Fresno St. at Boise St.
By Brian Edwards
Another Friday provides bettors with another chance to cash tickets on what might be the best football team in America. Yes, I’m talking about Boise State (9-0 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) and there’s no hyperbole in my tone whatsoever.
Chris Petersen’s team returns home to face Fresno State (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) on ESPN2 at 9:30 p.m. Eastern. Most books are listing the Broncos as 30½-point favorites with a total of 66½. The offshore book 5Dimes had the Bulldogs as 40/1 longshots to win outright (risk $100 to win $4,000).
BSU rolled to an easy 52-14 win at Idaho last week as a 34-point road favorite. Junior quarterback Kellen Moore enjoyed another stellar performance, throwing three touchdown passes without being intercepted. For the season, Moore has now completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 2,588 yards with a 24/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
BSU drew first blood against the Vandals early in the first quarter when Chris Potter scored on a 76-yard punt return. After Doug Martin and Jeremy Avery both got into the end zone on TD runs, Moore hit Titus Young for a 58-yard scoring strike that gave the Broncos a 28-0 lead late in the first quarter.
Following a 17-yard TD pass from Moore to Avery, BSU took a 38-0 lead at halftime. That’s right, in a rivalry game laying 34 on the road, it was ahead of the number before intermission.
Not even in a minute into the second half, Doug Martin’s 39-yard TD run gave BSU a 45-0 advantage. Martin would finish with 117 yards and two TDs on just 16 carries. For the year, Martin has rushed for a team-high 866 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
Fresno St. is coming off a gut-wrenching 35-34 loss to Nevada. However, the Bulldogs did hook up their backers as 7 ½-point home underdogs.
Robbie Rouse ran for 217 yards and a pair of touchdown in the losing effort. Fresno QB Ryan Colburn threw a pair of TD passes and wasn’t intercepted, but the Bulldogs couldn’t overcome a pair of fumbles and lost when Nevada’s Vai Tua scored on a 24-yard TD run with 4:51 left.
On the ensuing drive, Fresno St. got to midfield before running out of downs with 1:26 remaining.
Pat Hill’s team has been dynamic offensively all year long. Rouse has been the catalyst, rushing for 944 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. He also has a pair of TDs receiving.
Colburn has connected on 64.2 percent of his pass attempts for 1,930 yards with an 18/7 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is Jamel Hamler, a junior WR who has 34 receptions for 525 yards and five touchdowns.
Boise St. will be playing without LB Byron Hout, who sustained a broken foot last week. Meanwhile, Fresno St. has a banged-up offensive line. Senior OG Andrew Jackson, who was a first-team All-WAC choice last year, is “questionable” with an ankle sprain. FSU center Joe Bernardi, a second-team All-WAC selection last season, is also “questionable” with a sprained ankle after missing last week’s game vs. Nevada.
Fresno St. is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog, while Boise St. is 16-10 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ during Petersen’s five-year tenure. This is the first time the Bulldogs have been double-digit underdogs this year.
Boise St. has won four in a row against Fresno St. and eight of the last nine both SU and ATS. When these schools met in Fresno last year, the Broncos cruised to a 61-10 win as 21-point road favorites.
The ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in Fresno’s last seven games. For the year, the Bulldogs have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 overall, 4-0 in their road assignments. As for Boise St., it has seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, 3-1 in its home games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The latest in the Cam Newton Saga involves the FBI, wiretaps, Auburn boosters and much more. Check out this excellent piece posted on SportsByBrooks on Wednesday afternoon.
California owns a 5-0 spread record at home this year. The Bears will play host to arch-rival Stanford as 6½-point home underdogs on Saturday. The Cardinal has posted a 4-0-1 ATS mark when listed as a single-digit favorite this season. We’ll see what gives in Berkley this weekend.
Texas A&M has won four in a row both SU and ATS. The Aggies will play host to Nebraska as 2½-point home underdogs this week. The Cornhuskers have covered the number in all of their games as single-digit ‘chalk’ this year.
Oklahoma has won 19 in a row over Baylor. The Bears will try to end that record of futility Saturday as 7½-point home underdogs. The Sooners are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road this year.
Virginia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine head-to-head meetings against Miami. The Hokies go to South Florida this weekend as 2½-point road favorites. They are 3-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year.
Here’s my Top 10 this week (that assumes Cam Newton to be eligible moving forward)
1-Boise St.
2-Auburn
3-Oregon
4-TCU
5-Wisconsin
6-LSU
7-Arkansas
8-Va. Tech
9-Alabama
10-Ohio St.
Next Five: Stanford, Nebraska, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and South Carolina.
vegasinsider.com.
Fresno State at Boise State: What Bettors Need to Know
By NICK PARSONS
Oddsmakers are forecasting a blowout Friday night when the Fresno State Bulldogs pay a visit to the blue turf at Boise State. Here is a look at that feature game, which has the Broncos listed as -30.5 favorites
Why Fresno State will cover
The key to a Fresno State cover will rely on Robbie Rouse. The 5-foot-7 sophomore running back has been on a tear, rushing for a combined 503 yards in just two games.
His 217-yard, two-touchdown performance against Nevada last week was particularly impressive, considering that Nevada was only giving up 115.2 yards rushing yards per game heading into that contest.
Pat Hill will utilize his new star and we should see him focus more on the rush. What this means for bettors is that possession times will be higher than average for the Bulldogs, which should make a -30.5 cover difficult. Remember that last year, Fresno State running back Ryan Matthews ran for 234 yards against the Broncos
Factor that in with the Broncos vulnerability to a backdoor cover. One can’t blame Boise State for having its minds focused on Nevada next week or even its bowl game in January. Even if the Broncos get out to a four-touchdown lead early, they will look to rest starters and kill the clock.
In fact in their last four WAC games, the Broncos have actually been outscored 21-14 in the fourth quarter.
Why Boise State will cover
Boise State can’t control what Oregon, Auburn or TCU do on the field so, in an attempt to win over voters, its only option is to blowout every team left on their schedule. The No. 4 team in the BCS has done a good job of covering the spread going 7-2 ATS. This stat is even more impressive as the Broncos have had to deal with an average line of -27.5
This Friday, they encounter a Fresno State squad that is coming off a heart-breaking one-point loss to Nevada and a team that Chris Peterson has dominated. The fifth-year head coach has covered the spread in all four of his encounters with the Bulldogs and, in their last game on the blue turf, Boise State won 61-10.
Fresno State is a decent 6-3 this year but only two of those games were against teams with a winning record (not counting the game against 7-4 Cal Poly). The two games were against Hawaii and Nevada and the Bulldogs gave up 49 points and 35 points respectively.
Boise State’s offense and defense are much more dynamic than Hawaii and Nevada, which should translate into the Broncos easily scoring seven touchdowns and in keeping Fresno State well below its season scoring average.
Combine that with the motivation for blowing out the game on national TV and you have the makings of another Boise State cover.
Notes on the total
The total opened at 65.5 at most books and has since moved up by a point to 66.5. During the Chris Peterson era at Boise State, this matchup has gone over the total three out of four times. The last two weren’t even close to the posted number. The total was 57 in 2008 and 71 points were scored. Last year, the number was just at 52.5 and 85 points were scored.
However, take note of the fact that Boise State is on a two-game under streak in which it has taken it easy in the second half.
Key matchup: Fresno State OL vs Boise State DL
Simply put, Fresno State will not have a chance to put up points if it can’t stop the Boise State defensive line. The Bulldogs have key offensive linemen Andrew Jackson and Joe Bernardi (Both preseason WAC first teamers) listed as questionable, so it will be up to the backups to make way for Robbie Rouse and give quarterback Ryan Colburn time to make plays.
The line and weather
The spread has remained steady at -30.5 at most books and consensus opinion appears to be split. Translation: Books have done their job and don’t care what the result is.
There is a 50 percent chance of rain and snow showers are expected by kickoff in Boise, with lows in the high 20s and Northwest winds at approximately 10 mph.
Tale of the tape: Fresno State at Boise State
The Boise State Broncos, darlings of the weeknight game, host WAC rival Fresno State in a game that has resembled a blowout in each of the past four meetings. However, a 30-point spread could be a difficult hill to climb, even for the BCS busting Broncos.
Offense:
Boise State stud quarterback Kellen Moore is back on track to get an invite to New York City for the Heisman Trophy presentation. Moore has thrown for 2,588 yards with 24 touchdowns against four interceptions this season, including tossing at least two in each of his past five starts. On the ground, the Broncos average more than 214 yards per game, the 16th-best mark in the country. Tailback Doug Martin has 866 rush yards this season, while Jeremy Avery has a team-high 11 rushing scores this season.
Overall, the Broncos average a staggering 47.6 points per game.
Fresno State, however, does one thing better than anything else on offense: score points. The team is 35th nationally in rushing yards per game (180.3), 61st in passing yards (219.2) and 51st in total yards (399.6), but averages nearly 35 points, the 23rd best mark in the nation.
Running back Robbie Rouse is the catalyst for the team’s strong rushing attack, gaining 944 yards on the ground to go with 10 scores.
Edge: Boise State
Defense:
The Broncos have a surprisingly strong stop unit, giving up the third fewest total yards (240.8), second fewest rushing yards (74.9) and points (12.8) per game. The team also has a superior pass defense, touting the 10th-ranked secondary in the country as the group is giving up an average of just 165.9 aerial yards per game. In the team’s most recent game, a 52-14 win over Idaho, it held the Vandals offense to just 316 total yards and forced three interceptions.
This unit is the biggest weakness on the Bulldogs. The team coughs up an average of more than 28 points per game – 78th nationally – and isn’t great at slowing teams down on their way to the end zone. The team has a decent passing defense, yielding an average of 193.9 yards per game through the air, but defensive back Desia Dunn leads the team with a meager two interceptions. If teams struggle at all passing, they switch to the ground, where Fresno State allows more than 155 yards per game, in the bottom half of teams nationally.
Edge: Boise State
Special teams:
Broncos kicker Kyle Brotzman has nailed 10 field goals and 41 extra points this year, but has a long of just 47 yards. On the other sideline, Kevin Goessling has banged 15 field goals to go with 37 PATs. Goessling also has a long of 50 yards this season.
Fresno State can block the hell out of some kicks. Pat Hill’s boys lead the nation in snuffed kicks, smacking back an NCAA-high six this season. The team is sound in the kicking game and uses it as a big momentum shift in close games.
Boise State, however, does have three blocked kicks of its own.
Edge: Fresno State
Word on the street:
“It does bother us -- but not the fact that the starters are out, but more the fact that they’re scoring no matter who’s out there. You have a sense that maybe we’re easing up a little bit or not playing with that urgency.” – Senior nickel back Winston Venable on the backups giving up more points than the starters the past six games.
"We got them to just play football. When they need plays, they try to mess up your eyes with their shifting and moving and hit you with trick plays. But our eyes were right. We weren't fooled. They eventually stopped their shifting and moving, and that's when we really took it to them. It can be done still. You just got to make them play your style, play Bulldog football." - Former Fresno State linebacker Alan Goodwin on the Bulldogs last win over Boise State in 2005.
Final score prediction:
Boise State 54, Fresno State, 27
Tips and Trends
Fresno St. Bulldogs at Boise St. Broncos
BULLDOGS: Fresno St. is 6-3 SU on the year, and they were 1 point away from upsetting nationally ranked Nevada. The Bulldogs lost last week 34-35 SU in a spirited battle. The Bulldogs will need to bounce back quickly emotionally if they are to give Boise St. a competitive game. While 6-3 SU this year, they are only 4-4-1 ATS on the year. The Bulldogs are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in road settings this season. QB Ryan Colburn has had a solid season, throwing for 1,930 YDS and 18 TD's this season. Colburn directs an offense that is scoring 34.7 PPG, 23rd best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to score offensively, because Boise St. has scored a combined 112 PTS in their previous 2 meetings. Making matters worse is the fact that weakest part of the Fresno St. team is their defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 28.4 PPG this year, something Coach Pat Hill simply shakes his head at. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Fresno St. is 13-27 ATS in their last 40 conference games. The Bulldogs are 14-35-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Fresno St. is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.
Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-0 last 5 road games.
Key Injuries - OL Andrew Jackson (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
BRONCOS: (-30.5, O/U 66.5) Boise St. is 3 win away from perfection. This team is still completely focused, as they play arguably their toughest back to back games of the season starting tonight. While a 30 point favorite, Fresno St. is a WAC stalwart, and they won't be intimidated here. Boise St. is still playing for the opportunity to play for the BCS Championship this season. Beating Fresno St. convincingly will certainly help them in that endeavor. The Broncos are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS overall this year. Boise St. is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in home games this year. QB Kellen Moore has been brilliant all year long, as he's thrown for nearly 2,600 YDS and 24 TD's this year. Moore directs an offense that is averaging 47.6 PPG, 2nd most in the nation. Even better, the Broncos are allowing the 2nd fewest points in the country at 12.8 PPG. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as the listed favorite. Boise St. is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of more than 10 PTS. Boise St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Broncos are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Broncos are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 games as a home favorite.
Broncos are 13-5 ATS last 18 Friday games overall.
Under is 5-1 last 6 conference games.
Key Injuries - TE Tommy Gallarda (foot) is questionable.
Projected Score: 49 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Friday's Game Preview
Favorite covered last eight Fresno-Boise games, with Broncos winning last four by average score of 47-21; Bulldogs lost last four games on blue turf by average score of 52-17 (0-4 vs spread). Boise still needs to win big in these games so they don't slip in polls; they're 6-2 vs spread this year, 2-2 at home, winning by average score of 46-16. Bulldogs are 2-1 as an underdog this year. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Fresno games.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos Preview
By: Jeff Mattingly
Fresno State heads to Idaho for its final road game of the 2010 season and will face off against the No. 3 Boise State Broncos Friday night on ESPN2. The Broncos are the highest rated team Fresno State has played since playing at No. 1 USC in 2005, a game the Bulldogs lost 50-42. The program is 7-11 in Friday night national television games, with five of those losses coming to tonight's opponent. Fresno State nearly pulled off an upset last week, losing to the Nevada Wolfpack in a game that featured seven lead changes. "We need to bury it and get ready for Boise State," said head coach Pat Hill. "We have a short week and will be in for a tough challenge against one of the best teams in the country." The team is 8-14 ATS versus conference opponents the last three years.
The Bulldogs will need a big game from its defense to remain competitive in this contest and will rely heavily on its ability to get to the quarterback. Fresno State currently ranks sixth in the nation in sacks with 27, but Boise State ranks higher in getting to the signal caller 35 times. Defensive end Chris Carter has nine solo sacks for minus-50 yards and defensive tackle Logan Harrell has seven sacks of his own. The unit is 77th nationally in scoring defense, allowing more than 28.4 points per game, but ranks 45th in the NCAA in total defense, surrendering 349.5 yards a contest.
Boise State certainly has the upper hand in this series by winning eight of nine WAC meetings and leads the all-time series, 8-4. "I've been a fan of what Boise State's not only done as a football team, but as an entire program from top to bottom," said Hill. "I have a lot of respect for how they do things and what they do." The Broncos are no stranger to non-Saturday contests, posting a 32-2 record in those regular-season tilts, including a 7-1 mark versus the Bulldogs. The team is also riding a school-record 23-game regular-season winning streak and can tie a record for consecutive home wins this week (31). Boise State is 24-8 ATS the last three years.
The Broncos offense is a high-octane unit that has scored at least 33 points in every game this season and at least 42 points in six straight. Quarterback Kellen Moore continues to be one of the better signal callers in the nation, leading the country with a 191.2 passer rating. "We're well aware we've got big opponents coming up, WAC championship implications, big-time teams," said Moore. His team will have plenty of confidence lining up for this contest knowing its the only program in the country to rank in the top five in both total offense (530.22 ypg) and total defense (240.78 ypg).
Bettors will be interested in laying the Bulldogs due to their 1-8 ATS mark in Friday games, while the Broncos are 13-5 ATS in the same situation.