Cincinnati at Louisville: What bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
What would you do with a keg of nails? It’s a weird question, but that is what the football programs at Cincinnati and Louisville have been playing for since 1929. Both teams seem to be hitting their stride in what shapes up to be a interesting matchup on Friday night.
Silent Mike
Search in "Mike Bajakian" in Google News and you won't find anything, but he was the secret weapon behind the success of Dan LeFevour at CMU. Butch Kelly brought him to Cincinnati and he has helped foster the growth of Zach Collaros as QB1, with the junior throwing for nine touchdowns in the last three games. His most impressive display was a 305-yard, three-touchdown performance against Oklahoma.
Surprise rush
Defensive minded Charlie Strong will be expecting a high paced offensive attack, but Bajakian may actually mimic the same gameplan that Oregon State incorporated in their 35-28 win over Louisville. In that game, the Beavers relied more on the run. The Cardinals rank 58th defensively against the rush but it could be much worse as they have struggled against the only two quality teams on their schedule: Oregon State and Kentucky.
Suspect secondary
The Cardinals will counter on offense by attacking the Bearcats secondary, which ranks 111th in the nation in yards allowed. In their losses to Fresno State, North Carolina State and Oklahoma, Cincinnati gave up an average of 316 yards and three scores. Louisville's senior quarterback Adam Froman is making the most of his final year, having thrown for seven touchdowns in his last two games.
Why Cincinnati will cover
The Bearcats have been an entirely different team since running back Isaiah Pead has come back from injury, rushing for 169 yards in their near upset over Oklahoma. The junior followed that up with a 197-yard performance against Miami (Ohio) last week, and on only 10 carries.
"We need to, for one, keep the Keg. That's our mentality right now. Keep the Keg and start taking the steps toward this third championship,” Pead told reporters.
Why Louisville will cover
Rookie coach Charlie Strong has this program on the right path and seems to have the senior leadership on his team to pull off a home upset. The Cardinals played well in their loss to Oregon State and are currently riding a two-game winning streak. The 56-0 blowout over Memphis last week should also give this team a boost in confidence.
Notes and trends
The line opened at -3.5 in favor of Cincinnati and has since dropped to -2.5 at most books. Both teams are coming into the game on ATS win streaks with Louisville riding a three-game ATS streak and the Bearcats covering the spread in their last two games.
Books seem fairly confident with the total. It has remained steady at 58 for most of the week. The under has hit in three of the last four games in this Big East series.
Clear skies and a low of 40 degrees are expected by kickoff with NW winds going at about 10 mph in Louisville.
Bearcats at Cardinals
By: Brad Young
Two-time defending Big East champion Cincinnati begins its conference season with Friday’s matchup at Louisville. Both teams prepared for this contest with a home tune-up that resulted in blowouts. The Cardinals had the upper hand in this rivalry, but the Bearcats have returned the favor the past couple of meetings.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed Cincinnati as 4 ½-point road ‘chalk’ over Louisville, with no college football betting total posted. ESPN will provide coverage of Friday’s Big East matchup beginning at 5:00 p.m. PT.
Cincinnati (2-3 straight up and against the spread) rebounded from a two-game SU losing skid by routing Miami (Ohio) Saturday as a 19 ½-point home favorite, 45-3. The combined 48 points failed to eclipse the 53-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-2.
The Bearcats started the rout early by outscoring the RedHawks in the first quarter, 28-0, and there was no scoring after halftime by either team. Cincinnati finished the contest with advantages in first downs (29-17) and rushing yards (384-42).
Quarterback Zach Collaros was 14-of-17 passing for 216 yards with three touchdowns, connecting with wide receiver Armon Binns five times for 115 yards and two scores. Running back Isaiah Pead paced the potent ground game with 10 carries for 197 yards and a touchdown, while George Winn had 19 carries for 81 yards.
Louisville (3-2 SU and ATS) has now won back-to-back games SU and three consecutive ATS after routing Memphis Saturday as 16-point home ‘chalk,’ 56-0. The 56 points toppled the 51-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 3-1 the past four games.
The Cardinals only led by a touchdown after the first quarter, but blew the game wide open with 28 points in the second quarter. Louisville dominated the Tigers in first downs (22-13), rushing yards (299-39) and passing yards (275-184).
Senior signal caller Adam Froman completed 12-of-16 passes for 235 yards with four touchdowns. Running back Bilal Powell stepped up with 18 carries for 204 yards and a score, while wideout Josh Bellamy caught six passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
Cincinnati has won the last two meetings with Louisville SU and ATS after throttling the Cardinals last season as a 16-point home favorite, 41-10. The combined 51 points failed to topple the 55-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the previous four NCAAF matchups.
Cincinnati running back Darrin Williams (ankle), running back Jared Rains (leg), defensive end Rob Trigg (knee), linebacker Ryan Paxson (ankle) and defensive back Brent Black (knee) are ‘questionable’ with injuries versus the Cardinals.
Louisville wide receiver Damian Copeland (hamstring), defensive back Mike Evans (knee) and offensive guard Kamran Joyer (foot) are ‘questionable’ against the Bearcats.
Cincinnati follows this contest with a two-game conference homestand against South Florida and Syracuse. The Bearcats are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games overall, but the favorite is 10-3 ATS the previous 13 games versus Louisville. Cincinnati has seen the ‘under’ go 16-4-1 its past 21 games in October.
Louisville hosts UConn next weekend before going on a two-game conference road trip versus Pittsburgh and Syracuse. The Cardinals are a dismal 1-7 ATS their last eight Friday games, and 2-10 ATS their previous 12 conference contests. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Louisville’s past eight October outings.
Friday’s forecast for Louisville calls for sunny skies, with a high of 71 degrees and a low of 44.
Cincinnati at Louisville
By Brian Edwards
We stay in the Big East again for this week’s Friday night contest that’s dubbed as the Battle for the Keg of Nails. The venue will be Papa John’s Stadium, where Louisville (3-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) is set to play host to last year’s conference champs.
Most betting shops are listing Cincinnati (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) as a three-point road favorite with a total of 58. Gamblers can back the home underdog to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).
Both schools are breaking in new head coaches and seemingly headed in opposite directions under the new regimes. Perhaps that’s an unfair indictment of Butch Jones after just five games with the Bearcats, but they have clearly been a disappointment to date. On the flip side, Charlie Strong’s team seems to be getting better every week.
“I can understand why Cincinnati is favored in this game,” said veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe. “But Louisville is the team that appears to be making more progress this year. I like what Charlie Strong is doing and at home on national television, this could be a good spot for Louisville.”
The Cardinals are coming off a 56-0 win over Memphis as a 16-point home favorite. Senior quarterback Adam Froman was sensational against the Tigers, connecting on 12-of-16 passes for 235 yards and four touchdowns without being intercepted. Bilal Powell erupted for a career-high 204 rushing yards and two TDs on just 18 carries, while Josh Bellamy had six receptions for 112 yards and two TDs.
U of L has now won back-to-back games, as it beat Arkansas St. 34-24 as a six-point road ‘chalk’ the previous week. Froman threw for 308 yards and three TDs, while Powell had 157 rushing yards and one TD on 21 totes.
The Cardinals have covered the number in three straight games. Before beating Arkansas St., they lost by a 35-28 count at Oregon St. as 20 ½-point underdogs. The Beavers actually got ahead of the number with a 35-14 lead, but the Cards battled back and cut the deficit to seven early in the fourth quarter.
Louisville actually out-yarded Oregon St. by a substantial margin (453-319), but it committed a pair of turnovers and was unable to get a takeaway.
Cincinnati has just a pair of wins over scrub squads (40-7 vs. Indiana St. and 45-3 vs. Miami (OH.)) and has lost at Fresno St. (28-14), at N.C. St. (30-19) and vs. Oklahoma (31-29). But this is the Bearcats’ Big East opener, providing some ‘new life’ in a sense.
The problem hasn’t been the loss of stud QB Tony Pike, who had a 29/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. Junior Zach Collaros has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 1,180 yards while posting an outstanding 12/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has a pair of TD runs and can make plays with his scrambling ability.
Collaros connected on 14-of-17 attempts for 216 yards and three TDs without being intercepted last week against the Red Hawks. Isaiah Pead erupted for 197 rushing yards and one TD on just 10 carries.
Pead, who missed the loss at N.C. St. with an injury, has made his presence felt the last two games. In the loss to Oklahoma in which Cincy took the cash as a 14-point home ‘dog, Pead rushed 21 times for 169 yards.
This is Cincy’s first road favorite spot of the year. During Brian Kelly’s three-year tenure, the Bearcats compiled an 8-6 spread record as road ‘chalk.’ Meanwhile, U of L let down its backers in a season-opening 23-16 loss to Kentucky when catching three points.
The ‘under’ has cashed in both of Cincy’s road assignments this year. Totals have been a wash for the Cards, 2-2 overall and 1-1 in their home games.
When these Big East adversaries met last year in Cincy, the Bearcats cruised to a 41-10 win as 16-point favorites. With Pike injured, Collaros completed 14-of-17 passes for 253 yards and three TDs without a pick. Pead ran for 88 yards and a pair of TDs on just six carries.
ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings for the Keg of Nails.
Froman’s numbers for the season: 59.7 completion percentage, 1,177 passing yards with a 9/4 TD-INT ratio.
Powell is averaging 7.6 yards per carry for the Cards. He has rushed for 689 yards and seven TDs and also has a TD reception.
For the first time this year, let’s give some kudos to Syracuse. The Orange, who went 10-37 from 2005-2008 on Greg Robinson’s watch, is 4-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. Now we’ll concede that the ‘Cuse hasn’t exactly had a murderer’s row type of schedule, but Doug Marrone deserves props nonetheless, especially after winning 13-9 last week at USF.
As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Gators as 7 ½-point favorites vs. Mississippi St. This is just the seventh time UF has been a single-digit home ‘chalk’ during Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. Florida is 5-1 ATS in those spots with the lone non-cover coming in last week’s 33-29 loss to LSU.
When I asked Iskoe for his thoughts on how South Carolina’s upset win over previously top-ranked Alabama would impact those schools this week, he said, “Letdowns can work both ways. I can understand if some think South Carolina will have a hard time getting ‘up’ against Kentucky, but then again the win may pump up the Gamecocks. They may be even more inspired now that winning the SEC East looks like a very real possibility. The tendency is to think Alabama will bounce back, but this is a big number (21) for it to lay (vs. Ole Miss). I don’t think I’ll lay the points, but I am interested in the ‘over’ because Ole Miss has a lot of problems on the defensive side of the ball.”
vegasinsider.com.
Friday's Analysis
Favorite is 10-3 vs spread in last 13 Cincinnati-Louisville games; Cards lost last two years, 41-10/28-20. Bearcats are 1-3 vs I-A opponents after crushing Miami OH 45-3 last week; they losr both road games, 28-14 at Fresno State, 30-19 at NC State. Cincy is 8-6 as road favorite since '07. Louisville beat up on cruddy teams last two weeks; they're 3-5 as home underdog since 2007. Bearcats lost four of last six visits here.
Cincinnati favored at Louisville on Friday
By: Brian Graham
Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros looks for another huge game against conference foe Louisville on Friday night. Collaros was 15-of-17 for 253 yards and three TD as Cincy crushed the Cardinals 41-10 last year. Louisville is riding high after a 56-0 blanking of Memphis where it gained 574 yards including 204 rushing yards by Bilal Powell (11.3 YPC).
Cincinnati’s defense has done a great job stopping the run this year, allowing just 85 rushing yards per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per carry. Collaros is having a tremendous season. He has thrown three touchdowns in each of his past three games to give him 12 TD to just 1 INT for the season. The Bearcats are 0-2 on the road this year, losing at Fresno State and NC State.
Louisville’s offense is also playing at a high level, averaging 461 total YPG including 218 rushing YPG on 5.7 YPC. Powell has 689 rushing yards (7.6 YPC) and seven TD this year. Adam Froman has seven passing touchdowns and just one pick in his past two games.
The favorite is 10-3 ATS (11-2 SU) in this series since 1997. But according to these two FoxSheets trends, underdog Louisville is the pick here:
Play On - Home underdogs (LOUISVILLE) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season. (36-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Against - A road team (CINCINNATI) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (49-19 since 1992.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*).
These FoxSheets trends favor the Under.
CINCINNATI is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in October games since 1992. The average score was CINCINNATI 24.7, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 3*).
Play Under - Any team against the total (LOUISVILLE) - after shutting out their last opponent against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. (30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).