Tulsa at Tulane
By Brian Edwards
Our first edition of “Friday Night Lights” for the 2009 college football season takes us to one of the finest cities in the country – The Big Easy. That’s where Tulane will play host to Tulsa in a C-USA West showdown at the Superdome.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tulsa as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 65. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Golden Hurricane at either 13 ½ or 14 with the total at 64 ½. The Green Wave are plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).
Tulsa won its first eight games in 2008 and appeared to be a potential BCS Buster in the mold of Boise St., Utah and Hawaii in recent years. However, the Golden Hurricane lost back-to-back road games to both Arkansas and Houston, and then dropped a 27-24 decision to East Carolina in the C-USA championship game.
Nevertheless, Todd Graham’s squad finished the season with an 11-3 straight-up record and an 8-6 against-the-spread mark. Best of all, Tulsa capped the year with a 45-13 clubbing of Ball St. as a two-point favorite at the GMAC Bowl. Remember, the Cardinals went into that game with a 12-1 record.
The Golden Hurricane returns eight starters on defense and five on offense. The big loss is quarterback David Johnson, who threw for 4,059 yards and 46 touchdowns in 2008. His replacement remains a mystery, as Graham has yet to name a starter.
The candidates are junior Jacob Bower, who connected on 11-of-15 passes for 138 yards with one touchdown and one interception in limited playing time last year, and Texas transfer G.J. Kinne. Most reports are indicating that Kinne will get the starting nod and take his first collegiate snaps. He was redshirted at Texas in 2007 and sat out last year after transferring from Austin.
The Tulsa offense lost Johnson along with workhorse RB Tarrion Adams, who ran for more than 1,500 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Also, WR Brennan Marion is gone after tallying 1,112 receving yards and eight TD catches.
But a stable of backs appear poised to adequately replace Adams and let’s not forget about dynamic playmaker Damaris Johnson, who led C-USA in all-purpose yardage as a true freshman. Johnson, who had a team-high 53 receptions and 10 TD grabs in 2008, will add punt-return duties to his resume this year.
Tulane finished 2008 with a 2-10 SU record and a 5-7 ATS ledger. However, it says here that the eight-game losing streak to conclude the season was a bit misleading, at least in terms of the way we look at this year’s squad.
Keep in mind that since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Tulane’s athletics budget has been decimated. With that in mind, there’s no team in America that needs to stay healthy more than the Wave, yet they had the nation’s worst rash of injuries in ’08.
This fact wasn’t lost on Graham when he faced the media earlier this week. Graham said, “I've never seen anything quite like the injuries they faced last year. When I looked at the injury report last year, I was astounded. They lost almost 20 starters. It was unbelievable.”
Graham is referencing the next-to-last week of the regular season when Tulane came to Tulsa and took woodshed treatment. The Wave brought only 53 players on the trip and the Golden Hurricane took full advantage, cruising to a 56-7 victory as a 28 ½-point home favorite.
Look at how Bob Toledo’s team performed early in the season before injuries destroyed any hope of being competitive. When Tulane went to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 1 to face Alabama, all it did was out-yard the Crimson Tide 318-172.
’Bama had to get touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked punt to get the victory, but Toledo’s troops hooked up their backers easily as 29 ½-point road underdogs. Lest we forget, that same Alabama squad was 12-0 and No. 1 in the nation before losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
In Week 3 after East Carolina had already pulled upsets against Va. Tech and West Va., the Pirates had to rally late in the fourth quarter to capture a 28-24 win at Tulane as 12 ½-point road favorites.
The Wave responded to the ECU loss by winning back-to-back games, but then the injury bug hit. One week after rushing for 255 yards in a 24-21 loss at UTEP, RB Andre Anderson was lost for the season. He had eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three straight games before going down. Also, leading WR Jeremy Williams went down a week prior to Anderson’s injury.
The Wave returns seven starters on offense and six on defense, but they will be without a pair of starters along the defensive line Friday night. (So basically, they have just four returning starters this week.) Senior DT Reggie Scott, an honorable mention C-USA selection the last two seasons, is suspended and junior DT Oscar Ponce de Leon is out with an injury.
Tulane sophomore QB Joe Kemp is poised to make his first career start after a broken collarbone limited his playing time in 2008. As a freshman, Kemp completed 26-of-46 (57%) passes for 344 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Tulane is 4-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog in Toledo’s first two seasons. The Wave is 3-3 ATS as a home ‘dog on Toledo’s watch. Meanwhile, Tulsa is a mediocre 4-7 ATS as a road favorite during Graham’s tenure. The Golden Hurricane is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit road ‘chalk’ under Graham.
ESPN will have the telecast Friday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
After Tuesday’s practice, Toledo told TheWaveReport.com, “It was really good. I was pleased. I wasn't very happy with yesterday and I met with the team leadership and they just talked to the guys and told me it was going to be better today, and it was. It was more focused, more attention to detail."
Two weeks ago, more than two dozen Tulane players missed multiple practices with flu-like symptoms. However, all of the players were cleared at back at practice by the beginning of this week.
Iowa RB Jewel Hampton is out for the year with a torn ACL. This is a huge blow to the Hawkeyes, who lost Shonn Greene a year early to the pros following his 20-TD campaign of ‘08. Hampton, who rushed for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC last year, was poised to take over the bulk of the rushing load from Greene.
Florida LB Dustin Doe is suspended for the Charleston Southern game this Saturday.
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Marc Lawernce Play Book
Tulsa over TULANE by 14
You would think Tulsa’s 4-0 SU and ATS series mark, in which they have outscored the Green Wave, 181-49, would send us straight to the window. Throw in the fact that Tulane is a Phyllis Diller-like 2-32 ATS in their last 34 home games when they allow 35 or more points and you can see why we might not even pass go. But the truth of the matter is there are better games on the board. While there’s no denying the Golden Hurricane can light it up (44 PPG under Todd Graham), they did lose OC Gus Malzahn to Auburn and are breaking in a new QB in Jacon Bower. Yes, the hosts are just 5-13 ATS as doubledigit HD’s, but we’ll counter that with Tulsa’s 3-10-1 ATS log in its first lined game. Like the last pick in gym class, we’ll be riding the bench this afternoon in the Superdome.
The Gold Sheet
*Tulsa 45 - TULANE 24—Presence of new QB(s) no reason to expect Tulsa’s offense (more than 40 ppg & 500 ypg in each of last two seasons!) to suddenly turn tepid, not with dual-threat Texas transfer Kinne, rifle-armed jr. Bower (originally at BYU), and even elusive true frosh Beaver (spurned Michigan) all strongly contending for privilege of piloting bright Hurricane HC Graham’s juggernaut. Tulane regains top weapons RB A. Anderson & WR J. Williams after their 2008 injuries. But, after being emasculated for nearly 500 YR in LY’s meeting, tough for Green Wave defense to regain its manhood without all hands on deck.
(08-TULSA 56-Tulane 7...Ts.28-13 Ts.59/489 Tn.35/73 Tn.16/31/0/159 Ts.9/13/2/104 Ts.0 Tn.2)
(08-TULSA -28' 56-7 07-Tulsa -6' 49-25...SR: Tulsa 4-1)
The Gold Sheet Extra
TULSA at TULANE
Tulsa has won andcovered handily last 4 meetings, all by 24 points or more. Todd Graham teams have also won and covered their last 3 openers with ease (‘06 at Rice, last two years at Tulsa). Wave really faded down stretch in ‘08, dropping last 4 vs. number as well as 7 of last 9. Tulane also no covers its last 4 at home in ‘08. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on series trends.
CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS
Tulsa (-14) by 25.22 over TULANE
The computer likes the Golden Hurricane by 11+ points more than the oddsmakers. Gone are record-setting QB David Johnson (7th round NFL Draft, Pittsburgh), career rushing leader Tarrion Adams (3,651 yards), and co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (hired by Auburn). Together, they helped the Golden Hurricane average a nation's-best 569.86 yards per game, and score an average of 47.21 points. But what's to worry about? Tulane has lost all 4 CUSA games to Tulsa by at least 24 points.
Game of the day: Tulsa at Toledo
By Lee Kostroski
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (+13.5, 64)
Setting the Scene
Tulsa comes into this Week 1 Conference USA game as a heavy favorite against the Green Wave of Tulane. Tulsa defeated Tulane 56-7 last season thanks in large part to 489 yards rushing on 8.3 yards per carry.
This time around, the Golden Hurricane have more question marks on offense and could be vulnerable in this road game at the Superdome.
Tulsa has to replace its top passer, rusher and receiver from a year ago. That group includes RB Tarrion Adams, who is the school’s career rushing leader at 3,651 yards.
While Tulsa is struggling to replace a bevy of starters, Tulane has experience returning at every skill position.
The Green Wave bring back their quarterback Joe Kemp, who won the starting job last year before suffering season ending injury on a late hit vs. Houston. The Wave also return their top three running backs and three of their four top receivers.
Questions at Quarterback
Tulane enters this game in a drastically different situation than last year’s 56-7 blowout loss. While teams are allowed to travel with 70 players, Tulane was down to 53 players in that loss due to an array of injuries. One of the players out in that game was Kemp. He has again been named the starting QB for 2009 after beating out Kevin Moore and redshirt freshmen Ryan Griffin.
Kemp appeared in five games last season and completed 26-of-46 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns before suffering a broken collarbone.
While Tulane is set at the quarterback position, Tulsa has to replace one of the most productive passers in school history. David Johnson graduated after passing for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns last season.
Tulsa hasn’t announced a starting quarterback for this contest and is likely to use a three-headed monster at the position. Sophomore and former Texas transfer G.J. Kinne is expected to take the majority of the snaps while Junior Jacob Bower and Freshmen Shavodrick Beaver will also get some time.
Bower threw 15 passes last year so he has some experience. Kinne hasn’t taken a snap in 33 months dating back to his high school days. He committed to the Longhorns as one of the most decorated quarterbacks in Texas high school history before making the transfer to Tulsa.
Health Issues
Tulane suffered a “wave” of players feeling flu-like symptoms in recent weeks. After nearly 10 days of various players feeling ill and missing practices, Tulane finally got back to full strength Monday.
One concern for the Tulane staff is will that rash of sickness result in lack of preparation for Friday nights game?
“We weren't very physical with our scrimmage this past Saturday,” Tulane head coach Bob Toledo told reporters. “There was a lack of concentration and focus today and the tempo was up and down. I was disappointed and I told them we were sloppy today.”
Trends
Tulsa is 4-0 both straight up and ATS vs. Tulsa, winning by an average of 33 PPG and covering by an average of 16 PPG.
Tulsa has been a road favorite of -14 or more just nine times since 1980. It is 9-0 SU in those games but just 4-5 ATS. However, it has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been favored by two or more touchdowns away from home. It was just 2-6 ATS last year when favored on the road.
Tulane has been a poor home dog, going 4-9-1 ATS dating back to 2004. Going all the way back to 1980, the Green Wave are just 31-45-2 vs. the number when getting points at home.
Line Movements
This line opened with the Golden Hurricane favored by 14 points and has hovered around that number ever since. As of this writing, the number is mixed at Tulsa -14 and -13.5. The total opened at 63.5 and moved up to 64.5. Now it sits at 64.5 with a few 64’s mixed in.
Tulsa at Tulane
The Golden Hurricane set a school record with 11 wins last season and they’ll try to get off to another strong start when they open the season against Conference USA rival Tulane inside the Superdome in New Orleans.
Tulsa went 11-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in 2008 but lost in the C-USA championship game to East Carolina 27-24, falling as a 12½-point favorite. Tulsa bounced back in the GMAC Bowl, ripping apart Ball State 45-13 and easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Hurricane won their first eight games last season (6-1 ATS) before dropping a 30-23 decision at Arkansas as a seven-point chalk on Nov. 1.
After opening the 2008 campaign a respectable 2-2 (3-1 ATS), the Green Wave dropped their final eight contests (2-6 ATS), including embarrassing season-ending losses at Tulsa (56-7 as a 28½-point ‘dog) and at Memphis (45-6 as a 14½-point pup). Tulane lost its final six games by a combined 183 points (30.5 ppg).
Tulsa coach Todd Graham signed a new 10-year contract in the offseason, but he’s got his work cut out for him replacing QB David Johnson who threw for 47 TDs a season ago. Graham said he’s chosen a starter and he’s revealed it to his team, but wouldn’t announce it publicly. However, it’s expected that junior G.J. Kinne, a transfer from Texas, has won the job over returning junior Jacob Bower (138 yards passing in mop-up duty last season) and true freshman Shavodrick Beaver and that Kinne will get the majority of snaps tonight.
The Green Wave have managed just six wins the past two seasons under former UCLA coach Bob Toledo. RB Andre Anderson led C-USA in rushing before going down with a season-ending injury after seven games that saw him run for 864 yards and seven touchdowns. QB Joe Kemp is a redshirt sophomore who won the job in the offseason over returning starter Kevin Moore. Tulane has six starters back on a defense that was 14th in the country in pass defense.
The Golden Hurricane have won and covered each of the last four meetings with Tulane, all by 24 points or more, including a 49-25 blowout in Louisiana in 2007, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Tulsa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 September contests and has won and covered its last three season-openers. Conversely, Tulane has failed to cover in any of its last four at home and is on further ATS slides of 7-23-1 in C-USA contests, 4-10-1 as a home pup and 0-5 on Friday.
Tulsa has topped the total in seven of 10 as a road chalk, four of five in September and four of six when favored more than 10 points. Meanwhile, Tulane has stayed under the number in six of seven overall, five of six conference battles and five straight as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
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Tips and Trends
Tulsa at Tulane
Tulsa (-13.5, O/U 64): Tulsa has had the top offense in the country in each of the past two seasons. The Golden Hurricane averaged 569 yards per game in winning 11 of 14 games last year. Tulsa showed Tulane how good its offense was burying the Green Wave, 56-7, last season easily covering a 28 ½-point spread. The Golden Hurricane have yet to lose to the Green Wave since the teams began facing each other in Conference USA action, going 4-0 straight-up and against the spread with an average winning margin of 33 points. Tulsa won’t have its top passer, rusher, receiver and three offensive linemen from last year. Damarius Johnson is back. He led the Conference USA with 2,475 all-purpose yards, an average of 176.8 per game. Tulsa returns eight starters from its 78th-ranked defense. The Golden Hurricane has covered seven of their last 10 when favored by 10 ½ or more.
Tulsa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 September games.
The Golden Hurricane have failed to cover in their last 4 road contests.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 40 (Side of the Day)
Tulane: Losing 20 starters to injuries took a major toll on Tulane last year as the Green Wave won just two of its 12 games. Big things aren’t expected this season either for the Green Wave. The Conference USA media selected Tulane to finish last in the West Division. The Green Wave had trouble putting up points after losing star running back Andre’ Anderson to a season-ending shoulder injury. Anderson, a senior, was headed for a 1,000-yard rushing season, ranking fourth nationally among running backs in rushing and all-purpose yards before sustaining his injury. Tulane averaged just 16.7 points and 221 yards per game. The Green Wave surrendered an average of 34.9 points per game, giving up more than 40 points in six of their last eight games. Tulane was strong in pass defense, ranking 14th in the country allowing an average of 172 yards through the air.
Tulane is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 Conference USA games.
The Under has cashed in 6 of Tulane’s last seven games.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Reggie Scott and safety Corey Sonnier are both suspended.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Do bettors like Tulsa?
By Sportsbook.com
Coach Todd Graham has the Golden Hurricane striving for larger ambitions despite tacking up a 21-7 (13-14 ATS) record the last two seasons. Tulsa has played in the Conference USA title game the last two years and came up short on both occasions. He wants the program to revert back to 2005, when Tulsa won the inaugural C-USA championship. That goal starts tonight when they visit Tulane as 13.5-point favorites. At last check, about 85% of bettors at Sportsbook.com were siding with Tulsa.
It won’t be a simple task, since Graham has to replace a quarterback and five other offensive starters. Junior Jacob Bower has earned the inside track at quarterback, after being an understudy last season. The offensive line has to be rebuilt in order for Bower to succeed. If these elements come together quickly, Tulsa can build on its 8-3 ATS September record.
Defensively, eight players return, however, according to the coach they need to play with more conviction, after conceding 30 points or more six times last season. “Defensively, we have to get back to doing what we’ve done in the past of being successful, and that’s a relentless attitude to run to the ball and get back to a hard edge mentality defensively,” Graham said. “What we have to improve on defense is not giving away too many one play drives.”
Sportsbook.com has Tulsa as 13.5-point road favorites with total of 64 and they are just 4-7 ATS in that role under Graham.
Tulane has won six games in two years under coach Bob Toledo and everyone associated with the program understands this has to be the year to start showing positive signs. “We feel like we’ve really got to turn this thing around,” receiver Jeremy Williams told the Times-Picayune. “We’re not waiting on the future. We’ve got to do it now.”
The Green Wave welcome back seven offensive starters and redshirt sophomore Joe Kemp who won the quarterback derby. Tulane will be helped by the return of RB Andre Anderson, who was fourth in the nation in rushing and all-purpose yards when he went down to injury in game seven. They will need to score points to hang with Tulsa, however, they are just 4-10-1 ATS when getting points at home.
Tulane comes into this season with misleading defensive statistics. The Green Wave was 14th in the country in pass defense, allowing 173 yards per game. That was at least in part to surrendering 218 (5.7 yards per carry) yards per game on the ground. Senior DE Logan Kelley anchors a very experienced defensive line that must upgrade its game in 2009. Tulane is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 conference matchups.
Tulsa plays four of their first five games on the road, including the first three. It should be noted that they have failed to cover their last four road games.
Tulane is 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Golden Hurricane in C-USA action, losing by 33 points per game.
This conference clash starts at 8 Eastern on ESPN, with Tulsa 7-2-1 OVER as road chalk.
Bet this game now at Sportsbook.com and take advantage of Reduced Juice Fridays (-105).