Rutgers (4-2, 1-3 ATS) at Army (3-4, 2-5 ATS)
Rutgers plays under the Friday night spotlight for the second straight week, this time hoping for better results as it makes the short trek to West Point for a non-conference clash with Army.
The Scarlet Knights saw a four-game winning streak go by the wayside last Friday night, falling 24-17 to Big East rival Pittsburgh as a six-point home underdog. Rutgers jumped out to a 7-0 lead, then got outscored 24-3 before getting a fourth-quarter TD pass to cap the scoring. The Scarlet Knights got outgained 376-286, including a 223-38 discrepancy in rushing yardage.
Rutgers’ two losses were in Big East play (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh), scoring just 15 and 17 points in those two contests, while the four victories came against lesser foes Howard, Florida International, Maryland and Texas Southern by a combined score of 144-35.
Army failed to capitalize on a thrilling 16-13 overtime victory over Vanderbilt as a 10-point home underdog, losing 27-13 at Temple as a 10½-point underdog Saturday. The Black Knights’ defense was outstanding, yielding just 195 total yards, and Army had a 181-80 rushing edge, but the offense went just 1-for-11 on third downs and produced just 13 first downs to 27 for Temple.
Army has scored between 13 and 19 points in five of its last six games, and its three victories came against Vanderbilt (16-13) as well as Mid-American Conference bottom-feeders Eastern Michigan (27-14) and Ball State (24-17), three teams that are a combined 2-18.
These regional rivals met each of the last two Novembers, with Rutgers rolling both times by scores of 41-6 as a 20-point road chalk in 2007 and 30-3 as an 18-point home favorite last year. The Scarlet Knights have won five straight meetings since 1998 by margins of 12, 44, 15, 35 and 27 points. Rutgers is also 6-0 ATS in the last six series clashes since 1997.
The Scarlet Knights are on ATS runs of 14-6 on the road (5-0 last five), 11-4-2 in non-conference play, 7-0-1 on artificial turf and 10-4 as a double-digit favorite. However, they’re also in ATS slumps of 0-2-1 as a favorite, 2-6 as a road favorite, 0-5-1 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 1-3 after a SU loss. Army is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight October contests, but otherwise is in pointspread ruts of 2-7 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-10 against the Big East, 7-19-1 as a home underdog and 1-8-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
Rutgers carries “under” trends of 3-0 overall, 12-3-1 in October, 3-0 in non-conference action and 3-0 after a SU loss. Similarly, the Black Knights are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 versus Big East opponents and 8-3 on artificial turf. Finally, these teams stayed under the posted price in their last two meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS and UNDER
What Bettors Need to Know: Rutgers at Army
By Lee Kostroski
Friday Knight(s) matchup
The Scarlet Knights have recently dominated the series between these two teams as Rutgers has won nine of the last 11 dating back to 1991 and, more recently, is 4-0 SU having outscored Army 151-30 in their last four meetings dating back to 2002. In the last two years, Rutgers has defeated Army by a combined score of 71-9 while winning the yardage battle 967-371.
Despite the Black Knights struggles against Rutgers, they aren’t a team to be overlooked this year. They’ve already won three games this season and one more would put them at a total they’ve only reached one time since 1997 (2005).
They’ll need an upset Friday night to get it.
Getting defensive
Army has quietly posted great defensive statistics as November approaches. The Black Knights are allowing 285 YPG – 171 pass YPG, 114 rush YPG. Last week, Army allowed just 195 yards to Temple. Temple ran the ball 38 times for a meager 80 yards.
After allowing 47 points in the season opener to Cincinnati, Rutgers is allowing just 12 points per game in its last five games. However, most of that has come against below-average opponents and it did allow 24 points in a loss to Pittsburgh last week.
Young gun
True Freshmen QB Tom Savage has been impressive as a starter for Rutgers. He is completing 57 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and just one interception. This will be his first night road game in what is sure to be a hostile atmosphere at Michie Stadium.
Savage is 4-1 as a starter after supplanting Dominic Natale in the season opener versus Cincinnati. After facing Howard, Florida International, Maryland, and Texas Southern, he finally got a real test against Pittsburgh last week. Pittsburgh completely shutdown Rutgers running attack (20 attempts, 38 yards) and forced Savage to try and win the game. Savage had a decent game but couldn’t lead the Scarlet Knights to victory.
Black Knights running attack
As mentioned above, the Black Knights run the ball an astonishing 80 percent of the time and they do it quite well, averaging 223 yards per game. However, their heavy run attack is mainly a ploy to frustrate the opposing team and it hasn’t given them much overall success on offense this season. They rank 115th in the nation in yards per game and average just 4.4 yards per play and 17 PPG.
Last year against Rutgers they were able to run the football, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and amassing 217 yards, but it didn't translate on the scoreboard as the Cadets lost 30-3.
Rutgers is allowing just 91.5 rushing yards per game, but it did give up 223 to Pittsburgh last week and that allowed the Panthers to control the ball and get the win.
Line Movement
The line opened with the Scarlet Knights as heavy 10-point road favorites and has stayed consistently around 10.
The total opened at 40 and dipped slightly to 39.5.
Trends
Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games but just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite. The Scarlet Knights have had a lot of success against non-conference foes, posting a 12-5-2 ATS record in their last 19 non-conference games. Army is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games as a home underdog and 1-10 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big East. Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Army.
The under is 5-0 in Scarlet Knights’ last five games overall and 13-3-1 in their last 17 games in October. Army has stayed under the total in eight of its last nine home games.
Weather
Game-time temperature is forecasted for beautiful football weather with temperatures in the 60’s with no foul weather.
South Florida Bulls vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
The South Florida Bulls and the Pittsburgh Panthers will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Heinz Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 6½-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
South Florida was defeated 34-17 by Cincinnati last time out, as 2.5-point underdogs. The 51 points made it OVER the posted total of 49.
B.J. Daniels threw for 208 yards with a TD while rushing for another score in that losing effort.
Pittsburgh built up an early lead and went on to defeat Rutgers 24-17 in Week 7. Pittsburgh covered the 6.5-point spread, while the 41 points went UNDER the posted total of 46.
Dion Lewis carried the ball 31 times for 180 yards with two touchdowns in that win for the Panthers.
Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
South Florida: 5-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pittsburgh: 6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
South Florida most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
South Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida's last 6 games on the road
South Florida is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Next up:
South Florida home to West Virginia, Friday, October 30
Pittsburgh home to Syracuse, Saturday, November 7
NCAAF Week 8
Friday's game
Rutgers won last five games vs Army by average score of 37-9; Knights are in Pitt/UConn sandwich- they're 2-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 15-17 in losses to Cincy/Pitt, 23-34 in wins over FIU (23-15), Maryland (34-13). Army lost three of last four games, scoring 16 or less points in all four of the games- they're 2-3 as underdog this year. Rutgers is +14 in turnovers the last five games but Army only turned ball over four times in their last five games. Big East favorites are 6-7 out of conference, 4-3 on the road.
Tips and Trends
Rutgers at Army
Rutgers (-10, O/U 39.5): Rutgers has defeated Army five straight times, beating the Black Knights by a combined margin of 71-9 the past two years. Rutgers has covered the past six times in the series, while going 8-2 in its last 10 meetings against Army. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 351.2 yards and 29.3 points per game. Their defense ranks 30th in the country, giving up 314.8 yards per game. Rutgers is stepping down in class after losing to Pittsburgh, 24-17, as a six-point home ‘dog last Friday night. The danger with Rutgers is laying double-digits on the road with a limited offense directed by freshman quarterback Tom Savage. The Scarlet Knights also are in a Big East Division sandwich, having just played conference rival Pittsburgh rival and with a road game next week against Connecticut. Rutgers is 6-2 against the spread as a non-conference favorite of seven or more points.
The Scarlet Knights are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games.
The Under is 13-3-1 in Rutgers’ last 17 games in October.
Key Injuries - Offensive lineman Caleb Ruch (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25
Army: This may be the Black Knights’ toughest game of the season. The Black Knights are 3-4 and need this win if they’re going to keep alive their forlorn goal of making a bowl game for the first time since 1996 after getting upset 27-13 by Temple on the road last week. The Black Knights were penalized 14 times for more than 100 yards in the loss to Temple. Army’s offense has not scored more than one offensive touchdown in four consecutive games. The one-dimensional Black Knights have the nation’s worst passing attack averaging 66 yards through the air per game. Their offensive line has surrendered 27 sacks. Army’s ground attack averages just 2.3 yards per rush. It’s no wonder the Black Knights rank 117th in the country offensively. Army has covered just once the past 11 times it has faced a Big East opponent.
Army is 0-7 ATS at home versus a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 14 (UNDER - Total of the Day)