1994 in the annual Pac-10/Big Ten clash from Pasadena.
The Buckeyes reeled off five straight victories (3-2 ATS) to finish the regular season, including a 24-7 upset win over 11th-ranked Penn State as a 5½-point road underdog followed the next week by a 27-24 victory over 15th-ranked Iowa as a 16½-point home chalk. Ohio State then secured its fifth straight BCS Bowl appearance by knocking off archrival Michigan 21-10 in the regular-season finale on Nov. 21, falling just short of covering as an 11-point road favorite.
Oregon began the year ranked 16th in the country but suffered an ugly 19-8 loss at Boise State in new coach Chip Kelly’s first game. In that defeat, the Ducks fell as a 3½-point road underdog, got outgained 361-152 and lost star RB LeGarrette Blount to a long suspension after Blount sucker-punched a Boise State player after the game. Kelly rallied his troops from there, though, as the Ducks won their next seven in a row (6-1 ATS) and 10 of 11 (7-3 ATS). In a winner-take-all showdown for the Pac-10 title against archrival Oregon State on Dec. 3, Oregon rallied for a 37-33 victory, failing to cash as a 9½-point home favorite but clinching just the fifth Rose Bowl berth in school history.
Ohio State has won all seven meetings against Oregon, but the last came way back in 1987. These teams also met in the 1957 Rose Bowl, which the Buckeyes won 10-7.
Under coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State is 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason, but it has lost four of its last five bowls, all of them BCS contests. Last year, the Buckeyes played Texas tough in the Fiesta Bowl, but gave up a TD with 16 seconds left to fall 24-21 as an eight-point underdog. The ‘dog has cashed in five of OSU’s last seven bowl contests, with the Buckeyes going 4-1 ATS as bowl pup during this span (including three outright upsets).
Oregon is making its fifth straight postseason appearance and 12th in the last 13 years, going 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. Last year, the Ducks scored a wild 42-31 win over Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl, cashing as a 2½-point underdog, and that followed a 56-21 Sun Bowl rout of South Florida as a six-point underdog in 2007. The pup is 8-1 ATS in Oregon’s last nine postseason games.
Ohio State scored just 24, 27 and 21 points in its final three games after tallying 30 or more in seven of its first nine outings. Led by sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor (1,821 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, 23 total TDs, 10 INTs), the Buckeyes put up 29.2 points and 364.8 total yards per game, including a whopping 199.5 rushing ypg (4.7 per carry). Also, Ohio State’s defense was rock solid all year, holding nine opponents to 18 points or less, including posting three shutouts and giving up a single touchdown twice. Only Navy (27), Purdue (26) and Iowa (24) cracked the 20-point barrier against the Buckeyes, who ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (12.2 ppg), total defense (262.5 ypg) and rushing defense (83.4 ypg).
After struggling out of the gate, Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli came on strong and finished the year with 2,066 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs, while adding 659 rushing yards and another 12 touchdowns. The Ducks had scored 42 points or more in five straight games before being “held” to 37 in the finale against Oregon State. They finished averaging 37.7 points (7th nationally) and 424.7 total yards per game, including 236.1 rushing ypg (6th nationally) and 5.5 yards per rush (4th nationally). Defensively, Oregon gave up 20 points or less in six of its first eight games before yielding an average of 36.5 ppg over the final four outings.
Ohio State is on ATS runs 37-19 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 6-1-1 against the Pac-10, 7-1 versus winning teams, 10-2 following a SU victory, 22-5 on grass, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points. The Ducks are on pointspread surges of 7-3 overall, 7-3 in bowls, 4-1 on Friday and 9-3 after a SU win.
Other than a 5-2 “over” streak in January bowl games, the Buckeyes are on nothing but “under” runs, including 8-2-1 overall, 7-1 outside the Big Ten, 5-1 versus Pac-10 competition, 5-0 as an underdog and 3-0-1 when playing on grass. Conversely, Oregon carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 against Big Ten foes, 15-4-2 as a favorite, 15-5-1 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 after a SU win. However, the Ducks have stayed low in five of seven postseason games, and the under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(3) Cincinnati (12-0, 6-6 ATS) vs. (5) Florida (12-1, 6-6 ATS)
Two teams going through a lot of coaching turmoil meet up at the Superdome in the Big Easy, where Cincinnati tries to complete its first-ever perfect season with a victory over the defending-champion Gators.
Cincinnati needed a miracle to claim its second straight Big East title and second straight BCS Bowl berth, rallying from a 31-10 first-half deficit at Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 for a 45-44 victory, failing to cover as a two-point road favorite in what amounted to a conference title game. The Bearcats, who scored the deciding TD and ensuing extra-point with 33 seconds left at Pitt, won three of their final four games (all against Big East foes Pitt, West Virginia and UConn) by a total of six points while posting double-digit wins in eight of their other nine victories.
Shortly after the Pitt victory, Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly resigned to take the Notre Dame job. The Bearcats have since hired Central Michigan’s Butch Jones as Kelly’s replacement, but offensive coordinator Jeff Quinn – Kelly’s assistant for 22 years – will serve as the interim coach for this game before he departs and becomes the full-time head coach at Buffalo.
Florida’s 22-game winning streak – the longest at the time in the nation and the longest in school history – went up in flames in a 32-13 loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game Dec. 5, falling as a five-point favorite. In the defeat, the Gators offense produced a season-low in points and yards (335, including just 88 rushing) and its defense gave up a season-high in points and yards (490, including 251 on the ground). Alabama had the ball for nearly 40 minutes, thanks to converting 11 of 15 third-down tries, as it ended Florida’s hopes for back-to-back national titles.
Gators coach Urban Meyer was hospitalized with chest pains after the Alabama loss, then announced on Saturday that he would step down after this game because of health concerns. A day later, he altered course and said he’d take an indefinite leave of absence following the Sugar Bowl, putting the program in the hands of offensive coordinator Steve Addazio after tonight.
This is the first meeting between these schools since 1984, when Florida rolled 48-17. Ironically, Meyer is a Cincinnati alum.
The Gators are going bowling for the 19th straight time and 37th time in school history. Last year, they knocked off Oklahoma 24-14 as a 4½-point favorite to win the national championship, their second in three years under Meyer. Meyer is 5-1 SU and ATS all-time in bowl games (3-1 SU and ATS with Florida).
Cincinnati reached its first BCS game last year, losing the Orange Bowl to Virginia Tech 20-7 as a 2½-point favorite. This is the Bearcats’ third straight bowl appearance, and while they won the first two prior to last year’s Orange Bowl setback, they failed to cover in all three contests. In fact, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven postseason outings.
Under Kelly’s guidance, Cincinnati had one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking sixth nationally in points scored (39.8 per game), total yards (464.3 per game) and passing yards (320.3 per game). The Bearcats also averaged 144 ypg on the ground (5.1 ypc). QB Tony Pike missed several games due to an injured left (non-throwing) forearm, but still passed for 2,349 yards (63 percent completion rate) with 26 TDs and just six INTs, while his backup Zach Collaros was also solid (75 percent, 1,434 yards, 10 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 2 INTs). Cincinnati scored 34 points or more eight times, topping the 40-point more on six occasions.
The Bearcats’ defense was solid through the first eight games, giving up 20 points or less each time out (average of 12.9 ppg). But they struggled down the stretch, allowing 45, 21, 36 and 44 points (36.5 ppg). Cincinnati was particularly susceptible against the run, giving up 141.6 rushing ypg overall and 188 rushing ypg over its final three outings.
During their 22-game winning streak, the Gators had posted 20 double-digit wins and gone 15-5 ATS in lined action, while the defense held all 22 opponents to 21 points or less. This year, including the debacle against Alabama, Florida averaged 34.7 points and 442.4 total yards per game (225.2 rushing ypg; 5.6 yards per rush). However, despite the presence of third-year starting QB Tim Tebow, the Gators were held to 29 points or less seven times. Although Tebow (2,413 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 5 INTs; 859 rushing yards, 13 TDs) had a subpar year by his standards, he still enters this game with 8,803 career passing yards, 2,896 career rushing yards and 141 career TDs (85 passing, 56 rushing).
On the other side of the ball, Florida ranked third in scoring defense (11.5 ppg), fourth in total defense (252.8 ypg) and second in passing defense (150.5 ypg, 7 TD passes allowed). However, with the meltdown against Alabama, the Gators are yielding 102.3 rushing ypg, but have only allowed six rushing TDs.
Cincinnati is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, but was only a pup once this year (in a season-opening 47-15 rout of Rutgers as a 4½-point road ‘dog). Otherwise, the Bearcats are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 overall (all as a chalk), 0-5 in non-conference play, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 after a non-cover. Conversely, the Gators are on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 15-6 overall (all as a chalk), 20-7 in non-conference play, 20-6 against winning teams, 4-1 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 4-0 after a SU loss and 7-2 after an ATS setback.
The Bearcats are on “under” runs of 6-1 in bowl games, 4-0 in non-league contests and 5-2 on artificial turf. Florida is on “over” stretches of 6-2 in bowls, 7-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 in January contests, but the Gators have stayed low in eight of 11 overall (all as a favorite) and seven of nine when laying more than 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
What Bettors Need To Know: Rose Bowl
By DAVID PAYNE
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks (-4, 50.5)
It wasn’t that long ago when everyone, including the Big Ten, was pissing on the Pac-10.
Now, the West Coasters are clearly the more talented conference.
That’s certainly the perception heading into Friday’s Rose Bowl matchup between speedy Oregon with its new-age uniforms and old-fashioned Ohio State with its sweater vest.
But is that perception reality? Are the Buckeyes, who are 9-3 ATS, really out-classed against the Ducks (7-5 ATS)?
The spread
The Ducks opened up as 3.5-point favorites and had been bet up to 4 by the beginning of the week. It wouldn’t be shocking to see it climb higher by Friday’s 4:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff. You have to look pretty hard to find much betting support for the Buckeyes out there.
The total
It opened at 50.5 and has stayed put at just over seven touchdowns.
Only North Carolina State produced more overs than Oregon, which went 9-3 over/under with an average total of 55.
The explosive Ducks average 37.7 points per game and surrender 23.6 ppg. They averaged 32 points against the three best statistical defenses they faced this season (Arizona, Arizona State and Boise State).
In contrast, Ohio State, with its dominating defense and lackluster offense, went 3-8-1 over/under, with an average total of 46.
Ohio State averaged 29.3 ppg and allowed an average of just 12.2 ppg.
The Buckeyes surrendered more than 18 points only three times this season and posted three shutouts, but they faced only one team ranked in the Top 40 in total offense all season.
The quarterbacks
Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor: For the most heavily recruited player in the nation, the Buckeyes’ sophomore quarterback sure hasn’t been able to handle the spotlight. Head coach Jim Tressel once again is trying to shield Pryor from the media. No other quarterback gets treated more with kid gloves than Pryor, which makes you question his mental fortitude.
You also have to question his arm, which, to be blunt, is inaccurate and weak. He’s thrown for more than 200 yards only three times all season and has a 16-to-10 TD-INT ratio.
Of course, Pryor is a big-time weapon on the ground, capable of making Vince Young-like plays with his legs. Oregon would prefer to keep him in the pocket, where he’s not much of a threat.
The Buckeyes rank 106th in passing offense.
Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli: Much like Pryor, Masoli’s more of a force on the ground. He runs the read option as well as anyone and is especially effective in short-yardage situations.
No one is going to mistake Masoli for Tom Brady, or even Joey Harrington, in terms of being a polished passer, but he is significantly more dangerous than Pryor in the passing game.
He’s thrown for more than 200 yards five times, with a 15-to-5 TD-INT ratio.
Key notes
* Oregon handled Purdue and USC with relative ease while Ohio State lost to both.
* The Buckeyes own the nation’s fifth-best defense and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. Oregon’s LeMichael James has gone over the 100-yard mark in seven straight games, leading the Ducks’ sixth-ranked rushing offense.
* Oregon kicker Morgan Flint is 15 of 17 on field goals. OSU’s Aaron Pettrey is 13 of 19.
* The Buckeyes are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass.
* This is Chip Kelly’s first bowl game as a head coach. Tressel is coaching in his eighth, going 5-3 ATS in those bowls.
Injuries, suspensions
Ohio State: Tressel suspended senior wide receivers Duron Carter and Ray Small and defensive lineman Rob Rose. Small is the biggest lost, because he’s also the Buckeyes’ top punt returner. But these aren’t game-changing losses.
Oregon: The Ducks have no impactful injuries.
What Bettors Need To Know: Sugar Bowl
By PATRICK GARBIN
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators (-13, 57)
With two teams perhaps experiencing a lack of motivation and both with coaching-related concerns, this year’s Sugar Bowl is likely the most curious and confusing game of the postseason - and possibly the most difficult bowl game for bettors to determine.
Line movement
The line opened with Florida as a 10-point favorite but immediately jumped to -12 when it was announced Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly had taken the Notre Dame job. The line has gone up even further since the announcement. As the line has moved up, so has the total, increasing a point and a half since it opened at 55.5.
Significant injuries/suspensions
Florida wide receiver/returner Brandon James, who leads the Gators in all-purpose yardage, will miss the Sugar Bowl after having surgery on his right foot. James broke his foot against Alabama in the SEC title game.
After missing the SEC Championship Game due to a suspension, Florida’s Carlos Dunlap has been upgraded to probable. The junior defensive end was defensive MVP of last year’s BCS title game and a 2009 All-SEC selection.
Coaching carousel
Kelly’s abrupt departure from Cincinnati to Notre Dame was announced only moments prior to the Bearcats’ annual team banquet. Many players voiced their concern and anger over the coach’s abandonment.
Jeff Quinn, Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator, was passed over for the Bearcats’ head-coaching position for Central Michigan’s Butch Jones. Quinn was hired as Buffalo’s head coach less than two weeks ago but will coach the Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl.
At Florida, acclaimed defensive coordinator Charlie Strong accepted the head position at Louisville; he will still coach the Gator defense in the bowl. On Christmas Day, apparently for health reasons, head coach Urban Meyer decided he’d quit coaching following the Sugar Bowl. A couple days later, Meyer decided he would instead take a leave of absence and believes he’ll be back for the 2010 season.
Whether it’s damaged psyches or a whirlwind of coaching drama, the turmoil surrounding the Sugar Bowl should definitely take its toll on some players.
Bearcat blemish
Cincinnati entered the season returning just one starter from last season’s Orange Bowl squad. Nevertheless, through the first two months of the season, the Bearcats had the ninth-best scoring defense and 24th-ranked total defense in the nation.
In its final four games, however, Cincinnati’s defense was riddled by Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois and Pittsburgh. The quartet averaged nearly 37 points and more than 424 yards per game, including 191 rushing yards and 11 total rushing touchdowns.
Florida’s strength is its running attack. Its 5.62 yards-per-carry average is third best in the FBS.
Last hurrah
In almost every instance, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow has guided the Gators to victory after victory in each big game. The recent loss to Alabama is the rare exception.
Tebow is playing his final game of a brilliant collegiate career—one of the best in college football history. Even on simply will alone, the senior is capable of leading Florida to a win.
I expect Tebow is looking for vengeance against the Bearcats. It is inconceivable to see him lose back-to-back games.
“We've got to finish strong,” said Tebow. "It's the last game I'm going to play as a Gator. Obviously, I want to win it very badly."
Key matchup
Cincinnati’s Mardy Gilyard might be the most dynamic player in college football. He has caught 80 passes for 1,150 yards, ranks second in the nation in all-purpose yardage, and has scored 15 touchdowns four different ways: 11 receiving, two on kick returns, one punt return and one rushing.
All-American Joe Haden, a Thorpe Award finalist and considered maybe the best cornerback to ever play at Florida, will likely be assigned to cover Gilyard most, if not all, the time.
Even if Haden can contain Gilyard, the senior receiver and Florida native averages nearly 13 yards per punt return and 32 yards per kickoff.
“I've been dreaming about this game [against Florida] for like 12 years now. I'm ready,'' Gilyard said.
Trends
Since 2005, Florida is 11-3 straight up and 13-1 ATS against AP Top-10 opponents. The Gators’ lone ATS loss came in their last game against No. 2 Alabama.
Cincinnati has won only three of seven bowl games this decade, worse, the Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in those contests.
The total has gone under in 12 of Cincinnati’s last 22 games and 10 of Florida’s last 14.
The Granddaddy of Them All
By SportsPic
The eighth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes and seventh-ranked Oregon Ducks square off in the 96th edition of the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Buckeyes relying heavily on the run (199.5 RYG) managed 29.2 points/game while allowing just 12.2 PPG in going 10-2 (9-3 ATS) on the season capturing it's fifth straight Big Ten title. Buckeyes enter this clash 13-3 ATS the past sixteen games including a perfect 3-0 ATS in an underdog roll a situation they find themselves New Year's Day. OSU enters 5-4 SU & ATS it's last nine bowling including 0-3 (1-2 ATS) the past three years and come in 3-3 (4-2 ATS) it's last six vs a Pac-10 opponent including a 15-18 loss to USC this year as 7 point dogs. As for Oregon, the Ducks also ended the campaign 10-2 (7-5 ATS) behind one of the nations best offense (7th) scoring 37.7 PPG on 424.7 total yards split between 188.6 passing, 236.1 rushing yards/game. Closing out 3-0 (1-2 ATS) including a 37-33 win over Oregon State in the Civil War gave the squad the Pac Ten Championship and a date with OSU in the Rose Bowl. Ducks participating in its fifth straight bowl game (2-2 SU/ATS) are 4-4 (5-3 ATS) the past nine years of bowl action. As for head-head play vs Big Ten foes, Ducks are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) last seven encounters including a 38-36 win over Purdue this season losing the cash a -13 point favorites.
Cincinnati vs. Florida
By Scott Rickenbach
The location of this game certainly favors the Gators and the Bearcats are not known for traveling well. In other words, there is certainly the feel of a “home field edge” for Florida here as they should be very well supported.
First off, the Urban Meyer coaching controversy has certainly caught a whole lot of headlines and this issue and all the uncertainty it created about his future with Florida has certainly offset the positives for the Gators in terms of this game. Yes, the Gators have edges all over the field and have played a tougher schedule than the Bearcats have but how much has the Meyer distraction impacted this team? Also, we all watched last season as Alabama went into the Sugar Bowl after a disheartening loss in the SEC Title game. Could this be déjà vu in the 2010 Sugar Bowl? One argument for that is that the coaching issue certainly hasn’t helped matters. However, one argument against that is that Gators QB Tim Tebow is a very strong leader in addition to being such a fantastic player. In other words, Tebow and the rest of the Gators could certainly rally here and put on a huge performance against the Bearcats.
Cincinnati will be facing team speed like they really haven’t seen this season. Also, the Gators front seven on defense is very likely to disrupt a Bearcats offense whose biggest strength is its ability to dissect teams with a precision-like passing attack. When that attack sees it timing get disrupted, the Bearcats entire team could get flustered in a hurry. Similar to the write-up we did on the Meineke Car Care Bowl last week, the Gators have some “baggage” here relating to the SEC title game just like the Pitt Panthers had – relating to their loss to Cincinnati in what was essentially a Big East title game. The Panthers persevered and got a tight win over North Carolina. Can Florida do the same? We feel the mindset of this Gators team will be a key as game day approaches.
Looking at player quotes, coaches’ quotes, how the practices are going is likely going to be paramount to picking the pointspread winner in this one. As these teams line-up, one can’t really question that the Gators are the better team but, with all the coaching issues (including defensive coordinator Strong already being hired as the head coach of Louisville) will the Gators have their heads in this game?
If the mental aspect is “there” for the Gators, the physical/match-up edges are certainly “there” as well and that would lead to a Florida romp. But if they come into this weighed down with the burdens of the SEC title game loss and the coaching issues, the Bearcats have enough talent (and confidence) to spring the upset here. Keep a close eye on the “psyche” of this Florida team as game day approaches. From a technical standpoint, note that Gators coach Meyer is 5-1 (83%) ATS in bowl games.