Boise State Broncos vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Boise State Broncos and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Joe Aillet Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 21½-point favorites versus the Bulldogs, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.
Kellen Moore threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another to lead Boise State to its eighth straight win, 45-7 over San Jose State in Week 9.
The Broncos covered the 36.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 54.
Louisiana Tech gave up a last-minute touchdown to lose 35-35 to Idaho at the Kibbie Dome in Week 9.
Louisiana Tech covered as a 2.5-point home underdog while the final score played over the 57-point total.
Current streak:
Boise State has won 8 straight games.
Louisiana Tech has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Boise State: 8-0 SU, 6-1 ATS
Louisiana Tech: 3-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Boise State most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 10-0
Louisiana Tech most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana Tech
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Louisiana Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boise State
Louisiana Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
Louisiana Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
Next up:
Boise State home to Idaho, Saturday, November 14
Louisiana Tech at LSU, Saturday, November 14
Boise St. at La. Tech
By Brian Edwards
During the VI Handicapping Seminar at Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas back in August, James Manos and I both felt like this game might be Boise State’s toughest test, at least in WAC play. That’s because this is a difficult travel spot for the Broncos.
Chris Petersen’s team is playing its third road game in four weeks. BSU played at Tulsa on Oct. 14 and went all the way to Hawaii on Oct. 24. The Broncos were back at home on the smurf turf last week, capturing a 45-7 victory over San Jose St. as 36 ½-point favorites. And now they venture from Boise to the Deep South of Ruston, LA. (To be clear, I don't necessarily look at this game as nearly as formidable a task for Boise as I did in August, but we'll get to that due to a rash of La. Tech injuries.)
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Boise State (8-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) as a 21-point favorite with a total of 53. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Broncos favored by 21 with a total of 50. For bettors smelling an upset, the Las Vegas Hilton is offering a plus-1100 return for La. Tech to win outright (risk $100 to win $1,100).
Boise St. has been dominant all year, starting with its 19-8 win over Oregon as a three-point home favorite in Week 1. Since then, the Broncos have won six of their seven games by 17 points or more. They have covered the spread in every game except one, a 28-21 win at Tulsa as 9 ½-point road favorites.
Sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore has been nothing short of sensational, completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,905 yards with an incredible 24/2 touchdown-interception ratio. Moore has a pair of speedy wideouts in Austin Pettis and Titus Young, both of whom have 41 catches apiece.
Pettis has accounted for 553 receiving yards and nine touchdown grabs, while Young has 495 receiving yards and seven TD catches. Moore also has the benefit of a big-time running back in Jeremy Avery, who has been a more-than-capable replacement for the departed Ian Johnson. Avery has 636 rushing yards on 112 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
Dating back to Dan Hawkins’ tenure, BSU has always had a dynamic offense. But the difference between the ’09 Broncos and former squads is clearly the play of their defense. Although this unit gave up 34 points to Fresno St., it has otherwise been outstanding. In fact, the other scoring outputs allowed by Boise St. have been as follows: 8, 0, 14, 16, 21, 9 and 7.
Louisiana Tech (3-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) has been a major disappointment in Derek Dooley’s third year on campus. The Bulldogs started out 2008 by beating Mississippi St. at home, but this year began with a 37-14 loss at Auburn. They also went down at Navy the following week by a 32-14 count.
I backed La. Tech for a winner in its 27-6 home win over Hawaii in a Wednesday game back on Sept. 30. Since then, however, the Bulldogs have lost three of their four games, including last week’s 35-34 loss at Idaho. They blew a pair of 14-point leads and a 13-point cushion in the defeat to the Vandals.
On the opening play of the final stanza, La. Tech went in front 34-21 on a one-yard TD run by Myke Compton. However, Matt Nelson’s PAT was off the mark and that would come back to haunt the Bulldogs because Idaho answered with 14 straight points to garner the outright victory. Nevertheless, La. Tech backers cashed tickets catching 2 ½ points.
The biggest concern for Dooley has to be the health of his two most dynamic playmakers, RB Daniel Porter and WR Phillip Livas. Both players are listed as “questionable.” Porter left last week’s game with a concussion, while Livas is nursing an ankle sprain.
Porter has a team-high 640 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 5.2 YPC. Livas, who is also a special-teams ace in the return game, has 19 receptions for 205 yards. Also, starting MLB Adrien Cole is listed as “doubtful” after suffering a concussion at Idaho, while OLB Brian White (ankle) is “questionable.”
During Petersen’s four-year tenure, BSU owns a 10-8 spread record as a road favorite. La. Tech is in its first home underdog spot of the year, but we should note that the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home ‘dogs on Dooley’s watch since 2007.
When these teams squared off on the blue carpet in ’08, Boise St. easily took the cash in a 38-3 home win as a 24-point ‘chalk.’ In BSU’s last trip to Ruston, it won a 45-31 decision but La. Tech took the money as a 15-point home underdog. The Bulldogs have lost seven in a row to the Broncos by an average of 26 points per game.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com.
(5) Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at Louisiana Tech (3-5, 4-3 ATS)
The Broncos will try to remain on track for BCS bowl consideration when they travel to Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, La., for a Western Athletic Conference matchup with Louisiana Tech.
Fifth-ranked Boise State and sixth-ranked TCU – both undefeated squads from non-BCS conferences – are battling for an at-large berth to BCS bowl game, so even if the Broncos avoid an upset over their final five games, there’s no guarantee they’ll qualify for one of college football’s marquee postseason contests. The Broncos (3-0 SU and ATS in the WAC) trail Nevada by half a game coming into tonight, while Louisiana Tech sits in fifth at 2-3 (3-2 ATS).
Boise State has outscored its opponents 99-16 in the last two weeks, winning 54-9 in Hawaii on Oct. 24 and cashing as a 25-point favorite, and then stomping San Jose State 45-7 on Saturday, narrowly covering as a 36½-point chalk. The Broncos are third in the country in scoring, putting up 41 points a game, while ranking 11th defensively in points allowed (13.6 ppg) and rushing yards allowed (97.9 ypg). Sophomore QB Kellen Moore leads the offense, completing an amazing 67 percent of his throws for 1,905 yards, 24 TDs and just two INTs.
The Bulldogs have dropped two straight heartbreakers, falling 23-21 at Utah State on Oct. 24 as a 1½-point underdog, then losing at Idaho on Saturday 35-34, but cashing as a three-point underdog. Louisiana Tech has trouble defensively, allowing 23.8 ppg and 181.9 rushing ypg overall, but those numbers have dropped to 21.7 ppg and 121.7 rushing ypg over the last three weeks. Also, the Bulldogs’ defense has been rock solid in three home games, yielding just 8.7 points, 238 total yards and 76 rushing yards per contest. Meanwhile, the offense puts up 40 points and 515.7 total yards per game (284 rushing ypg) at home.
Boise State has won seven straight in this rivalry, cashing in four of the last five, all as a favorite, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Louisiana Tech, as the home team has cashed in five of the last six. Last year in Boise, the Broncos rolled 38-3 as a 24-point home chalk.
Despite being heavy favorites in most of their games, the Broncos are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 18-6-1 overall, 12-3-1 in WAC games, 8-2 on the road (3-1 this year), 9-2 as a road favorite, 11-3 on Friday, 38-18-2 against teams with a losing record and 46-20-1 after a spread-cover. Louisiana Tech has alternated spread-covers in its last seven lined games and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a ‘dog and 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 after a spread-cover. However, the Bulldogs are also on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 after a straight-up loss.
The Broncos have topped the total in four of five road games and four of five WAC contests, but the under has been the play in nine of Boise’s last 13 after a spread-cover and four straight on the road against teams with a losing record. The Bulldogs are on “over” runs of 5-2 at home, 5-1 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 in November and 4-2 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
What Bettors Need to Know: Broncos at Bulldogs
By Lee Kostroski
Line Movement
This one opened with Boise as 20.5-point chalk. It has moved just a bit to -21 at most places. There are also a few spots that have jumped this off the key number to -21.5. The total opened at 50 and has stuck right there at most spots.
Weather
Talk about perfect football weather. That's what we'll have in Ruston, Louisiana on Friday night. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s at game time with little wind and no chance of precipitation.
BCS bowl bid?
The Broncos are fighting for shot at a BCS bowl. Not only do they need to keep winning, the Broncos also need to impress the pollsters with large margins.
They have done just that for most of the season. Their closest games were an opening day win over Oregon 19-8, and a 28-21 victory at Tulsa. Other than that, every win has been by at least 17 points. Take away those two games and this team is averaging 47 points per game and allowing just 13 ppg in its other six contests.
BSU's biggest nemesis this year might be another non-BCS team it doesn't even play. If the Horned Frogs win out and end the regular season on a perfect note, they just might trump Boise when it comes to BCS bowl selections.
Home sweet home
Louisiana Tech is a vastly different team depending on where the game is played. If it's at home, the team isn't bad. If it's on the road, well that's a different story.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 this year in Ruston and 0-5 when they have to travel. After last week's loss at Idaho, the Bulldogs are now just 5-24 straight up (SU) their last 29 road games. At home they are 16-7 SU since 2005, which is actually the third best mark in the WAC.
Tech dropped to 3-5 overall on the year after two narrow losses. Because of that, this is not only a big game for Boise's BCS hopes, but also for La Tech's postseason aspirations.
In order for the Bulldogs to qualify for a bowl game, they need to win three of their last four games. After this one they play at LSU and Fresno on back to back weekends.
The Bulldogs' offense may not be at full strength on Friday night. Leading rusher Daniel Porter (5.2 YPC) suffered a concussion last week at Idaho and is questionable. Also, receiver and kick return specialist, Phillip Livas injured his ankle and is also questionable. Livas leads the WAC in kick returns with a 30.2 average.
Long and winding road
This will be Boise's third long road trip in four weeks. The Broncs have logged a total of 11,000 frequent flyer miles in the last four weeks traveling to and back from Tulsa, Hawaii and now Louisiana. Fatigue might be an issue on Friday. Could that slow down the Boise onslaught? We'll have to wait and see.
History
These teams have faced off 10 times since 1980. Boise has now beaten the Bulldogs seven straight times (4-3 ATS). Those wins have come by an average of 25.7 ppg. The Broncos have out gained the Dogs in every time during that seven-game run by a total of 1104 yards (158 YPG). Last year's 38-3 Boise win was low scoring when compared to the series history. In the 10 meetings, these teams have combined to average 66.3 PPG. The winner has never scored less than 27 points.
Bottom Line
The Broncos have historically been a solid moneymaker as a large favorite. Boise is now 18-8-2 ATS dating back to the 2004 season When favored by three TDs or more. The Broncos are 3-1 in that role already this season. They are also 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a road favorite and 12-3-1 ATS their last 15 WAC games.
Dating back to 2006, La Tech has covered six straight times when tabbed as a home underdog. The Dogs are only 7-23 ATS the last 30 times the oddsmakers have made them a double-digit dog (0-2 ATS this year).
Tips and Trends
Boise State at Louisiana Tech
Boise State (-21, O/U 50.5): The undefeated Broncos have been one of the best pointspread teams through the years going 80-44 against the number during the past 10 plus seasons, including 6-1 this season. Boise State has covered eight of its last 10 road games. Kellen Moore ranks first in the nation in quarterback ratings at 171.0. He’s thrown 24 touchdowns, second-most in the Football Bowl Subdivision, while only being picked off twice. The Broncos are averaging 41 points per game, third-highest in the nation. Boise State also has an outstanding defense that has forced 19 turnovers. Boise State is giving up just 13.6 points per game, 11th-lowest in the country. The Broncos have defeated Louisiana Tech the past five times by margins of 35, 14, 41, 17 and 41 points. Moore passed for 325 yards and two touchdowns to lead Boise State past the Bulldogs, 38-3, last year at home.
Boise State is 38-18-2 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
The Broncos are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 Western Athletic Conference matchups.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 36
Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs have suffered tough defeats in each of the last two weeks, dropping their record to 3-5. Louisiana Tech lost 23-21 at Utah State two weeks ago and last week had to travel to Idaho where it lost 35-34 to the Vandals giving up the winning touchdown with 52 seconds left. The Bulldogs suffered two key injuries in that defeat as running back Daniel Porter and wide receiver Phillip Livas each left. Both are questionable for tonight’s contest. Porter leads the team in rushing, while Livas is third in receptions with 19 for 205 yards and is a top kick returner. The Bulldogs finished their game against Idaho playing five freshmen or sophomores at the skill positions. The Bulldogs have been out-gained by five of their seven FBS opponents. Louisiana Tech is tough at home winning 10 of its last 11 in Ruston.
The Bulldogs are 7-20 ATS as an underdog of 10 ½ points or more.
The Over has cashed 5 of the past six times the Bulldogs have been a home underdog.
Key Injuries - Running back Daniel Porter (upper body) is questionable.
Wide receiver Phillip Livas (leg) is questionable.
Linebacker Brian White (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 15 (OVER - Total of the Day)