TCU at SMU Preview
By Brian Edwards
Texas Christian (3-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will take its unbeaten resume on the road Friday night to face upset-minded Southern Methodist.
Most betting shops are listing the Horned Frogs as 18-point favorites with a total of 55 ½. Gamblers can take the Mustangs on the money line for a lucrative plus-650 return (risk $100 to win $650).
SMU (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) opened the season with a 35-27 loss at Texas Tech, but the Mustangs hooked up their backers as 13-point underdogs. The 62 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 57-point total.
Since then, June Jones’ squad has won two straight games, including a 28-7 win over UAB in Week 2. SMU took the cash against the Blazers as an 11 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Zach Line ran for 122 yards and two touchdowns, while QB Kyle Padron threw for 145 yards and a pair of TDs without being intercepted. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 55-point tally.
In Week 3, SMU was never able to get ahead of the number in a 35-21 non-covering win over Washington St. as a 24-point home favorite. Padron certainly did his part, connecting on 19-of-34 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Aldrick Robinson enjoyed a banner day with four receptions for 111 yards and three TDs.
The 56 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 53-point tally thanks to a long TD pass from Cougars with just more than a minute remaining.
Gary Patterson’s team opened the season at Cowboys Stadium, beating Oregon St. 30-21 as a 13 1/2-point favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 453 yards and allowed just 255 from the Beavers, but OSU still took the cash from the underdog role. The 51 combined points inched ‘over’ the 49 ½-point total.
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton was picked off twice, but he did rush for a pair of scores and threw a TD pass to Jeremy Kerley. Ed Wesley carried the rushing load, gaining 134 yards on 17 carries and scoring on an eight-yard scamper.
In Week 2, the Horned Frogs dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 62-7 clubbing of Tennessee Tech in a non-lined affair. Some thought previously-unbeaten Baylor and its start QB Robert Griffin might give TCU a test last week.
That notion was short-lived, however, as Patterson’s bunch cruised to a 45-10 win as a 21-point home favorite. The 55 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55 ½-point total.
Dalton was nearly flawless, completing 21-of-23 passes for 267 yards and two TDs without being picked off. Wesley had 19 carries for 165 yards and a pair of scores, while Kerley had six catches for 69 yards and both TDs thrown by Dalton.
Defensively, TCU never let Griffin establish any sort of rhythm. Griffin was limited to 21 rushing yards on 14 attempts, and he completed 16-of-28 passes for 164 yards and one TD without an interception.
For the season, Dalton is completing 74.6 percent of his throws for 624 yards with a 4/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has three rushing TDs. Kerley has been his favorite target, hauling in 13 catches for 134 yards and three TDs. Kerley also has one rushing TD.
Wesley is 10th in the nation in rushing, carrying the ball 47 times for 384 yards and four TDs. That’s good for an eye-opening 8.2 yards-per-carry average.
Since throwing three interceptions in the season-opening loss at Texas Tech, SMU’s Padron has been nothing short of sensational. In the last two games, he has six TD passes without a pick to improve his TD/INT ratio to 8/3 for the year.
These in-state rivals play for the Iron Skillet, which has gone back to Ft. Worth the last three years. We should note, however, that SMU has covered the number in two of those three defeats. The Mustangs last beat TCU in 2005 by a 21-10 count as 13 ½-point home underdogs.
In last year’s meeting, SMU led 7-0 in the second quarter before giving up 25 unanswered points. The Horned Frogs eventually came away with a 39-14 triumph that wasn’t enough to hook up their backers as 28-point home favorites.
ESPN will have the telecast Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
TCU has won 17 of its last 18 games and 29 of its last 32. In nine of its last 10 wins, TCU has won by 27 points or more. The Horned Frogs have won 17 consecutive regular-season wins.
TCU has a 7-3 spread record in its last 10 road ‘chalk’ situations.
SMU went 2-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2009. The Mustangs beat East Carolina 28-21 as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, and dropped a 38-35 decision to Navy in overtime as seven-point puppies.
SMU has taken the money in each of its last three games as a double-digit underdog. In fact, the Mustangs have won outright in two of those contests, including a 45-10 win over Nevada as 12-point ‘dogs at last year’s Hawaii Bowl. Also, Jones’ team thumped Tulsa 27-13 as a 14 ½-point road ‘dog last season.
TCU senior strong safety Tyler Luttrell is ‘doubtful’ Friday with a hamstring injury. Luttrell had 35 tackles and an interception in ’09.
With Houston losing its top two QBs (Case Keenum and Cotton Turner) to season-ending injuries in last week’s 31-13 loss at UCLA, the West Division of C-USA has become anyone’s for the taking. In other words, the door appears wide open for SMU, which is 1-0 in league play thanks to its win over UAB. The Mustangs and Tulsa become the likely favorites in the loop, and the Golden Hurricane has to come to Dallas on Oct. 9.
Wake Forest has won back-to-back games at Doak Campbell Stadium by a combined score of 42-3. Nevertheless, the Demon Deacons are underdogs in the 18-19 point range for Saturday’s ACC showdown in Tallahassee.
Kentucky is the nation's only team to play three games without committing a turnover. The Wildcats, who are 3-0 both SU and ATS, play at Florida this week as 14-point underdogs. UK hasn't beaten UF since 1986, losing 23 in a row to the Gators. The 'Cats haven't won at The Swamp since 1979.
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TCU at SMU Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
Non-traditional Texas football powers, past and present, collide Friday night in Dallas when fourth-ranked TCU plays a dangerous road game against upstart SMU. More than just the "Iron Skillet" (goes to the winning team annually) is on the line here as the Horned Frogs are seeking an unbeaten regular season and BCS Title Game berth. They come in as decided road favorites on the betting line, laying as many as 17.5 points at some offshore sportsbooks.
This is the fourth straight year these schools will meet. TCU has won the previous three, all by double-digits, but is just 1-2 ATS in those games having been favored by 28 last year (W 39-14) and 23 in 2007 (W 21-7). In their last visit to Dallas, two years ago, they completely buried the Mustangs 48-7 as 24-point favorites in HC June Jones first season. This is the final non-conference game for both teams.
In last year's 25-point win, TCU's Jeremy Kerley returned a punt 71 yards for a touchdown, the school's first punt return for a TD in seven seasons. SMU did jump out to a 7-0 lead before allowing 25 unanswered points. The Mustangs' 224 total yards marked their lowest offensive output of the entire season.
The Horned Frogs have yet to leave the Lone Star State this season, having opened their season with a hard fought 30-21 win over Oregon State at Cowboys Stadium. They did not cover as 13.5-point chalk. Since that time, they've been very impressive in routs of Tennessee Tech (62-7) and Baylor (45-10). QB Dalton was very impressive last week vs. a Baylor team many thought could give TCU a dog fight as he completed his first 11 passes and finished 21 of 23 for 267 yards and two touchdowns as the offense scored touchdowns on each of its first five drives.
Dalton has more victories (32) than any other active signal caller in college football, and ranks 15th in the FBS with a 161.4 passer rating. He has completed 74.6 percent of his throws for 624 yards and four touchdowns while adding 113 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Horned Frogs are 17-1 SU their last 18 games, with only a loss to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl and are averaging 45.7 PPG in 2010.
The defense, as is usually the case under HC Patterson in Fort Worth, has been very good. The Horned Frogs stop unit ranks fourth nationally, allowing only 222.7 yards per game. Opponents are also converting only 29.7% of their third down attempts as well.
SMU has been a real nice story under HC Jones and continues to improve. Last season ended with the program's first bowl appearance since being hit with the "Death Penalty" in 1984, a 45-10 outright win over Nevada as 12-point underdogs in the Hawaii Bowl. The Mustangs ended a 17-game losing streak to BCS schools last week with a 35-21 win over Washington State here at home. They did not cover as huge 23.5-point favorites. That 17-game losing skid went all the way back to the 2000 season. QB Kyle Pardon threw for 280 yards and four touchdowns - three to Aldrick Robinson - and ran for a fifth for the Mustangs, who scored 21 straight second-half points to snap a 14-14 tie.
Pardon has at least two touchdown passes in all three games and eight overall. The sophomore has not thrown an interception in SMU's two wins after being picked off three times in its 35-27 season-opening loss to Texas Tech as 12.5-point underdogs. That ATS win improved Jones' team to an outstanding 8-1 ATS the last nine times they've been getting points. They have not beaten a ranked opponent outright since beating TCU, 21-10, as 14-point home pups back in 2005.
Another betting trend to consider is that TCU has gone Under the total in seven straight road games when facing a foe with a winning record.
TCU at SMU: What Bettors Need to Know
By Nick Parsons
June Jones and the SMU Mustangs will be looking to pull off a huge upset against the fifth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, in the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The Dallas-Fort Worth rivalry takes place on Friday night and TCU is listed as -17.5 favorites
Why TCU will cover
Expectations are the highest they have ever been at TCU and so far the Horned Frogs are living up to the hype. Their 3-0 record includes a tough win over Oregon State and huge blowout over a decent Baylor squad.
Gary Patterson's team ranks high in both offensive and defensive production which makes a three-touchdown victory a strong possibility Friday. The Horned Frogs are averaging 45.7 points a game and they rank fourth in yards allowed giving up just 222.7 per game. History is also on their side having won nine of the last 10 contests in this rivalry.
Southern Methodist’s sophomore QB Kyle Padron (a Southlake Carroll grad) has been decent so far this year but this is the first time he will be facing a defense of this caliber. Technically speaking, TCU's 4-2-5 is built to handle a June Jones-type offense. Padron will have a tough time finding mismatches which was key in SMU's victories over UAB and Washington State.
Patterson realizes that his team not only needs to win all their games, but they need to win big. Narrow margins of victory against Oregon State and Utah might be accepted by the voters, but a scare or two from the other teams on their schedule will prove costly.
Why SMU will cover
This is not the same SMU team that went 1-11 in 2008. June Jones brought over his Hawaii offense and managed to produce an 8-5 record and a bowl win in just his second year as head coach. While it is still a pass-heavy system, Jones has incorporated more of a rushing game to his offense. Jones had his first ever 1000 yard rusher last season.
The possession time will increase for SMU, whether or not they get into the end zone. Jones is aware of the 4-2-5 and realizes the importance of establishing the run as a legitimate threat.
Texas Christian will be in the Cover 2 and Cover 5 the majority of the time, which means that SMU will go to the ground more than they usually do. Their running back Zach Line is tailor made for slowing down the pace of the game. The converted linebacker is grinder and is more of a Tim Riggins type, than Smash Williams.
While an SMU win is unlikely, the slowed-down in pace should make a 17.5-point cover a difficult task for TCU.
Notes and trends
The line opened at 17.5 and it has seen slight half-point movements to -18 at some books. Consensus opinion is strong on TCU to cover at a 70/30 split. The Mustangs loss 39-14 last year but managed to cover the 28-point spread.
The total has been steadily moving up throughout the week and now sits at 55.5 at most books. Both teams are a combined 4-2 over/under this season. The line has been sharp in this rivalry with the 2008 contest going over the total of 53 by only two points and last year's game resulting in a push.
The weather in Dallas is expected to be cloudy and wet with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night.
Tips and Trends
TCU Horned Frogs AT SMU Mustangs
HORNED FROGS: (-17.5, O/U 55.5) TCU is quite easily one of the best teams in all of college football. More importantly, this team has been on that elite level for longer than most people realize. Defense rules the day for this team, and this year is no exception. The Horned Frogs are only allowing 12.7 PPG, the 9th best in all of FBS. This stat is even more impressive when you consider this TCU team has played Baylor and Oregon St, 2 formidable teams. Tonight marks the first road game of the season for the Horned Frogs. QB Andy Dalton leads a very underrated offense that doesn't get nearly the publicity that the defense gets. All the Horned Frogs offense has done this year is average 45.7 PPG, the 6th most in the country. Dalton has 32 career victories to his credit, the most of any QB in FBS play. TCU has won the past 3 meetings SU with SMU, yet have only gone 1-2 ATS in those specific contests. TCU has the rare opportunity of playing in a standalone game in front of a national audience, so one would expected the Horned Frogs best effort tonight.
Horned Frogs are 8-2 ATS last 10 games following a SU win.
Under is 7-2 last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - S Tyler Luttrell (hamstring) is probable.
Projected Score: 41 (OVER-Total of the Day)
MUSTANGS: The Iron Skillet will be on display tonight, as SMU looks to make a program defining statement in beat the 4th ranked team in the nation. SMU is a program on the rise, as this team has been making strides under Coach June Jones the past few seasons. The last time SMU beat a ranked opponent was 2005, when they beat a ranked TCU team. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1996 to see a Mustangs win over a ranked opponent. SMU is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season, with their lone loss coming against Texas Tech. QB Kyle Padron has the chance to be special under Coach Jones, and he's off to a fast start this year. Padron has throw for 8 TD's this year, against only 3 INT's. For SMU to take the next step with their program, the defense needs to continue to improve rapidly. The Mustangs have allowed TCU to average 43.5 PPG over their previous 2 meetings. SMU isn't used to having "big" games played in their stadium, so one could expect a true home field advantage tonight with the Iron Skillet ultimately at stake.
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 17-5 last 22 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - DB Sterling Moore (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 24
TCU - SMU Preview
TCU crushed local rival SMU in last two meetings, 48-7/39-14; Horned Frogs are 7-3 as road favorite since '08, but just 7-8 in non-league tilts. MWC favorites are 3-0 vs spread in non-league games. SMU is 10-7-1 as underdog under Jones, 4-2 at home- they were just 17-38 passing in LY's loss. Mustangs scored 30 ppg in 2-1 start, but are up in class facing this TCU team that was up 35-3 at half in last week's easy win vs Baylor.