USF at Cincinnati
By Brian Edwards
For the second straight Friday, Cincinnati (3-3 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) will be on the national stage in Big East play. This time around, the Bearcats are at home hosting a struggling South Florida squad under first-year head coach Skip Holtz.
Most betting shops have installed Cincy as a 7½-point favorite with a total of 48. Bettors can take the Bulls to win outright for a plus-250 payout (risk $100 to win $250).
Butch Jones’ team has won back-to-back games and covered the number in each of its last three games. The Bearcats pulled away from Louisville for a 35-27 win as three-point road favorites last Friday night. The 62 combined points went ‘over’ the 55 ½-point total.
Junior quarterback Zach Collaros was the catalyst, completing 18-of-28 passes for 275 yards and five touchdowns. Isaiah Pead rushed for 145 yards on 21 carries, while Armon Binns hauled in eight receptions for 175 yards and three TDs.
Cincy junior WR D.J. Woods had a pair of catches for 61 yards and two scores, but he sustained a concussion on his second TD grab. Nevertheless, he’s listed as ‘probable’ to play vs. USF. For the year, Woods has 31 catches for 550 yards and seven touchdowns.
This space harped on Collaros coming into the year, stating that there would no drop-off at the QB position in spite of the loss of Tony Pike, who got drafted by the Panthers after leading Cincy to an unbeaten record and posting a 29/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a senior.
As expected, Collaros has thrived in Cincy’s offense, producing 1,455 passing yards with a 17/3 TD-INT ratio. Although he hasn’t been as productive with his scrambles compared to last season, Collaros does add that dimension with his ability to elude defenders. He had four rushing touchdowns in 2009 and has two so far this year.
South Florida (3-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) has lost its first two Big East games both SU and ATS, combining to score just 15 total points. In Week 6, Syracuse went into Tampa and captured a 13-9 win as an eight-point road underdog.
Then last week, USF dropped a 20-6 decision at West Virginia as a 10-point road underdog. B.J. Daniels, the mobile QB who had a brilliant debut in an upset win at FSU last year, continued to be mired in an awful sophomore slump. Daniels, a product of Tallahassee Lincoln High School, was intercepted three times by the Mountaineers.
For the season, Daniels has a 4/10 TD-INT ratio and he’s been picked off five times the last two weeks with no touchdown passes. Now in fairness to Daniels, he has been without the team’s top WR for the entire season. A.J. Love, who had 26 receptions for 489 yards and four TDs in ’09, remains ‘out’ with a knee injury.
From 2005-2009, USF cashed tickets at a 8-4 ATS clip in 12 games as a road underdog. However, the Bulls are 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of contests as road ‘dogs this year. In addition to last week’s loss at WVU, they lost a 38-14 decision at Florida as 14½-point ‘dogs in Week 2.
Holtz’s team hasn’t beaten anyone of merit all year. USF opened the campaign with a 59-14 win over Stony Brook in a non-lined affair. The Bulls also have wins over a pair of Sun Belt squads, Western Ky. (24-12) and Florida Atlantic (31-3).
Cincy opened the season by taking a 14-0 lead at Fresno St., only to watch the Bulldogs score 28 straight points en route to a 28-14 triumph as 2½-point home favorites. After trashing Indiana St. 40-7, the Bearcats lost 30-19 at N.C. St. Then in Week 4, Cincy fell to 1-3 in a 31-29 loss to Oklahoma.
But the loss to OU might have been a turning point for the Bearcats, who rallied from a big deficit to make things interesting at crunch time. Most importantly for their backers, they took the money as 14-point home ‘dogs against the Sooners.
Next, Cincy beat Miami-Ohio by a 45-3 score before going to Louisville last week and winning its Big East opener.
This head-to-head rivalry has been all about the Bearcats, who have beaten USF four straight times and five of the last six. They have taken the cash in six consecutive games against the Bulls, who are winless in three trips to Nippert Stadium. Cincy’s three home wins over USF have come by 22, 17 and 14 points.
The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for USF, cashing in each of its last three outings. The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Bearcats.
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Cincy has won seven straight Big East home games.
Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. The Illini are favored by 13 1/2 at home vs. Indiana this week.
Navy is a 6½-point underdog vs. Notre Dame at Giants Stadium in the Meadowlands this week. The Midshipmen are 10-5 ATS when listed as a ‘dog during Ken Niumatalolo’s three-year tenure.
Iowa is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight head-to-head meetings against Wisconsin. The Badgers, who beat up on Ohio St. last week 31-18 to knock the Buckeyes from the unbeaten ranks, fall into a letdown situation somewhat similar to South Carolina’s last week. The Gamecocks beat top-ranked Alabama, only to lose 31-28 at Kentucky seven days later. Wisconsin dropped top-ranked Ohio St. and now has to go on the road for a Big Ten game this weekend.
Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS as a road ‘dog on Brett Bielema’s watch.
Two coaches were issued pink slips this week: Minnesota’s Tim Brewster and North Texas’ Todd Dodge.
Mike Zimmer, the Bengals defensive coordinator who held the same post with the Falcons under Bobby Petrino is 2007, absolutely went off on the Arkansas head coach when asked about his return to Atlanta this weekend. Among other things, Zimmer called Petrino a “gutless MF.” Needless to say, I LOVE it!
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USF at Cincinnati: What bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
Nippert Stadium takes center stage when the Cincinnati Bearcats play hosts to the South Florida Bulls Friday night.
The Bearcats are coming off a decent three-game stretch that included two wins and a near upset of Oklahoma. The Bulls are going in the opposite direction, on a two game losing streak which saw them score just a total of 15 points combined.
Why South Florida will cover
All the talk heading into Friday night is about how bad the South Florida offense is. Much was expected from the arrival of Skip Holtz and of sophomore quarterback B.J. Daniels, but things haven’t worked out as planned. The Bulls failed to score a single touchdown in their first two Big East contests and Daniels already has 10 interceptions.
However, keep in mind that those last two games were against an underrated Syracuse team and No. 19 West Virginia. Their defenses rank 18th and fifth respectively in yards allowed. This week, the Bulls play a much weaker defense and offensive coordinator Todd Fitch has been working with Daniels all week to correct his mistakes,
“If you're talking about him, it's a couple different areas,” Fitch told reporters. “It's seeing the field, seeing whatever the read may be. And a lot of his turnovers have occurred when he's on the scramble.”
“If we blow protection, which is going to happen over a course of a game, step up, use your feet and if it's not there then throw it away, get positive yards,” he said.
Just before the half in the WVU game, the Bulls were only down by seven points and in Mountaineer territory until Daniels threw an interception in the red zone.
There should be improvement this week from Daniels and it doesn’t hurt that they will be up against a pass defense that ranks 104th in the nation. Combine that with a USF defense that held Noel Devine to just 29 yards rushing and you have a good chance to cover the 7.5 points.
Why Cincinnati will cover
This is a confident team. After missing out on a chance to upset Oklahoma, the Bearcats could have easily overlooked their next two opponents, Miami (Ohio) and Louisville. Instead, they carried the momentum from the Sooner game and not only won straight up, but covered the spread in both contests as well.
Quarterback Zach Collaros was been solid all season with 1,455 yards and 17 touchdown passes, but the key on offense has been the return of running back Isaiah Pead. In the last three games, Pead has rushed for an average of 170.3 yards which has kept opposing defenses honest.
History is also on the side of the Bearcats. Cincinnati has won the last four contests in this series and they remain undefeated at home against USF. From a betting standpoint, it gets even better with Cincinnati on a six-game ATS streak against the Bulls.
Line and trends
The line opened up at -8.5 in favor of the home team and has since moved down to -7.5. With consensus opinion on the Bearcats, this suggests that some sharp early money came in on South Florida.
The total opened up at 47 and has seen slight movement up to 48. With offensive problems and a solid defense, the under has hit in the last four USF games. However Cincinnati has hit the over four times in its last five Friday night games.
Partly-cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 40s. South winds will be coming in at 5 to 10 mph.
Tale of the Tape: Cincinnati-South Florida Breakdown
This Big East battle takes place under the Friday night lights. Here’s a quick look at the South Florida Bulls and Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 48):
Offense
The Bearcats rank second in the Big East in total offense, putting up 422.5 yards per game. Those gains have translated into an average of almost 33 points, which is tops in the conference.
Cincinnati depends heavily on its pass. Quarterback Zach Collaros leads the Big East in passing, throwing for 242.5 yards per game, totaling 17 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Two of those picks came in last Friday’s 35-27 win over Louisville, in which Collaros passed for 275 yards and five scores.
South Florida doesn’t have the same pop on offense, averaging just over 23 points. The Bulls rank last in the Big East in total offense, putting up only 314.7 yards per game this season. They have lost two straight games, totaling only 15 points in eight quarters.
Most of those gains come on the ground. South Florida is fourth in rushing in the conference, running for over 157 yards per contest. Senior running back Moise Plancher gets the bulk of the carries, rushing nearly 59 yards per game and four touchdowns. With injuries to the running back corps, Plancher will get the bulk of the action Friday.
Edge: Cincinnati
Defense
The Bulls rank 17th in the nation in total yards allowed, budging for just 300.7 per outing. South Florida, which is third in the Big East in defense, is especially tough on the pass. It gives up just 166 yards through the air per game and has seven interceptions to eight opposing passing TDs.
The Bearcats have the worst defense in the Big East, giving up 366 yards per game. They haven’t been able to slow opposing pass attacks, watching foes throw for 11 scores through the air while picking off only two passes this season. Cincinnati has, however, the conference’s third-best run stop unit, which has more to do with opponents opting to beat the Bearcats through the air than on the ground.
Edge: South Florida
Special teams
The Bulls have been able to make up for their lack of offense with solid special teams play this year. They top the Big East in punt return yardage (14.23 yards per return) and rank fourth in kick returns (23 yards per return) while scoring three special teams touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, USF has given up an average of only six return yards per punt, 20.6 return yards per kickoff and has not allowed an opponent to run a return in for six points this season.
Cincinnati’s special teams have mustered just nine yards per punt return and rank last in the conference with an average of 18.77 yards per kick return. The Bearcats haven’t scored a return touchdown yet this year.
Cincy counteracts that with the best punt coverage in the Big East, giving up only three yards per return. Kick return coverage is another story. The Bearcats allow opposing special teams to return the ball for an average of 22.78 yards per kickoff – third-worst in the league. They have, however, kept rival return units out of the endzone.
Edge: South Florida
Word on the street
"We're right there on the cusp. There's a lot of little penalties that stop drives, little stuff like that. … It's self-inflicted stuff, all across the board.” – USF QB B.J. Daniels on the Bulls’ lack of offensive production in their last two losses (Tampa Bay Times).
"We've just got to keep coaching (ball security) on every snap. It's one of the hardest things to control. It's something that has been extremely disappointing, something that we all take very seriously." – UC head coach Butch Jones on the Bearcats’ turnover troubles. Cincinnati ranks last in turnover margin (-1.00) in the Big East. South Florida is third worst at -0.67 (Cincinnati Enquirer).
Final score prediction: Cincinnati 21, South Florida 17
Collaros leads Cincy into Friday showdown with USF
By: Brian Graham
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS (3-3) at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (3-3)
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Cincinnati -7.5, Total: 48
Big East foes will both play their second consecutive weeknight game when they tangle in Cincinnati on Friday night. South Florida lost 20-6 at West Virginia last Thursday while the Bearcats notched a 35-27 road win at Louisville behind five touchdown passes from Zach Collaros. Cincinnati has scored 109 points in its past three games, all ATS wins.
On the flip side, South Florida has just 15 total points in its past two games and has been outscored 71 to 29 by its three BCS opponents (Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia). The biggest problem is the USF passing offense that has averaged a mere 157 YPG this season (107th among FBS schools). B.J. Daniels has had a dreadful sophomore season with four touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Against the three BCS schools, that ratio is even more atrocious: 1 TD/9 INT. However, Daniels could find success through the air on Friday night considering Cincinnati’s pass defense is allowing 257 passing YPG (ranked 103rd in nation).
Cincinnati has been great at home this year, averaging 38.0 PPG in three games. QB Zach Collaros is having an excellent season (17 TD, 3 INT) with a current four-game streak of at least three passing TD. The Bearcats are loaded with offensive talent. RB Isaiah Pead has rushed for an average of 109.4 YPG, which is 17th-best in the nation, and WRs DJ Woods and Armon Binns both place among the top-25 in FBS players in receiving yards per game. Woods (92 rec. YPG) also ranks 17th in the nation in all-purpose yards (117 YPG). Binns (88 rec. YPG) scored twice in a 34-17 win at USF last year and Collaros rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries in that win over the Bulls. Cincinnati also boasts a strong run defense (109 YPG, 21st in nation), but has forced just five turnovers in six games with a minus-6 turnover ratio.
The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) in the past six meetings with the Bulls. This FoxSheets trend also likes Cincinnati on Friday:
Play On - A home team (CINCINNATI) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 1.2+ YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (47-18 since 1992.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*).
The FoxSheets also give two reasons to side with the Under:
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in October games. (34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
Tips and Trends
South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats
BULLS: South Florida stands at 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS overall this season. The Bulls have lost their past 2 games, and are in deep danger of losing a 3rd consecutive game. This South Florida team is really struggling offensively, as they've scored single digits in each of their past 2 games. As a result of their offensive struggles, South Florida has played to the under rather easily in each of the past 4 games. Coach Holtz must be scratching his head, because the talent is most certainly there. QB B.J. Daniels has all the physical tools to be great, but he appears to be struggling with the new system implemented with the coaching change. Daniels has only thrown for 803 YDS this season, and has 10 INT's to only 4 TD's this year. Overall, South Florida is averaging 23.8 PPG, 79th best in the nation. The good news for the Bulls is their defense, as they continue to be a hard hitting, intimidating bunch. The Bulls are only allowing 16.7 PPG, 18th best in the country. Against Cincinnati, this South Florida defense is going to have to play their best game of the season for them to have any chance of pulling the upset on the road. The Bulls are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in October. South Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games overall.
Key Injuries - WR Sterling Griffin (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
BEARCATS: (-7.5, O/U 48) Very quietly, Cincinnati is starting to hit their stride. The Bearcats have won their past 2 games, and prior to that were very close to beating BCS top ranked Oklahoma. Cincinnati has produced 80 PTS over their past 2 contests combined, playing like the team they have grown accustomed to being. QB Zach Collaros might be the best QB you've never heard of, as he is putting up video game type numbers this year. Collaros has thrown for 1,455 YDS this season, along with 19 TD's overall. Collaros has had at least 3 TD's in every game this season save for the season opener. Cincinnati still needs to improve defensively, as they are allowing 21 PPG, 40th in the nation. The Bearcats have yet to lose a home game this season from an ATS standpoint against FBS competition. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in October. Cincinnati is 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win. The Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed favorite.
Bearcats are 9-4 ATS last 13 conference games.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - WR D.J. Woods (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)