What Bettors Need to Know: Friday College Football Action
By Nick Parsons
We got a mixed bag on Friday night, with one game featuring two of the worst teams in college football and the other with national title implications.
Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-3, 47)
Why Ball State covers
Beating 0-10 Akron doesn’t prove much, but the Cardinals’ come from behind overtime win might just give them enough confidence against another MAC cellar dweller. The game had a bit of a dramatic ending as well with TE David Schneider catching the winning TD. The freshman ranked at the bottom of the depth chart and was pretty much the last option for that game-winning play.
The statistics are ugly with both of these two teams - they rank in the bottom of nearly every category, so the key here for Ball State backers is momentum and attitude.
Buffalo goes into the contest on a four-game losing streak and has pretty much given up on the season, while Ball State got a jolt of confidence last week from an unlikely source.
Why Buffalo covers
Injuries. Ball State is one of the few teams in college football that hasn’t had a bye week yet and the schedule is taking its toll. It doesn’t help either that it is a short week for the Cardinals or that they had a double OT game.
"These guys are tired," Ball State head coach Parrish said. "We've had no open date. Most everybody's had an open date. We've been playing football since early August. At certain positions we've been wiped out."
Also home field advantage is huge in games of this nature with both teams on equal setting in terms of talent.
Notes on the Total
The over has hit in each of the two sides’ five matchups and this is the lowest total (46.5) in series history. Popular opinion is slightly in favor of the over, even though the line has moved from down 47.
Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals (+34.5, 63)
Why Boise State covers
Guess who the odd man out is in the national title picture again? With no playoff and no decent team left on the schedule, Boise’s last resort is to blow out the four remaining teams on its schedule. As much as people joke about it, it would be short sided to think that voters or the players themselves aren’t aware of the spread.
The Broncos look to come out strong against their instate rivals and the second ranked offense in points scored per game should have no problem putting up points against a defense that ranks 101st in the nation. Don't forget either that Idaho has given up 108 points in its last two games.
Why Idaho covers
The Broncos do not enjoy playing in the claustrophobia-inducing Kibbie Dome. Boise State president Bob Kustra even referred to the culture in Moscow, Idaho as "nasty" and "inebriated".
And while the Vandals have not beaten the Broncos since 1998, they have done well against the spread at home covering at the Kibbie Dome in their last two meetings.
Idaho looks to balance out the offense a bit more and this will work in backers favor as it has proved more effective in the past. In their blowout losses to Hawaii and Nevada, the Vandals had a 52 to 20 and a 41 to 19 pass/rush ratio.
Earlier in the year when they covered against Nebraska the rush to pass ratio was 39 to 38. More emphasis on the run should also take more time of the clock.
Notes on the Total
A couple books opened the total up at 61.5 but it has settled at 63.5 now at most places. The over has hit four times in the last five meetings in this contest.
Tale of the tape: Boise State at Idaho
The Boise State Broncos are hoping to be a BCS buster and play for a national championship. Idaho? They are just trying to beat their fiercest rivals for the first time since 1998.
Offense:
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is the forgotten man in the Heisman Race. The junior passer has thrown for 2,372 yards with 21 touchdowns against just four interceptions and is completing 71.8 percent of his attempts. In his most recent start, a 42-7 win over upstart Hawaii, Moore completed 30-of-37 passes for a career-high 507 yards with three touchdowns.
But the Broncos also have a running game. Tailback Jeremy Avery has 313 yards and nine touchdowns on just 55 carries and is emerging as a leader in a split-backfield situation. Overall, the Broncos average 47 points per game, the second-most in the country.
Idaho also has a pretty stout offense. The unit averages a mediocre 28.7 points per game – 55th nationally – but has one of the better passing games in the country. The Vandals average 328.3 passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the country, and overall 414 yards per game, the 39th best average in the nation.
The team’s offense is led by senior quarterback Nathan Enderle, who is completing just 56.9 percent of his passes, but has thrown for 2,484 yards with 17 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.
Edge: Broncos
Defense:
The Broncos have a surprisingly strong stop unit, giving up the second fewest total yards (231.4), rushing yards (71.6) and points (12.6) per game. The team also has a superior pass defense, touting the ninth-ranked secondary in the country as the group is giving up an average of just 159.8 aerial yards per game. In the team’s most recent game, a 42-7 win over Hawaii, it held the Warriors’ top-ranked passing attack to just 151 yards.
The Idaho defense, however, is a tire fire. The team’s defense is giving up a staggering 435.1 total yards per game –the 101st ranked unit nationally – and was gashed for a staggering 844 yards by Nevada last week in a 63-17 loss. Overall, the Vandals gave up 453 rush yards on 57 carries for an average of 7.9 yards per attempt.
Edge: Broncos
Special teams:
Boise State is fourth nationally in blocked kicks when as it snuffed a pair of attempts earlier this year. The Broncos have a solid special teams core, led by kicker Kyle Brotzman, who is 9-of-11 on field goals and has made 34-of-36 PATs. The team also typically puts itself in strong field position, averaging almost 22.55 yards per return.
Idaho’s kicking situation is a bit more shaky. Sophomore Trey Farquhar has made 14 field goals, but it took him 20 attempts to reach the mark. However, he has converted 30-of-31 PATs and has a long of 50-yards this season. The team also is incredibly good at punting, averaging 44.61 yards per attempt, the 17th-best average in the country.
Edge: Broncos
From the files of the beat reporters:
"I wouldn’t expect anything different coming from the blue and orange snot. I just took it and use it as fuel in the fire and feed my hunger to want to get after these guys to finish my career off with a win against them and bring pride back to this community, the University of Idaho and Moscow.” – Idaho running back Deonte Jackson on inflammatory comments made by Boise State president Bob Kustra about Idaho fans.
“I think all of our guys would be fine. I just think it was a real good break in this whole process. In fact, when I told them (Sunday) everybody in the meeting was big smiles. There’s been a lot of scrutiny on these guys for quite a few weeks. Just for us to focus on football is something we need to do.” – Boise State coach Chris Peterson, who made his players off-limits to media this week.
Final score prediction:
Boise State 51, Idaho 21
Tips and Trends
Ball St. Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls
CARDINALS: Ball St. will be looking to win consecutive games for the 1st time this year. The Cardinals are 3-7 both SU and ATS overall this season. Ball St. is 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with today being the 1st time this year they will be a single digit underdog. The Cardinals have one of the worst passing games in the country, so they depend on their ground game. RB MiQuale Lewis will be counted on tonight to move put the ball in the endzone. The Cardinals are averaging just 22.3 PPG, 92nd in the nation. Ball St. has given up at least 30 PTS in each of their past 5 games. Ball St. was embarrassed last season at home, losing in blowout fashion to Buffalo. The Cardinals are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games. Ball St. is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games played in November. The Cardinals are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS loss. Ball St. is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Cardinals are 20-7 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 8-2-1 last 11 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - LB Tony Martin (neck) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
BULLS: (-3, O/U 46.5) Buffalo has had a season to forget, but there is reason for optimism. The Bulls play 2 of their final 3 games of the season at home. Buffalo only has 1 win this season against FBS opposition, and are 2-7 both SU and ATS this year. The Bulls have had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game they've played this season. Buffalo can win this game tonight if they are able to muster up some offense. The Bulls have been held to 17 PTS or fewer in each of their last 4 games. Only 1 skill player has more than 500 YDS this year, and that's WR Marcus Rivers. Rivers has 43 receptions for 603 YDS with 4 TD's this year. Defensively, the Bulls are allowing 30.1 PPG, 88th best in the nation. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulls are 1-7 ATS last 8 games as a home favorite.
Over is 7-3 last 10 conference games.
Key Injuries - DL Terry Peden (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Boise St. Broncos at Idaho Vandals
BRONCOS: (-34.5, O/U 63.5) Boise St. keeps winning in blowout fashion, yet they aren't climbing in the national polls. Everyone has an opinion on this Boise St. team, and that's what makes this such a compelling team. The Broncos have the opportunity to play in a primetime, standalone setting tonight. Boise St. is 2nd in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense respectively. The Broncos are averaging 47 PPG this year, while allowing just 12.6 PPG. QB Kellen Moore is a candidate for the Heisman Trophy this year, as he's thrown for 2,372 YDS and 21 TD's this year, while completing nearly 72% of his passes. Moore leads a balanced offense that is ranked in the top 15 both the rushing and passing game. Only 3 teams have scored more than 14 PTS against the Broncos this season. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 10.5 PTS or more. Boise St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Broncos are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Boise St. is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Broncos are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.
Broncos are 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-0 last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Key Injuries - WR Mitch Burroughs (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 45
VANDALS: Idaho isn't playing very well as they enter their biggest game of the season. The Vandals get to take on their interstate big brother tonight in front of their home fans. Idaho is just 4-5 SU this year, and are coming off consecutive blowout losses. The Vandals are 4-5 both SU and ATS overall this year. Idaho has 2 home games remaining, with tonight's contest the showcase game of the season. QB Nathan Enderle is about to finish his career, and he has an NFL future. Enderle has thrown for more than 2,500 YDS this year, including 17 TD's. Enderle leads a passing offense that ranks 4th in the nation, averaging 330.8 YPG. As great as their offense is, they have the 5th worst rushing attack in the nation. In order for Idaho to keep this game close, they will have to improve quickly on defense. In their past 2 games combined, Idaho has allowed their opponents to score 108 PTS. The Vandals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Idaho is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. The Vandals are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss. Idaho is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Vandals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in November.
Vandals are 8-24 ATS last 32 conference games.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 PTS or more.
Key Injuries - WR Daniel Hardy (arm) is out.
Projected Score: 17 (SIDE of the Day)
Friday Preview
Ball State won four of its last five games vs Buffalo; State won last two visits here, 55-25/44-35; favorites covered three of last four series games. Bulls lost four in row, seven of last eight games; they were outscored 63-7 in first half of last three games. Cardinals are 2-7 in last nine games- they beat winless Akron in OT of last game. Last six Ball State games all went over the total.
Boise State won its last 11 games vs Idaho, winning last six by average score of 57-20; with BCS polls looking like Broncos will get left outside national title picture, they have to win big. Boise won last five games by average score of 51-8 (4-1 vs spread)- they won road games 51-6, 59-0 and 48-0. Idaho lost last two games 45-10/63-17 and this is bitter rivalry, so this could get ugly.
CFB Betting Preview: Boise State at Idaho
By Jeff Mattingly
Boise State is ranked No. 4 in both the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches’ Poll and will travel north to face in-state rival Idaho in front of a national audience on Friday night. The Broncos have won each of their first eight games of 2010, including each of the team’s four games away from Bronco Stadium. The school piled up a school-record 732 total yards in last Saturday’s home win over Hawaii and will undoubtedly capture its 12th straight Governor’s Cup in tonight’s contest. “It was a complete team effort,” said head coach Chris Petersen. “All three phases were good.” Boise State is currently the only team in the country ranked in the top five in both total offense (543.50) and total defense (231.38). The Broncos also rank second-nationally in both scoring offense (47.00) and scoring defense (12.63). The team is 12-2 ATS on the road.
The Broncos will be playing its 40th non-Saturday game in school history tonight, posting a 33-6 all-time record in those games, including a 31-2 mark in the regular season. The high-powered offense has a good chance of making it a comfortable margin of victory against the Vandals, considering they’ve averaged 57.2 points in the last six meetings against them. In fact, Idaho surrendered 844 yards in last week’s 63-17 loss to Nevada. Defensively, Boise State has allowed just 15 red zone opportunities thus far in 2010.
Idaho simply had no chance last week versus Nevada due to being out-gained by a 225-2 margin in the first quarter and trailing 28-3 at halftime. “We didn’t execute,” senior quarterback Nathan Enderle stated. “You can’t do that agains a good team.” The Vandals are 4-5 overall and 1-3 in the Western Athletic Conference and will be facing their second top 10 team of the season (Nebraska). Friday’s game marks the only back-to-back home games for the team in 2010, as they played four of five games on the road and playing in five time zones leading into last week’s demoralizing loss. Idaho is 10-24 ATS in November.
The Vandals are going to need turnovers to remain competitive in this contest and grab cash for backers, which bring a very important statistic to the table. Idaho is tied with North Carolina State for the national lead in fumble recoveries with 14 in nine games. Idaho also ranks among the top schools in the nation in the following categories: passing offense (4th), red zone defense (13th) and third-down conversion defense (24th). None of it may matter against a quality opponent like Boise, as they’ve been outscored by an average of 31.9 points in losing all 16 games to Top 25 opponents since 1996.
Bettors are likely backing Boise State in this contest due to their 16-5 ATS mark on the road, while the Vandals are a solid 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Boise State looks to increase BCS odds
By: Adam Markowitz
The Boise State Broncos have to feel like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place as they head into Friday's matchup with the Idaho Vandals at the Kibbie Dome. They're sitting at No. 4 in the current BCS Rankings and are so far behind the Oregon Ducks, Auburn Tigers and TCU Horned Frogs that they really don't stand a chance of catching any of the three without those teams losing.
To make matters worse, all of the one-loss teams behind Boise State, including the LSU Tigers, Wisconsin Badgers, Stanford Cardinal and Ohio State Buckeyes, have a great chance of surpassing the Broncos as well.
That said, stranger things have happened than to see a whole bunch of Top 10 teams lose in the final few weekends of the year, and a spot in a BCS bowl game would still be a fantastic consolation prize even if mayhem didn't break out. Boise State can only control itself and has to really take care of business in Moscow in the nationally televised NCAA football betting clash.
The Vandals were doing a great job this year at home...until the Nevada Wolf Pack came to town last week. It's not the 63 points that is so concerning, but the fact that Idaho allowed a whopping 844 yards of offense. It was easily the most yards put up against anyone in the country, including FCS teams.
Despite the embarrassing loss, Idaho still has a chance at a bowl game, even if this week's game is lost. However, a victory of this type of mammoth proportion would send shockwaves throughout the college football world to the point that someone would have to put the Vandals in a bowl assuming that they found a way to win the minimum six FBS games.
The man charged with the job of getting past the stout Boise State defense is QB Nathan Enderle. The senior has had a great career in Moscow and is putting together a fine final season as well. Enderle has completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 2,484 yards with 17 scores against 12 picks, and he is leading the nation's No. 4 ranked passing attack.
However, when push comes to shove, Boise State is probably going to come out of the blocks firing on all cylinders in search of yet another dominating victory. The Broncos really haven't done anything wrong all season long. Ever since they beat the Virginia Tech Hokies by just three points to open the season, they haven't been challenged. The Broncos have only had one other team stick within even four touchdowns and have averaged smacking WAC foes by 42.8 PPG.
Quarterback Kellen Moore is still trying to make a case to be the Heisman Trophy winner, and he certainly helped his case last week by throwing for over 500 yards in the dominating win over the Hawaii Warriors.
Moore now has 2,372 yards through the air and has thrown for 21 TDs against only four picks.
The defense is what really makes the Broncos go, though. This unit ranks No. 2 in the country in total defense (231.4 YPG), rush defense (71.6 YPG), and scoring (12.6 PPG).
Without Enderle in the lineup last year, the Vandals went to the Smurf Turf and got whacked, 63-25. Boise State has won all 10 meetings against its instate rivals since 2000, winning by the average score of 52-19.
There's a reason that this is the ninth straight year in which the Broncos are favored by at least three TDs in this series. Bodog features them as 34 ½-point 'chalks' in this ESPN2 Friday telecast that kicks off at 6 p.m. PT, while the 'total' chimes in at 63.