Game of the day: Colorado at Toledo
By Lee Kostroski
Colorado Buffaloes at Toledo Rockets (+3.5, 54.5)
Disappointing Starts
Colorado and Toledo enter the second week of this young college football season looking for their first victory. The Buffaloes head into Friday night's game having minimal time to prepare after opening their season Sunday.
The Buffs lost their season opener to Colorado State 23-17, totaling just 251 yards in that 6-point loss to their in-state rival. It was just Colorado’s fifth loss in season openers since 1988. The Buffs now have to travel to Ohio to face the Toledo Rockets.
First year head coach Tim Beckman and the rest of the Rockets had their share of problems in their season opener. The Rockets suffered a 21-point loss to Purdue, giving up 513 total yards and 52 points to the Boilermakers.
This will be the first ever matchup between Toledo and Colorado. Toledo is 2-4 vs. current Big 12 opponents with both wins coming at home. Those wins include a 1-point victory vs. Iowa State 2007 and 6-point victory vs. Kansas in 2006.
The Buffs have played only one other MAC team since 1980. That game was in Colorado in 2007 and the Buffaloes crushed Miami (Ohio) 42-0 as 13.5-point favorites. However, CU has dropped four straight non-conference road games by 15 ppg.
Looking on the Bright Side
It’s not all bad news for the Rockets and Buffaloes after dropping their season openers.
Despite losing by 21 points and surrendering 513 total yards, the Rockets gained 493 yards and had more first downs and longer time of possession than the Boilermakers. Rockets QB Aaron Opelt had 423 yards passing, completing 41 passes to eight different receivers.
Colorado’s defense didn’t have a horrible game in the opener either. The Buffs gave up five big plays that totaled 215 yards, meaning CSU gained 161 on its other 57 plays from scrimmage (2.8 yards per play). The Rams missed on their last 10 third-down conversions and had four three-and-outs in their last six possessions.
Potential Problems
Though it’s only the second week of the season, both teams already have a lot of questions to answer.
On paper, one of Colorado’s strengths was its offensive line. It also return its top two tailbacks, Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott, who combined for over 1,000 yards in 2008.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado State’s defensive line looked to be the weak link of a defense that was torched for 190 yards per game on the ground last year. Despite that perceived advantage, the Buffaloes managed just 29 rushing yards on 21 carries (1.4 ypc).
Stewart & Scott get an opportunity to redeem themselves against Toledo. The Rockets surrendered 315 rushing yards to Purdue on an astonishing 8.1 yards per carry.
Toledo will be without Morgan Williams, their most productive running back from a year ago (1,053 yards, 6 touchdowns). Williams was suspended in early September for unspecified disciplinary reasons and will miss this, the second game of his two-game suspension.
Line Movements
The line on this game opened at Colorado -3. It has crept up to -3.5 early and now sits at -4 at most places. The total opened at 59 and was hammered down to 53.5 within a half hour of its release. It has now risen to 54.5 at the majority of books and it seems to have stabilized.
Trends
The Buffs have been tabbed road favorites for the first time since 2007. They are coming off a SU loss to rival Colorado State last week. When CU is a road favorite off a SU loss, they are just 4-8 ATS (33 percent) dating back to the 1994 season.
The Glass Bowl can be a tough venue for an opponent, which is why Toledo has been a home dog just 11 times since the start of the 2000 season. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS in that role. In that same time span, they are 4-1 ATS as a home puppy coming off a SU loss (they lost to Purdue last week).
Weather
The outlook for Friday night is partly cloudy and mild. The temperature will stick around 60 degrees with 10-15 mph winds. No rain is expected.
Colorado at Toledo
By Brian Edwards
With his hot seat nearing a boil, Dan Hawkins will bring Colorado to the Glass Bowl to face Toledo on Friday night. Hawkins came into the 2009 season with all eyes on his fourth team since leaving Boise St. for Boulder.
He had the luxury of playing the opener against Colorado St. at home rather than in Denver at Invesco Field. Nevertheless, the Rams came to Folsom Field and captured a 23-17 win as a 12-point underdog. And it wasn’t even that close.
That’s not what Hawkins had in mind and most certainly wasn’t what the CU boosters were looking for in the season opener against an in-state rival. Hawkins is now just 2-2 against the Rams.
Worst of all, Colorado (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) is an atrocious 13-25 SU on Hawkins’ watch. For our purposes, CU hasn’t been much better with a 13-22-1 ATS mark.
Where have you gone Eric Bieniemy?
Industry sources tell VegasInsider.com that Hawkins is safe because the AD has his back, but you have to wonder how safe the AD will be if CU leaves the Glass Bowl with a loss?
For this Big 12-MAC matchup, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Buffaloes as 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 54. As of Thursday morning, most books had CU favored by four with the total slightly budging by a half-point either way depending on your gambling location.
Toledo (0-1 SU, ATS) ushered in the Tim Beckman Era by dropping a 52-31 decision at Purdue as a 10-point underdog. The 83 combined points easily sailed ‘over’ the 46-point total.
Now normally we wouldn’t throw a MAC team under the bus for losing on the road to a Big Ten school by 21 points, but the Boilermakers are not going to be good this season. In fact, I have Purdue just one slot ahead of Indiana in the Big Ten cellar.
Therefore, we’re thinking the Rockets’ defense has issues galore after allowing the Boilers to hang a 52-spot and produce 535 yards of total offense. On the flip side, Beckman has to feel good about his offense, which tallied 493 yards of total offense.
Toledo senior quarterback Aaron Opelt connected on 41-of-67 attempts for 423 passing yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Senior WR Stephen Williams caught a school-record 15 receptions for 185 yards and a pair of TDs.
For the first home game since Beckman took over for the departed big man, Toledo Tom Amstutz, the school is calling for a “Midnight Blue Out.” When other BCS teams have come to the Glass Bowl in recent years, they have struggled.
For instance, Toledo knocked off Iowa St. 36-35 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. In ’06, Kansas came to town and left with a heartbreaking 37-31 defeat in double overtime. Worst of all, bettors like me backed the Jayhawks catching 4 ½ points.
Colorado is an abysmal 5-10 ATS in 15 road games on Hawkins’ watch. Toledo owns an 8-3 spread record in its last 11 games as a home underdog dating back to 2001.
ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
VegasInsider.com
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Toledo Rockets
Dan Hawkins is already skating on thin ice after the Buffaloes tanked their opener and hopes to turn it around in ESPN’s Friday night college football telecast against the Toledo Rockets.
The Colorado Buffaloes (0-1, 0-1 ATS) home opener against instate rival Colorado State went nowhere near as planned last Sunday night, as their experienced group was thoroughly dominated by the Rams. Toledo scored 31 points on Purdue last Saturday, but gave up 52 and lost both SU and ATS as 10-point road underdogs. This will be CU’s first non-conference Friday night game since 1975, and first ever match-up against Toledo.
Colorado never really found itself in last Sunday night’s game against the Rams. After CSU took the opening kick and proceeded to go right down the field to take a 7-0 lead, the game was pretty much over. The Buffaloes offense was anemic to say the least as it gained a whopping total of 251 yards. QB Cody Hawkins was dreadful completing 24 of 41 passes for 222 yards with a 1/1 TD/INT ratio, and the much talked about ground game mustered a total of 29 yards on 21 attempts from scrimmage (1.4 YPC). The overhyped Darrell Scott had just one rush for a whopping one-yard, and the offense converted just 3 of 14 3rd down attempts. Defensively, the Buffs allowed CSU QB Grant Stucker to throw for 208 yards and a score; they also gave up 168 yards on 45 rushing attempts (3.7 YPC) to RB Leonard Mason and company.
Toledo found itself down 7-0 on the Boilermakers first possession after RB Ralph Bolden ripped off a 78-yard run just 1:12 into the game. The lead was 21-0 before the Rockets got on the board, but new HC Tim Beckman’s club cut the lead to 21-14 before PU rattled off 10 straight points to take a 31-14 into the break. When it was all said and done, Toledo played close in the 2nd half, but the Boilers outburst in the first 30 minutes was enough to pull out the home win and cover. Sr. QB Aaron Opelt had a monster game completing 41 of 67 passes for 423 yards with 3 TD passes, but he also tossed a pair of picks. While the offense showed displayed some major firepower, the defense stunk out loud giving up 535 yards of total offense with 315 of those yards coming on the ground.
Colorado has dropped four straight non-conference road games by an average of 15 PPG, and they’re a poor 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS their L/10 road games. They are however 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS the L/9 times they were installed a favorite, and 11-5 ATS their L/16 Friday games. The Rockets are 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs. the Big 12 with both wins coming at home (Iowa State in ’07 & Kansas in ’06). They’re also 5-2 ATS their L/7 home games as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.
Colorado (0-1 SU and ATS) at Toledo (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams coming off ugly losses try to rebound tonight when the Buffaloes travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets at the Glass Bowl.
Colorado fell 23-17 at home Sunday night to rival Colorado State, losing outright as a 10½-point home favorite. The lackluster Buffs offense from 2008 returned for the 2009 opener, gaining just 251 yards against the Rams, 67 less than their average from a year ago when Colorado ranked 95th nationally in total offense. QB Cody Hawkins threw for 222 yards with a TD and an INT, but he was sacked four times.
Toledo went to Purdue on Saturday and got caught up in a shootout with the Boilermakers, eventually falling 52-31 as a 10-point underdog. QB Aaron Opelt tossed it all over the field for 423 yards, three TDs and an INT, but the Rockets’ run defense was horrendous, giving up 315 yards on 39 carries (8.1 ypc average).
Colorado has lost four straight non-conference road games by an average of 15 points per game and is just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 contests dating to last season. The Buffs are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games. Toledo is now just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 September games, but the Rockets are on positive ATS runs of 27-13 at home, 8-3 as a home underdog – including seven outright upsets – and 4-1 after a SU loss.
The Buffaloes have topped the total in eight of their last 11 games as a favorite and 10 of 13 on Friday, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action, 5-1 in September and 5-1 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Toledo is on “under’ runs of 10-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Rockets have soared over the total in eight of 11 as a home ‘dog.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO
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Tips and Trends
Colorado at Toledo
Colorado (-3.5, O/U 54): Colorado closed 2008 on a sour note losing seven of its last nine games and the Buffaloes were upset by Colorado State in their opener this season, 23-17. The Buffaloes are 2-7 against the spread in their past nine games. Colorado passed for 222 yards versus Colorado State, but rushed for just 29 yards. The Buffaloes are 1-6 against the spread in their next game after failing to accumulate at least 275 yards of offense during their previous game. They also are 1-5 against the number following a loss. Highly-touted sophomore running back Darrell Scott had just one carry against Colorado State. Quarterback Cody Hawkins was sacked four times. Now the Buffaloes are traveling on a short week and laying points. This is their first game on artificial turf this season. The Buffaloes have gone under in five of the last six games they played on carpet.
The Under has cashed in 11 of Colorado’s last 14 non-conference matchups.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Nick Kasa (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 28
Toledo: Toledo is 27-13 against the spread in its 40 home games. Senior quarterback Aaron Opelt threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns in the Rockets’ 52-31 opening-week road loss to Purdue. Wide receivers Stephen Williams and Eric Page each had more than 100 receiving yards and combined for three touchdowns. While the Rockets’ passing attack shined, their defense was a huge disappointment. Toledo returned 10 starters from one of the Mid-American Conference’s better defenses, but surrendered 500 yards of total offense to Purdue. New Rockets head coach Tim Beckman is familiar with Colorado of the Big 12 since he was the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State the previous two years. Toledo is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 games as a home ‘dog. The Rockets have covered five of seven times they’ve been a field goal or more ‘dog at the Glass Bowl since 2004.
The Under is 10-4-1 in the Rockets’ last 15 games..
Key Injuries - Running back Morgan Williams (suspension) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 25 (Side of the Day)