Friday's College Action
By Chris David
Gamblers will get two opportunities to cash tickets on the college football gridiron this Friday, as the folks at ESPN offer up a televised double-header. Conference USA will represent three of the four schools on the docket, but the other team is arguably the best, No. 23 West Virginia.
The action starts at 7:00 p.m. EDT when then the Mountaineers visit Marshall for an intrastate battle. Then, another state-pride contest takes place when Houston meets UTEP in a conference clash.
Let’s take a closer look at the pair.
West Virginia at Marshall
Any gambler will tell you that laying double digits on the road isn’t always a smart approach, but sometimes its warranted and that could be the case tonight in this matchup. Most betting shops have West Virginia listed as a 12 ½-point favorite against Marshall and based on recent head-to-head history it definitely seems like a fair line.
Going back to 2006, West Virginia has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread against Marshall, notching victories by margins of 32, 25, 24 and 17.
Even though it’s fair to say that this WVU squad isn’t as good as the previous seasons, they do still boast some talent, how much is undetermined just yet. Running back Noel Devine is the featured player on offense and he showed that in last week’s 31-0 win over Coastal Carolina with 111 yards and one touchdown. Geno Smith is the new gunslinger and while he wasn’t tested, he managed to complete 20-of-27 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns. One thing different with Smith is that he’s not much of a runner, or at least not yet, carrying four times for six yards in last week’s contest.
Defensively, the Mountaineers did their part, holding Coastal Carolina to 186 yards and nine first downs. Most would expect a tougher test against the Thundering Herd but it’s hard to measure how good their unit is after watching them against Ohio State last Thursday.
The Buckeyes dominated to a 45-7 win in Columbus and held Marshall to 199 yards on offense and just 11 first downs. QB Brian Anderson saw most of the action and he completed 17-of-28 passes for 135 yards with an interception. The lone touchdown for the Herd came on a blocked field goal return.
Last year, WVU went 2-4 SU and 3-3 in road and neutral contests. And the school was 4-0 SU as a double-digit favorite, but only 1-3 versus the number. Marshall was 4-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home last season.
The total is ranging between 45 and 46 points at most books. Clear skies and temperatures in the low seventies are expected at kickoff.
UTEP at Houston
Revenge is a key factor in college football, especially when it’s against a conference opponent. Last year, Houston put itself on the map with back-to-back wins over Big 12 programs, Oklahoma State (45-35) and Texas Tech (29-28). Unfortunately, the Cougars were due for a letdown and they were caught one week later in El Paso.
UTEP embarrassed Houston 58-41 and busted out their hopes of making even more noise nationally. QB Case Keenum (536 yards, 5 TDs) did his best to keep the Cougars in the game but two key fumbles, one returned for a score, couldn’t slow down the Miners.
Can Houston return the favor on Saturday? The oddsmakers believe so, making the Cougars 20-point favorites at home. They’re also expecting another shootout, with the ‘over/under’ bouncing back and forth between 74 and 75 points.
There’s no doubt that Keenum is a stud and will probably be a Heisman Trophy candidate just based on his stats, but the Cougars’ defense is suspect. In last week’s 68-28 thumping of Texas State, Houston gave up 345 yards and 11-of-20 third down conversions. Fortunately, the unit forced four turnovers to limit the number of points.
The UTEP offense isn’t as potent as Houston’s but they looked solid in a 31-10 win last week albeit against Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Miners racked up 234 yards on the ground and 28 first downs, while quarterback Trevor Vittatoe was efficient with 229 yards.
Last year’s upset by the Miners shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, considering how well they matched up with the Cougars in recent games. UTEP is only 1-2, but 3-0 ATS in the last three games.
Playing at home has been a great strength for Houston, who has gone 11-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 11 played at Robertson Stadium. On the road last season, UTEP went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, but only two of the setbacks were by 10 or more.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: West Virginia at Marshall
By Nick Parsons
Country roads take us home when West Virginia pays a visit to Marshall in Huntington Friday night. The Thundering Herd will be looking to bounce back from their 45-7 blowout loss to Ohio State, while the Mountaineers hope to continue their unbeaten record against their instate rival.
The line and trends
The Line opened at -13 in favor of the road team and despite almost having 80 percent of popular opinion on WVU, the line has moved down to -12 at some books. This is the lowest spread in this series.
The total has remained steady at 47 points with only slight half-point moves. The last two games between these teams have gone under. Last year’s game easily went under the total of 51.
Different competition, different results
If there is one early edge Marshall has over West Virginia its strength of schedule. Well, at least through Week 1.
Marshall took on national title contenders, Ohio State, in the opener and, as predicted, it started ugly and ended ugly. On the opening kickoff, Andre Booker fumbled the ball which eventually resulted in an easy Buckeye touchdown. There wasn’t much improvement after that, with Ohio State scoring 35 points in the first half. Even a solid 71-yard drive in the third quarter was put to an end with a fumble at Ohio State’s six-yard line.
West Virginia, meanwhile, took on Coastal Carolina and they didn’t seem to take it seriously early on, scoring just 10 points in the first half. The Mountaineers decided to wake up from summer vacation in the second half scoring three touchdowns in their next four drives for 31-0 victory.
With the caliber of their opponents on opposite spectrums, it’s tough to tell just how bad Marshall or how good West Virginia is.
Familiar prescription
Marshall is 0-9 lifetime against West Virginia, but head coach Doc Holliday views the “Friends of Coal Bowl” (yes that is the official name) as a good opportunity to recover from Week 1.
“I told them after the loss that they can do something that no other team in the history of Marshall Football has ever done. Now I didn’t tell them what that was, but they can figure that out,” Holliday told reporters.
This marks the first home game for the rookie head coach. He is also hoping that his familiarity with his opponent will help. Holliday was a linebacker for the Mountaineers in the 70s and served as an assistant coach there for 20 years. The previous two years, he served as the recruiting coordinator and was responsible for the signing of WVU starting quarterback Geno Smith.
While he is familiar with the schemes and personnel of his opponents, Holliday did stress the importance of execution.
“It will help a little bit. But, you know what? We will get guys lined up in the right place and they may help us to an extent, but our guys are going to have to go out there and make plays,” he said.
3-3-5
Noel Devine will most likely have a big game Friday and QB Geno Smith should be able to breakdown the Thundering Herd’s defense. The key for spread and totals bettors lies in how effectively Marshall deals with the 3-3-5 defense.
“It's the defense's version of the wishbone,” said Marshall offensive coordinator Bill Legg, “it's significantly different from the other stuff that you see.”
Legg had previous success against the 3-3-5, calling the plays for Purdue when it scored 31 points against Northwestern in 2006. With added help from Holliday, the players will be fully prepped on what will be coming.
Marshall, however, will still need to perform. Breaking down the 3-3-5 will require an effective short pass and run game and last week’s 44 total yards of rushing is not a good sign for Marshall backers.
Second half bettors need to pay close attention to how well the offensive line reacts to the blitzes and mixed coverage early. If the line doesn’t get too confused, it will allow the offensive to relax and get into a rhythm.
Weather
The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies in Huntington with a lows in the mid 50s and a 20 percent chance of rain Friday night.
Friday's Games
West Virginia won last nine games vs in-state rival Marshall by 33-point average; this is much bigger game for Herd than WVa. Mountaineers were down 7-3 at half in this game last year, rallied for 24-7 win; they're 3-4 as road fave under Stewart. Marshall is 9-4-1 vs spread in last 14 games as home dog, but is 12-19-1 overall as dog since '06. Marshall has senior QB wit 16 starts. This is Geno Smith's 2nd start at QB for 'eers.
Average total in last five UTEP-Houston games is 75.8. Coogs passed for 536 yards LY but were upset 58-41 (-14) in El Paso. Dogs covered four of last five series games, with Miners losing last two visits here, by 34-17/42-37 scores. UTEP is 12-6 as road dog under Price; all five of OL starters are seniors. Houston is 6-1 as a home favorite under Sumlin. Two starting QBs in game have a combined 60 college starts.