Akron Zips vs. Bowling Green Falcons
The Akron Zips and the Bowling Green Falcons will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Doyt Perry Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Zips, while the game's total is sitting at 52½.
Akron was crushed 56-17 by Temple in Week 11 as a 6-point underdog. The 73 points sailed OVER the posted total of 45.
Bowling Green's defense shut down Miami (OH) in the second half of a 35-14 victory in Week 11. Bowling Green easily covered the 4.5-point spread, while the 49 points went UNDER the posted total of 59.
Current streak:
Bowling Green has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Akron: 2-8 SU, 3-6 ATS
Bowling Green: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Akron most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 2-8
Bowling Green most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 6 games
Akron is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Akron is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Akron
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Akron
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Akron home to Eastern Michigan, Friday, November 27
Bowling Green home to Toledo, Friday, November 27
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets
The fans at Glass Bowl will be treated to a game between the Eastern Michigan Eagles and the Toledo Rockets when they take their seats on Friday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rockets listed as 16½-point favorites versus the Eagles, while the game's total is sitting at 61.
Alex Gillett passed for 186 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions as well as rushed for 105 yards and one TD for Eastern Michigan in a 35-14 loss to Western Michigan in Week 11.
The Eagles did not cover the 13.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 59.5.
Toledo was torn apart 56-28 by Central Michigan in Week 11 as a 17.5-point underdog. That game's 84 points sailed OVER the posted total of 64.
Current streak:
Eastern Michigan has lost 10 straight games.
Toledo has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Eastern Michigan: 0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS
Toledo: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS
Eastern Michigan most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the conference are 1-9
Toledo most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games
Eastern Michigan is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Eastern Michigan is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toledo
Toledo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Eastern Michigan
Toledo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Eastern Michigan
Toledo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games
Next up:
Eastern Michigan at Akron, Friday, November 27
Toledo at Bowling Green, Friday, November 27
Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies
The Boise State Broncos and the Utah State Aggies will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Romney Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 23-point favorites versus the Aggies, while the game's total is sitting at 61½.
Kellen Moore led the way with five touchdown passes as Boise State beat Idaho 63-25 in Week 11.
The Broncos covered the 32-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 64.
Robert Turbin led Utah State with two rushing touchdowns in a 24-9 win over San Jose State in Week 11.
The Aggies covered the 12.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 57.
Current streak:
Boise State has won 10 straight games.
Team records:
Boise State: 10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS
Utah State: 3-7 SU, 7-2 ATS
Boise State most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 10-0
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 10-0
Utah State most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 1-9
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boise State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah State's last 7 games
Utah State is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
Next up:
Boise State home to Nevada, Friday, November 27
Utah State at Idaho, Saturday, November 28
AKRON (2 - 8) at BOWLING GREEN (5 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN (0 - 10) at TOLEDO (4 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 2-0 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST (10 - 0) at UTAH ST (3 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
BOISE ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 55-28 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 30-9 ATS (+20.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
AKRON vs. BOWLING GREEN
Akron is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Akron is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Akron
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. TOLEDO
Eastern Michigan is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toledo
Eastern Michigan is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toledo
Toledo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toledo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
BOISE STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Boise State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Utah State is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
AKRON at BOWLING GREEN
AKRON: 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
BOWLING GREEN: 9-1 ATS in November games
E MICHIGAN at TOLEDO
E MICHIGAN: 2-11 ATS on turf
TOLEDO: 6-0 ATS off loss by 21+ points
BOISE ST at UTAH ST
BOISE ST: 56-17 ATS 2nd half of season
UTAH ST: 0-7 ATS vs. Boise State
Friday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a trio of college football games to wager on Friday night. The action starts at 5:30 Eastern and will go until past midnight. Let’s take a look at all three matchups.
**Akron at Bowling Green**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Bowling Green (5-5 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 53. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Falcons as 10½-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 52. The Zips are plus-325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325).
After winning its opener 31-14 against Troy, Dave Clawson’s squad lost four in a row. Since then, however, Bowling Green has won four of its last five games to get back to .500. The Falcons return home in this spot after winning back-to-back road contests at Buffalo (30-29) and at Miami (OH.) (35-14).
Akron (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) took woodshed treatment last week when Temple came to town and clubbed the Zips 56-17 as a six-point road favorite.
J.D. Brookhart’s team is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season. The Zips have lost four of their five road games by 14 points or more.
Bowling Green senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,189 yards with a 19/6 touchdown-interception ratio. Sheehan has one of the nation’s premier wideouts in senior Freddy Barnes, who has 117 receptions for 1,285 yards and 12 touchdowns. Barnes leads the nation in catches and is second in both receiving yards and TD grabs.
Bowling Green owns a 1-3 record both SU and ATS at home but we should note that two of those defeats came to Boise State and Central Michigan, two of the country’s premier non-BCS programs.
ESPNU will have the telecast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Eastern Michigan at Toledo**
LVSC opened Toledo (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a 17-point favorite with a total of 65. As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Rockets favored by 18 with the total in the 62-63 range.
Toledo has lost three in a row both SU and ATS, including last Wednesday’s 56-28 loss at Central Michigan as a 17½-point underdog. Senior QB Aaron Opelt returned to the lineup for the first time in a month, only to be intercepted three times. He is clearly still bothered by a shoulder injury and his status for Friday is “questionable.” Opelt has a 16/9 TD-INT ratio this year.
Eastern Michigan (0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS) is still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Ron English, who was formerly the defensive coordinator at Michigan and Louisville. The Eagles have lost eight of their 10 games by double-digit margins.
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road, while the Rockets are 2-2 both SU and ATS at home.
This is Toledo’s first double-digit ‘chalk’ situation since losing 35-16 to Florida International last season as a 19½-point home favorite.
Toledo is 6-1 both SU and ATS in its last seven head-to-head meetings against the Eagles.
The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for the Rockets, 3-1 in their home games.
**Boise State at Utah State **
LVSC opened Boise State (10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) as a 24-point favorite with a total of 59. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Broncos listed as 23-point road ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 61 ½.
Chris Petersen’s team rolled to a 63-25 win over Idaho on the smurf turf last week. BSU took the cash as a 31½-point home favorite. Kellen Moore enjoyed another stellar performance, connecting on 22-of-33 throws for 299 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. For the season, Moore now has an amazing 32/3 TD-INT ratio that would make it a crime if he’s left out of the Heisman finalists that go to New York City in a few weeks.
Boise St. junior WR Austin Pettis had four TD catches against the Vandals last week, bringing his season total to an NCAA-best 14. Pettis had eight receptions for 123 yards vs. Idaho, while Titus Young had six catches for 101 yards. Jeremy Avery carried the load on the ground with 110 rushing yards on 14 carries.
Utah St. (3-7 SU, 7-2 ATS) owns a 4-0 spread record as a double-digit underdog this season. Dating back even further, the Aggies are 6-1 versus the number in their last seven spots as double-digit ‘dogs.
Gary Andersen’s team is 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year. The Aggies’ lone home loss came to Nevada by a 35-32 score as eight-point puppies.
Utah St. has an outstanding QB in junior Diondre Borel, who can hurt opponents with his passing and scrambling. Borel has an excellent 13/3 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 433 yards and six scores.
--Utah St. RB Robert Turbin is enjoying a brilliant sophomore campaign. Turbin has 1,122 rushing yards and nine TDs. That’s good for a 6.6 yard-per-carry average.
Boise St. is undefeated in five road games this year with a 3-2 spread leger. Two Fridays ago, the Broncos won 45-35 at La. Tech but failed to hook up their backers as 20 ½-point favorites.
When these WAC rivals met in 2008, BSU collected a 49-14 home win at Bronco Stadium. However, the Aggies covered the spread, albeit barely, as 35 ½-point underdogs.
Kickoff is slated for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
After destroying USC 55-21 last week as a 10 ½-point road underdog, Stanford returns home to host a Jahvid-Best-less California squad. Most books have the Cardinal as a seven-point ‘chalk.’ Jim Harbaugh’s squad is 5-0 both SU and ATS at home, winning each game by eight points or more.
Speaking of the Trojans, who have an open date this week, they have burned the pockets of their backers at a 1-8 ATS clip in their last nine games.
Ohio St. is a 12½-point road favorite at Michigan this week. Although the Buckeyes never threatened to cover their inflated number in last week’s overtime win over Iowa, they still are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 outings. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are in the midst of 0-4 and 1-6 ATS slides. They have given up 35, 38, 38 and 45 points in their last four games.
During Rich Rodriguez’s two-year tenure at Michigan, the school has lost 14 of 22 games. I’m having a hard time identifying the Wolverines’ best win under R-Rod. The choices are as follows: vs. Miami (OH.), vs. Wisconsin, at Minnesota, vs. Western Michigan, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Indiana and vs. Delaware St.
Did you know that La. Tech had the lead at LSU last week at halftime? For the game, the Bulldogs had more first downs (23-15) and yards (322-246) than the Tigers in Baton Rouge. Nevertheless, LSU won a 24-16 decision. Fortunately for Les Miles and Co., Jordan Jefferson will be back under center this week after sitting out against La. Tech with an ankle sprain. The guess here is that Jarrett Lee has played his final down in a Tiger uniform after last week’s abysmal performance (7-of-22 for 105 yds.).
The story of former Ole Miss OT Michael Oher is one of the more inspiring tales you’ll ever hear in life (much less sports). Now at this point, we’re all thinking Sandra Bullock is getting a little too much air time in the relentless promotion of the movie based on Oher’s life, The Blind Side. However, it would be cold and borderline ruthless to be critical of anything related to the movie that’ll be released Friday. Nevertheless, that’s exactly what CBSsports.com’s Dennis Dodd did earlier this week in this column. Instead of thinking about the positives of such a story/movie/whatever, Dodd opts to play ‘the SEC card’ and talk about how the movie is “free recruiting” for the SEC.
vegasinsider.com.
News and Notes Friday
Akron lost seven of last eight games (2-6 vs spread); they're 3-5 as a dog this season, 2-3 on road. Zips converted 10 of last 47 on third down, as new QB has struggled. Bowling Green won four of last five games, with pair of one-point wins; they're 2-3 as favorite this year, 0-1 at home. In their last eight games, Falcons held only one team under 200 rush yards. Home side won three of last four series games. Three of Bowling Green's last four games stayed under the total.
Toledo won four of last five games vs Eastern Michigan, winning the last two played here, 30-3/52-28, but Rockets lost four of last five games, allowing 40-31-56 points in last three- they're 2-3 as favorite this year, 0-2 at home. Eastern is 0-10, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by an average score of 48-16- they're winless with a -1 turnover ratio!!! MAC home favorites are 11-9 against spread this season. Over is 3-1 in last four EMU games and five of last seven Toledo games.
Boise State won last eight games vs Utah State, winning last two at this site, 45-21/52-0; Broncos are 7-2 vs spread as favorite this year, 3-2 on road, winning away games by 17-35-7-45-10 points- they have turnover ratio of +14 in last four games. Utah State is 7-2 vs spread this year, 5-0 as an underdog- they're 3-1 SU at home this year, with only loss 35-32 to a red-hot Nevada team. Five of last seven Boise games went over the total. WAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread this season.
What Bettors Need to Know: Boise State at Utah State
By Lee Kostroski
Line movements
Boise State opened as a 24.5-point favorite but that line made a steady drop throughout the week and now sits at 23 points. The total hasn’t moved much and remains at 61.5.
The skinny
Boise State hasn’t necessarily struggled on the road this season, but they haven’t been as dominant on the road as they have been at home. On the blue turf of Boise, the Broncos are 5-0 and outscore their opponents by an average of 30 ppg and allow just 263.4 ypg (4-1 ATS).
They are also 5-0 on the road, but struggle a bit defensively. They are allowing 22.6 ppg and 328 ypg (3-2 ATS). They’ve had two close calls - a 7-point win at Tulsa, and a 10-point win at Louisiana Tech.
Utah State is 3-1 (both ATS & SU) at home this season and its only loss was a narrow 3-point defeat against Nevada in October. The Aggies’ three wins of the season have been at home and their record stands at 3-7.
Don’t be quick to judge the Aggies by their 3-7 record. They’ve been in almost every game this season but just haven’t come out on top. Four of their losses are by eight points or less and the margin of defeat in all of their losses is by just 9.5 ppg.
Heisman hopeful
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is quietly having himself a breakout season. Moore is completing 67 percent of his passes for 255.8 ypg with 32 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
In his last four games alone, he’s completed 70 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. Last year against Utah State, Moore was 27-of-36, for 362 yards with two touchdowns in a 49-14 Boise victory. The Aggies have had their share of problems on defense this season and rank 107th in total defense and 97th in scoring defense.
They will have to play a lot better if they want to stick with the high-octane offense of Boise State.
Aggies key: Ground game
If Utah State wants to stay in this game, they will have to do what few teams have been able to do against Boise State - run the ball effectively. The Broncos have allowed just three of their opponents to finish with over 100 yards rushing; Fresno State, La. Tech, and Idaho.
Those opponents had the three highest point totals against the Broncos this season with 34, 35, and 25 points, respectively. Two of those three games were in the past two weeks. Is that a sign that Boise State is getting fatigued? Or is it just that every team is giving the Broncos 150 percent?
In any case, if Utah State can get Robert Turbin the ball early and often (1122 yds rushing, nine TD’s, 334 yds receiving, three TD’s), the Aggies could remain in this game long enough to get the ATS cover.
Trends
Boise State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Friday games. Utah State is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Broncos have gone over in five of their last six road games, but the Aggies have stayed under in five of their last eight home games.
Head-to-head: the Broncos are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings with Utah State and the game has gone over the total in four of the last five meetings.
Weather
The beautiful city of Logan, Utah will be partly cloudy and comfortable. Temps are forecasted for mid 50s at kickoff, slightly dipping to 40s as the game progresses. No precipitation is expected with relatively calm winds (5-10 mph).
Akron (2-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Bowling Green (5-5 SU and ATS)
Bowling Green will try and get itself one step closer to bowl-eligibility when it welcomes Akron to Doyt L. Perry Stadium for a Mid-American Conference East Division matchup.
The Falcons have rallied to win four of their last five (3-2 ATS) after opening the season 1-4 (2-3 ATS). All four wins have come on the highway, including a 35-14 victory at Miami (Ohio) a week ago tonight, and they cashed as four-point road favorites. Bowling Green, which has scored 30 points or more in five of its last six contests, averages 25.4 points per game and has the nation’s fourth-best passing attack (324.7 passing yards per game). QB Tyler Sheehan has thrown for 3,189 yards with 19 TDs and just six INTs, and his top target is All-American candidate WR Freddie Barnes, who leads the nation in receptions (117) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,285, 128.5 ypg) and TDs (12).
Akron has lost seven of its last eight games (2-6 ATS) and is coming off last Friday’s ugly 56-17 loss to Temple as a six-point home underdog. Contrary to Bowling Green, the Zips struggle on offense, managing to top 21 points just twice this season and scoring 17 or less in five of their last six games. Akron has lost all five of its road games (2-3 ATS) by an average of 17.2 ppg (31-13.8) while getting outgained by more than 175 yards per game (405.2-228.4). Additionally, the Zips produce just 52.4 rushing ypg (1.8 per carry) away from home while surrendering 215.6 rushing ypg (4.9 per carry).
The SU winner is 8-1 ATS in Akron’s last nine games (4-0 ATS last four) and 8-2 ATS in Bowling Green’s 10 games this year (4-0 ATS last four).
Bowling Green has taken each of the last two meetings in this rivalry both SU and ATS and it is 4-1-1 ATS in the last five. Last year, the Falcons won 37-33 as a one-point road favorite, and the last time these teams met in Bowling Green, the Falcons delivered a 44-20 beatdown as a 6½-point chalk. The Zips are just 1-4 ATS in the last five trips to Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Akron is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-7 in MAC games, 1-4 in November, 2-5 on the road, 2-5 as a ‘dog and 0-4-1 on Friday. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine November games and 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday contests, but they are on negative pointspread runs of 4-17 at home, 2-14 as a home favorite, 2-8 at home against teams with losing road records and 2-5 after spread-cover.
The Zips have topped the total in 11 of their last 15 MAC games and six of their last seven November contests, but the under is on runs of 5-1 when Akron goes on the road and 3-1 when it comes off a straight-up loss. It’s been all “unders” for the Falcons lately, including 5-2 in November, 8-2 against teams with losing records and 4-0 after a SU or ATS win. Conversely, the “over” has been the play in each of the last three meetings in this rivarly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOWLING GREEN
Eastern Michigan (0-10, 3-7 ATS) at Toledo (4-6 SU and ATS)
Eastern Michigan will try once again to get in the win column when it travels to the Glass Bowl for a Mid-American Conference West Division battle with the Rockets.
The Eagles went to Western Michigan on Saturday and suffered yet another double-digit loss, falling to Western Michigan 35-14 as a 13½-pont home underdog. Not only has Eastern Michigan lost eight of its 10 games by double figures, but five of the last six have been by 21 or more. The Eagles have had trouble on both sides of the ball, scoring 14 points or less six times and allowing 27 points or more in nine of the last 10. They’re 1-5 ATS in MAC games this year, all as an underdog.
In addition to losing all 10 games this season, Eastern Michigan has dropped 15 of its last 16, 19 of its last 21 and 25 of its last 29. The Eagles are 2-15 SU (7-10 ATS) on the road during this stretch, including an ongoing nine-game road losing skid (4-5 ATS).
Toledo’s season has unraveled in the last three weeks, losing three straight MAC games (0-3 ATS) to Temple (40-24 as a one-point home favorite), Miami of Ohio (31-24 as a five-point road chalk) and Central Michigan (56-28 as a 17-point road underdog). The Rockets have scored at least 24 points in eight of 10 games this season, but they’ve surrendered 30 points or more in nine of those contests. Toledo is 1-3 SU and ATS in its four home games (0-2 ATS as a home favorite), and its current three-game SU and ATS losing skid slump comes after 3-1 SU and ATS run. The winner has cashed in 12 straight Rockets games dating to last season.
Toledo has dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row and eight of the last nine, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven. The Rockets hosted Eastern Michigan in 2007 and rolled 52-28 as a 7½-point chalk, then visited the Eagles last season and cruised 41-17 as a two-point road underdog, ending a 6-0 ATS run by the favorite in this rivalry.
Eastern Michigan’s ATS skids include 12-23 overall (2-6 last eight), 1-5 in conference, 1-7 on artificial turf, 3-9 versus teams with a losing record and 1-4 as an underdog of more than 10 points. Toledo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall (all in MAC play), 2-5 in November and 0-6 as a favorite of more than 10 points, but the Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after an outright defeat.
The Eagles have topped the total in four straight road games (all as a double-digit underdog) and six of eight in November, and the Rockets are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 15-7 at home, 9-2 as a favorite and 8-1 as a home favorite. However, three of the last four Toledo-Eastern Michigan clashes have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO and OVER
(6) Boise State (10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Utah State (3-7 SU, 6-3 ATS)
The Broncos look to remain undefeated and in the BCS Bowl hunt when they make their final road trip of the season, this one to Logan, Utah, to face Utah State in a Western Athletic Conference showdown.
With three games left in the season, Boise State is a half-game behind Nevada atop the WAC standings and the two are scheduled to clash on the “Smurf Turf” in Idaho a week from tonight. The Broncos stayed perfect with Saturday’s 63-25 destruction of conference and instate rival Idaho, cashing as a 32-point home favorite. Boise has scored 28 points or more in each of their last nine games, and they lead the nation in scoring at 43.6 points a game, scoring 45 or more six times. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has put himself into Heisman Trophy consideration by completing 67.4 percent of his throws for 2,558 yards with an NCAA-best 32 TDs against just three INTs. Last week, Moore went 22-for-32 for 299 yards with five TDs and no picks.
Utah State is just 2-5 (5-2 ATS) in its last seven games, but it easily beat lowly San Jose State on Saturday, rolling 24-9 as a 12½-point favorite. The Aggies have scored 23 points or more in each of their last five games, but their defense is giving up an average of 30.7 points and a whopping 435 yards per game. Utah State is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in WAC home games, with the lone loss being a 35-32 setback to Nevada as an 8½-point home underdog on Oct. 17.
Boise State has won eight straight in this rivalry (6-0-2 ATS) and is averaging 54 ppg in the last six meetings, scoring at least 45 points in all six. Last year, the Broncos rolled 49-14 at home but pushed as a 35-point favorite, but in 2007 they went to Utah State and delivered a 52-0 drubbing as a 24½-point favorite. Boise is 5-0 ATS has cashed in five straight trips to Logan and is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes overall.
Boise is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 15-4-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 30-10-2 in November, 11-4 on Friday, 8-3-1 when laying 20 points or more and 34-15-1 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Aggies have also been solid at the betting window, currently on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 8-0 at home, 8-2-1 in WAC games, 6-1-1 in November, 8-0-1 as an underdog, 3-0-1 on Fridays and 5-0-1 against winning teams.
For the Broncos, the over is on streaks of 6-1 in WAC games, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 on Friday and 4-0 in November. Utah State is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 at home, 5-2 in WAC action and 4-1 after a straight-up win. In this series, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five clashes, with five of the last six featuring 59 points or more.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
Tips and Trends
Boise State at Utah State
Boise State (-23.5, O/U 61.5): The Broncos are playing their last road game of the regular season. This is a dangerous game for the Broncos, as they also have a look ahead game to Nevada next week. This Boise St. offense has been electric over the past 4 games, averaging over 50 PPG. QB Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, TD's, and TD-INT ratio. He has 32 TDs vs. 3 INTs. The Broncos defense needs to play sharper tonight, as their defense has given up 53 points over the past 2 weeks.
Boise St is 9-3 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
Boise St is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings in Utah State.
Key Injuries - RB Matt Kaiserman (leg) is questionable.
DT J.P. Nisby (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 47 (Side of the Day)
Utah State: Utah St. only has 3 wins on the season, all at home. All of the Aggies home wins include wins ATS. Utah St. has lost 25 consecutive games against Top 25 foes. It's Senior Night, so you know there will be lots of passion from the Aggies. QB Diondre Borel (2,750 total YDS) has 19 TDs to only 3 INTs on the season. Borel has been very efficient this year, and will need to avoid any turnovers to have a chance tonight. RB Robert Turbin is the Aggies 1st RB to rush for more than 1,000 YDS in 7 years. On defense, Utah St. is strongest in the secondary. They will need to really focus on stopping the run, as they've allowed a few WAC teams to rush for more than 300 YPG.
Utah St is 8-1 ATS last 9 home games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - S James Brindley (hamstring) is questionable.
WR Matt Austin (foot) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17