West Virginia a fidgety Friday night favorite
By Doug Upstone
Before the season, the Big East Conference figured to be one of the most competitive in the country and that is holding true heading into the last weekend of October. West Virginia, as expected has held up well with 6-1 record (2-4 ATS). Like all teams, the Mountaineers have had to deal with adversity. Six turnovers cost them a win at Auburn and quarterback Jarrett Brown suffered a mild concussion on West Virginia's fourth offensive play and left the game against in-state rival Marshall, which meant true freshman backup Geno Smith had to step in and guide team to 24-7 win.
As the Mountaineers have distanced themselves from the option offense, receivers like Jock Sanders have seen more throws. Running back Noel Devine might not be seeing as many chances to get wide; however the running lanes are still there for the speedy back, as the Mountaineers are second in the conference in total offense at 420.9 yards per game. West Virginia's run defense is one of the best (10th overall) in allowing 2.8 yards per carry. The 'Teers are 12-3 and 11-4 ATS on the Big East road the last five years.
Under coach Bill Stewart wins are likely, however spread covers not so much. The always smiling Stewart is 16-5 SU with 7-12 ATS record.
This is the last of brutish three-game stretch for South Florida (5-2, 2-3 ATS), after taking on conference partner's Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and losing to each of them. The Bulls have been running the ball effectively (177.7 yards per game) on a couple of fronts, with quarterback B.J. Daniels scampering on predetermined and not so predetermined runs. The normal aspect of the running game has worked with a trio of running backs all displaying different skills.
One conundrum South Florida has to change if they want to really be a true Big East contender, quit taking all the penalties (over nine per game). Against lesser competition they have the talent to overcome them. But when looking in the mirror talent-wise, this is real shortcoming for team that is 3-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
South Florida is known for having talented defensive linemen like George Selvie, yet has allowed over 175 yards rushing in four of seven games, suggesting a lack of discipline up front and linebackers not able to stay free and make tackles. After Pittsburgh pasted them for 214 yards on the ground in 41-14 thumping, the Bulls are 1-4 ATS after permitting 200 or more yards rushing.
Betonline.com has West Virginia as three-point road favorite, with total of 47.5. South Florida is 3-1 ATS vs. West Virginia with outright upsets in 2006-07. To forecast the Mountaineers performance, a Magic 8 ball comes in handy. Does the West Virginia team with 19-7 ATS record in October road games show up or the one that is 1-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better make appearance.
ESPN2 will have this Big East battle and watch the total, with average score 35 combined points in the four meetings.
West Virginia at South Florida
By Brian Edwards
The Big East takes center stage in college football Friday night when South Florida plays host to West Virginia in Tampa. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened WVU as a three-point favorite with a total of 48. As of early this morning, most books had the Mountaineers favored by three with the total in the 47-48 range. Bettors can take USF on the money line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
West Virginia (6-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) has won four in a row since suffering its lone loss of the year by a 41-30 count at Auburn back in Week 3. However, the ‘Neers are 1-3 ATS in those four victories.
Once again, they failed to take the cash in last week’s 28-24 home win over UConn as eight-point home favorites. In fact, Bill Stewart’s squad needed Noel Devine’s 56-yard touchdown dash with 2:10 left to emerge with the outright victory.
Devine enjoyed a monster performance against the Huskies, who were trying to pull the upset in honor of their slain teammate, Jasper Howard. But Devine wouldn’t let it happen, rushing 23 times for 178 yards.
WVU senior QB Jarrett Brown completed 16-of-27 throws for 153 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Brown also had 10 carries for 41 yards, including a five-yard TD run. Tavon Austin returned the opening kickoff of the game 98 yards for a touchdown.
South Florida (5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 5-0 but has been soundly beaten in back-to-back Big East contests. Two Thursdays ago, the Bulls played host to Cincinnati in a battle of undefeated squads. When the dust settled, the Bearcats remained unbeaten thanks to a 34-17 win as two-point road favorites.
Jim Leavitt’s team went down again last week at Pittsburgh, where the Panthers dealt out a 41-14 shellacking as 6 ½-point home favorites. Bill Stull threw for 245 yards and a pair of TDs, while Pitt freshman RB Dion Lewis had 111 rushing yards and one touchdown.
USF’s redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels inherited the starting job when senior Matt Grothe sustained a season-ending knee injury in a 59-0 win over Charleston Southern back on Sep. 19. Daniels got his first start in his hometown of Tallahassee, where he was a star athlete at Lincoln High School and garnered Tallahassee Democrat Player of the Year honors in both football and basketball in 2007.
On Sep. 26, Daniels returned home and led the Bulls to a 17-7 win at Florida State as 14-point road underdogs. Daniels threw for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Seminoles. He also ran for 126 yards on 23 carries.
Daniels followed up that performance by leading USF to a 34-20 win at Syracuse the following week. Bettors backing the Bulls cashed ticket as 7 ½-point road favorites, as Daniels threw for 208 yards and two TDs without an interception.
Since then, however, things have gone south for Daniels and the Bulls. He threw a pair of interceptions in both losses to Cincy and Pitt, as they were outscored by a combined tally of 75-31. For the season, Daniels has a team-high 415 rushing yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He has connected on just 53.1 percent of his passes for 864 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-interception ratio.
Brown had huge shoes to fill in taking over the starting QB job at West Virginia. After all, Pat White is the only QB in NCAA history to lead a school to four consecutive bowl victories. But Brown has risen to the occasion.
Through seven games, he is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,362 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio. Brown is also averaging 4.2 YPC and has a pair of TD runs.
Brown has the luxury of handing off to Devine, one of the country’s most explosive offensive players. Devine is seventh in the nation and second in the Big East in rushing yards with 912. The junior has 10 rushing TDs and is averaging 6.7 YPC.
Brown’s go-to guy in the passing game is junior WR Jock Sanders, who has 53 receptions for 513 yards and two TD catches.
When West Virginia came down to Tampa in 2007, it dominated USF in first downs (21-13) and yardage (437-274). However, the Bulls captured a 21-13 win as seven-point home underdogs. Last year in Morgantown, WVU exacted revenge in a 13-7 triumph, but USF backers were winners catching seven points.
WVU covered the number in its only road favorite spot so far this year, trashing Syracuse 34-13 as a 10-point ‘chalk’ at the Carrier Dome. USF went down in its only home ‘dog situation, the aforementioned loss to Cincy.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for USF, 2-0 in its home games. Regardless of the venue, the Bulls have seen three straight ‘overs.’ The ‘over’ is also 4-2 overall for WVU, 1-1 in its road assignments. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools.
Rain is not expected Friday in Tampa, while temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Since 2002, USF owns a 6-5 spread record as a home underdog.
Idaho failed to cover the number for the first time this season in last week’s 70-45 loss at Nevada as a 16-point road underdog. On the flip side, Illinois did take the cash for the first time in 2009, but the Illini still lost 24-14 at Purdue as a 10 ½-point road underdog. Nevertheless, the Illinois AD has come out strong in support of Ron Zook, who took the school to the Rose Bowl two years ago but has a 10-32 record if you take out the 9-4 campaign of 2007. But seriously, what else is the AD going to say in late October?
Minnesota WR Eric Decker, an All-American candidate, is out for the rest of the regular season with a strained foot suffered in Saturday’s loss at Ohio St. Decker has 50 receptions for 783 yards and five touchdowns. Head coach Tim Brewster is optimistic Decker could return for a potential bowl game if the 4-4 Gophers garner an invite. They have three straight home games looming (vs. Michigan St., Illinois and South Dakota St.) before closing the regular season at Iowa.
Kentucky cornerback Trevard Lindley, one of the nation’s premier cover corners, is expected to miss his fourth straight game this week with an ankle injury. In addition, LB Micah Johnson is "doubtful" for the 4-3 Wildcats, who are set to host Mississippi St. as 3 ½-point home favorites Saturday in Lexington. Johnson has a strained MCL. When UK left spring practice, it felt it had three All-American candidates in Johnson, Lindley and DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was ruled inelgible. None of the three are expected on the field this weekend.
Florida’s non-cover in its 29-19 win at Mississippi St. as a 22-point road ‘chalk’ ended an 8-0 ATS run for the Gators as road favorites. On several radio shows this week, I've been asked, "what's wrong with Florida?" My answer: Nothing. The Gators lead the SEC in scoring offense (35.3 PPG), scoring defense (10.1 PPG), total offense (457 YPG) and total defense (229.6 YPG). They are also unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the country. If that represents "problems," then we should all aspire to have problems.
vegasinsider.com
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. South Florida Bulls
The West Virginia Mountaineers and the South Florida Bulls will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Raymond James Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Mountaineers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total is sitting at 47½.
West Virginia got one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown from Jarrett Brown in a 28-24 win over Connecticut in Week 8.
The Mountaineers failed to cover the 8.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 46.5.
Evan Landi passed for 37 yards, one touchdown and one interception for South Florida in a 41-14 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 8.
The Bulls did not cover the 6-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 48.
Current streak:
West Virginia has won 4 straight games.
South Florida has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
West Virginia: 6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS
South Florida: 5-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
West Virginia most recently:
When playing in October are 10-0
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3
South Florida most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
West Virginia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
West Virginia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 6 games on the road
South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
South Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Next up:
West Virginia home to Louisville, Saturday, November 7
South Florida at Rutgers, Thursday, November 12
What bettors need to know: WVU at South Florida
By Lee Kostroski
The skinny
For the third straight season, South Florida started the season at least 5-0 before suffering a midseason losing streak. The Bulls lost two straight games to ranked Big East opponents and now face a do-or-die situation against WVU before they close their season with a difficult stretch of games.
West Virginia is heading in a completely different direction. After an 11-point loss at Auburn on Sept. 19 (a game in which WVU out-yarded the Tigers 519-400), WVU has won four straight by an average of 13.7 PPG.
The Mountaineers enter this game after an emotional comeback victory over UConn while the Bulls enter it after a 27-point shellacking at the hands of Pittsburgh. Both teams could really use a victory to gain a little credibility in the Big East.
QB problems
After USF Senior QB Matt Grothe was lost for the year with a torn ACL, redshirt freshmen BJ Daniels stepped in and led the Bulls to two straight wins and it looked as if South Florida was going to be alright.
But Daniels has regressed in the last two games, completing just 47 percent of his passes for 131 yards per game and throwing four interceptions and one touchdown.
Daniels was benched in the Bulls’ blowout loss to Cincinnati a week ago and now he faces a West Virginia defense that has allowed just 52 percent completions and forced nine interceptions the past four weeks.
Mountaineer QB Jarrett Brown is also suffering through a cold streak. He was knocked out of the game against Marshall and has thrown for a meager five touchdowns and five interceptions the past five games.
“Devine” Mountaineer
West Virginia running back Noel Devine has had quite an October. He has rushed for 592 yards on a 6.8 YPC average with six total touchdowns with a chance to add to those numbers Friday night. In the second half of last week’s game against UConn, Devine had 14 carries for 171 yards and the game including a winning 56-yard touchdown run.
South Florida has allowed 403 rushing yards in its last two games on a 5.1 YPC average. Last week, Pitt running back Dion Lewis racked up 111 yards and two touchdowns.
They have had good success against WVU however, holding the potent Mountaineer rushing attack to just 153 YPG the past three years.
Line movement
This line opened with West Virginia as a 3-point road favorite. It moved to -3.5 at a few spots, however, the consensus has kept the Mountaineers as field-goal chalk. The total on this game opened at 47.5.
Trends
West Virginia is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.
WVU has finished over the total in five of the last seven games overall and USF is 4-1 over/under in its last five games. The Bulls are also 9-3 over/under in last 12 home games but the last four meetings between these two teams have stayed under.
West Virginia has been favored every time it’s faced the Bulls but it has only covered once since 2005. It’s split 2-2 SU with the average of just 35 total PPG.
Weather
The high in Tampa on Friday will be very hot at close to 90 degrees. By game time it will still be in the 80's with very little chance of any precipitation.
(20) West Virginia (6-1, 2-4 ATS) at South Florida (5-2, 2-3 ATS)
South Florida tries to snap a two-game losing streak when it welcomes the surging Mountaineers to Tampa for a Big East showdown.
West Virginia brings a four-game winning streak into Raymond James Stadium, including a 2-0 mark (1-1 ATS) in Big East action. The Mountaineers rallied to edge UConn 28-24 on Saturday, coming up short as eight-point home favorites. Junior RB Noel Devine, who is averaging 148 rushing yards per game during the four-game winning streak, ran for 178 yards against UConn, including the game-winning 56-yard scamper with 2:10 to play. Devine ranks seventh in the nation in rushing (912 yards) and he’s averaging 6.7 yards per rush with 11 TD runs.
The Bulls have had a tough two-week stretch in conference action, facing unbeaten Cincinnati two weeks ago in Florida and losing 34-17 as one-point underdogs, followed by Saturday’s 41-14 loss at one-loss Pitt as a 6½-point underdog. South Florida’s defense has allowed 403 rushing yards the last two weeks, and now must contend with Devine.
Last time the Mountaineers were in Tampa, they dropped a 21-13 decision as seven-point favorites in 2007 as the No. 5 team in the country. They did exact some revenge last year, winning 13-7 but failing to cash as a seven-point chalk as South Florida had a 326-280 edge in total offense. The teams have split their four meetings since 2005, with the Bulls going 3-1 ATS (all as an underdog).
West Virginia averages 31.3 points and 421 total yards per game (191.7 rushing ypg), and it has scored between 24 and 35 points in every game this year. South Florida is putting up 31 points and 379.4 ypg (177.7 rushing ypg), but in their three ACC contests, the Bulls have scored 17, 17 and 14 points while averaging 318.7 ypg.
The Mountaineers are on ATS slides of 6-12 overall (1-4 last five), 1-7 against teams with a winning record, 2-6 as a favorite, 3-7 in Big East action and 2-5 in October. Meanwhile, South Florida is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 at home, but just 1-4 ATS in its last five in October and 3-11 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record.
West Virginia has stayed below the total in four of its last five Friday games, but it is also on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-3 after a SU win and 4-1 against opponents with a winning record. The Bulls have stayed below the total in 10 of 14 as an underdog and six of eight against winning teams, but the “over” is 9-3 in their last 12 at home and 5-2 in their last seven after a non-cover. Finally, the “under” has been the play in each of the four series clashes between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tips and Trends
West Virginia at South Florida
West Virginia (-3, O/U 47.5): Spearheaded by tailback Noel Devine, 20th-ranked West Virginia has won four in a row. Devine is averaging 148 yards rushing during the winning streak. The junior ranks seventh nationally in rushing. The Mountaineers got past Connecticut last week, 28-24, when Devine broke off a 56-yard touchdown run with 2:10 left. West Virginia’s strengths are its ninth-ranked run defense and the dangerous Devin. South Florida defeated then fifth-ranked West Virginia when the teams last met in Tampa two years ago, 21-13. The Mountaineers have averaged only 15 points versus South Florida in their last three meetings, while losing two of three. West Virginia beat the Bulls, 13-7, at home last season although being out-gained, 326-280. West Virginia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 Big East Conference games. The Mountaineers also haven’t covered during six of the last eight times they’ve been chalk.
The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
The Under has cashed the past 4 times these teams have played each other.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Reed Williams (shoulder) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25
South Florida: The Bulls have failed to step up against top caliber Big East competition in their last two games. South Florida gave up 189 rushing yards in a 34-17 home loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago. The Bulls allowed 214 yards on the ground to Pittsburgh in a 41-14 road defeat last week. All-American defensive end George Selvie only had one tackle in the loss. South Florida was hurt by penalties and freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels throwing two interceptions against the Panthers. Daniels is replacing injured senior quarterback Matt Grothe. The Bulls have held ground-oriented West Virginia to 153 yards per game the last three years. South Florida has won 21 of 27 home games since 2005. The Bulls have covered 13 of their last 19 home contests. The Bulls, though, have failed to cover 11 of the last 14 times they’ve met a team with a winning record.
The Over has cashed in 9 of South Florida’s last 12 home games.
The Under is 6-2 in the Bulls’ last eight games versus a team with a winning mark.
Key Injuries - Quarterback Matt Grothe (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
W VIRGINIA (6 - 1) at S FLORIDA (5 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA at S FLORIDA
W VIRGINIA: 2-8 ATS off conference win
S FLORIDA: 6-1 ATS after scoring 17pts or less BB games
WEST VIRGINIA vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
South Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games