West Virginia at UConn: What Bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
Two teams coming off disappointing performances square off when West Virginia (5-2 , 4-3 ATS) takes on UConn (3-4, 3-4ATS) Friday night. The Mountaineers’ lackluster offense finally caught up to them with a 19-14 loss to Syracuse, while the Huskies were shutout by Louisville losing 26-0 last week.
Why West Virginia will cover
In terms of talent, there are too many personnel mismatches in this contest. It starts on the defensive side, with the Mountaineers giving up just 13.3 points per game this season.
Much of that can be attributed to a solid secondary, which held Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib to just 63 yard passing last week. The week prior, USF’s B.J. Daniels threw for 119 yards for no touchdowns and three interceptions.
UConn shows no signs of breaking that trend with a passing attack that ranks 102nd in the nation. And let’s not forget the drama surrounding the quarterback situation. Notre Dame transfer Zach Fraser began the season with much hype as the starter but soon lost his job to Cody Endres. The former backup seemed to inject some life into the team, leading UConn to back-to-back 40-point performances and a decent showing against Rutgers.
But then last week, Cody Endres reportedly failed his third drug test and head coach Randy Edsall kicked him off the team. The suspension had a trickle effect both in terms of talent and chemistry, which no doubt contributed to their poor showing against Louisville.
On the ground, the WVU run defense is allowing less than 100 yards per game. On offense, running back Noel Devine will be looking to raise his draft stock after a couple performances well below his talent level, in part to an injured toe.
Why UConn will cover
After being blown out for the first couple games in this series, UConn nearly pulled off an upset on the road last year, losing by just four points. The Huskies generated 501 yards of offense and actually held the lead at the half in that game. The team was dealing with the tragic stabbing death of CB Jasper Howard at the time, so a little drama at QB is miniscule compared to what the team dealt with last year.
Zach Frazer has a chip on shoulder. He was originally signed with Notre Dame with much hype being rated one of the top QBs in high school. But after seeing himself fourth on Charlie Weis’ depth chart, Frazer transferred to UConn.
This year, he suffered more setbacks losing his job to Endres. Then, in the wake of Endres’ suspension, Randy Edsall opted for freshman Mike Box to start over Frazer. Box is out with a concussion this week, so by default Frazer will start Friday. He has a lot to prove and he certainly has the talent to keep the Huskies in the game.
Line and trends
The line opened up at -7 in favor of WVU and has since seen a half-point move down to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. The Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 in this series and they have covered the spread in all matchups except for last year. But, keep in mind, that WVU has had problems covering against teams with losing records, going 2-6 ATS.
The total sits at 45.5 and cappers looking for past trends will find themselves just data mining to justify their original instinct. The over has hit four out of six times in this series, but WVU has one of the top defenses and is on a two-game under streak. It is 1-5 over/under in its last five Big East games but UConn has hit the over seven times in its last eight conference games.
Perhaps a more telling stat is that in the Edsall-Stewart matchups, the difference between the total and the final score have stayed within a touchdown.
Partly cloudy skies and lows in the 30s are expected by kickoff with northwest winds coming in at 10 to 15 mph.
Tale of the Tape: West Virginia-UConn
Big East rivals battle under the Friday night lights. Here’s a statistical look at how West Virginia and Connecticut matchup.
Offense
The Mountaineers rushing attack has taken a couple steps back in recent weeks. Stud tailback Noel Devine has been slowed with a bum toe, dropping the WVU ground game to second-worst in the Big East, averaging just 143 rushing yards per game. Through the air, the Mountaineers haven’t fared much better, putting up 220 passing yards per outing (fourth in the conference) but posting just 178 yards through the air in last week’s loss to Syracuse.
The Huskies offense is fourth in scoring in the Big East, putting up an average of 28.1 points – two more than WVU. On the ground, UConn is rushing for almost 184 yards on the back of Jordan Todman. However, he’s coming off a rough go against Louisville, rushing for 80 yards on 19 carries and failing to crack the century mark for the first time this season. The Huskies passing game also is up in the air with demoted backup Zach Frazer under center. On the year, Connecticut is passing for only 163 yards an outing – last in the conference.
Edge: West Virginia
Defense
West Virginia is among the top teams in most defensive categories including passing yards allowed, total yards against and points allowed. The Mountaineers are giving up under two touchdowns per game and have clamped down on opposing QBs, allowing 148 yards through the air while picking off eight passes – one less than Connecticut’s secondary. On the ground, WVU is holding foes to 97 yards a contest but watched as Syracuse matched for 183 yards on 38 carries in Week 8.
Connecticut is giving up almost 23 points per game, which ranks second worst in the Big East. The Huskies biggest weakness has been against the run, allowing 151 yards per game and watching opposing rushing attacks find the end zone seven times. Things are better defending the pass, allowing 206 yards per game. The Huskies do have an opportunistic stop unit, topping the conference with nine picks. They’ve forced eight fumbled but has managed to reel in just three of those loose balls.
Edge: West Virginia
Special teams
West Virginia is picking up 9.55 yards per punt which is just below UConn’s mark of 9.58. The Mountaineers are dead last in kick return yardage, averaging only 17.77 yards per attempt. On the other side of the ball, WVU is giving up 10.79 yards per punt and 20.17 yards per kick return – second best in the Big East. The Mountaineers did allow a punt-return TD against LSU on September 25.
The Huskies have found life on kick returns, posting 24.31 yards per return while running back a kick for a TD against Rutgers on October 8. Connecticut is allowing the most punt return yards in the Big East, watching opponents run for 13 yards per punt and allowing Louisville to run back a TD return last week. The Huskies are also last in the conference in kick return yards allowed, watching opposing special teams rumble for 24.41 yards per kickoff.
Edge: West Virginina
Word on the street
"We may run a little bit more in the offense, and (QB) Geno (Smith) is certainly talented. You love to have a running quarterback, which certainly adds to the staple, but we need to run the ball a little bit better and hopefully we can do that. We'll get things worked out and resolved.'' – WVU head coach Bill Stewart (The News And Sentinel)
"We did look slow. Maybe they're that much more athletic. Maybe their athletes made us look bad." - UConn coach Randy Edsall after losing to UL in Week 8 (Hartford Courant)
West Virginia 6-point favorites at UConn
By: Brad Young
The Big East Conference takes center stage Friday night when West Virginia travels to Connecticut. The Mountaineers just dropped out of the top-25 poll after an unexpected home loss, while the Huskies are still searching for their first conference victory.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened West Virginia as a six-point road ‘chalk’ over UConn, with no total posted. ESPN2 will provide coverage of Friday’s Big East battle from Rentschler Field.
West Virginia (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) had won two games in a row SU and four consecutive ATS before Saturday’s setback to Syracuse as a 13 ½-point home favorite, 19-14. The combined 33 points failed to eclipse the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.
There was no scoring in the second half, and the Mountaineers failed to produce any points after a pair of first-quarter touchdowns. West Virginia finished the contest with advantages in first downs (20-12), passing yards (178-63) and time of possession (31:48-28:12). The Mountaineers lost the turnover battle (3-1), and those three interceptions produced nine points for the Orange.
Quarterback Geno Smith was 20-of-37 passing for 178 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. Running back Noel Devine paced the ground game with 24 carries for 122 yards, while wideout Jock Sanders caught three passes for 53 yards.
UConn (3-4 SU and ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing skid after getting blanked by Louisville Saturday as a three-point road underdog, 26-0. The 26 points never seriously threatened the 53-point closing total, ending a string of three consecutive ‘over’ outings.
The Huskies were dominated across the board, trailing the Cardinals in first downs (20-11), rushing yards (160-108), passing yards (195-87), turnovers forced (3-0) and time of possession (37:27-22:33). UConn only surrendered one offensive touchdown, but Louisville also scored on a 74-yard punt return and four field goals.
The Huskies had to use two quarterbacks after starter Michael Box went 4-of-12 passing for 35 yards with an interception before leaving the game with a concussion. Backup signal caller Zach Frazer completed 6-of-8 passes for 52 yards, while running back Jordan Todman ran 19 times for 80 yards.
West Virginia is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the previous six meetings with UConn after prevailing last season as an eight-point home ‘chalk,’ 28-24. The combined 52 points eclipsed the 46 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1 the last five games in this series.
The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS the previous eight games versus a team with a losing record. The Huskies have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 their last eight conference games, and the ‘over’ is 14-3 their past 17 home outings.
West Virginia offensive tackle Nick Kindler is ‘out’ for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. The Mountaineers do not play again until Nov. 13 when they host Cincinnati.
UConn quarterback Michael Box (concussion), fullback Anthony Sherman (leg), safety Kijuan Dabney (head) and linebacker David Kenney (leg) are ‘questionable’ versus the Mountaineers, while running back Robbie Frey (knee) and offensive tackle Jimmy Bennett (hand) are ‘out.’ The Huskies follow this matchup with a Nov. 11 home date with Pittsburgh.
Friday’s forecast for East Hartford, Connecticut calls for mostly sunny skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 56 degrees and a low of 37.
Friday NCAAF Preview
West Virginia won last six games vs UConn, covering five, with only one of the wins by less than 12+ points; they won/covered last three visits here, winning 35-13/37-11/31-19. UConn threw its starting QB off team last week, then got blanked 26-0 at Louisville; they've been outscored in second half of last two games, 23-0. Mountaineers are 1-1 on road, with an OT win at Marshall and 20-14 loss at LSU- they lost to Syracuse at home last week, and have only 3 second half points in last two games. Three of last four UConn games went over the total.
Tips and Trends
West Virginia Mountaineers at UConn Huskies
MOUNTAINEERS: (-6, O/U 45) West Virginia is coming off their worst performance of the season, a 14-19 SU loss at home to Syracuse. The Mountaineers were a double digit favorite in that game, so losing a league contest at home made that loss that much more demoralizing. West Virginia is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS overall this season. West Virginia is 1-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The West Virginia offense is merely average this year, ranking between 60th and 70th in most offensive categories this season. QB Geno Smith is coming off a 3 INT performance, and he will be looking to bounce back strongly. Smith has thrown for more than 1,500 YDS, completing 65% of his passes with 15 TD's this year. Only 1 opponent has scored 20 PTS or more against the Mountaineers in regulation this year. West Virginia is only allowing 13.3 PPG, 6th best in the country. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games overall. West Virginia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Mountaineers are 11-0 ATS last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Under is 4-0 last 4 Friday games.
Key Injuries - OL Nick Kindler (shoulder) is out.
Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
HUSKIES: All 3 of the UCONN wins this year have come at home, where they are a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS. The Hukies are 3-4 both SU and ATS overall this season, a huge disappointment to many. UCONN was expected to challenge for the Big East championship this year. Instead, they are simply trying to get back to .500. The Huskies have lost consecutive games heading into their clash with West Virginia tonight. This Huskies offense is struggling right now, though they must be excited to play in front of their home fans where they've scored 40 PTS or more in each occasion. While UCONN has uncertainty at the QB position, there is no doubting RB Jordan Todman. Todman has rushed for 840 YDS and 8 TD's this season, in leading the 33rd best running game in the nation. The Huskies are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UCONN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as the listed underdog. The Huskies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. UCONN is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Huskies are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played in October. UCONN is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Huskies are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a home underdog.
Over is 11-3 last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Key Injuries - LB David Kenney (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
West Va. at UConn
By Brian Edwards
After dodging a terrible loss to Marshall earlier this season, West Virginia (5-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) couldn’t avoid a similar result last Saturday at home against Syracuse. The Orange went into Morgantown and captured a stunning 19-14 win as a 13 ½-point underdog.
Bill Stewart’s team took a 14-10 lead over the ‘Cuse late in the first quarter, only to get outscored 9-0 the rest of the way. WVU sophomore quarterback played the worst game of his career to date, throwing three costly interceptions.
Six days later, the Mountaineers hit the road with a chance to right the shiop and bolster their position in the wide-open Big East race. They’ll square off against Connecticut (3-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) tonight in Storrs.
As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had West Va. listed as a six-point road favorite with a total of 45. Bettors can back UConn to win outright for a plus-200 payout (risk $100 to win $200).
During Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, Sportsbook.com’s Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry said that the offshore website opened WVU at seven with a total of 46. They had adjusted the number to 6 ½ based on 78-percent of their players backing the home underdog.
Randy Edsall’s team has been of the nation’s biggest disappointments to date. The Huskies have dropped back-to-back games to open their conference slate, including an embarrassing 26-0 loss at Louisville last week.
The Cardinals dealt out cream-cheese treatment and took the cash as three-point home favorites. They dominated UConn in all three phases of the game, limiting it to 195 yards of total offense.
Edsall was forced to dismiss starting QB Cody Endres from the program for drug use before the trip to Louisville. Endres had taken over for the ineffective senior Zach Fraser, so Edsall turned to freshman Mike Box last week. But Box sustained a concussion against the Cardinals and now the Notre Dame transfer is back under center.
Fraser, who has 13 career starts under his belt, has completed 53.5 percent of his passes this year for 605 yards with a 2/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The senior doesn’t have to be a world-beater in UConn’s offense, but he does have to manage the game and not commit turnovers.
Edsall wants to pound the rock with workhorse RB Jordan Todman, who went for 1,188 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns last season. This year Todman has rushed for 841 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
Not all is lost for UConn yet this year. For starters, it is still in the mix of the Big East it can start producing some victories. Also, the Huskies haven’t tasted a defeat at home this year. They are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with wins over Texas Southern (62-3), Buffalo (45-21) and Vanderbilt (40-21).
West Va. is 1-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The ‘Neers rallied from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to force overtime and eventually win a 24-21 decisoin at Marshall in their first road game in Week 2. They failed to cover the spread, however, as 12-point ‘chalk.’ In Week 4, LSU held off WVU for a 20-14 home win in Baton Rouge, but Stewart’s bunch hooked up its backers as a 9 ½-point ‘dog.
Before last week’s three-pick debacle, Smith had been brilliant as WVU’s new starting signal caller. He still maintains impressive stats with a 15/5 TD-INT ratio. Smith also has two veteran weapons in the versatile Noel Devine and WR Jock Sanders.
Devine has been slowed up somewhat since suffering a toe injury at LSU. Stewart told the Associate Press this week, “He's not 100 percent, but he's very, very close. He's been uncharacteristically tackled in the open field, and I emphasize uncharacteristically. He's such a shifty little guy and he's had trouble pivoting."
Nevertheless, Devine rushed for 122 yards last week against the ‘Cuse. For the year, he has 626 yards and four touchdowns on 127 carries for a 4.9 YPC average. Devine also has 22 receptions for 129 yards and one TD. Sanders has a team-high 39 catches for 370 yards and three TDs.
WVU has won all six head-to-head meetings against UConn, including last year’s 28-24 win in Morgantown. However, the Huskies covered the number as eight-point road underdogs. But the Mountaineers have taken the money in five of the six encounters between these Big East adversaries, including a 35-13 win in their last trip to Storrs in 2008.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for WVU, 2-0 in its road assignments. As for UConn, it has watched the ‘over’ go 3-3 overall, 2-0 in its home games.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Four Big East teams have 1-1 records in league play, while Pitt is atop the standings with a 2-0 ledger. UConn is in the basement with a 0-2 mark, while Syracuse is 2-1 and USF is 1-1.
According to Perry, Sportsbook.com currently has Auburn QB Cam Newton listed as the minus-200 favorite (risk $200 to win $100) to win the Heisman Trophy. Newton was plus-300 going into last week's win over LSU and was at plus-800 (risk $100 to win $800) before his dominant performance in a win over Arkansas two weeks ago. Boise State QB Kellen Moore and Oregon RB LaMichael James have the second-shortest odds at 7/2 (+350, risk $100 to win $350). "It's basically a three-horse race from here on out," said Perry.
I say Ole Miss upsets Auburn as a seven-point home underdog Saturday in Oxford. You can get the Rebels on the money line for a plus-250 payout (risk $100 to win $250).
Florida is an underdog against Georgia for the first time since Ron Zook’s last season in Gainesville (2004). Most spots have Mark Richt’s team installed as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk.’ UF has won 17 of the last 20 head-to-head meetings against UGA.
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