Boise St. at Fresno St.
By Brian Edwards
Following a pair of dominant wins on the smurf turf, Boise State (2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread) is poised to go on the road for the first time when it opens WAC play Friday night in Fresno.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Broncos as 10-point favorites with a total of 54. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise St. installed as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Fresno St. (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) is plus-240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240).
Chris Petersen’s program has become the gold standard for non-BCS schools and appears on its way to possibly earning a berth in a BCS bowl game like it did in 2006. On Petersen’s watch, BSU has compiled an incredible 37-4 SU record to go with a 23-15 spread mark.
The Broncos started the season by destroying Oregon 19-8 as three-point home favorites in a game that wasn’t nearly as close the final score indicated. They didn’t allow the Ducks to get a first down until the third quarter.
And that’s where we see the progress made by Boise St., which has always been a juggernaut offensively. Now the Broncos are playing outstanding defense. That unit was on display last week, dealing Miami (OH.) a shutout in a 48-0 win as 40-point favorites.
The Ducks mustered only six first downs and 152 yards of total offense against BSU. The RedHawks produced just 194 net yards. By my math, that has the Broncos allowing just 4.0 points and 173 yards per game.
Fresno St. started the season by destroying UC Davis 51-0 in a non-lined affair. In Week 2, the Bulldogs went to Camp Randall and returned home with a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin by a 34-31 count in double overtime. Although Pat Hill’s team came up shy of knocking off yet another BCS school on the road, it did hook up its backers with winning tickets as a nine-point road underdog.
Throughout Hill’s 13-year tenure in Fresno, the Bulldogs have lived by the mantra of “anybody, anytime and anywhere.” On that note, they have been to the nation’s toughest venues and held their own more often than not. Hill has outright wins at Oregon, at Colorado, at Wisconsin, at Washington, at UCLA and at Kansas St. on his resume.
But those non-conference games have seemingly taken their toll on the Bulldogs, who often invade the top-25 rankings in September only to fall apart in league play. After winning at Rutgers and at UCLA last season, the Bulldogs limped to a 4-4 record against WAC foes and finished fifth in the conference.
They have lost seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Boise St. These teams were tied at 10-10 late in the second quarter of last year’s encounter, but the Broncos responded with 51 unanswered points en route to an easy spread cover.
FSU has to be disappointed about coming up short in its upset bid against the Badgers. The Bulldogs had more yards (468-413) and first downs (24-19) than Wisconsin, which had as many as 40 players with flu-like symptoms as recently as the Tuesday before the game.
For the most part, Hill has to like what he’s seeing from junior quarterback Nate Colburn, who came into the year having attempted just five career passes. Colburn has completed 27-of-45 passes for 450 yards and five touchdowns. The blemish on his numbers is four interceptions, including one on the first play of double OT. However, Colburn made several clutch throws to force that second extra session.
Petersen is certainly thrilled with the play of his sophomore QB, Kellen Moore. After a fabulous freshman campaign, Moore has just picked up where he left off. To date, he has connected on 64.8 percent of his passes with a 5/1 touchdown-interception ratio.
His favorite targets are Austin Pettis and Titus Young. Pettis has made 10 receptions for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while Young had hauled in 11 catches for 160 yards and two TDs. D.J. Harper has emerged as the go-to guy on the ground, rushing 32 times for 177 yards and two TDs.
ESPN’s coverage of “Friday Night Lights” will start at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Since the start of the 2000 campaign, Boise St. has won 100 of its 117 games played.
--Since nearly shocking top-ranked USC late in the 2005 season, Fresno St. has an atrocious 12-28 spread ledger.
--Since 2004, Fresno St. is 1-5 ATS in six games as a home underdog.
--Boise owns a 7-7 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite during Petersen’s tenure.
--Going against Moore and Boise's prolific aerial attack, Fresno St. might be without safety Lorne Bell. "The Human Missile" is "questionable" after leaving last week's game with a strained MCL.
--California’s trip to Minnesota as a 14-point road ‘chalk’ is eerily similar to the same spot it faced in Week 3 last year. The Bears went to College Park to face Maryland in a noon Eastern game as 14-point road favorites. The Terrapins jumped out to a 28-6 lead and eventually captured a 35-27 win as double-digit home underdogs. This time around, the game is once again a noon start, which is obviously 9:00 a.m. back in Berkley.
--As of late Wednesday afternoon, most spots had Vandy as a nine-point home favorite for Saturday’s game against Mississippi State. Bobby Johnson’s team hasn’t been this rich a favorite against an SEC foe since Jay Cutler’s senior season in 2005. The Commodores were 11-point ‘chalk’ vs. Kentucky in that situation and lost by a 48-43 score.
--Baylor is favored by 10 for its home game against UConn. The Huskies captured a 31-28 win over the Bears last season, but Robert Griffin led his team to the easy spread cover as a 13-point underdog. Art Briles’ squad enjoyed an open date after winning a 24-21 decision at Wake Forest in Week 1. UConn is coming off a 12-10 loss to North Carolina as a five-point home underdog.
vegasinsider.com.
Games to Watch - Week 3
By Chris David
Even though there are only two games that feature ranked teams going head-to-head, the entire slate has some intriguing matchups that could be telling toward the entire year for some teams.
Let's take a quick look at 11 contests for this weekend that are worth watching.
Week 3
Friday - Boise State at Fresno State (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Do we have an upset special on tap this Friday? Pat Hill and Fresno State (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) certainly hope so but it will take a monumental effort on Friday against Boise State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS). Most pundits believe this will probably be the last test for BSU and if they can leave here with a win, then a BCS bowl berth seems inevitable. The Bulldogs looked good last week in their 34-31 loss to Wisconsin except for a few big plays given up on defense. Boise State has owned this series recently, going 7-1 both SU and ATS in the last eight. Even though Boise State ripped Fresno 61-10 last year, the Broncos only led 13-10 at the half before erupting for 48 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes. BSU head coach Chris Peterson has gone 7-7 ATS as a road favorite, and that includes a 4-1 mark last year.
vegasinsider.com
CFB Streaks & Notes
By SportsPic
Boise State at Fresco State
Boise State 12-1 (7-3-2 ATS) a year ago opened the 2009 campaign posting a 19-8 win over the Ducks in it's opener followed by a 48-ZIP thrashing of Miami (OH) last week giving the Broncos an unbelievable 63-1 (40-15-1 ATS) mark the past 10 years in front of the home crowd. Second year pivot Kellen Moore recording 504 passing yards, 5 TD's in the two contests now hopes to guide the troops to it's 15th consecutive regular season victory (9-3-1 ATS) and it's 9th consecutive WAC win (6-2 ATS) when they travel to Fresno State for a matchup against the Bulldogs.
Running over Bulldogs last year behind 246 rushing yards (4 TD's), 213 yards 2 TD's by Moore the Broncos recorded a 61-10 win moving the mark to 7-1 SU & ATS this millennium vs Fresno State.
Broncos have been pegged 7.5 point favorites and while a total has yet to be posted it is well to note the 'Under' is 4-2 last six meetings. Trends of interest: Broncos 11-3 ATS as favorites of eight or less, Bulldogs 2-10 ATS last twelve in WAC play.
Game of the day: Boise State at Fresno State
By Lee Kostroski
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (-7, 53.5)
BCS Busters
Boise State kicked off the season with a big win against Oregon to put it on the map as a legitimate BCS contender. Friday’s game at Fresno State could be the toughest test left of its remaining games.
Other than potentially tough games vs. Nevada and at Tulsa, Boise State’s schedule looks like it could be smooth sailing all the way to an undefeated season. It could be tough for the Broncos to move up in the rankings from here on, so winning by large margins will be important for Boise State the rest of the season.
Boise State domination
In 2001, Fresno State was ranked No. 8 and looking at a 13-0 season before losing to Boise State which ended up costing the Bulldogs a BCS Bowl. Since the start of the 2001 season, Boise State has gone 88-15 SU, 58-37-3 ATS, only losing three WAC games in that period (one coming against Fresno State in 2005).
The Broncos have won seven of eight games versus the Bulldogs by 24 points per game. Last year, these two were tied at 10-10 late in the second quarter before Boise State scored 51 unanswered points. The last three years, Boise State has won by an average score of 46-17 and out-gained the Bulldogs by an average of 471 yards to 289.
Key for Fresno State
The run defense will be the key for the Bulldogs if they want to pull off the upset against Boise State. In BSU’s last and only loss since 2007, the Horned Frogs of TCU ran for 275 yards and held the Broncos to 28 in the Poinsetta Bowl. TCU beat Boise State 17-16.
Boise State has averaged 276 rushing yards per game in the last three games vs. Fresno State but its run game has yet to take off this year, averaging just 145.5 yards per game and 3.3 per carry.
Defensive showdown
Boise State is usually recognized for its offense but the defense has been equally as impressive. The defense has allowed just eight points and 346 total yards in two games thus far. The Broncos have held four of their last 12 opponents without an offensive touchdown.
Last week, they shutout Miami (Ohio) and allowed just 194 total yards. They held the Redhawks without a single play of more than 13 yards. That game marked the 14th time in their last 28 games that the Broncos have held their opponent to 10 or fewer points.
Fresno State won its first game 51-0 vs. UC Davis (FBS) and held the Wisconsin Badgers to 17 points with 5:45 left in the fourth quarter but then allowed 17 points in remainder of regulation and overtime. The Bulldog defense gave up just 21.1 ppg in 2004 but has been in steady decline since as they gave up 31.1 ppg in 2008.
Keep an eye on…
Wisconsin had a swine flu outbreak last week leading up to the game vs. Fresno State. Forty-five players for Wisconsin (almost half the team) missed practice during the week leading up to the contest versus FSU. There has been no mention of Fresno State players catching it yet but it's something to keep an eye on.
Trends
Boise State is 7-1 both SU and ATS the last eight games in this series. Fresno State has not been a home dog of more than a touchdown since 2003. When tabbed as a home dog of a TD or more, the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS since 1990 winning three of those games outright. However, FSU is just 1-6 both SU and ATS the last seven overall when getting points at home.
Since 1999, the Broncos have been a road favorite of a touchdown or more 34 times. The Broncos are 18-15-1 ATS in those games, however, they have lost only one of those contests straight up and that was at North Texas in 1999.
Line movement
The line opened with Boise State at -7.5 and has stayed in the range of -7 and -8 (currently at -7). The total opened 53.5 and rose to 54.5 before dropping again to a current 53.5.
Weather
The weather won’t be a factor in this game. The forecast is calling for hot temperatures, mid 80’s by gametime falling into the mid-to-low 70’s. There is no chance for precipitation and 5-10 mph winds.
(10) Boise State (2-0 SU and ATS) at Fresno State (1-1, 1-0 ATS)
Boise State begins its quest for a seventh Western Athletic Conference crown in the last eight years when it heads to central California to battle rival Fresno State.
The Broncos are hoping to run the table in the WAC and earn themselves a BCS bowl bid for the second time in the last four years. After dominating Oregon 19-8 as a 3½-point home favorite in the opener, Boise State crushed Miami (Ohio) 48-0 Saturday, covering as a huge 38½-point home chalk. QB Kellen Moore has been spectacular for the Broncos, throwing for 504 yards, five TDs and just one INT, and he’s found a favorite target in Titus Young, who had 114 yards receiving and two TDs against Miami on Saturday.
Fresno State went to Madison, Wis., on Saturday and built a 21-7 lead on the Badgers before allowing the Big Ten squad to come back and win 34-31 in double-overtime, though the Bulldogs covered easily as an eight-point underdog. QB Ryan Colburn threw three TD passes in the first half against Wisconsin only to throw three INTs in the second half as the Badgers rallied to tie and eventually win in OT. Bulldogs’ RB Ryan Mathews has rushed for 213 yards on 30 carries in two games.
Boise State got 211 yards passing and two TDs from Moore in last season’s 61-10 destruction of Fresno State, as the Broncos easily cashed as a 21½-point home favorite. The Broncos have won three straight and eight of nine against Fresno, cashing in seven of those eight contests. The favorite has gotten the cash in each of the last seven meetings, and the host is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Since joining the WAC in 2001, Boise State has won 54 of 56 conference contests, with one of the defeats coming in 2005 at then-No. 20 Fresno State (27-7 loss as a 9½-point road underdog).
The Broncos are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 5-0 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 in September, 4-1-1 in WAC play, 10-3 in Friday night contests and 43-20-1 when they follow a previous ATS win.
Despite cashing at Wisconsin on Saturday, the Bulldogs have struggled at the window lately, posting ATS slumps of 11-30 overall, 5-16 at home, 3-9 in September, 6-20 in WAC games, 1-5-1 in conference openers 1-7 on Fridays and 3-23 following a straight-up loss.
Boise State is on several “under” streaks, including 10-3 in September, 8-3 as a road favorite, 7-2 after an ATS win and 7-2 when it’s favored by 3½ to 10 points. Fresno State has topped the total in eight of its last 12 lined games overall, 17 of 25 in September and five of its last seven after a SU loss. Finally, the “under” has been the play in four of the last six between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
WAC attack Friday
By Brobury Sports
The Boise State Broncos have had the number of the Fresno State Bulldogs in recent years.
No. 10 Boise State is 7-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS over the last eight years versus Fresno State. That was punctuated by a 61-10 win last year and they’re 7.5-point favorites this time around at BroburySports.com.
The Over/Under is 53.5 points and ESPN will have the coverage at 9 pm ET.
The Broncos have had a great start to the season at 2-0 SU and ATS. They beat a 16th ranked Oregon team in the opener 19-8, in a game marred by a late fight. They then took care of business last week against Miami of Ohio, winning 48-0 as 38.5 point chalk.
Leading the way has been sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore. He has five touchdowns on the year versus just one interception. The Boise State defense has been terrific overall, but especially versus the run where they’re allowing just 34.5 YPG.
Note that the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. They’re also 10-3 ATS on Friday night games.
Fresno State comes in limping
Fresno State (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) arrives at this game still trying to figure out how they lost at Wisconsin, 34-31 in double overtime last week. The Bulldogs outplayed the Badgers, but were victimized by three second-half interceptions by quarterback Ryan Colburn.
Fresno State did cover the 7.5 point-spread, but that’s little consolation to coach Pat Hill.
With Colburn likely still shaken up by the last game, the team will turn to running backs Ryan Matthews and Robbie Rouse. Both are averaging more than seven yards per carry. Matthews gained 107 yards in Madison last week and 106 in the 51-0 opener vs. UC Davis.
However, running into the teeth of the Boise State offense isn’t going to be easy even at home, so Colburn will have to make some plays down the field.
The Fresno State defense does have the talent to slow down Boise State. They’ll look to contain Moore just enough to keep this game close into the 4th quarter.
Note that Fresno State is 0-9 straight-up against ranked opponents since the 2005 season began.
The Bulldogs are an awful 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and just 1-7 ATS on Friday nights. Finally, they’re just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 conference tilts.
Tips and Trends
Boise State at Fresno State
Boise State (-7.5, O/U 53.5): Boise State is 54-2 in Western Athletic Conference play since 2002. The Broncos outscored their conference foes by an average of 31.1 points last year in going 8-0 in the WAC. The 10th-ranked Broncos opened the season beating Oregon, 19-8, and buried Miami of Ohio 48-0 last Saturday getting 307 passing yards and four touchdowns from Kellen Moore. Titus Young caught six passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos have held foes to 69 rushing yards on 43 attempts after finishing last season with the third-best scoring defense in the country allowing 12.6 points per game. Boise State has covered seven of the past eight times against Fresno, but the Broncos are just 1-6 against the number in their first road game of the season. Last year, Boise downed Fresno, 61-10, out-gaining the Bulldogs, 494-294. The Broncos have gone under in 10 of their last 13 September games.
Bowl teams from a year ago that win and cover in their first two games are 10-24 ATS in Game 3.
The Under is 8-3 the past 11 times the Broncos have been a road favorite.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 30
Fresno State: Fresno is looking to pull off a rare conference upset of Boise State. The Bulldogs came close last week to upsetting Wisconsin on the road losing 34-31 in double overtime after leading 21-7 in the second quarter. The Bulldogs gashed the Badgers for 489 yards on the ground, paced by 213 yards from Ryan Mathews. Fresno opened the season with a 51-0 victory over UC Davis. The Bulldogs have dropped nine straight games versus ranked opponents since defeating then No. 18 Virginia in overtime in 2004. Fresno, though, has been a solid underdog under Pat Hill going 35-22-1 against the spread in that role, including 8-4 against the spread as a home ‘dog. The Bulldogs probably will have to do a better job stopping the run to upset the Broncos, who have averaged 276 rushing yards the past three games against Fresno State.
Fresno State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 conference games.
The Bulldogs are 5-13 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (UNDER - Total of the Day)