What Bettors Need To Know: Friday's NCAAF Action
By Nick Parsons
For those needing their college football fix before a busy Saturday, here’s a quick look at the two feature games Friday night.
Western Michigan Broncos at Central Michigan Chippewas (-3.5, 51.5)
Why Western Michigan will cover
Despite the fact that they have only had one win in their last three games, the Broncos seem to be rounding into form. One of those defeats was on the road at South Bend, while the other one was decided by just a single touchdown last week against Northern Illinois, the top team in the MAC West.
Central Michigan has won the last four contests in this series, but remember that was with Dan LeFevour at quarterback and coach Butch Jones on the sidelines (LeFevour was injured in 2008 and Jones was only coach in the last three, for those of you fact checkers paying attention). The drop off from losing those two staples is apparent with CMU having a horrible 2-7 season.
Also with the line at -3.5, the betting community is expecting a close game, that will surely add stress to CMU backers as the Chippewas have an abysmal 40 percent field-goal percentage
Why Central Michigan will cover
Last month wasn’t pretty for the Chippewas or their backers. Central Michigan went 0-5 in October and failed to cover the spread in each one of those games. With that said, they have everything to gain and nothing to lose with this instate rivalry. Weird results can pop up when motivation is its peak.
It’s Senior Day with the WMU game serving as the last home game of the season. Leading that charge will be Nick Bellore. The senior linebacker goes into his final game in front of his classmates and friends with 451 career tackles, which is the most of any active player in the FBS.
Home-field advantage will be a key factor with the home side winning 16 of the last 20 games in this rivalry.
Central Florida Knights at Houston Cougars (+1.5, 61.5)
Why Central Florida will cover
There isn’t a better cover team in the nation than Central Florida. In spite of its overall and ATS record, UCF still remains one of the most underrated teams in the nation. The Knights’ two losses were to North Carolina State and Kansas State, both decent BCS teams, and they have been dominating Conference USA foes, outscoring them 167-70,
Central Florida’s ninth-ranked defense is huge part of that success and it will surely be up to the challenge of going against a Houston Cougar offense that is averaging 41.6 points per game. The toughest defense that Houston has faced this season was Mississippi State, which ranks a couple notches below UCF at 34.
The Knights will also look to attack the Cougars on offense with the run game. Houston is giving up 194.2 yards on the ground which ranks 98th in the nation.
Why Houston will cover
The Cougars finally come home after a tough three-game road stretch, where they almost went undefeated. They only lost by three to Rice and then went on to blowout SMU and Memphis.
The team has been through a lot this season, losing both their top two quarterbacks for the season. However, freshman David Piland has come in for the rescue and has adjusted to the offense. The Southlake Carroll alum (powerhouse Texas H.S. that produced Greg McElroy and Chase Daniel) is coming off one of the best performance of his short career, throwing for 292 yards and five touchdowns against Memphis
And as is always the case in nationally televised in-conference matchups, home advantage will be key. This is a team that is finally clicking and will be out to avenge last year’s 37-32 loss to UCF.
Tale of the tape: Central Florida at Houston
TGIF! Not only is there some Friday night football on tap, but it’s a matchup of Conference USA heavyweights late in the season.
Central Florida Knights at Houston Cougars (+1.5, 62)
Offense:
It’s been a growing season for freshman quarterback Jeff Godfrey. The former Miami Central star has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 1,006 yards this season with four touchdowns against four interceptions. Godfrey also has been good at extending drives with his legs, running for 394 yards and five scores.
Behind Godfrey, the team is averaging a solid 32.9 points per game, but is 61st in total yards (376.5) and 92nd nationally in passing yards (176.6). The team relies on a strong rushing game led by tailback Ronnie Weaver (638 yards, 10 TDs) as the team is 22nd nationally in rushing at nearly 200 yards per game.
Meantime, Houston puts up 41.6 points per game, the 8th most in the country.
Houston quarterback David Piland was thrust into a starting job when the team’s top-two signal callers went down with season-ending injuries. The 19-year-old, however, has responded by posting solid numbers. Through four games, he has completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,108 yards with 11 touchdown against three interceptions and has been sacked only twice.
Even with Piland at quarterback, the Cougars still are averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game, the 13th-best mark in the country.
Piland also has gotten plenty of support from junior running back Bryce Beall. The 5-foot-11, 209-pounder has gained 638 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 113 carries. Beall, though, is nursing a knee injury and while likely to play against Central Florida, he will be less than 100 percent.
Edge: Houston
Defense:
This has been the biggest strength for Central Florida. The Knights are ninth nationally in total yards allowed (279.9), 11th in points given up (16.5), 13th in rushing yards allowed (102.6) and 16th in passing yards given (177.2) per game.
Houston, however, is the polar opposite. The Cougars are more like a satin sheet than a steel curtain on defense. The hosts are 79th in the country in total defense, yielding a stunning 391.1 yards per game. That is mostly due to poor tackling and being unable to get off blocks as teams are running over the
Cougars for an average of 194.2 rushing yards per game, the 98th-highest total in the country.
The Cougars also are allowing a whopping 28 points per game.
In a 37-32 win by the Knights last year, the Cougars did keep the game close by holding Central Florida to an average of just 3.0 yards per rush.
Edge: Central Florida
Special teams:
This is another strong area for the Knights. Central Florida is 26th in the country in punt returns (11.81 yards per attempt) and 11th in kickoff run backs (25.78).
The team also is good at forcing long field goals, as opponents are making a meager 33 percent of their kicks against the Knights, the third-lowest total in the country.
Houston is pretty mediocre on special teams, only really excelling at one thing: blocking kicks. The Cougars have blocked three kicks this season, the third-highest mark in the country. Houston also is 13th nationally in punt returns, averaging 15.2 yards per attempt.
Edge: Central Florida
From the files of the beat reporters
"From what we've watched, he's doing a good job now. He struggled a little bit when he first got in, but you know he's got a couple of games under his belt and he's doing a lot of the same things [as Case Keenum.] He delivers a great ball. … Makes it where the receivers can go and make plays." -- UCF senior defensive end Bruce Miller on Houston quarterback David Piland.
"If they want to run the ball, we've got to get in there and blow stuff up, disrupt that. It's going to come down to toughness. We've just got to be ready for a tough, physical game." -- UH linebacker Matt Nicholson on stopping the UCF rushing game.
Final score prediction:
Central Florida 36, Houston 28
Tips and Trends
Western Michigan Bronces at Central Michigan Chippewas
BRONCOS: Western Michigan has alternated wins and losses for nearly the entire season, as they stand 3-5 SU and 3-3-2 ATS this year. The Broncos have their best chance in quite some time to beat Central Michigan, as they have lost each of their past 4 meetings against them. Western Michigan is 1-2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Alex Carder directs a high powered passing attack that is averaging nearly 299 YPG through the air, 14th best in the nation. Carder has thrown for nearly 2,300 YDS this season, including 18 TD's. The Broncos have earned 2 wins on the road this season, both coming in league play. If the Broncos can get any defensive effort tonight, they will beat their league rivals. Currently, Western Michigan is allowing 27.5 PPG this year, 75th best in the nation. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Western Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the listed road underdog.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - RB Antoin Scriven (neck) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27
CHIPPEWAS: (-3,5, O/U 51.5) Central Michigan has lost their past 6 games, something this Central Michigan just isn't accustomed to. The Chippewas only have 1 win this year against FBS competition, and that win was over a team that is currently 1-8 SU this season. Central Michigan is 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS overall this year. The Chippewas will be playing their final home game of the year, where they are 0-3 ATS this year against FBS opponents. In fact, the Chippewas have lost all 3 home games SU against FBS opponents as a double digit favorite. QB Ryan Radcliff leads a passing offense that is averaging 265 YPG, 27th best in the nation. Radcliff has thrown for nearly 2,350 YDS this season with 12 TD's this year. Defensively, the Chippewas are allowing 23.3 PPG, 55th best in the nation. The Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Chippewas are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Central Michigan is 19-7-2 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Chippewas are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games overall.
Chippewas are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Under is 4-0 last 4 conference games.
Key Injuries - WR Taylor Bradley (undisclosed) is questionable.
Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Central Florida Knights at Houston Cougars
KNIGHTS: (-2, O/U 61.5) Central Florida might be one of the best teams you know nothing about, as they are an impressive 6-2 SU this year. The Knights don't play like a mid major, as they are a physical group that plays demanding defense and wears you down as the game progresses. Even in defeat, the Knights play tough as they've lost both games by a combined total of 11 points. UCF is 4-0 SU in league play this year, as they control their own destiny. Defensively, only 2 teams have scored more than 17 PTS against the Knights. Even after allowing 35 PTS to East Carolina in their last game, they are 11th in the nation in allowing just 16.5 PPG this season. RB Ronnie Weaver has rushed for 638 YDS and 10 TD's this season for the Knights. UCF has scored at least 35 PTS in each of their psat 4 games, and will look to keep that going against Houston tonight. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. Central Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Central Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in November. The Knights are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. The Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. Central Florida is 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
Knights are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-0 last 7 conference games.
Key Injuries - RB Brynn Harvey (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 30
COUGARS: Houston has recovered quite well from the loss of QB Case Keenum, as they performed very well of late to stay right in the thick of the C-USA conference race. Houston is 5-3 SU this season, including 4-1 SU in conference play this year. Houston has revenge on their minds tonight, as they lost 32-37 SU last year to Central Florida. The Cougars have scored a combined 101 PTS over their past 2 games, both SU and ATS wins. Houston is 3-1 SU at home this year, and haven't played there in nearly a month thanks to 3 straight road contests. QB David Piland has filled in nicely at QB for Houston, as he's thrown 11 TD's in his past 4 games for the Cougars. Piland leads an offensive attack that is averaging 41.6 PPG this year, 6th best in the nation. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games overall. The Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Houston is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass.
Cougars are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as an underdog. Over is 10-2 last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Key Injuries - RB Bryce Beall (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 33 (SIDE of the Day)
Friday Preview
Central Michigan won four of last five games vs Western Michigan, with Broncos losing last two visits here, 38-28 (-1.5)/31-7 (+6). Broncos are 2-5 vs I-A teams, routing lowly Akron/Ball State. Chippewas lost their last five games (were favored in three of five). MAC home favorites of less than 9 points are 2-4 vs spread this season. Last three Central games stayed under the total- they're 0-3 as a home favorite this season.
Home side won all three Central Florida-Houston games; Knights lost in only visit here, 51-31; average total in series meetings is 70.3. UCF won its last four games, converting 31-50 on 3rd down; they're 5-1 as a fave, 2-0 on road, winning away games by 14-35-21 points. Houston is using its #3 QB, but scored 101 points in winning last two games, both on the road. Last three Central Florida games went over the total.