Friday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a pair of Friday night games to wager on and both have national-title implications. Oregon will play host to Arizona as a double-digit home favorite, while Boise St. goes to Reno to take on Nevada in a game for the WAC title.
Let’s take an in-depth look at both contests.
**Arizona at Oregon**
Most betting shops have Oregon (10-0 straight up, 5-3-1 against the spread) installed as a 19½-point favorite with a total of 61½. The Ducks are unbeaten in five home games at Autzen Stadium with a 3-0-1 spread record.
Arizona (7-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) hasn’t tasted a victory since Oct. 30, losing back-to-back games at Stanford (42-17) and vs. Southern Cal (24-21). The Wildcats, who were four-point home favorites against the Trojans, couldn’t overcome a pair of costly fumbles and an ineffective running game. Junior quarterback Nick Foles certainly wasn’t at fault, completing 32-of-48 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
Chip Kelly’s team had won its first nine games by double-digit margins until barely escaping with a 15-13 win at California two weeks ago. The Ducks never threatened to cover the number as 18½-point road favorites. Cal had a chance to go ahead midway through the fourth quarter but missed a 29-yard field goal.
Oregon has been led by Heisman Trophy contender LaMichael James, a sophomore running back who has rushed for 1,442 yards and 18 touchdowns. Another sophomore, QB Darron Thomas, has been equally responsible for the Ducks’ success in 2010. Stepping in for Jeremiah Masoli, who was booted from the team after a number of off-the-field incidents, Thomas has connected on 61 percent of his passes for 2,207 yards with a 23/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jeff Maehl has been his favorite target, hauling in 59 receptions for 830 and 11 TDs.
Arizona RB Nic Grisby sustained a sprained ankle early in the 42-17 loss at Stanford on Nov. 6. He did not play in the 24-21 home loss to USC two weeks ago but is “probable” against the Ducks. Grigsby has rushed for 423 yards and eight TDs this year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Also, starting OG Vaughn Dotsy is “out” with a back injury. Matt Scott, AU’s back-up QB who didn’t play against USC due to a wrist injury, will be available and could share some time with Foles under center.
Oregon WR Lavasier Tuinei is “doubtful” with an arm injury. Tuinei has 33 catches for 321 yards and a pair of TD receptions this season.
The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall this year for Oregon, 4-0 in its home games with a total. Meanwhile, Arizona has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, 2-2 in its road assignments.
When these schools met last season in Tuscon, Oregon captured a 44-41 win in double overtime. However, the Wildcats took the cash as 5 ½-point road underdogs. James ran for 117 yards and former Ducks’ QB Jeremiah Masoli accounted for six touchdowns (three rushing and three passing). Maehl had 12 receptions for 114 yards and two TDs.
In last year’s loss to Oregon, Foles threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. Juron Criner had five catches for 93 yards and three TDs.
Arizona owns an 11-13 spread record in 24 games as a road underdog during Mike Stoops’ seven-year tenure.
As a home favorite on Kelly’s watch, Oregon is 6-2-1 ATS.
Foles has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio this season.
ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Boise State at Nevada**
Most sports books are listing Boise State (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 68. Bettors can take the home underdog to win outright for a plus-550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).
Nevada (10-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) has been burning the pockets of its backers recently, posting a 2-5 spread record in its last seven games. However, that’s merely an indication of the expensive numbers the Wolf Pack have been forced to lay. We’re still talking about a team that’s won nine of its 10 games by 14 points or more.
Chris Ault’s team suffered its lone loss of the year back on Oct. 16, when Hawaii captured a 27-21 win over the Wolf Pack as a 6½-point home underdog. Nevada had a close call two weeks ago, winning a 35-34 decision at Fresno St., but it was in complete cruise control in a 52-6 home win over New Mexico St. as a 37½-point favorite last week.
The catalyst for Ault’s Pistol offense, one that has been mimicked by a slew of teams across the country the last couple of years, is QB Colin Kaepernick. The senior signal caller has enjoyed another banner campaign, rushing for 981 yards and 16 touchdowns while passing for 2,412 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Kaepernick has averaged 7.2 YPC this year.
This game features two of the best QBs in WAC history. BSU junior Kellen Moore is a Heisman candidate thanks to 28 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions. Moore has connected on 71.8 percent of his pass attempts for 2,921 yards.
Chris Petersen’s squad is coming off one of its most complete performances of the season in a 51-0 win over Fresno St. as a 30½-point home favorite. The Broncos’ defense stole the show, limiting a prolific offense to just 125 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs had scored 27 points or more in their nine previous games.
When these schools met at Bronco Stadium last year, BSU was able to prevail by a 44-33 count in a hotly-contested ballgame. Nevada covered the number as a 13½-point road underdog. Moore threw five TD passes without being intercepted, while Kaepernick had three TD passes without a pick. His third scoring strike brought the Wolf Pack to within 34-33 early in the fourth quarter after they had trailed 20-0 and 27-3 in the first half.
Boise St. has won 10 in a row against Nevada, compiling a 7-2 spread record during that span. The Broncos have scored at least 38 points in the last 10 head-to-head encounters.
In Ault’s second tour of duty at Nevada, the Wolf Pack is 5-6 ATS as a home underdog. They beat Cal 52-31 back in Week 3 as three-point home ‘dogs.
Kick-off is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
vegasinsider.com
Iron Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
The Iron Bowl is always a bitter battle both on the field and in the stands, but this year’s showdown has both schools and their respective fan bases on edge even more than usual. And that’s saying something.
To Auburn fans, this is their year. In the past, one reason or another has prevented the Tigers from winning the national championship. When Terry Bowden led AU to an unbeaten record in his first season back in 1993, the school was on probation dating back to Pat Dye’s tenure.
When Tommy Tuberville led the Tigers to an unbeaten record in 2004, Oklahoma and Southern Cal were ranked higher and therefore received the bids to the BCS Championship Game.
Now in 2010, the Auburn faithful have had to endure the endless media coverage of the Cam Newton pay-for-play allegations. For a two-week stretch, it almost seemed inevitable that the Heisman Trophy front-runner would be ruled ineligible.
But the controversy has seemingly died down, at least in terms of whether or not Newton will be able to play out the rest of the season. For better or worse, AU has made its decision. It will not take Newton off the field.
Likewise, the SEC and the NCAA aren’t going to act until some new information comes to light or the investigation is completed.
As of Thursday morning, most sports books were listing Alabama (9-2 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) as a 4½-point favorite with the total in the 58-59 range. Gamblers can take the unbeaten Tigers to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Nick Saban’s team saw its hopes of repeating as national champs dashed in his old stomping grounds. When the Tide went to Baton Rouge on Nov. 6, LSU captured a 24-21 victory as a 6½-point home underdog.
Couple that loss with a 35-21 defeat at South Carolina and ‘Bama is simply trying to garner a second-place finish in the SEC West. But let’s be serious, all that matters to ‘The Bammers’ (as they are called by Auburn fans (‘Aubbies’) on the Paul Finebaum Show) is denying Auburn a shot at the national title.
And nothing would be more sweet for Auburn than to win it all in the year that ‘Bama thought it would be able to repeat.
Gene Chizik’s team is coming off a 49-31 home win over Georgia as an eight-point favorite. The Tigers fell behind by a 21-7 score late in the first quarter and the game was tied at 28-28 at intermission.
UGA redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray enjoyed a spectacular performance, matching Cam Newton drive for drive for three quarters. As we’ve said all year, teams can score on Auburn and its shaky secondary.
But at the end of four quarters, Newton and the Tigers’ offense are going to outscore you. And that’s the recipe AU has used to get to Tuscaloosa with an unblemished resume.
Auburn (11-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) hasn’t been an underdog all season long. The Tigers went 1-2 ATS as road underdogs in Chizik’s first season on The Plains.
Following an 8-5 campaign in 2009, Auburn figured to be a solid team this year with 15 returning starters. But the signing of Newton, the juco transfer who began his career behind Tim Tebow at Florida, gave the Tigers hope of a big season. And that’s exactly what the much-maligned signal caller has delivered.
Cut off from the media for the last three weeks, Newton’s stats have told his story and his play on the field has done his talking. With an enormous spotlight on him, Newton probably played his best game of the year in the win over Georgia.
He completed 12-of-15 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. However, two passes were dropped and he intentionally threw another away. The interception came on a pass that hit his tight end right on the numbers. In other words, Newton didn’t throw an errant pass in 15 attempts.
He also carried the load on the ground, rushing 30 times for 151 yards and two more scores. Onterio McCalebb also made big plays galore, rushing for 71 yards and three TDs on just 12 carries. Remember, it was McCalebb that busted off a 70-yard TD run midway through the final stanza to propel AU to a 24-17 home win over LSU back on Oct. 23.
For the season, Newton has connected on 68.2 percent of his throws for 2,038 yards with a 21/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His most impressive numbers come in the running game, however. Newton leads the SEC in rushing with 1,297 yards and 17 TDs. He averages 6.3 yards per carry.
We touched on how Auburn’s defense having issues, but there is one exception in DT Nick Fairley. Although he’s taken some deserved criticism for several dirty plays on UGA’s Murray a few weeks ago, there’s no denying that he’s been the SEC’s premier playmaker on the defensive side of the ball this year.
Alabama had better account for him and have two men on him without exception. If not, Mr. Fairley will be getting know Alabama QB Greg McElroy early and often.
We mentioned Alabama’s losses to South Carolina and LSU on the road, but we should note that the Crimson Tide is unbeaten in six home games at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Not only that, but ‘Bama has compiled a lucrative 5-1 spread record with the lone ‘non-cover’ coming in a 23-10 win over Ole Miss as a 20-point ‘chalk.’
Before discussing Alabama at greater length, let’s bring veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe into the conversation. On Wednesday, I asked Iskoe for his thoughts on the game.
“I’m going to play Auburn,” Iskoe said. “Back three or four weeks ago, I felt like this was a suspect unbeaten team, but they no longer have the look of a suspect team at all. And the entire Cam Newton Saga seems to have motivated them and I also think that being an underdog this week adds even more incentive. As the underdog, the pressure is off Auburn and I think it’ll play loose and play extremely well on Friday.”
While AU had an open date following its win over Georgia, Alabama is coming off a 63-7 home win over Ga. State as a 45-point favorite last Thursday. McElroy threw a pair of TD passes, while Mark Ingram rushed for 86 yards and one TD on just 12 carries.
Ingram hasn’t been able to duplicate his Heisman numbers of 2009, but he’s still rushed for 780 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. Ingram gets help carrying the load from Trent Richardson, who rested his sore injured leg against Ga. St. Nevertheless, Richardson (634 rushing yards, nine TDs combined) will play in the Iron Bowl.
When these bitter rivals met last year on The Plains, Auburn nearly played the spoiler role to perfection. However, McElroy came of age in a long, game-winning drive at crunch time. His four-yard TD pass to Roy Upchurch with 1:24 remaining lifted ‘Bama to a 26-21 win, but Auburn took the cash as a 10-point home underdog.
The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Auburn, 4-3 in its home games. As for Alabama, it has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3-1 overall, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in its five road assignments.
CBS will provide television coverage Friday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Auburn had won six in a row over ‘Bama in the head-to-head series until the Tide prevailed the last two seasons, including a 36-0 clubbing in Tuscaloosa two year ago that sent Tommy Tuberville to his pink slip.
McElroy has a 17/5 TD-INT ratio this year.
McElroy’s favorite target is junior WR Julio Jones, who has a career-high 65 receptions for 885 yards and seven touchdowns. Jones’ size and athleticism will be a huge matchup problem for Auburn’s mediocre secondary.
During the Paul Howard Show in Las Vegas on Wednesay afternoon, Paul asked me what I thought would happen if Alabama won a very close game over Auburn and then the Tigers bounced back and blew out South Carolina next week at the Ga. Dome. In that scenario, did I think Auburn could get to the BCS Championship Game ahead of Boise St. or TCU? My reply was this: “No, but only because South Carolina is a three-loss team. In a different year if the SEC East was represented by a one-loss squad whether it be Florida, South Carolina or whoever, then it would be different. Then a blowout win over a one-loss Florida team might bolster Auburn’s resume enough to lift it back into that conversation. But not this season.”
vegasinsider.com
Auburn Tigers look to defy odds at Alabama
By: Adam Markowitz
The Iron Bowl is one of the most fierce games in the entire nation, as two SEC West rivals collide in a game that quite often has implications both on the conference stage and the National Championship picture.
This year, we already know that the Auburn Tigers are two wins away from playing in the BCS Championship Game, and this is their biggest test left on the schedule. The Alabama Crimson Tide aren't playing for a title, but they are playing for the pride of beating their arch rivals for the third straight season and could be playing for a spot in a BCS bowl game if the chips fall properly over the course of the next two weekends.
All talk about Auburn football begins with the play of QB Cam Newton. Discussions about NCAA allegations aside, Newton is the pride and joy of the school, and he is starting to put together a season that looks awfully like the one that QB Vince Young had with the Texas Longhorns.
A dual threat on the ground and through the air, Newton has thrown for 2,038 yards and rushed for 1,297 more. He has 21 TDs in the air and 17 more on the ground. Just like Young, he is leading a team that many consider to be the second best in the nation, and he is tearing through a schedule that is chock-full of potential piranhas.
Young won the National Championship that year by beating the unbeaten Pac-10 team, the USC Trojans. If Newton can clear these next two tough hurdles, he'll be leading Auburn against another unbeaten Pac-10 team in all likelihood, the Oregon Ducks.
There are two major questions about the Tigers this year that really have yet to be answered. The first is whether or not this defense is going to come back to bite them where the sun don't shine. Allowing 355.7 YPG and 24.9 PPG is just too many for a team for a team that is contending for a title most seasons, and many think that this will be the downfall of the squad.
The second concern is the fact there really hasn't been much of a road schedule to discuss. The toughest road test of the year to date came at the Mississippi State Bulldogs, where the Tigers escaped with a 17-14 victory before we really knew that either team was going to be all that special. It was one of two SEC road games that ended with Auburn winning by three points, the other coming at the Kentucky Wildcats. The Ole Miss Rebels provided no real test.
Playing in Tuscaloosa will clearly be the biggest hurdle of the year.
The Crimson Tide fell victim to circumstance this year, as they had to take on a gauntlet of teams that were coming off of their midseason bye weeks. Both the LSU Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks tripped them up, and now they are faced with the likelihood of a second-tier bowl game the year after their National Championship run.
Statistically speaking, this is still one of the best teams in America. Alabama has an experienced offense with names like QB Greg McElroy, WR Julio Jones, RB Trent Richardson and RB Mark Ingram, and its defense ranks No. 3 in the land in scoring at 12.8 PPG.
Popular thought suggests that the Crimson Tide are going to roll in this game to take away the National Championship dreams of their arch rivals. We aren't so certain that's the case, though. It almost seems like a contrarian thought to think that Newton can topple the Tide, but we have seen some special players before, and this is clearly a special, special player.
Newton's speed single-handedly beat the Bayou Bengals this year, and he might be able to do the same thing on Friday night in Tuscaloosa. That said, we'll take all 4 ½ points given to us on the NCAA football odds that you can find at a plethora of sports books.
Game of the day: Auburn at Alabama
By Nick Parsons
For the second year in a row, the Iron Bowl has implications that go way beyond instate bragging rights.
In 2009, Auburn failed to play spoiler on Alabama’s road to the national championship. This year, their roles are reversed with the Crimson Tide aiming to ruin Auburn’s dream season. It’s safe to say that this is one of the more important games of the college football season.
Why Auburn will cover
This isn’t something you hear too often from the No. 2 team in the nation, but Auburn has been undervalued all season and having it listed as a 4-point dog is an early Christmas gift. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in SEC play this season and have been covering spreads by an average of 8.5 points.
In recent years, they have done well against the spread versus Alabama, covering in four of the last five Iron Bowls. This includes last year’s 26-21 loss to the eventual National Champions, but they still managed to beat the 10-point spread.
Add those stats in with the Cam Newton / Gus Malzahn factor. It’s been a match made in heaven between the junior QB and the second-year offensive coordinator, who have the team scoring 42.8 points per game.
Newton has already proved he can win under pressure, going through a tough SEC schedule with no losses and staying focused in his last game against Georgia considering all the off-field drama that the program was dealing with.
Expect the drama to escalate even further with the hype surrounding the Iron Bowl, but Malzahn will ensure that his QB and the rest of his guys on offense maintain their focus and keep up their up-tempo pace that has frustrated opponents all season long.
In other Tigers news, Auburn DL Mike Blanc and DE Michael Goggans will only be suspended for the first half.
Why Alabama will cover
Believe it or not, ruining Auburn’s shot at a national title would, for some Crimson Tide fans, eclipse their win over Texas last year. That is how much Alabama hates Auburn.
One important factor to keep in mind is that the Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is simply a different team at home, with both of its losses coming on the road. In fact, the last time the Crimson Tide hosted Auburn at Bryant Denney they blew them out 36-0.
Auburn has also seemed vulnerable when dealing with tough defenses. Louisiana State did a good job of keeping the Tigers well below their season scoring average. Alabama’s defense is just as talented, (if not better) than LSU’s.
The key will be to contain Newton, and the Tide have done well against two teams that had similar offenses in Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Mind you, their talent is not on par with Auburn, but they got live game-time reps and the schemes were perfectly executed, holding both teams to 10 points each. Also remember that they did a good job against Tim Tebow in last year’s SEC title game.
The Crimson Tide are favorites for a reason and they have the experience and motivation to not only make their fans happy, but make fans in Boise Idaho happy as well.
Notes on the total
The total opened at 58 and has moved to 59 at most books. Auburn has been a good over bet this season going 7-4 on totals and it is currently riding a three-game over streak.
However, if you are expecting a close contest, keep in mind that Auburn games that have been decided by a touchdown or less have gone under three out of five times. Also, the over hasn’t hit in the Iron Bowl since 2005.
Consensus opinion is pretty much split on the total, meaning that oddsmakers have done their job.
Weather
Chilly and wet is what players will have to deal with. Highs of 50 are expected with northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph. There is a 70 percent chance of rain by kickoff.
Arizona at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know
Two more teams stand between Oregon and a chance at its first national championship. Neither will be easy.
Oregon hosts No. 20 Arizona in a Pac-10 contest Friday night. The Ducks are ranked No. 1 in the nation and are on top the crucial BCS standings.
Odds
Books opened with the Ducks set as 17.5-point favorites. That number climbed to its current standing while the total has also risen from 61.5 to 63.
Oregon is 6-3-1 ATS with a 7-3 over/under record. Arizona boasts a 5-5 ATS mark with a 6-4 ATS record.
Duck and cover
Oregon also knows all that could fall apart with a loss on Friday.
The Ducks survived a bit of a scare in their last outing when California shut down the nation’s top-ranked offense in a 15-13 nail-biter.
Cal took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on Shane Vereen’s 1-yard run. While falling behind is nothing new to Oregon, failing to respond in a heartbeat surely was.
Oregon took an 8-7 lead late in the second quarter when Cliff Harris returned a Cal punt 64 yards for a touchdown. The Ducks opted for the two-point conversion and got one on a run by Dion Jordan.
It appeared the rout was on but the Ducks’ star-studded backfield of LaMichael James and Darron Thomas never got on track. James finished with 91 yards on 29 carries and Thomas, the sleek quarterback finished 15 of 29 passing for 155 yards.
James is listed as probable for Friday’s game with a nagging leg injury.
He did throw a crucial touchdown pass to Jeffrey Maehl in the third quarter. The 29-yard strike was the last score of the game for Oregon, which actually put the ball in the freeze at the end of the game.
Cal got a fumble recovery in the end zone to cut the lead to 15-13 and went for the tying conversion but a pass failed.
While many figured the Ducks were due for a lethargic performance, the close call didn’t hurt them in the polls or the BCS standings.
Oregon (10-0 7-0 Pac-10) can rest assured that if it runs the table it will earn a berth in the BCS championship game even though there are four undefeated teams in the country.
Cat scratch fever
Arizona (7-3, 4-3) has slipped from its once lofty perch in the Pac-10. After moving into the top 10 in the national polls with a suffocating defense, the Wildcats were humbled by Stanford 42-17 before losing to USC 24-21 at home.
Arizona is currently projected to meet Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl if it can maintain its third spot in the Pac-10. That won’t be easy as the Wildcats will be tested Friday and again in its season finale against a desperate Arizona State team.
The Wildcats hope to have running back Nic Grigsby back in the lineup. Grigsby missed last game will an ankle injury. Backup quarterback Matt Scott is out with a wrist injury.
Arizona has won the last two meetings between the two teams in high-scoring affairs, including a 44-41 victory last year.
Trends
- Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Weather
The forecast is calling for showers at Autzen Stadium with a 70 percent chance of rain. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 40s with wind blowing across the field (SSW) at speeds of up to 20 mph.
Boise State at Nevada: What Bettors Need to Know
All the fuss being made about whether or not Boise State will end up in a BCS bowl overlooks one important element.
The Broncos haven’t even clinched the Western Athletic Conference title yet.
No. 3 Boise State will get the chance to wrap up the WAC crown on Friday night when it visits No. 19 Nevada in a pivotal conference contest at Mackay Stadium in Reno.
Odds
This spread opened at 14.5 point but has been bet down past two touchdowns to its current standing. As for the total, the number has stayed put at its original post.
Cry Wolf
The Broncos (10-0, 6-0 WAC, 8-2 ATS) are looking for their 25th consecutive victory but could receive a test from the Wolf Pack (10-1, 5-1, 5-6 ATS), whose only blemish is a close loss at Hawaii in mid-October.
If not for that stumble, the meeting that has been highly anticipated by Nevada and its fans would be between two unbeaten squads.
The Wolf Pack, who have lost 10 straight contests to Boise State, are just as loaded on offense as Boise State. The problem is that the Broncos’ defense is superior to Nevada’s unit.
Score more
Both Boise State and Nevada have scored 51 or more points on five occasions this season. But while the Broncos rank second nationally in both scoring defense (11.5 points per game) and total defense (229.2 yards per game), Nevada is 38th in scoring defense (21.7) and 67th in total defense (374.6) nationally.
Nevada’s bread-and-butter is the running game with its diverse Pistol offense. The Wolf Pack are fourth nationally with an average of 304.4 rushing yards per game. But Boise State excels at stopping the run, leading the nation at 72.3 yards per outing.
Nevada’s Vai Taua leads the WAC with 1,241 yards and quarterback Colin Kaepernick has rushed for 984 yards. Both players have rushed for 16 touchdowns.
Taua has 24 career 100-yard rushing games while Kaepernick has thrown for 2,412 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. The Nevada quarterback has been intercepted six times.
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is a better passer than Kaepernick and gets to go up against Nevada’s shaky pass defense, which ranks 103th nationally at 249.9 yards per game.
Moore leads the nation in passing efficiency and has thrown 28 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. Moore’s favorite target is Titus Young, who has caught 55 passes for 988 yards.
Boise State ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 47.9 points per game.
News and notes
The Broncos are coming off an impressive 51-0 beat-down of Fresno State in which they allowed just 125 yards. The shutout was Boise State’s third of the season.
Nevada defeated New Mexico State 52-6 last week to notch a 10-win season for the first time since joining the major college ranks in 1992.
Wolf Pack defensive end Dontay Moch is having a big season with 19.5 tackles for loss, including eight sacks. Moch has 60.5 career tackles for loss.
Trends
- The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Wolf Pack.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in November.
- Broncos are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Friday's Best Games
Underdog covered five of last seven West Virginia-Pitt games, with total in last three averaging 30.3. Last three series games were decided by 4 or less points. Pitt won four of last five games, covered last three games as a home favorite. Mountaineers are 2-2 on road, with average total in the four games, 34.8. Last five West Virginia games stayed under the total. Big East home favorites of 8 or less points are 2-8 against the spread.
Auburn is 4-point dog despite being unbeaten; they allowed 31+ points in four of last five games vs I-A opponents; they're 3-0 on road, with a couple wins by 3 points-they're dog for first time this season. Alabama is 4-1 as home favorite this year; they were held to 21 points in both its losses this season. Six of last seven Auburn games went over total. Bama won last two series games, 36-0/26-21, after losing previous six in series.
Underdogs covered four of last five Arizona-Oregon games, with average total in last three, 81.0; they lost five of last six trips to Eugene, losing by 10-14-38-4-7 points. Ducks are 4-0 as home favorite this year, with average win by 59-15 score. Arizona lost its last two games, giving up an average of 33 ppg; only one of their three losses is by more than 3 pts. Pac-10 double digit favorites are 4-8-1 against spread, 3-3 at home.
Boise State won last 10 games vs Nevada (8-2 vs spread); they've won last four visits here by average score of 45-17. Favorites covered last five times Broncos visited Reno. Wolf Pack's only loss was 27-21 at Hawaii; they turned ball over four times (-3), were down 17-0 at half. Boise won its four road games this year by average score of 52-5, but none of teams they visited are any good. Four of last five Boise games stayed under.
Tips and Trends
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
TIGERS: Auburn has dealt with turmoil and the spotlight over the past month. Despite the pressure, they simply keep winning football games. Auburn is a perfect 11-0 SU this season, including 3-0 SU on the road this year. The Tigers are 7-4 ATS this season, including ATS wins in 4 of their last 5 games. Today will be the first time this season Auburn will be the listed underdog. QB Cam Newton won't be able to win this game himself, not against this Alabama defense. Newton is the likely Heisman Trophy winner this season, as he has accumulated more than 3,300 total YDS this season with 38 TD's. In the SEC, those numbers are simply staggering. Defensively, the Tigers have allowed 24 PTS or more to 5 of their previous 6 opponents. In order to keep their perfect season alive, Auburn will have to play their best defensive game of the season today. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Auburn is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Auburn is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 3-9 ATS last 12 road games overall.
Over is 5-1 last 6 conference games.
Key Injuries - DL Mike Blanc (suspension) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
CRIMSON TIDE: (-4, O/U 58) Alabama has been all but eliminated in the BCS Championship race, but they still have plenty of say in who does make it. With a SU win tonight, the Crimson Tide can knock Auburn out of the top 2 ranked teams in the BCS. Alabama is 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS overall this season. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year. Alabama is just 1-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Alabama has only allowed 1 of their previous 5 opponents to score more than 10 PTS against them. For the season, the Crimson Tide are giving up just 12.8 PPG, 2nd best in the nation. Watching this impressive defense go up against Cam Newton will be worth the price of admission alone. QB Greg McElroy has thrown for nearly 2,400 YDS and 17 TD's this year. McElroy is the leader of a balanced offense that is averaging 35.3 PPG, 20th best in the country. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Alabama is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 16-6-1 last 23 conference games overall.
Key Injuries - RB Trent Richardson (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)
Boise St. Broncos at Nevada Wolfpack
BRONCOS: (-14, O/U 68) Boise St. is inching closer and closer to perfection, as they are a perfect 10-0 SU this season. Boise St. is jockeying for BCS position, as they are trying to finish ahead of TCU for the critical #3 spot in the BCS. A loss by either Oregon or Auburn would more than likely put the Broncos in the BCS Championship game. Boise St. is also an impressive 8-2 ATS this year, with all but one of their games played as a double digit favorite. The Broncos are also a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road this season. QB Kellen Moore has been an outstanding leader of this balanced Broncos offense, as they rank in the top 20 both rushing and passing this year. Moore has thrown for nearly 2,500 YDS and 28 T's this season against only 5 INT's. Moore is quite likely to be a Heisman finalist this year. RB Doug Martin has rushed for a team high 938 YDS this season, including 9 TD's. The least talked about facet of Boise St. is their defense. This defense is stout and rugged, and they've held 3 teams scoreless this season. The Broncos are only allowing 11.5 PPG this season, 2nd best in the country. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Friday games overall. Denver is 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games following an ATS win.
Broncos are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games overall.
Under is 6-1 last 7 conference games.
Key Injuries - LB Byron Hout (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 38 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
WOLFPACK: Tonight's game is arguably the biggest game in school history. Nevada is nationally ranked and have a chance to earn a share of the WAC Championship with a SU win tonight. The Wolfpack are 10-1 SU, including a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year. Tonight is Senior Night, which will make this an emotional night considering how many Seniors play a key role on this Wolfpack team. Nevada has only been an underdog once this season, and they beat California SU at home earlier this season. The Wolfpack is just 2-5 ATS in their past 7 games, but the majority of those games came as a large favorite. Duel threat QB Colin Kaepernick has been amazing this season, as he's totaled 3,400 YDS this season with 35 TD's this year. Kaepernick is 16 rushing YDS away from having the distinction of throwing for more than 2,000 YDS and rushing for more than 1,000 YDS in the same season. Kaepernick will be playing his final home game of his career tonight. Nevada averages 44.1 PPG this season, 4th best in the nation. In order for the Wolfpack to pull off the upset tonight, their defense will have to play their best game of the season. Only 20 PTS separate these 2 teams over their past 3 meetings. The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in November. Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games overall. The Wolf Pack are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Nevada is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
Wolfpack are 8-3 ATS last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - WR Chris Wellington (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 23
So it's almost certain that Auburn is gonna play in the BCS championship game. But the question is what if Oregon looses against Arizona or next week in the Civil War game; who will play Auburn?? TCU?? Boise??? Wisconsin??