Game of the day: Louisiana Tech at Nevada
By Lee Kostroski
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-10.5, 58)
Momentum shift
Nevada started the season 0-3 with losses against Notre Dame, Colorado State and Missouri. The Wolf Pack were outscored 101-41 and 2008 WAC Offensive player of the year QB Colin Kaepernick got off to a very slow start. Kaepernick had just two passing touchdowns and four picks while running for just 122 total yards (22 passing TD, 17 TD in 2008).
They looked like a team that hadn’t improved on a promising 2008 season. But that all changed against UNLV last week.
Nevada broke loose in a big way. The Wolf Pack scored 63 points and accumulated 773 total yards. They finally got their running attack going, rushing for 553 yards and 7 touchdowns. Kaepernick was 15-for-18 passing for 208 yards and a touchdown and also ran for 173 yards.
Road woes
Louisiana Tech started off the season 0-2 after two tough road games at Auburn and at Navy. It was outscored 27-69 and gave up 591 total rushing yards in those two games. Quarterback Ross Jenkins was just 36-for-62 for 305 yards with one TD and two picks and they rushed for just 107 total yards.
The Bulldogs returned home for their next two games and looked like a completely different team. They defeated FCS Nicholls State and Hawaii by a combined score of 75-19. They gained 1007 total yards – rushing for 537 yards – and Jenkins was much more efficient, completing 34-for-52 passes for 454 yards with two touchdowns and no picks.
Ground game
Nevada ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 274 per game. Luke Lippincott (336 rush yards, 1 TD), Colin Kaepernick (295, 1), Vai Taua (208, 2), and Mike Ball (184, 5) are all capable of putting up big numbers on the ground.
Auburn and Navy were able to bottle up La Tech’s rushing attack, but they are still averaging 161 YPG. First-team All-WAC RB Daniel Porter has rushed for 294 yards and four scores this season.
In the 2008 matchup between these two, La Tech ran for 185 yards and allowed just 103 yards rushing on 2.5 YPC to the Wolf Pack. La Tech had a comfortable 31-14 late in the 3rd quarter but that changed quickly. The Dogs eventually fell behind when they allowed a big 22-yard TD run with 3:15 left in the fourth quarter that allowed Nevada to complete the comeback and win 35-31.
The team that establishes a running attack will have a good shot at getting the ATS cover.
Trends
Nevada has won four straight vs. La Tech and is 3-1 ATS at home vs. the Bulldogs. Nevada is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games and 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite. La Tech is just 14-37-1 ATS in its last 52 road games and 16-36-1 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog. The over/under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack.
Line movements
The line opened with Nevada as a 7.5-point favorite. That line increased daily and now sits at 10.5. The total opened at 58.5 and slid slightly to 57.5 and now sits right in the middle at 58.
Weather
The forecast is calling for clear skies with game time temperature around 70 degrees. Light winds with temps dropping to around 60 degrees by the time this one wraps up.
Louisiana Tech (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Nevada (1-3 SU and ATS)
Louisiana Tech goes after its third straight win overall and its second consecutive Western Athletic Conference victory when it travels to Mackey Stadium in Reno to take on the Wolf Pack, who finally kickoff their WAC season.
After getting destroyed on the road at Auburn (37-13) and Navy (32-14), the Bulldogs came home and got healthy with dominating wins over Division I-AA Nicholls State (48-13 in a non-lined contest) and Hawaii 27-6 as a six-point favorite). In last Friday’s victory over Hawaii, Louisiana Tech piled up 449 total yards, including 352 on the ground (6.2 per carry) while holding the explosive Warriors to 301 yards, including minus-7 rushing yards.
Nevada opened the season with three straight blowout losses and non-covers to Notre Dame (35-0 on the road), Colorado State (35-20 on the road) and Missouri (31-21 at home), but the Wolf Pack did the pounding on Saturday, crushing instate rival UNLV 63-28. Nevada outgained the Rebels 773-346 (559-70 on the ground) and won by 35 points despite committing four turnovers and 15 penalties (for 169 yards). Mike Ball rushed for 184 yards and five TDs, while QB Colin Kaepernick finally had his breakout game with 208 passing yards and a touchdown, as well as 173 rushing yards.
The Wolf Pack have won four straight meetings in this series (3-1 ATS). However, after three straight double-digit romps, Nevada had to work hard for last year’s 35-31 victory at La-Tech, falling just short as a 4½-point road chalk. In the Bulldogs’ last trip to Reno, they got pummeled 49-10 as a seven-point road ‘dog, as they were outgained 641-228. The home team and the favorite are both 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference contests, but otherwise the Bulldogs are in ATS funks of 14-37-1 on the highway (1-8-1 last 10 as a visitor), 13-28 as an underdog, 16-36-1 as a road pup, 7-19 when catching more than 10 points, 3-10 as a road pup in WAC games, 4-9 in October and 1-4 against teams with a losing record.
Nevada has cashed in 22 of its last 31 at Mackay Stadium, including 20 of 27 as a home chalk, and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 when laying more than 10 points and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite in conference games. However, the Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover.
The over is 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven WAC contests, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 7-2 on the highway, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 7-1 as a road pup. Nevada carries “over” trends of 4-1 in WAC action, 4-1 as a favorite, 5-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these schools (3-1 in the last four at Nevada).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA and OVER
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the Nevada Wolf Pack will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Mackay Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Wolf Pack listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Bulldogs, while the game's total is sitting at 58½.
Louisiana Tech shut down Hawaii in the second half and claimed a 27-6 victory last time out.
Louisiana Tech covered the 6-point spread, while the 33 points went UNDER the posted total of 57.
Nevada got a 63-28 win over UNLV at Mackay Stadium last time out.
Nevada covered as a 6.5-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 58-point total.
Current streak:
Louisiana Tech has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Louisiana Tech: 2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Nevada: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
Louisiana Tech most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
Nevada most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana Tech's last 8 games when playing Nevada
Louisiana Tech is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Louisiana Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nevada
Nevada is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana Tech
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nevada's last 8 games when playing Louisiana Tech
Nevada is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
Nevada is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Louisiana Tech home to New Mexico State, Saturday, October 17
Nevada at Utah State, Saturday, October 17
Tips and Trends
Louisiana Tech at Nevada
Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech has won its last two games, but there has been heavy line movement against the Bulldogs. The line has gone from Nevada minus 7 ½ to as high as minus 11. Louisiana Tech looked good in its last game, beating Hawaii 27-6 at home last Wednesday rushing for 352 yards. The Bulldogs, though, are 14-37-1 against the spread in their last 52 road games. They have lost the past four times to Nevada by four, 39, 42 and 10 points. The Bulldogs lost 49-10 in their last visit to Reno two years ago. The Bulldogs have just three touchdown passing in their past four games. Houston Tuminello is the only wide receiver to catch a touchdown pass and he quit the team on Tuesday. Daniel Porter does give Louisiana Tech a good running threat and Phillip Livas could be the Western Athletic Conference’s most dangerous punt returner.
The Under is 7-1 in the Bulldogs’ last eight games as a road ‘dog.
Louisiana Tech is 5-24 ATS the past 29 times it has been a road ‘dog.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Houston Tuminello quit the team.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)
Nevada (-10.5, O/U 58): After opening the season with three straight defeats, Nevada may gave gotten it swagger back with a crushing 63-38 home win last Saturday against UNLV. The Wolf Pack rushed for a school-record 559 yards. Auburn and Navy put up 301 and 290 rushing yards, respectively, against Louisiana Tech earlier this season. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has started slow, but is the reigning WAC Offensive Player of the Year. He threw for 397 yards last year against Louisiana Tech. Turnovers have really hurt the Wolf Pack this season. Nevada has a negative 12 turnover ratio. Nevada has been at its best under Chris Ault as a home favorite covering 16 of the past 19 times in that role. The Wolf Pack are 12-2 the last 14 times they’ve laid five points or more at Mackay Stadium. Nevada is 22-9 against the number in its last 31 home contests.
The Over is 6-2 the past eight times these two teams have met.
The Wolf Pack is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Key Injuries - Running back Vai Taua (elbow) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34