Tigers ready for Nevada
By AllStar.com
Missouri heads west looking at wrapping up a perfect regular-season non-conference campaign for the fourth straight year. It will be a tough task, however, as Mizzou travels to Reno, Nev., where they’ll face the dangerous Nevada Wolf Pack (0-2).
The Tigers are coming off an explosive 52-12 win last Saturday over Furman. Nevada, which entered the season figuring to be one of the top teams in the Western Athletic Conference, has gotten off to a tough start, as they’ve dropped two road games to start the season. The Wolf Pack have been plagued by the turnover bug in their first two games, as they are minus eight in turnover margin, Missouri is 3-0 on the season with wins against Illinois, Bowling Green and Furman. This will be the second meeting all-time between the teams. The Wolf Pack will look to avenge a 69-17 loss that Mizzou put on them in Columbia last season.
Quarterbacks: For Nevada everything starts with Colin Kaepernick, the reigning WAC offensive player of the year and the league's preseason player of the year. Kaepernick must improve his accuracy. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 149 yards and two interceptions against Notre Dame. Kaepernick was 17-for-31 for 152 yards and led Nevada with 71 yards rushing on eight carries against CSU. Kaepernick has four interceptions on the season.
Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert leads the Big 12 in efficiency rating with a 166.10. Gabbert is 62-of-91, for 747 yards and 8 touchdowns. Gabbert also has two rushing touchdowns. Had a stellar first collegiate start, throwing for three TD’s against Illinois in the season opener in St. Louis and earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week. Gabbert threw two touchdowns against Bowling Green and three against Furman
Running backs: Nevada is one of two schools (Oklahoma is the other) to return a pair of 1,000-yard rushers from 2008, Collin Kaepernick and Vai Taua. Taua the junior running back had his ninth 100-yard game in since the start of the 2008 season against Notre Dame in the opener. Taua, the WAC's leading rusher in 2008 and first-team All-WAC selection, rushed for 114 yards on 18 attempts. Vai Taua rushed for 95 yards, adding touchdown runs of 31 and 2 yards for Nevada against CSU. Taua has 232 yards on the season. The Wolfpack need to get Kaepernick moving this season he is stuck at 63 yards rushing on the season.
Mizzou is coming off a season-best 196-yard rushing day against Furman, as the Tigers averaged 5.4 yards a carry on 36 attempts. True freshman Kendial Lawrence had the biggest day, as he netted 77 yards on just 10 carries. Lawrence had runs of 12, 11 and 10 yards. Derrick Washington is averaging 4.3 yards per carry over his 226 yards and two TD’s in 2009.
Wide receivers: Brandon Wimberly recorded the first100-yard receiving game of his career and the first by a Nevada player this season. Wimberly has caught 9 balls for 140 yards and a TD. Tray Sessions has caught 12 balls for 137 yards. Chris Wellington has added six catches.
Senior WR Jared Perry turned in a career day in just two quarters of play last Saturday in Mizzou’s 52-12 win over Furman. Perry had 7 catches for 161 yards and 2 Tds. With the Tigers holding a 42-0 halftime lead, Perry was given the rest of the day off, as he didn’t play in the 3rd or 4th quarters. Senior WR Danario Alexander leads MU with 20 receptions, 234 receiving yards and 2 Tds. Alexander accounted for 3 TD’s (2 rec. and 1 passing) against Furman and Wes Kemp is averaging 17.1 yards per reception.
Defense: Nevada coach Chris Ault stressed the need for his defense, particularly his pass defense, to be improved if the Wolf Pack was to take the next step as a program. Well, after a season-opening 35-0 loss to Notre Dame, the defense still has a lot of work to do. Notre Dame passed for 332 yards in the victory. Three of the four touchdown passes came on plays where Nevada defenders were in position, but didn't make the play. Notre Dame ran 61 plays and 54 of them were on first or second down. Ouch. The defensive numbers are inflated because the offense has been turning the ball over at a record pace and the defense is always on the field. Nevada recorded its first sack of the season when Kevin Basped took down Grant Stucker in the first half against CSU.
To the casual observer, Mizzou’s defensive numbers through 3 games might not appear eye-popping, as the Tigers rank anywhere from 20th to 65th nationally in the major stat categories of defense. But make no mistake about it, the Tiger defense has shown nice improvement from a year ago, and appears to be a unit that is ready to help decide the outcome of ballgames. The undisputed leader of the 2009 Tigers is senior LB Sean Weatherspoon. “Spoon” has 29 tackles through 3 games. Including 14 against Furman. LB Will Ebner was all over the field on Saturday, as he turned in a game-high 9 tackles. DE’s Jacquies and Aldon Smith are turning some heads with his play through 3 games.
Special Teams: Mike Ball reeled off kick returns of 48 and 50 yards, with the latter being the longest kick return by a Nevada player in two years. Brandon Wimberley’s 19-yard punt return was also the longest by a Nevada player since 2007.
Mizzou PK Tanner Mills had 5 touchbacks in 9 kickoffs. Through 3 games and 13 punts, Jake Harry has 4 boots of 50 yards or more, and has 4 punts which have landed inside the opponent’s 20-yardline. Grant Russell has connected on all three of his field goal attempts (6-6) and is a perfect14-for-14 on extra-point attempts on the year.
Trends:
MISSOURI is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
NEVADA is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games.
MISSOURI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.
MISSOURI is 1-0 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last three seasons
Over is 10-3 in MISOU last 13 road games.
Over is 10-3 in MISOU last 13 road games.
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last three seasons
Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Nevada (0-2 SU and ATS)
Missouri will try to wrap up a perfect non-conference season for the fourth straight year when it travels to Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nev., for a matchup with the winless Wolf Pack.
The Tigers crushed Furman 52-12 on Saturday in a non-lined home game. QB Blaine Gabbert did the damage on offense, throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, finding WR Jared Perry seven times for 161 yards and two scores. The defense limited Furman to 93 rushing yards on 34 carries, but it did allow 305 passing yards.
Gabbert has been extremely efficient for Gary Pinkel’s squad, completing 68 percent of his throws with eight TDs and no INTs. He leads an offense that’s putting up 38.7 points and 440 yards per contest, while the defense has been just as strong (13.7 ppg, 347.7 ypg).
Nevada has opened the season with two tough road losses, falling at Notre Dame 35-0 in the season opener as a 14½-point pup and then dropping a 35-20 loss at Colorado State on Saturday as a 3½-point chalk. Dating to last season, the Wolf Pack have lost four of five overall (0-5 ATS).
Chris Ault’s team has committed eight turnovers this season without forcing one and the offense has not gotten on track, despite returning WAC offensive player of the year Colin Kaepernick at QB and the conference’s leading rusher in Vai Taua. Defensively, the Wolf Pack have allowed six touchdowns of 25 yards or more already this season and opponents are completing 68.3 percent of their passes against Nevada, with seven TD strikes.
These teams met in Missouri last year with the Tigers clobbering Nevada 69-17, easily covering the 26-point spread.
Missouri comes into this one just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on ATS runs of 6-1 as a road favorite, 7-2 in September, 10-3 on the road, 11-4 in non-conference action, 6-1 in non-conference roadies and 11-0 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Nevada is in pointspread slumps of 1-5 as a ‘dog, 1-4 in September and 1-6 in non-conference games, but the Pack are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games in Reno.
The Tigers have topped the total in 10 of their last 13 roadies and six of seven as a road favorite, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-1 after an ATS win and 4-0 in non-conference action. Meanwhile, Nevada is on “over” stretches of 4-2 overall, 3-1 at home and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Finally, last year’s meeting in Columbia easily soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
Gametimepicks.com
What bettors need to know: Missouri at Nevada
By Lee Kostroski
Missouri Tigers at Nevada Wolf Pack (+7, 61)
Are you for real?
A lot of people expected Missouri to take a giant step back after losing a number of key players from last year’s 10-4 team. They lost their schools all-time leading passer, their All-American WR, and Mackey Award winning TE. They also lost seven All-Big 12 players on the defensive side of the ball.
Despite all of the personnel losses, Missouri is off to a 3-0 start. Of course the Tigers have played a fairly easy schedule with wins against Illinois, Bowling Green and Furman.
Friday’s road date at Nevada should give us a better idea of just how good Mizzou is this year.
Desperation time
Nevada had high hopes entering the season. They returned a bevy of starters from a year ago and had, what looked like, a pretty favorable schedule. But the Wolf Pack are 0-2 to start the season after losing two road games to Notre Dame and Colorado State.
The Wolf Pack allowed 69 points and 651 total yards in a loss at Missouri last year and were thoroughly embarrassed. The Tigers could be vulnerable in their first road test of the season and it’s a great opportunity for Nevada, with a national audience, to pull off the upset.
Nevada usually offers value when playing in Reno (19-8 ATS at home since 2004) and this is the team’s first home game of the season. If the Pack get on track and start a winning streak, their final game versus Boise State could determine the WAC Champion.
Quarterback sneak
Blaine Gabbert was named the starter to replace Chase Daniel at Missouri and he started the season right where Daniel left off. The sophomore has completed over 68 percent of his passes for 747 yards and eight touchdowns with no picks. He has also rushed for 95 yards and 2 scores. Again, Missouri hasn’t played any top tier defenses so far, but those are still impressive numbers.
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick was last year’s WAC offensive player of the year, throwing for 22 touchdowns and rushing for 17 more. He’s got off to a slow start, throwing for just one touchdown against four interceptions. The success of Nevada rides on his shoulders and the team needs him to get on track.
Where’s the D?
Missouri has allowed 348 yards per game (242 passing/ 106 rushing). The Tigers have been opportunistic though, getting key stops and only allowing 13.7 points per game.
Nevada’s sieve-like D is allowing 440 yards per game (261 passing/ 179 rushing) and 35 points per game. The WAC team has played better opponents than Missouri and both games have been on the road.
Trends
Missouri is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite. The Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and also 7-0-1 ATS their last eight vs. current WAC teams.
Nevada is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games and 4-1 ATS in its past five Friday night games. But the Wolf Pack are just 0-4 straight up and against the spread versus the Big 12, including losses to Missouri and Texas Tech last year. They have been outscored 52-15 on average in their last three matchups against the Big 12.
Line movement
The line opened with Missouri -7.5 and the total at 59. It rose to -8 before dropping back down to -7. The total quickly rose to from 59 to 60 and is now set at 61 points.
Weather
Almost perfect playing conditions in Reno for Friday night. The forecast is clear and warm for Friday afternoon, with lows in the upper 50s/ lower 60s for later Friday night. No rain or foul weather is expected.
Tips and Trends
Missouri at Nevada
Missouri (-7, O/U 61.5): The 21st-ranked Tigers are outscoring their opposition, 116-41, in winning their first three games. The Tigers lost key skill position players, but still are averaging 38.7 points. They have been better than many thought. A big reason for Missouri’s success has been the play of sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who has been outstanding completing 68 percent of his throws for 747 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also run for two more scores. Missouri’s victories have come against Illinois, Bowling Green and Furman. Missouri is idle next week before opening Big 12 Conference play with a home game against Nebraska. The Tigers are 1-5 against the spread before facing the Cornhuskers under Gary Pinkel. Missouri has covered the spread the past 11 times it has been a favorite of being 3 ½ and 10 points. The Tigers are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 road games.
The Tigers have gone Over in 10 of their last 13 road games.
Key Injuries - Backup running back De’Vion Moore (ankle) is questionable
PROJECTED SCORE: 35
Nevada: The Wolf Pack have been terrible with a 35-0 loss to Notre Dame and a 35-20 loss to Colorado State. Now, though, Nevada gets to play its first home game and on national television. The Wolf Pack are stepping up in class again. They’ve lost the last seven times they’ve faced a foe from the top six BCS conferences. Nevada shouldn’t lack for motivation, however. Missouri dealt the Wolf Pack their worst loss of the year last season, 69-17, in Columbia. Nevada is 19-7-1 against the spread at home under Chris Ault. Bowl teams from the previous season that start off 0-2 are 10-3 against the spread in Game 3. Nevada’s well-respected quarterback Colin Kaepernick has to play better. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is just one-to-four. The Wolf Pack shouldn’t be caught off guard by Missouri’s five-receiver empty-backfield set since they run that formation, too.
Nevada is 1-6 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)